A national title changes everything for the Baylor Bears. Forever gone is the skepticism surrounding Scott Drew's coaching ability. Gone are the accusations of nefarious recruiting tactics. Gone are the pejorative "whole wheat bread" insults (oh wait, I said that? Yikes...). But unfortunately, it's not all positive--also gone are four starters and 59% of minutes from last year's championship team (per Torvik).
And yet, Baylor remains a constant in nearly every top-10 of "Way Too Early" polls (they check in at number 9 in the Amateur Hour Hoops "rough draft" rankings). Of course, the culture Drew has built commands respect and high expectations; but for this upcoming season, the Bears' incoming recruiting class is equally as important. Luckily for Baylor, the newbies provide plenty of reasons for optimism. In particular, four-star guard Langston Love and five-star forward Kendall Brown look like day one contributors. Let's break down their games. Langston Love 247Sports Composite Ranking: 38 Height: 6'4" Weight: 190 Regarding stylistic fit, Love found the ideal school in Baylor. His adeptness at handling, slashing, and movement shooting align perfectly with Drew's offensive philosophy. The head coach will likely utilize him like another Baylor guard who left high school a bit underrated—the 2021 Most Outstanding Player, Jared Butler. During Love's final season at Montverde, he thrived in similar action to what Drew ran for Butler. For example, see the clip below from Baylor's Final Four win over Houston:
Butler fakes a screen, leaks out and uses a pindown from Johnathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (#23) to get free on the perimeter. He then drives into the paint where he finds Mark Vital (#11) on a dive for an easy bucket.
Now compare that to this possession from Montverde's lone loss on the season (a home game vs Brown's Sunrise Christian back in February):
The Eagles' Justice Williams (#11) screens for Love, who gets the ball in almost the exact same spot where Butler did in the first clip. Though Love isn't crazy explosive, he knows which angles to take, and he storms into the paint to finish over Sunrise's Zach Clemence (a heralded recruit in his own right). This clip represents the norm for the Montverde product; when it comes to fighting through contact on dribble penetration, he frequently optimizes his strength, which should make him one of the most efficient finishers in the freshman class.
But that isn't even Love's best attribute--it's his three-point shooting that should make the most immediate impact. Who could forget Baylor's impeccable spacing last season? (First nationally in team three-point percentage, per Torvik). But after losing Davion Mitchell, MaCio Teague, and the aforementioned Butler, the Bears need help replenishing that production. Butler, specifically, posted eye-popping catch-and-shoot numbers (98th percentile on spot-ups, 74th percentile off of screens, per Synergy). Harkening back to the earlier comparison, Love possesses this type of upside. With a quick release and solid base, he checks all the boxes of a prototypical sniper. He also excels at cutting on a dime, squaring his shoulders, and maintaining form when curling off a screen.
Drew will give the young guard plenty of opportunities to drain threes off of flares and pin-downs.
If there's any area for Love to improve, it's facilitating for his teammates. Montverde coach Kevin Boyle used him some as a ballhandler in PnR, but I imagine that will be where Drew seeks to develop him the most. With the addition of Arizona transfer James Akinjo, the Bears won't need Love to initiate the offense often; however, if he emerges as a secondary playmaker, Baylor can reach its lofty ceiling. Kendall Brown 247Sports Composite Ranking: 11 Height: 6'8" Weight: 205 Turning to the frontcourt, Baylor welcomes its highest-rated prospect since 2012 in the electrifying Kendall Brown. But despite his decorated pedigree, he likely comes off the bench in favor of the incumbent "4," Matthew Mayer. However, the two can play together, and he may prove too valuable for Drew to give him less than 25 minutes a night. Brown stands out an amalgamation of everything a coach looks for--he boasts springy athleticism, a top-notch feel for the game, and an always-churning motor. To see those traits in action, observe how well he moves without the ball:
With one quick plant, he leaves his defender stumbling, gifting Kennedy Chandler (#1) a free assist. It's easy to envision him executing perfectly-timed cuts to the hoop, similar to what Vital did throughout his time in Waco.
Considering how heavily Baylor's offense relies on guards creating off the dribble, Brown should be able to make opponents pay when they give extra attention to the ballhandler.
But he isn't strictly an off-ball player who needs the table set for him. This past spring at Sunrise Christian, Brown showcased a burgeoning offensive skillset, scoring in iso and out of dribble-hand-offs and expertly attacking closeouts. In the clip below, notice how he doesn't force a shot after getting IMG's Moussa Diabate (#14) in the air:
Instead, he spots Jaden Akins on the wing and delivers him an absolute dime. That's where that high-level IQ comes into play.
Finally, Brown will keep the Bears' transition game humming at an elite level (38th nationally in eFG% in transition offense, per hoop-math). He is ALWAYS ready to run the floor, whether it's off a defensive rebound, after an opponent's made basket, or off a live-ball turnover. There aren't many defenders who want to challenge him at the rim, either. On the defensive end, Brown already makes disruptive plays, jumping passing lanes and swatting shots as a help defender. But look for Drew to help him improve at guarding multiple positions. He's not bad at checking smaller, speedier players, but in Baylor's switch-everything defensive scheme, improving his lateral quickness and hip fluidity will increase his chances at staying on the court.
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The initial wave of "Way Too Early Top 25s" has passed, but as player movement has slowed down, now feels as appropriate as ever to post some rankings. But I'm gonna take a page from the playbook of my guys at Three Man Weave--this is a perfectly normally timed top 25 ballot. So we'll call it a rough draft, as rankings will surely fluctuate between now and November. But for now, there's no harm in highlighting the teams that ooze with promise.
1. Gonzaga Projected departures: Jalen Suggs (draft), Corey Kispert (draft), Joel Ayayi (draft), Aaron Cook (transfer) Pavel Zakharov (transfer), Oumar Ballo (transfer) Projected additions: Hunter Sallis, Chet Holmgren, Nolan Hickman, Kaden Perry, Rasir Bolton (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
An abysmal title game notwithstanding, Drew Time returns as the favorite for NPOY. His running mate will be number 1 recruit Chet Holmgren, whom 247Sports compares to Anthony Davis…and oddly enough, that's not preposterous! Holmgren boasts a crafty handle for a 7-footer, and he shows off expertise as a shot blocker. In addition, the Zags' LOADED guard corps will only aid the two bellwethers in the frontcourt. 2. Alabama Projected departures: Herb Jones (draft), John Petty (draft), Alex Reese (graduation), Jordan Bruner (graduation), Projected additions: JD Davison, Charles Bediako, Jusuan Holt, Nimari Burnett (transfer), Noah Gurley (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
Nate Oats has accumulated a ridiculous amount of guard depth for his third season in Tuscaloosa. The flashy Jahvon Quinerly is the favorite for SEC POTY, as he perfectly blends shot-creation and playmaking for others. Meanwhile, sophomore Josh Primo (draft decision pending) and freshman JD Davison will try to dunk on everybody. Lastly, former five-star Nimari Burnett will hope to benefit from Oats's point guard magic, as he likely assumes Quinerly's old sixth man role. 3. Kentucky Projected departures: BJ Boston (draft), Isaiah Jackson (draft), Olivier Sarr (graduation), Devin Askew (transfer), Cam'Ron Fletcher (transfer), RIP TClarke Projected additions: TyTy Washington, Daimion Collins, Kellan Grady (transfer), CJ Fredrick (transfer), Oscar Tshiebwe (transfer), Sahvir Wheeler (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
Get ready for #PortalCal. For the better part of his career, the head coach has cut his teeth on resetting every year with a new crop of freshmen—and that method has yielded a harvest of success. Now, he’s repeating that same formula, only with players who have already notched some D-1 experience. Seems like a smart strategy. After watching a dismal offense all of last season, Calipari landed two of the best shooters in the portal in Kellan Grady (Davidson) and CJ Fredrick (Iowa). Tying it all together will be TyTy Washington—one of my favorite players in the class of 2021. Washington generates his own offense but also controls the game like an old-school point guard. 4. Purdue Projected departures: Aaron Wheeler (transfer) Projected additions: Trey Kaufman, Caleb Furst
In 100 Words or Less:
Fresh off of a season where they ranked 26th in KenPom’s adjOE, Purdue should climb even higher as their freshman/redshirt-freshman classes look to make that second year leap. Matt Painter has surrounded the heralded Trevion Williams with shooters up and down the roster, and sophomore Jaden Ivey flashed the attributes of a bucket-getting lead guard late last season. 5. Ohio State Projected departures: CJ Walker (graduation), Musa Jallow (transfer) Projected additions: Jamari Wheeler (transfer), Malaki Branham
In 100 Words or Less:
The Buckeyes flaunt the most balanced roster in the country with superior depth along the perimeter and in the frontcourt. EJ Liddell headlines the team (though someone might want to tell that to Duane Washington) as a big who exhibits both strength in the paint and touch from mid-range and long distance. But opponents won’t even get a breather when he’s on the bench; the behemoth Zed Key will make his case for best sixth man in the conference during his sophomore season. 6. Villanova Projected departures: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (draft), Cole Swider (transfer) Projected additions: Jordan Longino, Trey Patterson, Nnanna Njoku
In 100 Words or Less:
Does the rest of the roster really matter as long as Jay Wright is coaching and Collin Gillespie is his point guard? (but also...it would behoove ‘Nova if Justin Moore could grow into that DiVencenzo/Mikal Bridges/Phil Booth-type of wing. Consistency seems to be the only thing preventing him from taking that next step). 7. Michigan Projected departures: Franz Wagner (draft), Isaiah Livers (draft/graduation), Chaundee Brown (draft/graduation), Mike Smith (graduation) Projected additions: Caleb Houstan, Moussa Diabate, Frankie Collins, Kobe Bufkin, Isaiah Barnes, DeVante' Jones (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
Michigan gains their strength from their front court, where a mixture of 5-star talent (Caleb Houstan, Moussa Diabate) will pair with wily vets (Brandon Johns, Hunter Dickinson). Dickinson will nab an assortment of preseason accolades, but don’t be surprised if Houstan emerges as the alpha by season’s end (his three-point stroke is WATER). Turning to the backcourt, Juwan Howard will seek to replicate the success of Mike Smith with another up-transfer: this time, DeVante’ Jones takes the reins. The former Coastal Carolina Chanticleer brings a well-rounded game and a physical style of play to Ann Arbor. 8. Duke Projected departures: Matthew Hurt (draft), DJ Steward (draft), Jordan Goldwire (transfer), Jaemyn Brakefield (transfer), Henry Coleman (transfer) Projected additions: AJ Griffin, Paolo Banchero, Trevor Keels, Jaylen Blakes, Theo John (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
Not gonna lie, I would love to use recency-bias as the grounds to boot Duke out of my top 10. But aside from last season, Coach K has a proven track record with teams toting this level of talent. Paolo Banchero exhibits perimeter skill that far surpasses most bigs in the country, and he will pair with sophomore Mark Williams to form a terrifying frontcourt. But in order to reach their lofty ceiling, sophomore guard Jeremy Roach must progress in ball security, poise, and defense. 9. Baylor Projected departures: Davion Mitchell (draft), Jared Butler (draft), MaCio Teague (draft), Mark Vital (graduation) Projected additions: Langston Love, Kendall Brown, Jeremy Sochan
In 100 Words or Less:
Ranking Baylor outside the top 5 feels disrespectful, but the reigning champs face the mountainous challenge of replacing the three primary guards from their title-winning squad. Ultimately, they should be fine—Adam Flagler projects as a quality starter, and Langston Love comes to Waco with a Montverde pedigree. But oddly enough, the biggest name—Arizona transfer James Akinjo—comes with the most uncertainty. His efficiency (or lack thereof) stands as a stark contrast to Davion Mitchell’s, and although he puts up numbers, he lacks the explosive athleticism of the prototype guard for Scott Drew’s system. Nonetheless, the enormous upgrade from Sean Miller to Drew should do him wonders. 10. Kansas Projected departures: Marcus Garrett (draft/graduation), Ochai Agbaji (projecting to stay in draft), Bryce Thompson (transfer), Tyon Grant-Foster (transfer) Projected additions: Remy Martin (transfer), Joe Yesufu (transfer), Zach Clemence, KJ Adams, Cam Martin, Bobby Pettiford
In 100 Words or Less:
Bill Self tried one season without a dominant lead guard, looked at his sub-50 offense, and said "for that reason, I'm out." So now, the head coach sojourned into the portal and came back with two options: Remy Martin (formerly of Arizona State) and Joe Yesufu (formerly of Drake). Martin posted back-to-back seasons of 19+ points per game, and Yesufu averaged 23.6 points over his last eight contests, but defensive issues probably prevent them from sharing the court much. Additionally, Martin may bear more responsibility for Arizona State's mediocrity than most folks realize, so let's temper some of the top-5 expectations. However, an imposing frontcourt will alleviate some of the backcourt's burden. 11. Arkansas Projected departures: Moses Moody (draft), Jalen Tate (graduation), Justin Smith (graduation), Desi Sills (transfer) Projected additions: Chris Lykes (transfer), Au'Diese Toney (transfer), Stanley Umude (transfer), Chance Moore
In 100 Words or Less:
No one recruits the portal better than the Muss Bus, and you gotta think he’s evilly smirking while he watches other coaches navigate through the chaos. So far, he’s landed two big names in Chris Lykes (Miami) and Au’Diese Toney (Pitt). For the average coach, mild skepticism should cloud these additions, since both put up numbers on bad, BAD teams. But Musselman has revealed himself as a sage when it comes to discovering players that fit his system. Plus, Devo Davis and JD Notae will both build off of solid first years in Fayetteville. 12. UCLA Projected departures: Johnny Juzang (projecting to stay in draft), Chris Smith (draft), Jalen Hill (retirement) Projected additions: Peyton Watson, Will McLendon, Myles Johnson (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less: Freshman Peyton Watson fits the billing of “big guard who can handle, shoot, and defend” that Mick Cronin has prioritized during his tenure at UCLA. The 6’8” wing uses his powerful first step to shake past defenders and optimizes his length to finish through contact. I won’t put Johnny Juzang-type expectations on him, but in time, he could blossom into a go-to scorer. While Watson brings the fanfare, Jaime Jaquez brings the fight. The junior forward embodies the junkyard dawg mindset that defined Cronin teams of old; but unlike Cronin teams of old, he also scores with ease and efficiency.
13. Houston Projected departures: Quentin Grimes (draft), DeJon Jarreau (draft/graduation), Justin Gorham (graduation), Brison Gresham (graduation) Projected additions: Kyler Edwards (transfer), Josh Carlton (transfer), J'Avier Francis, Ramon Walker
In 100 Words or Less: Kelvin Sampson continues to churn out talented two-way guards, as Tramon Mark and Kyler Edwards appear next in line for featured roles. Mark, entering his second year in the program, plays an awful lot like DeJon Jarreau, while ex-Red Raider Edwards possesses Quentin Grimes-Lite potential as a scorer. Also, having a full season of Fabian White will prove invaluable for the Coogs; he’s a bruiser, like the typical Sampson big, but he demonstrates more scoring versatility than the other post players on the roster.
14. Virginia Tech Projected departures: Jalen Cone (transfer), Wabissa Bede (graduation) Projected additions: Storm Murphy (transfer), Lynn Kidd (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
Mike Young runs it back with last season’s tournament team, but with one sizable change—his ol’ Wofford point guard Storm Murphy is set to join him. I first learned about Murphy back in December 2017 when he started for a Terrier squad that beat an eventual 2-seed North Carolina team. I second learned about Murphy in December 2019 when he hit 5 threes in a win over a…uhhh…very bad North Carolina team. Fresh off of First Team All-SoCon honors, Murphy will captain the Hokies alongside a nasty front line that consists of Justyn Mutts and Keve Aluma. 15. Tennessee Projected departures: Jaden Springer (draft), Keon Johnson (draft), Yves Pons (draft/graduation), EJ Anosike (graduation), Cory Walker (transfer) Projected additions: Kennedy Chandler, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, Jonas Aidoo, Jahmai Mashack, Justin Powell (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
Far too often last season, the Vols’ offense stagnated due to a lack of offensive playmaking. Determined to address that need, Rick Barnes acquired five-star point guard Kennedy Chandler, building off of Tennessee's recruiting momentum from 2020. While his diminutive stature (listed at 6’1”, 165) won’t intimidate anybody, his court vision will. Chandler showcases special passing ability and plays with a steadiness that surpasses his youth. Sharp-shooting Auburn transfer Justin Powell will pair with Chandler in the backcourt, thus relegating Santiago Vescovi to a spark-plug off the bench (which he’s better suited for). Finally, there's a TON of upside in front court with Brandon Huntley-Hatfield and Jonas Aidoo, should Barnes tire of super-senior John Fulkerson. 16. Florida State Projected departures: Scottie Barnes (draft), RaiQuan Gray (draft), Balša Koprivica (draft), MJ Walker (draft/graduation), RayQuan Evans (graduation), Nathanael Jack (transfer) Projected additions: Matthew Cleveland, Jalen Warley, John Butler, Naheem McLeod (JuCo), Caleb Mills (transfer), Cam'Ron Fletcher (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
Early departures hit the ‘Noles hard, as they unexpectedly lost both RaiQuan Gray and Balša Koprivica—either one could’ve been a dark horse All-American candidate. But still, even though those decisions dashed their top-5 hopes, Coach Ham reloaded with another crop of freakishly tall and athletic dudes; thus, Florida State will hover in the upper tier of the ACC once more. Watch out for Tanor Ngom—my early pick for the random 7-footer whom Hamilton forms into an impact player (it happens every year). 17. Texas Projected departures: Kai Jones (draft), Greg Brown (draft), Matt Coleman (draft/graduation), Jericho Sims (graduation), Royce Hamm (transfer) Projected additions: Jaylon Tyson, Devin Askew (transfer), Timmy Allen (transfer), Christian Bishop (transfer), Dylan Disu (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
New head honcho Chris Beard wasted no time in landing splashy transfers for the Longhorns, but the most crucial one may be flying under the radar: ex-Creighton Bluejay Christian Bishop. Bishop fits perfectly into Beard’s defensive philosophy—he’s a multi-positional defender who wreaks havoc guarding PnR, whether he’s hedging, trapping, or switching. Plus, Bishop is an unleashed jaguar running the floor in transition. 18. Auburn Projected departures: Sharife Cooper (draft), JT Thor (projecting to stay in draft), Jamal Johnson (transfer), Justin Powell (transfer) Projected additions: Jabari Smith, Walker Kessler (transfer), Wendell Green (transfer), Zep Jasper (transfer), Desi Sills (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
In recent years, Bruce Pearl has brought Auburn basketball to new heights with a guard-heavy system that strictly abides by the popular “pace-and-space” mantra. He rarely plays guys over 6’8”, and he mainly assigns those nominal bigs to ancillary roles. That’s what makes this season’s team so fascinating—for the first time in his career, Pearl rolls out two juggernauts in the frontcourt: top-5 freshman Jabari Smith and North Carolina transfer Walker Kessler. Both have aspirations to grow their perimeter games, but their fit at Auburn will be an interesting storyline to monitor. 19. North Carolina Projected departures: Day'Ron Sharpe (draft), Walker Kessler (transfer), Garrison Brooks (transfer) Projected additions: D'Marco Dunn, Dontrez Styles, Justin McKoy (transfer), Brady Manek (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
The Hubert Davis era begins with some uncertainty, as the longtime Roy Williams assistant assumes his first ever head coaching job. But one thing that is for sure—the roster does not lack talent. The Heels retain four out of the six players from last year’s second-ranked recruiting class. Early reports indicate that Davis plans to modernize the offense, implementing more NBA concepts and giving more freedom to stud big man Armando Bacot to play away from the basket. Also, buy stock now in the sophomore backcourt of Caleb Love and RJ Davis. 20. Indiana Projected departures: Al Durham (transfer), Armaan Franklin (transfer), Joey Brunk (transfer) Projected additions: Logan Duncomb, Tamar Bates, Xavier Johnson (transfer), Parker Stewart (transfer), Miller Kopp (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
Soon after landing the Indiana job, Mike Woodson started courting esteemed players to Bloomington—Xavier Johnson, a stat-sheet stuffer on much-maligned Pitt teams, and Tamar Bates, a highly-underrated frosh with a buttery lefty jump shot, will boost IU’s putrid perimeter scoring. But Woodson’s offseason coup de grâce was convincing All-American big man Trayce Jackson-Davis to return for his junior season. 21. Virginia Projected departures: Sam Hauser (draft/graduation), Jay Huff (draft/graduation), Tomas Woldentensae (graduation), Justin McKoy (transfer), Jabri Abdur-Rahim (transfer), Casey Morsell (transfer) Projected additions: Taine Murray, Armaan Franklin (transfer), Jayden Gardner (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
Let’s start with the obvious: Virginia’s defense will again give them one of the highest floors in the country. Now, the not-so-obvious: Virginia’s offense possesses some serious potency. Trey Murphy proved himself as an all-conference caliber player last season after transferring from Rice; former top-50 recruit Reece Beekman is in line for a breakout second year; and lastly, IU transplant Armaan Franklin will provide more consistent shooting than the Hoos could ever get out of Tomas Woldetensae (and Casey Morsell…but that fits more into the “obvious” section). 22. Memphis Projected departures: Boogie Ellis (transfer), Damion Baugh (transfer), DJ Jeffries (transfer), Moussa Cisse (transfer) Projected additions: Josh Minott, Sam Ayomide, Jonathan Lawson, Earl Timberlake (transfer), Chandler Lawson (transfer),
In 100 Words or Less:
Per Bart Torvik’s T-Rank metric, Memphis performed like a top-10 team from February through the end of the season. Landers Nolley will again star as the offense’s focal piece, and DeMatha product/Miami transfer Earl Timberlake will add even more defensive prowess to a squad that’s shown to be ferocious on that end of the court. 23. Maryland Projected departures: Darryl Morsell (draft/transfer??), Jairus Hamilton (transfer), Chol Marial (transfer), Galin Smith (graduation) Projected additions: Julian Reese, Ike Cornish, Fatts Russell (transfer), Qudus Wahab (transfer), Ian Martinez (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
Per Bart Torvik, Maryland returns 62% of their minutes from last year’s tournament team. In addition to the incumbents, the Terps also added coveted Georgetown center Qudus Wahab and sort of/kind of/slightly coveted Rhode Island gunner Fatts Russell. They should be a mainstay in the Top 25, but they'll still play ugly; I highly recommend not watching them unless you have to. 24. Michigan State Projected departures: Aaron Henry (draft), Josh Langford (graduation), Rocket Watts (transfer), Foster Loyer (transfer) Projected additions: Max Christie, Jaden Akins, Tyson Walker (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
In a stretch from January through mid-February, Michigan State scored less than 1 point per possession in 7 of 8 games. An Aaron Henry resurgence saved their season, but with his exit, it’s no wonder Tom Izzo hit the portal to find some scoring assistance. Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker is what Spartans fans hoped Rocket Watts would be—equally undersized but significantly more dynamic with the ball in his hands. Between Walker and incoming freshman Max Christie, Sparty won’t be lacking in shot-creators. 25. Oklahoma State Projected departures: Cade Cunningham (draft), Projected additions: Bryce Thompson (transfer), Woody Newton (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less:
Despite losing Cade Cunningham, Mike Boynton and the ‘Pokes return the majority of a roster that ranked 17th in KenPom’s adjDE a season ago. His defensive formula relies upon lengthy dudes who deny passes, swat shots, and create turnovers—rest assured, Avery Anderson, Kalib Boone, and Bryce Williams (projecting a return for a super senior year) will continue to bedevil Big 12 foes. Lastly, former McDonald's All-American Bryce Thompson heads south from Kansas, ready to blossom into a star. Next in line: Louisville, UConn, Oregon, LSU, Arizona Sneaky teams who could crack the top 40: Washington State, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, Nevada, Colorado State
North Carolina is not the abomination that they were last year.
...but that's an admittedly low bar to clear; they have still trekked through dark valleys this season. The Heels seem unable to play two good games in a row, as inconsistencies belie impressive performances. Numerous examples decorate their schedule--a win in Cameron Indoor, then a brick-fest in Charlottesville; an obliteration of Louisville diminished by a head-scratching loss to Marquette; a season-saving triumph over Florida State followed by a frustrating defeat at Syracuse. Mind-numbing turnovers and ice-cold shooting are their biggest pitfalls, but the Tar Heels have one more opportunity to tune-up before the Big Dance. This week’s ACC Tournament offers a chance to generate (and more importantly, to sustain) momentum. As they forge forward, I hope Roy Williams and Co. completely unleash freshman big man Walker Kessler. Kessler, a former McDonald’s All-American and five-star recruit, faced several setbacks in the early part of the season. Two separate 14-day close-contact quarantines kept him sidelined at the start of practice. His lack of reps combined with a crowded frontcourt equated to just 6 minutes per game through UNC's first 18 contests. However, with increased playing time in recent weeks, Kessler has revealed why scouts viewed him with so much promise heading into the season. In this post, I’ll analyze his contributions on both defense and offense. Defense: In my opinion, Kessler most affects the game with his smothering defense. His length gives UNC a true rim protector, and he boasts enough agility to competently guard on the perimeter. But perhaps most crucial is his proficiency versus pick-and-roll. At points this season, the Heels have looked clueless while trying to stop ball screens. Sometimes they hard hedge with a big, sometimes they double-team the ballhandler, sometimes they switch--and a lot of times they miscommunicate. A December loss at NC State stands out as their nadir in atrocious ball screen defense. Below, RJ Davis and Garrison Brooks botch whatever their plan was. Brooks fails to hedge after Davis gets stuck on the screen, leading Leaky Black to help off of Devon Daniels. Braxton Beverly immediately notices the breakdown and kicks out to Daniels for an open three.
So you might think, “okay, that was all the way back in December...surely things have improved.” Well, yes, but crafty guards still find success both slashing and creating off of picks. In the next clip, Marquette's Koby McEwen rejects Theo John’s screen, but still beats Anthony Harris off the dribble. Armando Bacot falters in his help defense, which leads RJ Davis to leave his man. McEwen then pinpoints a pass into the waiting hands of Symir Torrence, who promptly drains one from distance. Now, here is where Kessler patches up the wounds: For one, he excels at playing drop coverage against ball screens--this simultaneously takes away shots at the basket and allows help defenders to stay on shooters. In the following clip, Kessler quickly diagnoses Florida State’s double screen; from there, he cuts off RayQuan Evans’ driving lane, then swiftly recovers onto Balša Koprivica. His recovery negates the need for help from Kerwin Walton, who sticks with Anthony Polite, a plus shooter. Later in that same game, the smaller, speedier MJ Walker challenges Kessler, who again sits in drop coverage. That plan backfires, as the big man uses his otherworldly wingspan to erase Walker’s shot.
(apologies for the annoying ESPN split screen)
One last possession from that game showcases Kessler's knack for disruption. The 'Noles once more test him in pick-and-roll with the monstrous Koprivica as the screener. But Kessler times the pass perfectly, breaking it up like Antoine Winfield, Jr. in the Super Bowl. After surveying his skillset, it’s easy to envision Kessler blossoming into one of the best interior defenders in the country--this youthful Carolina team already turn to him as a security blanket on that side of the ball. Offense: On offense, Kessler's polished footwork and soft touch complement his size. Again, in his statement game versus Florida State, he displayed the full extent of his potential. In the clip below, he stays light on his feet to spin out of Scottie Barnes’ reach (and MJ Walker makes a business decision by getting out of the way). Kessler mainly scores around the basket and on put-backs (his 19% offensive rebounding rate would lead the country if he had logged enough minutes); but later in the contest against the 'Noles, he flashed the ability to put the ball on the deck--here, Kerwin Walton and RJ Davis clear out, freeing him up to beat Malik Osborne off the bounce: Moving to the transition game, Kessler runs the floor with the relentlessness that Roy Williams demands--this one is just textbook. And finally, he showed off that aforementioned touch in this past weekend’s blowout win over Duke. Not even the Blue Devils’ colossus Mark Williams could force a miss on this silky hook shot: Some may accuse me of wearing blue-and-argyle-tinted glasses (and they may be right), but I truly think this kid can be the ACC Player of the Year in 2022. But here's to hoping his emergence fuels a run for the Heels this March. |
AuthorRiley Davis Archives
June 2021
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Photo used under Creative Commons from MarsInOrbit