We still have little certainty that teams will play college basketball this year; but my hope will not die, so I decided to take a look at some incoming freshmen flying a little under the radar. History tells us that very few Zions, Lonzos, Anthony Davises, and KDs exist--as in the type of guys that step foot on campus and eviscerate their opponents, needing almost no time to adjust to the competition level. But not every freshmen needs to be an alpha for his team. Some need to be second or third bananas, while some need to be 15 minute energy guys off the bench. I've watched an inordinate amount of high school hoops during quarantine--so I want to highlight five players that may not rack up All-American level stats but can still fill important roles for top 25 teams.
Nimari Burnett - Texas Tech
247Sports Composite Ranking: #37; 247Sports Ranking: #33
Burnett, a combo guard out of Chicago, boasts a well-rounded offensive game that makes him capable of filling any needs on the perimeter. One of his best skills will help patch the biggest crack on this year's Texas Tech squad: shooting. With the departures of Davide Morretti and Jah'Mius Ramsey, Texas Tech longs for another guard who can space the floor alongside junior Kyler Edwards. Burnett can fill that void. Although his form is a little inconsistent, he confidently knocks down three pointers off the bounce and off the catch. Equipped with a high release, his shot clears the outstretched arms of both on-ball defenders and defenders closing out. But the big-bodied Burnett also shines when attacking the basket. When he gets into the paint, he bears some similarities to former Texas Tech star Jarrett Culver. Like Culver, he lacks eye-popping vertical burst, but he accelerates to the cup with a strong first step; and his long frame (6'4" height, 6'10" wingspan) enables him to finish through towering paint-protectors. At this point, he appears to be most comfortable as a straight-line driver, but I expect that aspect of his game to expand as the season progresses. Even with his scoring chops, I think Burnett's passing ability will distinguish him from other guards that have sojourned through Lubbock. In transition, he envisions where his teammates will be, and he senses the most opportune time to get them the ball. In the half-court, he commands attention with his scoring versatility, which opens up looks for shooters in the corner. On the dribble-drive, he can deliver kick-outs from either hand, although he is still getting comfortable passing off of his left. Per 247Sports' recruiting composite, Burnett's ranking peaked at 22nd nationally last summer. Thus, I'm led to believe he dropped partly because of the enrollment of Jalen Green at Prolific Prep this past season. A projected top-3 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, Green thrives with the rock in his hand, which lessened Burnett's role. However, his willingness to play off-ball will assist him at Texas Tech, especially as he (likely) shares the court with the ball-dominant Georgetown transfer, Mac McClung. Yet I'd be remiss if I didn't express my hope that Beard lets him lead the flock while everyone else falls in line. Because even though his name is Burnett, he's more of a Grey Goose. Realistic per-game projections: 14 points (on 42/35/75 splits), 4 assists, 3 rebounds Aggressive per-game projections: 16 points (on 45/36/80 splits), 4.5 assists, 4 rebounds Jaemyn Brakefield - Duke
247Sports Composite Ranking: #40; 247Sports Ranking: #51
Here's how Duke ranked nationally in three-point percentage from 2013-2016: 7th, 11th, 25th, 23rd Here's how Duke ranked nationally in three-point percentage from 2017-2020: 53rd, 69th, 326th (!!!), 69th Moreover, Duke lost 58% of last season's mediocre three-point production due to graduation, the NBA draft, and the transfer portal. No returner on their roster made more than 42 threes last season...and the guy who made those 42 threes (Matthew Hurt) often got played off the court in ACC play due to one-dimensional offense and nonexistent defense. Brakefield can immediately alleviate some of the pain of Duke's departures with his catch-and-shoot acumen; but he also possesses enough supplemental skills to handle a heavy minute share. Brakefield is still a little unrefined in getting to the rim--for example, he's only comfortable driving to the right (despite being a lefty) and he can be a bit careless with his dribble. Yet he's a rangy 6'8" forward with excellent quickness and body control. At the very least, he should be able to attack closeouts against ACC foes in year one. But Brakefield's best attributes surface on the fast break. With his rebounding and his handle, he can grab and go; but he also bursts free for outlet passes, often finishing with a volcanic eruption of a dunk. And those skills will be maximized playing alongside fellow freshman forward Jalen Johnson, who has gained notoriety for his open-court passing wizardry. With the two of them running the break, I see some potential for an RJ-Zion Lite transition game. The biggest questions surrounding Brakefield involve his defense and motor. On numerous occasions in high school, he seemed to have zero interest in guarding his man on the perimeter. His length and foot speed tell me he can be an adequate defender, but I think it ultimately comes down to desire and coaching (I know that sounds cliche, but in this case it's true). Duke's staff has already addressed his defense, so we'll see how that causes him to push himself. Because if he improves on that end of the floor, there's a real possibility he takes Wendell Moore's starting spot in the rotation. Realistic per-game projections: 8 points (on 44/34/75 splits), 4 rebounds, 1.5 assists Aggressive per-game projections: 12.5 points (on 45/36/80 splits), 5.5 rebounds, 2 assists KK Robinson - Arkansas
247Sports Composite Ranking: #59; 247Sports Ranking: #39
Checking in at just 6 feet and 175 pounds, KK Robinson doesn’t fit the physical profile of a typical impact freshman. But height shouldn't hinder him as he integrates into an offense that perfectly plays to his strengths. His new head coach Eric Musselman (entering his second year at Arkansas) is an offensive savant who excels at scheming around his players. With KK in the mix, he shouldn't have to adjust his foundational approach too much. Although Musselman's teams don't always move at a breakneck speed, they capably push tempo (45th in pace per KenPom last season). Don't be surprised to see them to run even more this year, as Robinson's dizzying combination of speed and shiftiness allows him to weave through defenders in transition. But when the game slows down, Musselman has instilled in his team a certain level of patience that would make Axl Rose weep. His guards frequently make the extra pass, trusting their teammates to get open. While Robinson's passing isn't yet a major advantage, he can still get in the lane and find baseline cutters (which was a large component of Arkansas' halfcourt offense last year). Robinson will team up with two other dynamic guards who can play both on and off ball--junior Isaiah Joe and top-50 freshman Moses Moody. Though Robinson likely earns the nominal starting point guard role, both Joe and Moody can initiate the offense. That will free him to run off screens, where he'll bury catch-and-shoot threes. His left-handed jump shot is gorgeous (I find something about lefty jumpers so aesthetically pleasing...that probably plays into my optimism regarding Brakefield as well), and he can hit them while off balance. But when Robinson is running the point, he'll also pull-up up from beyond the arc so quickly that an unengaged defender won't have time to get a hand up. Regarding defense, he may struggle some with stronger guards, yet he'll still get up in his opponent's grill. In time, he could imitate the style of other smaller defensive dynamos like Kihei Clark and Ashton Hagans--especially since he'll pressure guards full court and use his long arms to snatch up steals. Lastly, at Oak Hill this past season, he played in one of my favorite Jordan silhouettes--the Tuexdo 11s. If you don't think sneakers are a marker of a good player, you're lying to yourself. Realistic per-game projections: 10 points (on 40/35/80 splits), 3.5 assists, 2.5 rebounds Aggressive per-game projections: 14 points (on 43/38/80 splits), 3.5 assists, 3 rebounds Dain Dainja - Baylor
247Sports Composite Ranking: #81; 247Sports Ranking: #95
Okay, this one is admittedly more for fun, as I'm not as bullish on Dainja as the other prospects. But listen: 1. His name is DAIN DAINJA 2. He is HEFTY 3. And he has moves like this: His frame may look like Mark Vital's, but his game more resembles Matthew Mayer's. And much like Mayer did for Baylor last season, I foresee Dainja providing the Bears with instant offense off the bench this year. At the high school level, the big man showed off rare handles and footwork for someone his size--crossovers, step-backs, between-the-leg dribbles into pull-up jumpers, and spin moves whiles slashing through the lane are all staples of his perimeter game. He's a smooth passer out of the high post, and he has a legitimate three-point shot. Strength and athleticism seem to be the two biggest roadblocks to him cracking the starting lineup as a freshman. For example, in high school, Minnehaha's Chet Holmgren stifled him in the post, repeatedly frustrating Dainja with his defense. Now, Holmgren is a baller in his own right--he's the 2nd ranked player in the class of 2021--but he also listed at 7-foot, 190, which seems to be very very generous in the weight department. Thus, Dainja's inability to leverage his size against him raises some concern. Still, he should play 15-20 minutes a game, and will undoubtedly have some big scoring outbursts. I just hope that whenever we have fans in arenas again that Baylor capitalizes by playing "Highway to the Danger Zone" anytime he makes an impactful play. Realistic per-game projections: 5 points (on 45/33/70 splits), 5 rebounds, 1 assist Aggressive per-game projections: 9 points (on 48/37/75 splits), 7 rebounds, 1.5 assists Coleman Hawkins - Illinois
247Sports Composite Ranking: #148; 247Sports Ranking: Not Ranked
Hawkins is this class's example of serendipity--I stumbled upon him while watching the aforementioned Nimari Burnett and Jalen Green at Prolific Prep. But as I was looking to analyze his high-profile teammates, I kept noticing his propensity to do all the cliche basketball things well: he's always in the right place, he plays unselfishly, he rarely takes bad shots, and he competes hard. Thank you for attending my TED Talk on coach speak. Platitudes notwithstanding, here's an instance of his incredible feel for the game:
Yes, all these traits will get Hawkins on the floor; but I think his three-point shooting will keep him on the floor. At 6'10" with long arms, Hawkins should immediately translate as a pick-and-pop threat. He's elite on catch-and-shoot threes, but he also showed some ability to shoot off the bounce at Prolific Prep. Maybe that skill develops at the collegiate level. Every time I watch Hawkins, I find myself questioning more and more how he only has three stars next to his name. He didn't even crack 247Sports top 150! After much deliberation, here are my two hypotheses: 1. Gonna put my posture-doctor hat on for this one--his shoulders are kind of hunched, almost like someone who has spent too much time playing video games. Perhaps scouts knock him for this apparent upper-body tightness? 2. He's rail thin (listed at 195 pounds). This probably affects how scouts view his defensive upside and impact. That's it. Yet he's playing for an Illinois team that shot 30.3% from three last season (310th in the nation) and whose best shooter (Alan Griffin) transferred to Syracuse. Something tells me that pure stroke will triumph over these potential concerns. Realistic per-game projections: 6 points (on 45/36/80 splits), 5 rebounds, 1 assist Aggressive per-game projections: 10 points (on 46/39/82 splits), 6 rebounds, 1.5 assists Honorable Mentions: #15: Jaden Springer - G, Tennessee (an already high ranking, but I think he could be a top 5 draft pick) #38: Matthew Murrell - G, Ole Miss #46: RJ Davis - G, North Carolina #75: Isaiah Cottrell - F, West Virginia #79: Jaden Ivey - G, Purdue
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AuthorRiley Davis Archives
June 2021
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