Follow the new Amateur Hour Twitter page for all my CBB takes throughout the season!
Click here for part one, here for part two, and here for part three. Teams 10-6: 10. Ohio State Kicking off my Top 10 is (the? this? that? which?) Ohio State University! I must admit, this feels a little high for Buckeyes. If you look back at their game log from a season ago, you’ll notice some head scratchers--I forgot that they lost to Rutgers, squeaked by a bad Indiana team in a 55-52 snoozer, and got blown out by NORTHWESTERN in late March. All I really remembered was them beating a good Iowa State team in the first round of the Big Dance. Despite an up and down 2019, several factors point to the Buckeyes materializing into a monstrous unit this year. Their roster composition looks nearly identical to Louisville's (i.e. a conference Player of the Year contender, some fantastic role players, and a top 15 recruiting class). And considering that I've seen the Cards as high as number 2 in some polls, I'm sticking by my belief in Ohio State. We’ll break down those three factors, starting with Big Ten Player of the Year hopeful Kaleb Wesson. Head coach Chris Holtmann runs his offense through the junior center; Wesson broke out last season, averaging 14.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, and earning an All-Big Ten Honorable Mention. As a 6’9” 270 pound big man, you might expect him to just bash opponents down low with his density and strength. However, his game exudes both precision and gracefulness. He finesses his defender with fleet footwork in the post, and he displays touch in both his hook shot and his three point jumper (26 makes at a near 35% clip last season). Moreover, his gorgeous passing out of the post opens up the offense for his teammates. Wesson means everything to his team. For proof, he served a three game suspension last season for a violation of team rules--and Ohio State went 0-3 during that stretch (including that eyesore at Northwestern). But with old mistakes in the past, I project him as an All-American this year. Regarding their role players, 6’6” senior wing Andre Wesson (Kaleb’s brother), 6'1" redshirt-junior guard CJ Walker, and 6’3” sophomore guard Luther Muhammad will provide valuable minutes on both ends of the floor. Though he lacks the star-power of his brother, Andre can play and defend either forward spot, and he can knock down open threes. Walker, a Florida State transfer, functioned as a steady hand who occasionally erupted for big scoring outputs during his sophomore year in Tallahassee--a 17 point game versus Florida and and an 18 point game against UNC highlight his resume. Early reports suggest he will open the season as the starting point guard. But out of this group, I think Muhammad has the best chance to evolve into something more than a "glue guy." His rangy frame and superb lateral mobility made him a distinguished defender, even as a freshman. With active hands, he picks pockets when he's on-ball and prowls the passing lanes when he's off-ball (notched a career-high seven steals versus Michigan State). I believe he can elevate Ohio State to a top 10 defense nationally (ranked 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency in KenPom’s preseason poll). On offense, he has a silky three-point shot, and he comfortably creates for himself with a crafty crossover. But he does need to improve from close range--he only shot 37% on two-point attempts last year. Lastly, Holtmann brings in the 14th-ranked class in the nation, per 247Sports. A trio of four-stars highlight the class in 6'1" point guard DJ Carton (34th in 247Sports' recruiting composite), 6'6" forward EJ Liddell (44th), and 6'9" forward Alonzo Gaffney (50th). Carton intrigues me the most, as he could feasibly usurp the starting role from Walker. He profiles as a defensive bulldog with serious bounce for a guy his height. On paper, Chris Holtmann has one of the ten best rosters in the country on his hands. As one of the best up-and-coming coaches in the game, I trust him to turn the hypothetical into the high-level. Which makes me ask...could Ohio State make the Final Four in two sports this year? 9. Texas Tech My dad is the least-Texan Texan I have ever met. He grew up in Dallas, but is not a Cowboys fan; he cares neither for brisket or for Texas chili; and he would never own a gun or cowboy boots. But he has educated me on the history of college sports in the Lone Star State. His father taught law at SMU, so he grew up a huge fan of the Mustangs and a huge hater of the big boys—the University of Texas and Texas A&M. However, he tells me he had a soft spot for Texas Tech, as they always bore the pseudo-endearing but really more demeaning “underdog” label. But after years of watching the “older brothers” make splashy coaching hires and land highly-touted recruits, Texas Tech now plays the role of the Don. Vito Corleone famously said “revenge is a dish best served cold”--and now the state of Texas (and the rest of Big 12) stands at the mercy of Chris Beard’s revenge tour. Let's look at his roster. In the spirit of the Corleone family, junior guard Davide Moretti assassinates his foes with his limitless range. He shot an absurd 45.9% from beyond the arc last season. He pulls threes off the catch. He pulls threes off the dribble. He pulls threes in transition. It doesn't matter how well you contest a shot--he will still mercilessly snatch your soul. Poor Alex Robinson (#25 for TCU) can do nothing other than throw his hands up in exasperation. After leading the Big 12 in offensive rating during conference games last season, the Italian import will up his usage in Beard's motion offense. More than just a three-point specialist, Morretti commands attention in the mid-range and on the dribble-drive, which frees up cutters in the lane. He excels at pinpointing passes to the open man, creating easy layups. Sophomore guard Kyler Edwards and freshman guard Jahmi'us Ramsey will partner with Moretti on the perimeter. Edwards projects to significantly increase his minutes from 17.8 per game a season ago. Already an excellent defender, he will hope to sustain his 44.9% three-point shooting while also increasing his efficiency from inside the arc. After witnessing what Beard has done with guards in their sophomore seasons (see: Culver, Jarrett), I'm willing to bet on Edwards' progression. Ramsey is probably the non-UNC player I'm most excited to watch. He's a 6'4" combo guard who looks like he actually takes weightlifting seriously. A supreme athlete with impressive body control, the freshman from Duncanville, TX, flourishes when he attacks the basket. His jumper looks smooth and he has all the tools to be an on-ball menace defensively. Between losing Culver and grad-transfer Matt Mooney, the Red Raiders must replace a lot of scoring on the perimeter--his skillset plus his opportunity makes Ramsey my leading Coby White Candidate (go back and read part 3 if you don't know what that is). The Morretti-Ramsey backcourt pairing brims with the potential to be among the most powerful in the country. On the other side of the ball, Texas Tech is the new Virginia--with Beard in charge, their defense will rank top 5 nationally, regardless of the pieces. In his three seasons in Lubbock, the Red Raiders have placed 56th, 4th, and 1st in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Much of their success results from discipline in defensive rotations. On baseline drives, the help defender perfectly times when to aid the on-ball defender. It's like Tech's players have a sixth-sense/Spidey-sense/tracking mechanism that enables them to know exactly where the opposing ballhander will go. In Beard's scheme, the Red Raiders also switch on every screen; and again, this requires discipline. The players preemptively sniff out screens, and by simply communicating (plus, you know, athleticism), the defense stifles the other team's plays before they unfold. Lastly, Texas Tech forces the opposition off of the three-point line, eliminating the long ball threat. Their challengers only converted 29.7% of their three-point attempts last season, the 12th lowest percentage in the country. Beard does face a difficult task in replacing big man Tariq Owens, who led the nation in defensive box plus/minus and was second in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. An intimidating, shot-demolisher cannot currently be found on Texas Tech's roster--on paper, at least. Stephen F. Austin transfer TJ Holyfield posted the best defensive rating in the Southland Conference during his last healthy season (2017-18); but we'll see how he does moving up to the Big 12. His partner in the frontcourt, Virginia Tech transfer Chris Clarke poses mismatches offensively with his three-point shooting, yet at 6'6", he may struggle defending the interior against more stout and/or portly big men. Losing so much from last season, Texas Tech will inevitably experience some hiccups. However, if we did a fantasy dynasty draft of all the college coaches (to the folks who don't engage in fantasy sports: imagine you're starting a program and you'll be running this program for 10+ years), Beard would go #1 overall. As I've said a million times in these rankings, coaches matter. 8. Louisville Here's a cross-sports reference that will resonate with all of my readers from North Carolina: remember in January 2009 when Carolina Panthers' QB Jake Delhomme threw five interceptions in a playoff game against the Arizona Cardinals? I vividly recall watching that game, but I forgot about this little factoid: somehow, he still got a five-year contract that offseason. Anyway, after his catastrophe in the Queen City, he was never the same quarterback again. One game into the following season, the coaching staff benched him in favor of Josh McCown (there will always be a team somewhere that employs a McCown brother as a backup quarterback), and the organization released him at the season's end. Delhomme's debacle in 2009 looked a lot like Louisville's lethargy a decade later. Yes, the Cardinals surprised the nation last season, starting out 17-7, and rising as high as 16th in the AP Poll and 13th in KenPom's rankings. But on February 12th, everything changed. The #2-ranked Duke Blue Devils ventured into the Yum! Center, and at first, Louisville ran them out of the gym. They controlled Duke like they had Coach K tied to marionette strings. A seven point lead became a 15 point lead which ballooned into a 23 point lead with just nine minutes to play. Then, their moxie, their swagger, and most notably, their on-court competence blew up into smithereens. Turnover. Brick. Turnover. Brick. Turnover. Brick. Duke rallied and came back, notching a two-point win. Including that loss, Chris Mack and his squad went 3-7 over their last ten games. The slide culminated in a beatdown at the hands of an inferior Minnesota team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. So now, washed clean of last year's bad juju, can the Cards rebound? Most pundits have pegged Louisville as a top 10 team, some even top 5. As I noted in my Ohio State blurb, they boast a conference player of the year candidate (junior Jordan Nwora), solid role players on the wing (redshirt-senior Dwayne Sutton) and in the post (junior Malik Williams, and redshirt-senior Steven Enoch), and the nation's 12th ranked recruiting class. But here's why I'm a little lower on the Cardinals than consensus: first, Louisville has a handful of questions at the point guard position. After losing Christen Cunningham to graduation, Mack secured a commitment from St. Joe's transfer Lamarr "Fresh" Kimble to run his offense. Theoretically, Fresh is an upgrade over Cunningham; he confidently fires off the dribble and gets to the cup with a variety of crossovers and hesitation moves. However, his shooting numbers are not efficient (38% from the field, 32% from three for his career), and his durability raises some serious concerns. He missed ten games last season, all but one game his junior year, and nine games as sophomore. I'm wary of trusting injury-prone smaller guards, and he's listed at just 6'0". If he misses any time, freshman David Johnson (ranked 82nd in 247Sports' recruiting composite) will fill in as a starter...the only problem is, a nagging shoulder ailment plagued him all offseason. In addition to uncertainty around their lead guard, there's also a slight chance that Louisville is closer to the team that cratered down the stretch than the emerging ACC juggernaut some anticipate. They return six players from last year's roster, but this does not always ensure significant progress--especially when the returnees are juniors, seniors, and redshirt-seniors. But all that might be a little nitpicky. Because Jordan Nwora is 100% Nworth all the hype. The media voted him as preseason ACC Player of the Year based on his phenomenal junior season. Mack manly uses him as a small-ball "4," where he torments more flat-footed forwards with his strength, agility, and long-range shot. He will once again take on the bulk of the scoring duties while also stymying opposing wings on defense. Lastly, McDonald's All-American Samuell Williamson could blossom into the perfect Nwingman for Nwora (there's two silent "n" jokes for you). The late Phife Dawg once rapped "Cuz I got the crazy game, and yo, I'm smooth like butter / Butter, like butter, baby / Butter like butter, baby," and I believe these lyrics also adequately describe Williamson's crazy game. The freshman out of Texas (ranked 16th in 247Sports' recruiting composite) uses his high release to shoot over defenders both from midrange and from distance. With the Cards converting a pedestrian 34.2% of their three-point attempts a season ago, Williamson's shotmaking should immediately improve their offense. Louisville has the coaching, talent, and experience to shed the timidity that submarined them last year. Can they instead match the ferocity of the other Cardinals that stomped out the remaining embers of Jake Delhomme's career? 7. Gonzaga In each of the last three seasons, the Zags have legitimately been good enough to win the title. They finished second in KenPom's rankings in 2019, tenth in 2018, and first in 2017 (hehe); yet all the algorithms and analytics in the world can't materialize into a championship banner. But I think two possibilities can be ascertained from this three-year stretch: either their championship window has closed for the time being or they are a year-in year-out power who deserves respect and the benefit of the doubt. If you couldn't tell by my ranking, I lean towards the latter. Even after losing six of the top nine guys in their rotation, I trust Mark Few to reconfigure this roster. Whether he features freshmen, transfers or some combination of both, he knows how to develop players into first-round draft picks and All-Americans. Gonzaga overflows with options in the frontcourt for their head coach to mold. The depth and versatility of their big men provide an advantage that few teams can match. Sophomore Filip Petrusev and senior Killian Tillie move into starting roles, and will mollify any fears of replacing Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke. Both will run the floor in Gonzaga's uptempo offense, and both can make a play as a trailer on the fast break. Last season, Petrusev impressed while coming off the bench. A decent shooter with the athleticism to attack closeouts, he should shine as a primary contributor. Tillie, on the other hand, launches threes with one of the purest shooting strokes you'll ever see from a big man (47% from deep for his career). His skillset adds a new edge to Few's ball screen-laden offense. With Tillie posted in the corner, his defender must stick to him instead of helping contain the dribble-drive opportunity that a ball screen creates. The defense's dilemma yields either an easy lay-up for Gonzaga's ballhandler or an open three for the French forward. But the 6'10" senior isn't one-dimensional; he plays above the rim, can score in the low post, and also offers some rim protection. Three four-star recruits will fill out the front line. Drew Timme (43rd in 247Sports' recruiting composite), Pavel Zakharov (60th), and Oumar Ballo (78th) all stand at 6'10" and could all carve out some sort of role this season. Timme possesses the most decorated pedigree (and he holds back his luscious locks with a headband...that's grade-A accessory usage); however, I think Zakharov will actually earn more minutes. His stature, as of now, kind of resembles a Q-tip, but I think he offers immediate value as a rim-runner who can catch lobs in transition. In the backcourt, some uncertainties obscure the Zags' outlook. Through the transfer wire, Few took care of the off-guard position. The stat-sheet-stuffing Admon Gilder will play his last season in Spokane, after spending three years prior in College Station at Texas A&M. He averaged 13 points, 3.3 assists, and 4 rebounds over his last two seasons for the Aggies. With the ability to both post up and shoot off of screens, Gilder brings a scoring boost to the perimeter. He also helped lead A&M to a Sweet 16 appearance in 2018, so his experience should aid the younger team. But a big question remains: who will take over the lead guard role from the graduated Josh Perkins? Another transfer, Ryan Woolridge treks out west from North Texas. The former All-Conference USA teamer will compete for the starting role with three-star freshman Brock Ravet (a local kid whose name sounds like a type of lettuce) and sophomore Joel Ayayi (who didn't see many minutes last year). While this must be a little bit unsettling for Gonzaga fans, I trust the infrastructure in place for one to emerge. 6. Duke As a whole, my thoughts on Duke haven't changed much since I wrote this little piece back in June. Can they defend? Can they hit threes? Those two questions have nagged at Duke in every season following their 2015 National Championship. Judging by their nail-biting exhibition game against Division-II Northwest Missouri State, these doubts may have already resurfaced! Okay, I'm not that much of a troll. I mean, I have the Blue Devils ranked 6th in the country, after all. And it (as usual) starts with their third-ranked recruiting class. The piece de resistance of the group, forward/center Vernon Carey, will likely lead the team in scoring. He cashes in on a variety of post moves and dunks, and he even showed the ability to take a rebound coast-to-coast on the AAU circuit. As we saw with Jahlil Okafor and Marvin Bagley, Coach K can still operate with a more traditional post player, and I think Carey will have a similar impact to those two on offense. Fellow top ten recruit Matthew Hurt will start next to Carey, and he profiles as a stretch "4." But at only 6'8" with a lean frame and limited athleticism, I could see him getting bullied a bit by the more brutish forwards in the ACC. On the wing, Krzyzewski can sort through a few different options to find the ones best-suited to meet his team's needs. Again, it comes back to hitting threes and getting stops. Here's a little overview of the candidates to start at the "2" and the "3": 1. Wendell Moore, 6'5" freshman - can defend but can't shoot 2. Alex O'Connell, 6'6" junior - can shoot but can't defend 3. Cassius Stanley, 6'5" freshman - a wildly explosive athlete that can't shoot (yet) 4. Joey Baker, 6'7" sophomore - ??? Early reports indicate Moore and O'Connell have gained the most trust from the coaching staff. But every Duke Reddit thread and Twitter page that I've perused pleads for Stanley to get the nod over O'Connell. It's easy to see why--he enthralls with dunks that defy gravity. In his highlights, he flashed the chops to run Duke's transition offense in a similar way that RJ Barrett did last season. However, on the EYBL circuit (per the information that I could find), he only made 21% of his three-point attempts. And I can't quite get past the fact that his mixtape looks very similar to JP Tokoto's--the frustrating wing with a near-identical build to Stanley, who played on the opposite end of Tobacco Road. Every member of this quartet earned four-star status coming out of high school (with Moore, Stanley, and Baker all ranked in the nation's top 40), so all possess some sort of upside—Moore and Stanley, in particular, have NBA potential. Watch for Coach K to mix and match lineups early in the non-con before settling on his seven man rotation by January. Of course, much of hype surrounding Duke’s 2019-20 season stems from the presence of sophomore point guard Tre Jones. Even the most casual college basketball fan probably knows about his defense. Often pressuring opposing guards the length of the floor, Jones magnetically sticks to his man, matching his steps with the deftness of a dancer. Even as an average athlete, he rarely gets beat because of his discipline and will. Though he’s less heralded on offense, he will have to up his scoring output if the Blue Devils want to contend in the ACC. I don’t believe in his three-point shot—I think his percentage could rise to 30-33%, but that’s about it. However, he’s strong on the dribble-drive, and I expect him to improve his finishing at the rim. He will also look to replicate his averages of 5.3 assists and just 1.5 turnovers—though the passing numbers could dip without Zion Williamson and Barrett sprinting down the court in front of him. But perhaps the biggest factor that will sway Duke’s success is Krzyzewski’s coaching. Ky McKeon of Three Man Weave had this to say about his job last season: Let me be clear: Coach K is one of the best coaches of all time in any sport. Having said that, it’s obvious his X’s and O’s game isn’t what it used to be. Whether this is due to old age, egos of high-level recruits, or simply not having the time to properly develop guys in just a few short months, K’s offensive strategy has gone from actually running offense to “roll the balls out and play." Last year’s squad was K’s fastest since 2008, which made sense given the ridiculous talent of Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett. Those two scorched opposing teams on the run, and when Duke didn’t score on the first shot it often secured the rebound and stuffed the ball down the hoop. This season’s team will have a whole new look from a personnel perspective, but this style likely isn’t changing, especially since K failed to address 2018-19’s shooting issues. I largely echo these same sentiments. It’s very weird for me to see this lack of coaching from K; when I was in school, he frequently taunted and tortured Tar Heel defenses by coaching ball movement like this: I swear I saw a Duke player make some variation of that corner shot upwards of 300 times across every UNC duke game from 2011-2015. Though this recruiting class comes to Durham with that prestigious top-5 marking, they lack the star power of some of the previous groups—Krzyzyewski must do more than "roll the ball" out if he wants to even match last season’s success.
0 Comments
Click here for part one, and here for part two.
Teams 15-11: 15. Arizona Once a team that dwelled in college basketball's upper echelon, Arizona reached three Elite 8s in a five year span from 2011 through 2015. Yet it feels like centuries have passed since the Desert Cats have been relevant--relevant for anything other than a FBI/pay-for-play scandal, that is. Now--the actions that gave way to scandal have consistently landed 'Zona top recruits. But recently, these highly-ranked classes have netted mixed results (i.e. first-round tournament exits). Most often, the Wildcats have faltered due to a dearth of defensive discipline, playmaking guards, and chemistry. But this year, Arizona may rid themselves of those deficiencies. In 2014 and 2015, when Sean Miller led his team to back-to-back Elite 8s, his squads ranked first and third, respectively, in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. Observing more closely, their defense against 2-point field goal attempts placed second nationally in 2014 and eighteenth nationally in 2015, per Bart Torvik. But that number has plummeted over the last four seasons. Five-star freshman Zeke Nnaji faces the expectation of reviving rim protection in Tuscon. Throughout the offseason, Nnaji's coaches have praised his versatility, his work ethic, and yes, his defensive aptitude. Miller said this in late August: "I think that when you talk about a ceiling, the sky’s the limit for him. He’s going to play both frontcourt positions, and I think on defense, he’s really adept, quick, strong, physical. He’s a guy who can block a shot but he’s also a guy who would be more than capable of guarding a smaller, quicker player." Although he lacks the fanfare of the two other five-stars in his class (more on them later), Nnaji wields the power to change his team's trajectory from a top-four Pac 12 team to a top ten team in the country (with an itty-bitty semi-legitimate chance at the national title). But if he doesn't learn quickly, 'Zona will have to rely too much on forwards Chase Jeter (a solid yet unspectacular former Dukie) and Ira Lee ("whose heart is bigger than his talent," to allude to Clark Griswold talking about his cousin Eddie.). Now about Nnaji's fellow five-star classmates--that's where the Cats will fill their "playmaking guard" void. Josh Green, a 6'6" wing out of Australia, arrives on campus with the reputation of an elite slasher with kangaroo-like hops. His biggest asset will be his transition offense, as he will either lead the fast break himself or catch lobs from Arizona's most highly-touted recruit, Nico Mannion. Many jokes have been made about Mannion's porcelain complexion and auburn hair. So I'll focus more on his game: he is N A S T Y. Since the days of TJ McConnell, the Wildcats have desperately missed a high-level floor general--and Nico meets that need. He combines graceful body control and a polished shooting touch with masterful court vision and pinpoint passes. Currently projected as a lottery pick, Mannion could easily win Pac-12 Player of the Year honors. More importantly, he'll bring some fun to the nondescript west coast college basketball scene. That last hindrance to Arizona's success--team chemistry--will take a little longer to sort out. In addition to the earlier-mentioned freshmen, Miller also brings in two grad-transfers in 5'10" guard Max Hazzard from UC-Irvine and 6'9" forward Stone Gettings from Cornell (by far the best names of any transfer duo in the country). So the coach has to hem plenty of new pieces into the fabric of his roster. Making matters more difficult, the Wildcats already lost their best player from a year ago, guard Brandon Williams, to an ACL tear. But the talent should eventually gel...however, if it doesn't, Arizona fans will always have this little limerick I wrote: when the FBI tried to bust them (and Adidas) for RICO, Sean Miller said, "Nah, I'm good. Let me land NICO." 14. Villanova In the year of our Lord 2004, I was an angsty 6th grader, wandering through a cold, cruel middle school world. Naturally, I turned to heavy music to soothe my soul. That led me to the metalcore titans Underoath, who released their breakthrough album They’re Only Chasing Safety that same year. The record featured an absolute banger called “It’s Dangerous Business Walking Out Your Front Door,” which helped catapult them into stardom (or at least as much stardom as a metal band can achieve). I reference “It’s Dangerous Business Walking Out Your Front Door,” because it’s also dangerous business betting against the Salt and Pepper Savant, Jay Wright. But here I am, a good bit lower than consensus on Nova, who’s almost unanimously regarded as a top 10 team entering the season. They bring in an awesome recruiting class—but I’m not sure the rest of their roster has the strength of a surefire national championship contender. Much of my skepticism hinges on Collin Gillespie as their starting point guard. Though he looks like Ryan Arcidiacano, he is NOT Ryan Arcidiacano. He lacks both the shot creation and the defensive chops of the former Villanova guard. While Gillespie excels as a catch-and-shoot threat, he has limitations in initiating and running the offense. Last season, he benefited playing next to Phil Booth, who terrorized the Big East as Nova’s lead guard, and alongside Eric Paschall, an All-Big East "big man" who really played more on the perimeter. Nova's season outlook heavily depends on replacing their scoring production. Five-star freshman combo guard Bryan Antoine will alleviate some of those concerns. Antoine reminds me of former Villanova star and 2018 NCAA Tournament MOP, Donte DiVencenzo; his vertical bounce, his strength around the rim, and his passing out of pick-and-roll call to mind images of DiVencenzo's final season in Philadelphia. While it would be unfair to expect him to shoot the long ball as skillfully as DiVencenzo, he did hit threes at 38% clip on the AAU circuit this past spring. Unfortunately, Wright and the Wildcats expect Antoine to be out until December, as he recovers from offseason shoulder surgery. If not for his injury, I would have Nova ranked a few spots higher. Antoine's classmate Jeremiah Robinson-Earl also comes to Philly with a five-star pedigree. The 6'9" forward out of Kansas will thrive as Wright's key big man in his 4-out 1-in offense. When the casual fan hears "Villanova's offense," he or she probably only thinks of three-point shooting. However, the off-ball movement of Nova's forwards is equally as important. A typical set calls for one forward to run from the block to the three-point line, while the other forward sets a pick for the ballhandler at the top of the key. The screening forward then rolls to the basket, forcing the first forward's defender to make a choice: stay on his man leaking out to perimeter and sacrifice help in the paint, or switch on to the roll-man and allow an open three. The results usually look something like this: Watch any Villanova highlights and you'll see them execute these slip screens to perfection. And because of Robinson-Earl's shooting range and his thunderous dunking ability, he can fill either forward position. Wright could play him out on the perimeter with bruising junior Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree in the post (I dub this duo "The Dash Brothers"); or Robinson-Earl could work closer to the hoop as 6'8" sophomore Saddiq Bey provides the spacing. Another sophomore, 6'10" Cole Swider, will also bolster the front court. Despite being labeled as a "stretch 4" coming out of high school, Swider only converted on 28% of his three-point attempts last season. But he has a quick, high release that indicates his percentage could jump up to the mid-to-high 30s. Plus, come on, he's under the tutelage of the Villanova coaching staff. Lastly, Nova must improve upon their mediocre defense from a season ago. After three straight years of ranking in the top 12 of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric, the Wildcats fell all the way down to 81st in 2019. Bart Torvik's metrics weren't any more forgiving--by his analysis, Villanova ranked 149th in two-point defense and 170th in three-point defense. With how much they lost after their 2018 championship run, this kind of regression wasn't that surprising. But if Villanova wants to be in the 1 and 2 seed conversation, they must get their defensive swagger back. 13. Memphis Here's one for speculation. A season into Penny Hardaway's coaching tenure, we know two things: 1) He's an incredible recruiter. Look at any college basketball site if you didn't know that. 2) He wants his team to play fast (ranked 7th in KenPom's tempo metric in 2018-19). That's it. That's all we know. (I didn't watch Memphis last year). But this year, those recruiting efforts have yielded dividends. The nation's top class resides in west Tennessee. Penny landed a sharpshooting maestro in 6'5" Lester Quinones (four-star, ranked 58th in 247Sports' recruiting composite), a scoring wing in 6'7" D.J. Jeffries (four-star, ranked 52nd), and a freakishly athletic forward who can play on the perimeter and in the post in 6'9" Precious Achiuwa (five-star, ranked 15th). And that's not even mentioning the two guys I'm most intrigued by: 7'1" James Wiseman (five-star, ranked 1st) and 6'3" Boogie Ellis (four-star, ranked 38th). NBA journalists and NBA scouts all agree that if the draft happened today, a team would undoubtedly take Wiseman in the top 5. His fluid strides and nimble footwork set him apart from typical seven-footers. Some big men trudge down the court--others gallop; Wiseman does the latter. The way he runs the floor, often finishing with a dunk in transition, reminds me of prime Kevin Garnett (from what I've seen of him, I think a modern, floor-stretching version of Garnett is his best-case-scenario NBA comparison). Offensively, Wiseman already possesses an advanced shooting touch. The lefty dominates in pick-and-pop and has stretched his range out to the three-point line. And though it's tough to project the handle of high school big men, he has showcased some guard-like dribble moves. Here's a clip of Wiseman from this year's Peach Jam, the big summer tournament that Nike puts on for their EYBL AAU circuit: Reminder, this dude is 7'1". But even with two lottery-type talents in the front court in Wiseman and Achiuwa, they will need a perimeter player to facilitate and feed them. That's where Boogie comes in. Originally a Duke commit, Ellis spurned Coach K in May after Tre Jones announced his return to Durham. Penny swooped in, and sold him on the notion of running the offense for the Tigers. I can't blame him--if I'm a top lead guard, do I want to learn under a former superstar, All-NBA point guard or a cantankerous old man who dyes his hair jet black? Okay, I'll go back to being unbiased; sorry, had to throw in a Duke dig for my Carolina people. But I do think Penny's development of Ellis will be fun to watch. Known for his quickness and his outside shooting, Boogie is malleable clay for Hardaway to shape into his own likeness. It seems like every year, a lead guard ranked in the mid-20s to mid-30s emerges and becomes a first rounder or even a lottery pick (Dejounte Murray, Donovan Mitchell, Trae Young, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Coby White, for example); since he was the most recent one to do it, we'll call this type of player the "Coby White Candidate." Ellis is a prime Coby White Candidate for the 2019 class.
I'm always a little skeptical of teams overly reliant on freshmen, which is why I don't have Memphis in the top 10 like some media outlets; but they have the depth and certainly the talent to make headlines all season. 12. Oregon Dana Altman enters the 2019-20 season facing many of the same questions that surrounded him last year: N'Faly Dante, another five-star center, committed to the Ducks this summer; and through the transfer wire and other recruiting wins, Oregon acquired enough talent to complement Dante and senior point guard Payton Pritchard. But without much roster carryover, how long will it take for this team to mesh? Their postseason success may have blocked this nicety from your memory, but Oregon was TRASH for most of last season. Garbage. Rubbish. Doo doo. In late February, they were 15-12 in the abysmal Pac-12, fresh off of a loss to coach-less UCLA. But after fumbling around for three months, the team's pieces finally fell into place--much like when the kids in the Nickelodeon gem Legends of the Hidden Temple would successfully assemble the Shrine of the Silver Monkey, after inexplicably struggling with its three simple parts. The Ducks proceeded to win ten games in a row, losing only to the eventual national champs, Virginia, in the Sweet 16. So...what can we expect from Oregon this year? Was last season's run through March mere luck? Or was it foreshadowing the emergence of a force out west in Nike's Mecca? Well, observing the Ducks' roster, I cannot help but notice a slew of similarities to the 2017 team that made the Final Four. Altman's offense functions best when he employs two guards who can both run the point. In 2017, he used Payton Pritchard and Dylan Ennis in these roles. This year, JUCO transfer Chris Duarte will run alongside Pritchard. Although Pritchard looks like the consummate "not flashy, but has all the intangibles" point guard (read: he's white), his game is pretty saucy. Look no further than these two electrifying plays from Oregon's second round win over Wisconsin.
The senior's dominance during the Ducks' ten game winning streak (16.3 points, 5.4 assists per game) leads me to believe that an All-American season could be in store. He thrives with the ball in his hands, scoring off the dribble and setting up his teammates; but he also possesses the skill to get open off-ball. That's where Duarte will take advantage of his time leading the offense, The fine folks at Three Man Weave highlighted Duarte's upside in their Oregon preview, where they noted his legitimate NBA buzz among scouts and evaluators. Here is the Weave's Matt Cox's description of his style of play: "Duarte’s skill and athleticism combination jumps off the screen when you watch his game tape, but it’s his positional versatility that leads me to believe he’ll flourish at Oregon playing alongside Pritchard. He’s a true combo guard with the size and scoring chops to play off-the-ball, but can also slide over to the point if Altman wants to run Pritchard off screens. At Northwest Florida State, Duarte averaged 19.0 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks a game while shooting 54% from the floor (40% 3-point range)." New Mexico transfer Anthony Mathis will round out Oregon's three-guard lineup. The 6'3" playmaker boasts a career 41.3 three-point percentage, so I foresee him being this team's version of Tyler Dorsey. Another transfer, Shakur Juiston from UNLV, will likely start in the frontcourt--to continue the Final Four team comparison, he'll kind of function like the versatile wing/power forward Dillon Brooks. Juiston is not on Brooks's level as a scorer or a creator, but he will space the floor, grab boards, and facilitate some out of the post (2 assists per game for UNLV last season). The aforementioned Dante will hope to impact games like forward/center Jordan Bell did over the course of Oregon's Final Four run. The freshman out of Mali (by way of Kansas) stands at an imposing 6'11" with a seraphim-like 7'5" wingspan. Though Bell departed Eugene with a sterling resumé, Dante could be even better. His potential resembles that of a defensive cornerstone and a probable NBA lottery pick. In this year's Peach Jam, Dante led his team to a championship and won MVP honors in the process. While scrolling through the WatchESPN app on a random June afternoon, I actually stumbled upon the title game and immediately noticed his two-way prowess; it seemed like he was involved on every play, and he finished with a 22 point, 18 rebound stat line. Dante's ceiling is as high as *googles mountains in Oregon to deliver a clever simile* Mount Hood.
A deep bench will supplement the Ducks' rotation. Sophomore guard Will Richardson (a former top 50 recruit), freak athlete freshman forward CJ Walker (a top 30 recruit), and freshman wing Addison Patterson (the top-ranked player out of Canada) will all play big minutes. Finally, I expect Oregon's defense to be a top ten unit nationally. Altman runs a hybrid scheme--one that initiates pressure in a 2-3 matchup zone, stifling opponents into wasting precious seconds off the shot clock; then, when the shot clock hits 10, the Ducks switch to man-to-man. So few teams possess the discipline to play multiple defenses on one possession, and this versatility continually confuses other teams. With Dante protecting the rim, and a bevy of athletic wings prowling for steals out of the zone, there will be no open season in Eugene, Oregon, this year. EDIT: I wrote this blurb before the NCAA announced that N'Faly Dante will not be eligible until December. Overall, this doesn't affect their long term outlook too much, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Oregon appeal the ruling. 11. Virginia Last season, Virginia accomplished something that had never been done in program history (winning the National Championship--you may remember this). And yet, even after hanging their first banner, they find themselves in a familiar position heading into 2020. Three and a half years ago, fresh off of his first Elite 8 appearance, Tony Bennett had to retool his roster around a highly-regarded recruiting class. The Hoos' two best players Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill (shout out to the Charlotte Christian class of 2011) had just graduated, while top-100 recruits Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, and DeAndre Hunter had just enrolled. Fast forward to 2019, and Guy, Jerome, and Hunter have all moved on to the NBA, with some icy, new jewelry on their fingers. And again, Bennett reloads with a couple of top-100 freshmen in guard Casey Morsell and forward Kadin Shedrick. Back in 2017, Virginia made the Sweet 16 as a 5-seed, also finishing 5th in the ACC. The defense, as is custom, ranked 2nd in the nation, per KenPom. Offensively, they experienced growing pains, but Guy and Jerome both demonstrated the sizzle that soon swelled into substance. I believe that season gives us an idea of the floor for the current team. Bennett's patented pack-line defense should again be top 5 in the country; but due to more experience and continuity on the roster, I expect that this year's rendition of Virginia will be better than the 2017 version. Yet the offense still contains plenty of unknowns, which prevents me from ranking them higher. Sophomore point guard Kihei Clark shined as a complimentary piece next to Guy, Hunter, and Jerome. But without that terrifying trio taking on the scoring load, how will he respond? At 5’9”, Clark lacks the size of the prototypical Virginia lead guard. Both Brogdon and Jerome, for example, stand at 6’5”. In addition to their deadeye shooting, their stature helped increase their effectiveness on dribble drives. Meanwhile, Clark shot a dismal 35% from the field last season, and an even more putrid 33% during ACC play. Although...I should make the point that Clark is GOOD--I mean, he did start for a national championship team. Last year, he showcased good quickness, great decision making, and a penchant for throwing passes that slash through traffic like a weaving motorcyclist. Whether or not he can make that critical freshman-to-sophomore leap will play a huge role in Virginia contending for another Final Four berth. Flanking Clark will be either Morsell or JUCO transfer Tomas Woldetensae, who was a National Junior College Athletic Association (NJCAA) All-American last season. Twenty seconds into watching a highlight mix of Woldy (that’s what I like to call him), I fell in love. The entrancing footwork. The effortless jumper. The exquisite 2002 Justin Guarini-style hair. After leading Indian Hills in scoring, while converting on 47.7% (!!!) of his three-point attempts, his JUCO coach had this to say about his best player: “Just like a lot of European guards (Woldentensae is Italian), he knows the game really well. He wants to make his teammates better. He wants to play with other good players. He wants to play basketball ‘the right way’. Growing up in Europe, he watches the professional style and the ball moves and it’s not really about what you score but it’s about your team moving the ball and sharing it and everybody getting touches. I think he really enjoys playing that way. But we wanted him to be a lot more aggressive this year, and he really grew into that role to where he was comfortable being the go-to guy. Any time he could get his three-point shot off, and then he’d mix in attacking the basket and scoring in some different ways. He’s developed a knack for scoring the ball at a very high level, and I think he’s really improved to the point where he can be an impact player at any level.” "Wants to make his teammates better." "Wants to play basketball 'the right way.'" "It's not really about what you score, but it's about your team moving the ball...I think he really enjoys playing that way." Yep, sounds like the epitome of a Virginia player to me. It’s hard to know the skill level of his competition at the JUCO level, but it’s easy to envision Woldentensae shooting off of flare screens in Bennett’s blocker-mover offense. I really want Woldy to be great--and that quote from his former coach increases my confidence in him. While the backcourt contains several uncertainties, we do know a little bit of what to expect from the big men. We’ve seen Tony Bennett feature his post players in the past--Gill and Mike Scott come to mind--but it is somewhat rare for him to do so. However, I think redshirt junior Jay Huff and senior Mamadi Diakite will play impressively on both ends of the floor. In a post I wrote this past February, I declared my undying adoration for Huff after he dunked over RJ Barrett. And I think he could be on the verge a breakout as a floor-stretching 7-footer, the first of his kind in Charlottesville. Diakite, on the other hand, rocketed into the limelight during the Big Dance. The college basketball world witnessed the extent of his powers as he averaged 10.5 points, 8.2 boards, and 2.6 blocks over Virginia's six tournament games. He is incredible at creating separation with screens both on and off the ball. When he rolls to the basket, you might as well back off and save your energy, because he's dunking that thang. And as he showed on the tournament's most famous buzzer beater, he has a velvety mid-range shot. Oh, and about his defense... That's him stuffing Texas Tech's Jarrett Culver, the sixth pick in this summer's NBA draft. Last year, he finished third in the ACC in both defensive box plus/minus and block percentage. As the heartbeat of the pack-line, Diakite is about as sure of an All-ACC First Teamer as you will find. Every year, the champ seems to lose a ton—when players reach the pinnacle of the sport, who can blame them for leaving even if they’re only a fringe NBA prospect? Of course, UVA’s smothering defense will keep them in the Top 25 all year long. But how Virginia performs and progresses offensively will be one of the more intriguing storylines.
Part one can be found here.
Teams 20-16: 20. Purdue As I wrote in part one of my preseason rankings, I believe the head coach matters more than almost any other factor in projecting a college basketball team's success. Recruiting victories only carry a team so far. (Example A: Johnny Jones at LSU with Ben Simmons in 2016). I have no analytical data to back this up, but it just feels like coaches are more important in college basketball than they are in any other team sport. I find myself thinking about the best coaches (both historic and current) quite often. And I'm almost ready to place Matt Painter into a prestigious tier of coaches; an enviable tier, so elusive, so elite, so eminent, that few ever achieve such an accolade. It's known as "The Roster Kinda Sucks, But The Coach Is Good Enough To Make It Work" tier or the T.R.K.S.B.T.C.I.G.E.T.M.I.W. tier for short. In the 2010s, Tom Izzo and Tony Bennett have been the poster boys for this group--they consistently bring in guys whom recruiting sites overlook, and they turn them into ballers. It's the anti-Mark Turgeon tier (dare I say, in recent years, the anti-Coach K tier?). But Painter is right there on the doorsteps, ready to barge into the T.R.K.S.B.T.C.I.G.E.T.M.I.W. party. Since losing to Chris Beard's Arkansas-Little Rock in the 2016 NCAA Tournament, the Boilermakers have ventured to three straight Sweet 16s (including an Elite 8 appearance back in March) and have captured two of the last three Big Ten regular season titles. But this year, Painter faces one of his biggest challenges yet in replacing All-American guard Carsen Edwards. Last season, the Boilermakers' offense centered on Edwards running off of screens and firing asteroids from beyond the arc. But the guard wasn't one dimensional, as he thrived with the ball in his hands and also generated easy baskets with his masterful cutting ability. Edwards' insane usage rate (an estimate of the number of plays in an offense used by one player) of 37.3% ranked fifth in the country. If you watched Purdue in the tourney, you probably saw Edwards carry the Boilermakers like Jim carried his team in the"Basketball" episode of The Office. That's...a lot to replace. But I think the Boilers' roster oozes with breakout potential. Look no further than redshirt-sophomore forward Aaron Wheeler. In 2018-19, Wheeler played only 13.5 minutes per game; but while on the court, he lurked menacingly around the rim as a shot-blocker, and he flashed rare versatility on offense. Regarding his defense, two plays from the NCAA Tournament stick out: a perfectly-timed rejection of Tennessee's hyper-athletic guard Jordan Bone in the Sweet 16: And an annihilation of Virginia's 6'8" 225 pound wing Braxton Key in the Elite 8: On offense, Wheeler has the handle to drive to the cup and the range to knock down threes (36.5% on 85 attempts). His shooting stroke will bless whomever Painter starts in the frontcourt next to him, whether that's redshirt junior Matt Haarms or sophomore Trevion Williams. Personally, I think Haarms has hit his ceiling--he's a 7'3" Goliath who can operate in both the low and high post, score about 9-10 points a game, grab some boards, and protect the rim. Williams, on the other hand, flashed the upside of an all-conference player. The 6'9" sophomore weighs in at a biiiiiig 280 pounds, and he uses his body to throttle defenders in the post; he also has a nice little floater and hook shot too. Perhaps what sets Williams apart the most is his relentless rebounding--he grabbed an outrageous 20.5% of available offensive rebounds and 25.4% of available defensive rebounds while on the floor. Both numbers would have led the Big Ten, had he played enough minutes to qualify. Junior Nojel Eastern and grad transfer Jahaad Proctor will also play key roles for Purdue. Nominally a wing, Eastern functioned more as a point guard last season, often initiating the Boilermakers' offense. While not the biggest offensive threat in the half-court, he uses his length to nab steals and then creates one-man fast breaks in transition. As one of the nation's best perimeter defenders, the 6'6" athlete can legitimately guard positions "1" through "4" (he took on both Ty Jerome and DeAndre Hunter during different parts of the Elite 8 game against Virginia). Proctor sojourns to West Lafayette from the Tar Heel State, where he averaged 19.5 points a game for Tubby Smith's High Point Panthers. This may shock you, but I've never once watched a High Point basketball game, so I'm not super familiar with Proctor's style of play. From the highlights I've watched, he looks like a straight line driver with a little bit of shooting ability off of screens and off the dribble. It's hard to imagine Proctor or Eastern filling the scoring vacancy left by Edwards. Thus, I anticipate a frontcourt-focused Purdue team known more for their defense. They ranked a solid 25th in the country in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric in 2018-19; and if that number improves, expect another deep run this spring. 19. Florida State The Seminoles' formula for success is simple--accumulate a ton of tall, athletic dudes who pride themselves on defense, then suffocate your opponent in a cyclone of limbs. Head coach Leonard Hamilton rarely recruits guards under 6'4", and he seemingly has a never-ending supply of 7-footers in his rotation; I wouldn't be surprised if he has a laboratory hidden in rural Tallahassee where he creates these guys. With such physically gifted athletes at his disposal, Hamilton deploys a pressure-heavy defensive scheme. His guards harass ball-handlers away from the basket, forcing them into wasting time off of the shot clock. From there, the 'Noles want to funnel their challengers into the lane, where their superb help defense collapses on the man with the ball. Not only does this coerce the opposition into taking a contested shot--it also creates ample opportunities for steals. Senior point guard Trent Forrest, in particular, plays phenomenal defense on and off the ball. With a slight hand, he picks pockets like a sketchy guy in Times Square. On offense, Florida State operates as a balanced, collective unit. They rarely have a player average over 16 points per game, but you'll routinely see eight or nine guys pour in 5+ points in a contest. Although Hamilton abides by this approach, he usually has a reliable guard who can hit a shot in crunch time (think Terrance Mann, Dwayne Bacon, and Malik Beasley). Yet this year, the 'Noles have a need for that go-to guy. While Forrest will serve as the senior leader, he's more of a distributor than a scorer. That's where I believe a freshman can fill the void. Patrick Williams, a 6'6" ox out of Charlotte, arrives in Tallahassee with a five-star pedigree. Moreover, Williams cited Leonard Hamilton's development of big guards like Bacon and Beasley as a primary factor in his commitment. His above the rim style of play, his propensity to force a turnover and lead the break, and his floor-spacing ability should translate to the ACC immediately. If only we had some footage of him embarrassing a future ACC foe to really whet our appetites. . .oh wait we do? Alright, let's roll the tape: In the above clip, Williams bursts by fellow five-star and Duke commit Wendell Moore (a player known for his defense) en route to putting poor #35 in a body bag. It's the kind of dunk that makes you stand up out of your seat, put your fist over your mouth, and make that surprised, awestricken facial expression (if you've even watched just one BallIsLife mixtape, you know what I'm talking about). Dude is a monster. In addition to Williams, the Seminoles' roster contains two other breakout players in sophomore guard Devin Vassell and sophomore forward Raiquan Gray. Vassell is a 6'5" three-point sniper (41% on 26 makes from beyond the arc last season) primed for a larger role as a scorer this season. Gray is a mountain, built kind of like Zion Williamson; he also wears #1, which made for a funny scene when the two of them matched up in the two FSU-Duke games last season (cue the Spider-Man meme). With his large frame and ample posterior, he overpowers defenders in the paint. But Gray also made ten three-pointers last season, and he runs the floor with an unexpected gracefulness. Lastly, from the games I watched, Gray seems to possess a high basketball IQ. He consistently makes the right pass and looks for ways to make his teammates better. Though he played only 10 minutes a game last year, I foresee that number going way up; look for him to average close to 10 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists. One final thought on Florida State: I would be remiss not to give a shoutout to freshman four-star recruit Balša Koprivica. The Serbian played his high school ball at the storied Montverde Academy, and he just looks like the prototypical FSU 7-footer. Who knows what type of impact he'll have this year--his mixtape is full of dunks and not much else--but I think he'll at least get a few minutes per game. 18. Baylor Baylor is the whole wheat bread of college hoops. They are usually legitimately good, but mad boring to watch--like how whole wheat bread is legitimately good for you, but mad boring to eat. Again, like whole wheat bread, Baylor could use some pizazz and excitement. Bread needs peanut butter, avocado, jam, or even Nutella (my Nutella hot take: it's the most overrated spread ever) to spice it up. The Bears need dynamic guard play. When I think about Scott Drew's brand of basketball, I envision a physically-imposing post player (Jo Lual-Acuil Jr., Johnathan Motley, Rico Gathers) and an inefficient gunner in the backcourt (Manu Lecomte, Al Freeman, Lester Medford). But *ESPN 30 for 30 voice* what if I told you...that the Bears may actually have a talented, consistent lead guard? During his freshman season, sophomore Jared Butler demonstrated the skill needed to run a high-level offense--one that finished 20th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric. While his freshman shooting percentages were far from amazing (39.5% from the field, 35.1% from three), reason suggests those numbers could skyrocket after a year in Drew's system. Most importantly, he has already shown the athleticism to separate from defenders and the size to score over them. This season, Butler will be aided by the return of junior forward Tristan Clark (the token physically-imposing post player). Clark missed all but 14 games of 2018-19, but he averaged almost 15 points and 7 boards when he was on the floor. But perhaps more significant than his offensive output is his defensive impact. Routinely a top 25 defense, Baylor fell to 75th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency a year ago, per KenPom. This eventually doomed them, as Gonzaga exposed the Bears' deficiencies in protecting the rim in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. In that contest, the Zags' big man Brandon Clarke ran rampant through their zone scheme, scoring 36 points. Baylor's interior D made him look like he was playing on a Little Tikes hoop. However, a healthy (Tristan) Clark combined with the progression of forward Freddie Gillespie (a D-III transfer now in his second year with the Bears) should ameliorate their issues in guarding star frontcourt players. While Clark's injury led Drew to play smaller line-ups than normal, their offensive rebounding did not suffer at all. A mainstay in the top 10 in offensive rebounding percentage, Baylor grabbed an astounding 37.9% of their own misses, ranking second in the country, per Bart Torvik. This was all without anyone taller than 6'7" in their starting line-up for most of the season. Their success on the glass can be attributed to junior Mark Vital. Although the 6'5" Vital primarily manned the power forward position this past season, I don't think it's fitting to call him a "small-ball 4." Though not the tallest, he is definitely not small. I mean, just look at this man. In Waco, they breed 'em beefy. The bouncy Vital throws his weight around as he snatches rebounds--he averaged 7.2 per game and led the Big 12 in offensive rebounding rate. This makes me believe that his diet consists of three things: brisket, (Whata)burgers, and boards.
17. LSU
From March to May, Will Wade's journey at LSU went from that of a jon boat leisurely cruising down a marsh in Baton Rouge to a dinghy thrashed to and fro by the violent waves of the NCAA's storm of allegations. Well, sort of. Yes, accusations of paying recruits surfaced. Yes, the university suspended him from his coaching duties for the SEC and NCAA Tournaments. Yes, he delivered one of the most awkward and embarrassing interviews ever in the aftermath. But fast forward to this season, and the head coach of the LSU men's basketball team is. . . still Frank Williams Wade. Look...I don't really care whether or not he dropped the bag for some players. There are plenty of other sports/media outlets that give their opinion on all of that. I do, however, think it's pretty funny he didn't get fired. But it underscores what a brilliant basketball coach he is. Thus, let's get into their season outlook. Although the Tigers have to replace First Team All-SEC point guard Tremont Waters, they return two studs as starters in the back court. Senior Skylar Mays and sophomore Javonte Smart will aim to make up for lost production. Neither has Waters' passing ability, but they'll likely alternate point guard duties until one emerges as the better facilitator. Mays has proven himself as a plus athlete, a crafty finisher in the lane, and a decent three-point shooter over his three seasons in purple and gold. He also earned Second Team All-SEC honors last year. However, my bet is on Smart to become LSU's alpha dog. After averaging a respectable 11.1 points and 2.4 assists last year, Smart will set his sights on a sizable sophomore leap. In the one game Waters missed due to injury last season (a February win over Tennessee), the then-freshman erupted for 29 points and 5 assists. With an explosive first step, Smart repeatedly breezed by the Vols' Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden, two of the better guard stoppers in the country. In the frontcourt, Smart's classmates Darius Days and Emmitt Williams (former four and five-star recruits, respectively) will continue to improve, coming off of promising freshman seasons. They both only stand at 6'6", but their height doesn't really hinder them. The duo demonstrated exquisite skill in attacking the glass last season. As soon as a shot goes up, they show the type of dedication to boxing out that you only expect to see in the Big Ten. Their prowess on the boards contributed to LSU ranking 9th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, per Bart Torvik. Offensively, Williams fits the profile of a dogged roll-man. He took 60.6% of his field goal attempts at the rim, making 75.6% of those shots, per hoop-math.com. Most front court players can't keep up with his speed, as he shakes off defenders while barreling to the hoop on pick-and-rolls. Days offers more versatility than Williams, as he can play the "3," the "4," and apparently now, the "5." He torments opposing big men in space with his penchant for getting open on the perimeter and knocking down threes; in LSU's second round tournament win over Maryland, neither of the Terps' star post players (Bruno Fernando, a 2019 second round pick to the Atlanta Hawks, and Jalen Smith, a projected 2020 first round pick) could track him down. If Days can provide quality minutes at the "5," LSU becomes a serious threat to repeat as SEC Champions, as they currently lack a proven screen-setting, shot-blocking presence down low. The lack of size on the Tigers' roster is the one thing that prevents me from ranking them higher. However, their tallest player could emerge as their best player. Five-star freshman and McDonald's All-American Trendon Watford already has an NBA body at 6'9", 230 pounds. The versatile forward moves like a gazelle in transition before slashing through the lane. He comfortably handles the ball on the break, and he possesses excellent court vision for a player his size. If Wade plays a lineup of Smart, Mays, Watford, Days, and Williams, we will see a college team test just how far "positionless basketball" can go. 16. Maryland I figured that 16 was the perfect ranking for the Terps--as long as Mark Turgeon is their coach, their ceiling is no higher than the Sweet 16. I've just seen Turgeon squander so much talent. The 2015-16 season always sticks out to me--despite boasting a roster with seven top-100 recruits, Maryland's year came to an end when they got blasted by Kansas...in the Sweet 16.
Former Terrapins and current NBA players Kevin Huerter, Justin Jackson, and Bruno Fernando (all in their first or second year in the Association) all left College Park without ever making it to the second weekend. So yeah, I don't expect this to be the year that Turgeon breaks through, even with most sports publications projecting the Terrapins as a top 10 team.
The hype around Maryland starts with burgeoning sophomore forward Jalen "Stix" Smith. After spurning the NBA draft, Smith is a popular dark horse candidate to challenge Michigan State's Cassius Winston for Big Ten Play of the Year honors. His game basically consists of blocking shots, turning outlet passes into easy dunks, and catching the ball in the high post and telling defenders to get out of his way. In the midst of my skepticism towards his team, I must admit he's a beast. He even showed a liiiiiiiiittle bit of three-point range towards the end of the season. And he wears rec-specs. Much respect to the rec-specs. Beyond Smith, much of the excitement surrounding Maryland derives from a group of high-upside underclassmen. As freshmen, sophomore guards Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins both drained over 40% of their three point attempts; and this year, they should add to their respective scoring averages of 8.6 and 8.3. Wiggins, in particular, has garnered some NBA interest, as a vertically-gifted athlete who moves well without the ball in his hands. In addition to the rising sophomores, Turgeon welcomes two four-star centers in Makhi Mitchell and Chol Marial. Mitchell's scouting report is pretty generic: "decent athlete," "good feet," "can score with back to the basket" (from 247Sports). But Marial, like I mentioned with FSU's Balša Koprivica, intrigues me, being that he's also as a massive international prospect. Peep that wingspan.
I don't know if he's actually good at basketball...and he's currently recovering from surgery for stress fractures in both of his legs and may not play until late December (nope, nuh-uh, doesn't sound problematic for a big man, not at all). But I'm ready to see the Sudanese sultan spike a ball into the mezzanine.
Lastly, senior lead guard Anthony Cowan returns as the experienced leader, the steady hand, and the crunch time scorer. Though not the most efficient, the senior still averaged over 15 points and 4 assists per game in both of the last two seasons. And yet, even after earning Second Team All-Big Ten accolades in 2019, the only Maryland fan I know described Cowan verbatim as "so overrated." Again, these are the reasons why I'm lower than consensus on Maryland--I don't believe in the roster as much as most of the media, and I've already bemoaned and belittled Turgeon enough for one blurb. The Terrapins will most likely be good not great, stay in the top five of the Big Ten, and the top 20 of both KenPom's rankings and the AP Top 25. But I wouldn't expect any exhilarating tournament runs. |
AuthorRiley Davis Archives
June 2021
Categories |
Photo used under Creative Commons from MarsInOrbit