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Click here for part one On to part two! Teams 25 through 21: 25. Arkansas Deep Dive: Last year, the Muss Bus rolled into Fayetteville puffin’ exhaust and slangin’ gravel. The shirtless driver opened up the door and let out a raucous “WOO PIG SOOEY!” Initially, I was skeptical. I stayed put at the bus stop and decided to let it pass. "Maybe tomorrow," I thought. "Surely this guy isn’t doing anything at Arkansas that Mike Anderson couldn’t have done." Well, I was wrong. Eric Musselman exceeded expectations in his first season at Arkansas; and then he followed it up by hauling in an incredible recruiting class. So now? I’m ready to get my bus pass. Musselman first proved his coaching merit during his days in out west in Reno. Prior to his arrival at the University of Nevada, the Wolf Pack went under .500 for three straight seasons (12-19, 15-17, 9-22, respectively). Within two years, the head coach constructed a mid-major power, rattling off three straight tournament appearances, with an unforgettable Elite 8 berth in 2018. Before the COVID outbreak, Arkansas sat at 20 wins and had the talent to notch a few SEC Tourney wins to earn an invitation to the Big Dance. This year, they shouldn’t even need a strong conference tournament showing to get a bid. Most of the Razorbacks’ advantages can be found on the perimeter. The guard quartet of Desi Sills, KK Robinson, Jalen Tate, and Moses Moody all bring different skillsets and offer lineup flexibility. Sills is the lone member out of that group who played for the 2019-20 Hogs. Down the stretch of last season, the junior burgeoned into a consummate 3-and-D guard. He moves intelligently without the ball, finding gaps in the defense to get open from deep. Although he started the year in an ugly shooting slump, he sank 45% of his three-point attempts in the months of February and March. On the defensive end, Sills plays much bigger than his listed 6’1” frame--not only can he lock up guards, but in spurts of conference play, he held his own guarding stretch-ish bigs like LSU’s Trendon Watford and Auburn’s Anfernee McLemore. In addition to his on-court skills, he serves as a presence of continuity, as Musselman seeks to integrate a bundle of new pieces. The Northern Kentucky transfer Tate can play on or off-ball and stuffed the stat sheet last season as a high usage player. During his time in the Horizon League, he accumulated a list of awards longer than a Walgreens receipt, most notably on the defensive end. Tate’s long arms and precise anticipation empower him to pick pockets, as he ranked in the Horizon's top 5 in steal rate throughout his career. Regarding his offensive game, word out of Fayetteville speculates that Musselman will convert him into a full-time point guard. The head coach has a history of turning big guards into primary facilitators (see: Caleb Martin from 2017-19); but I’m bearish on Tate in this role. Yes, Northern Kentucky has emerged as one of the top low-major programs in the country...but they’re still a low major. Moving up to the deep SEC will pose a significant challenge. Not to mention, his three-point shot is butt ugly (27% from three for his career, 18% last season). Don't get me wrong, I think Tate will be a helpful role player for the Razorbacks; but part of my skepticism around his lead guard prospects stems from my love for Robinson. I speculated on Robinson’s potential impact back in April, which you can read about here. To summarize, he’s wildly speedy in the open court, can nail pull-up jumpers as well as curl off screens, and he relentlessly pressures the opposing ballhandler. He fits perfectly in Musselman’s 4-out system that allows multiple guys to create off the bounce. I just hope Musselman lets KK loose early in the season. Lastly, the hometown product Moses Moody has the chops to take over as a suitable Isaiah Joe replacement. The freshman fits the mold of the modern NBA wing who can handle, shoot, and play multiple positions; his game bears a resemblance to former Villanova superstar Mikal Bridges. And he may have the best three-point jumper in the entire freshman class.
With Robinson, Sills, and Tate all capable of driving into the teeth of the defense and kicking the ball out, corner threes will fall into Moses’ lap like manna from heaven. Since he played for the loaded Montverde Academy in high school, Moody never had to orchestrate the offense. But I trust that Musselman can develop him as an on-ball player if he so pleases; the coach prioritized deploying Joe in a lot of ball screen actions last season, so he may do the same for Moody. In the frontcourt, Musselman will turn to three more transfers: Justin Smith from Indiana, Vance Jackson from New Mexico, and Connor Vanover from California. Smith is a high-flyer who was miscast as a small forward for the Hoosiers. Although he posted solid stats throughout his IU career, Muss will better utilize him by playing him less on the perimeter and optimizing his ability to run the floor in transition. Jackson and his watermelon-sized deltoids provide enough size to man either the “4” or the “5” spots; however, at New Mexico, he mostly got his buckets on the dribble-drive and by popping out to the three-point line (just 21% of his field-goal attempts came at the rim, compared to 60% of his attempts coming from behind the arc, per hoop-math). Vanover, a sit-out transfer from Cal Berkley, stands at an imposing 7'3" and is the lone traditional big on the roster. But I’m not gonna even act like I’ve watched Cal basketball in the last five years--per a quick Google search, he appears to be a pasty dude with a man bun who finished his freshman year at Berkley (2018-19) with decent block and rebounding rates. He also hit 27 threes that season--it’s a shame that the seven people who subscribe to the Pac-12 Network were the only ones to witness them. Up and down Arkansas’ roster, you will find a little bit of everything--and I’m not just talking about the variety of basketball strengths that each player brings to the table. You see under-recruited guys, five-star freshmen, sit-out transfers, grad-transfers, transfers on their third school, and probably a JuCo guy thrown on the bench that I’m missing. Musselman, a proponent of short rotations, could end up dealing with some combination of option paralysis and disgruntled players. It will be most interesting to see how he handles Robinson and Moody, as most of his success has derived from being the Transfer Whisperer. But dream with me for a second. Let’s take a little stroll for old time’s sake and trust that Musselman will make the most of this stacked squad. TLDR: Projected starters: G - KK Robinson (Fr.), G - Desi Sills (Jr.), G - Moses Moody (Fr.), F - Justin Smith (Sr.), F - Vance Jackson (RSr.) Projected bench: G - Vance Jackson (RSr.), C - Connor Vanover (RSo.), F - Jaylin Williams (Fr.), G - JD Notae (RJr.) Strengths: depth Weaknesses: too much depth Best player: Moody Breakout player: Robinson 24. Rutgers Deep Dive: More like “I’m Sorry, What?gers.” But yes, after decades of embarrassment and irrelevance, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights crack the prestigious Amateur Hour Hoops Top 25. Last season, Rutgers basically guaranteed themselves a bid to the Big Dance for the first time since *checks notes*...1991. NINETEEN NINETY-ONE. I wasn’t even born yet! My mom was probably still trying to convince my dad to have a second child! Even though COVID robbed the Scarlet Knights of ending their barren tournament drought, there is good news for the New Jersey faithful: head coach Steve Pikiell brings back four starters from a team that won 20 games and finished 28th on KenPom a year ago. The time is now. *When* the Tournament happens this season, they should be firmly on the right side of the bubble. Rutgers’ identity revolves around their defense--I find it tough to spot a weakness on that side of the ball. They can switch on ball screens, and they can ice them. They don’t take unnecessary risks with their pressure, but they find a way to force a ton of turnovers. Teams find it especially hard to score on them in the paint (13th best 2-point field goal defense in the country), but they still execute rotations with precision--they almost always have someone on the perimeter to contest an open shooter. Pikiell has assembled the perfect personnel for his defensive scheme to flourish: his roster consists of guys who are either tall or wide, (or both tall and wide) who functionally optimize their size and athleticism. A surplus of versatile wings make that aforementioned switchy-ness possible--the 6’4” Montez Mathis and the 6’7” headband bros Caleb McConnell and Paul Mulcahy can all defend multiple positions on the perimeter. In guards Geo Baker (6’4”) and Jacob Young (6’2”, but broad as a “wide load” trailer on the highway), the Knights possess a couple of guys who can disrupt ballhandlers from getting into the flow of the offense. Young is surprisingly stealthy for a big guard; his steals quickly morph into instant offense. But it’s the dogged style of frontcourt studs Myles Johnson and Ron Harper Jr. that enables the athletes on the wing to inflict terror on their foes. A shot-blocking behemoth, Johnson envelops his challengers with his 6’10” 255+ pound frame (he definitely qualifies as a “tall and wide” guy). After swatting 1.5 shots per game and ranking third in the conference in defensive rating last season, he’ll shoulder even more of the load as the only battle-tested rim protector on the roster. Harper, a 6’6” 240-pound forward, willingly guards anybody. The junior possesses a blend of speed and power that allows him to stick with both quick-twitch wings and post players who step to him. Also, you just don’t want to mess with dudes named “Ron.” Though the defense could be the very best in the Big Ten, the offense must improve by leaps and bounds if Rutgers wants to contend for a top-four finish in the conference. Three-point shooting and free-throw shooting stick out as crippling weaknesses. Last year, the Scarlet Knights attempted the second-fewest three-pointers in the Big Ten--and for good reason. They made just 30.8% of their long-range shots, 296th nationally. Instead, the offense centered on attacking the basket on dribble-drives; but their free-throw woes cramped their efficiency in a playing style that prioritizes getting to the line. A few years back, I coached a church league team of fifth-graders, and this league had a very stupid rule that mandated that every player shoot a free throw at halftime. If the kid made the free throw, his team got a point. And my team happened to be full of horrible free throw shooters (okay, it’s fair to blame some of that on the coaching). But I remember watching these kids brick and airball free throws with a sense of dread and doom, as the other team would randomly have three or four kids sink their freebies. Those same feelings of consternation surface when I see a Rutgers player saunter to the line. They shot 64% from FT as a team, finishing second to last in the Big Ten. Not to keep piling on, but for all of his giftedness as a defender, Myles Johnson shot 36.3% on his free throws. You just can’t have a starter miss ‘em that frequently. Still, Rutgers boasts a handful of guys who have proven that they can score against the heavyweights of the conference. Baker appears extra jittery with his handle, and he displays solid explosiveness for a two-footed leaper (12 for 12 on dunks last season). Down the stretch of Big Ten play, he also pinpointed some gorgeous live-dribble passes. Mathis, Young, and the Headband Bros all have some ability to create off the dribble. But I actually think that Headband Bro #2 (Mulcahy) could see the biggest boost in production. It’s possible that he increases from 3.7 points per game to 9-11ish; he showed off nice touch around the basket and atypical ballhandling for a 6’6” player. Plus, he dished out 61 assists to just 28 turnovers, so that will earn him more trust and playing time. In addition, Harper Jr.’s versatility provides open looks for himself and for his teammates. The junior sets skull-rattling back screens that allow cutters to run unimpeded, but he also pops out to sink corner threes (his 34.9 percentage doesn’t look all that pretty until you watch his teammates). Finally, his ferocious offensive rebounding gifts his team with crucial extra possessions in close games (Rutgers played in many of those last season). And lastly, for my northeastern compatriots, get ready: if we can get *any* fans into arenas, the RAC will once again be the best party New Jersey has seen since DJ Pauly D was spinning phat beats. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Geo Baker (Sr.), G - Montez Mathis (Jr.), F - Paul Mulcahy (So.), F - Ron Harper Jr. (Jr.), C - Myles Johnson (RJr.) Projected bench: G - Jacob Young (RSr.), F - Caleb McConnell (Jr.), F - Cliff Omoruyi (Fr.) Strengths: defense, physicality, rebounding Weaknesses: shooting, free throws, being Rutgers Best player: Harper Breakout player: Mulcahy 23. Indiana Deep Dive: Archie Miller must love the pursuit of former glory. The head coach spent his playing days at North Carolina State University--an institution currently mired in a three-decade-long quest to recapture the magic of 1983. Now he enters his fourth year coaching at another school that hasn’t won anything since the ‘80s. Indiana represents the more successful foil to NC State...and unfortunately for Arch, both fan bases are equally as impatient with their coaches. If he can’t succeed this year, the candy-striped hourglass may run out. A Tournament birth is the bare minimum expectation. The Hoosiers won 20 games a season ago and return 67.8% of those minutes, per Bart Torvik. They also usher in the nation’s 16th-best recruiting class (per 247Sports). The headliner of that class simultaneously brings excitement to the fans and fills a gigantic hole on the roster. Five-star Khristian Lander, a late reclassification from 2021 to 2020, will aim to bring a dependability to the lead guard slot that the Hoosiers have ached for since Yogi Ferrell's graduation. Lander wriggles past defenders with elite change-of-direction speed. That agility combined with a powerful first step gets him into the lane, where he can finish at the rim with either hand. Plus, he can drain the long ball off of hand-offs/off the catch, and he is gaining comfort at shooting pull-up jumpers. Last season, Indiana ranked 38th nationally in initial field goal attempts in transition, per hoop-math.com. However, their effective field goal percentage in transition ranked just 199th. With Lander bursting through the open court, expect that number to spike. The frosh offers an immediate scoring upgrade over junior Rob Phinisee. But Miller trusts that the two can play together: “Once Khristian joined the class, it was inevitable. We were going to have to play Rob, Khristian, and Al (Durham) together...I don’t know necessarily if that combo works the best or the most, but it’s going to give our perimeter guys way more opportunities to go out there and play a three-headed monster...My hope would be our skill level goes up, our turnovers go down, our shooting percentages go up, and our style is more uptempo.” Phinisee has posted pretty putrid numbers through his first two years (career averages of 7 points per game and 36.7% from the field). But perhaps playing next to a primary ballhandler will alleviate some pressure and allow him to shine as a secondary facilitator (he did rank 7th in the conference in assist rate a year ago). A last thought regarding the backcourt: due to Lander’s age (17), slender frame, and lack of experience, there is no guarantee that he reaches stardom this year. The good folks at Three Man Weave noted the struggles of other re-class lead guards like Derryck Thornton and Ashton Hagans in their Indiana preview. Even Kira Lewis, a re-class success story, turned in an up and down freshman year. Still, if Lander can average around 14 points per game and bury 50 triples or so, Indiana’s will be able to use their offense to close out games. On the wing, Miller benefits from a surplus of options. The senior Al Durham supplied the most consistent three-point shooting to the Hoosiers last year, converting 36 makes at a 38% clip. In addition, he’s strong around the bucket and can read defensive rotations to find the open man in the halfcourt. Sophomore Armaan Franklin, redshirt sophomore Jerome Hunter, and freshman Jordan Geronimo will all compete for big minutes on the perimeter. Franklin and Hunter both shot the ball well down the stretch of last season, with the latter displaying the most upside. As a strong 6’7” athlete, Hunter can man either forward spot, providing small-ball versatility. From the end of January through the rest of the season, he shot 40% from deep (on 13 makes). Lastly, the 6’6” Geronimo will also hope to improve IU’s mediocre shooting. With a wide stance and a high release, the freshman exhibited a deadeye stroke on catch and shoot threes at the high school level. But the heart of the Hoosiers resides in the frontcourt. Sophomore Trayce Jackson-Davis is ready to make his presence known to the nation. As a fellow “Davis,” I always cheer for my namesakes (it’s just uncommon enough of a name for this to make sense), and TJD puts on for the Davis brand. A 6’9” bruiser with a wide frame, Jackson-Davis looks like the type of dude who has to enter through a door sideways. Part of his game looks old school, as he outworks and out-positions his defender on the block to score in the post. But he is also super light on his feet and can throw down a thunderous dunk rolling to the hoop.
Defensively, he is a forceful shot blocker and rebounder. If he matures in awareness, he could grow into the conference’s best interior defender. The most pressing challenge for Archie will be who he pairs with TJD. He can call upon redshirt-senior Joey Brunk who started all but one game for Indiana last season. I wrote a bit about him back in February. He’s a back-to-the-basket center, whose game I described as “No flash. No gimmicks. Just focus, fundamentals, and footwork.” I stand by that assessment. Miller could also lean on the bouncy junior Race Thompson, who plays more of a face-up style. Or, as earlier stated, he could go small with Hunter at the “4” to give Jackson-Davis more space to dominate. Regardless of the starting lineup, IU will continue to control games with their defense. Smart help defenders from the wing make it difficult for teams to score in the paint. For example, against pick and roll, a big will hedge, and the helper always seems to know when to tag and erase the open look. Lastly, Indiana excels at cleaning the glass and thwarting their opponent from gaining additional opportunities; they boasted the best defensive rebounding rate in the Big Ten last season. Archie Miller will surely feel the intense glare of eyeballs across the state of Indiana, as he starts a make-or-break season. A roster stocked with both experience and young talent will make up his best team in Bloomington thus far. The defense will remain stout. But can the Hoosiers generate enough offense from the perimeter and guard spots to eventually ascend into the upper half of the Top 25? Miller will need to bring his A-game to figure out the best lineup strategies to make it all gel. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Khristian Lander (Fr.), G - Rob Phinisee (Jr.), G - Al Durham (Sr.), F - Trayce Jackson-Davis (So.), C - Joey Brunk (RSr.) Projected bench: F - Jerome Hunter (RSo.), G - Armaan Franklin (So.), G - Jordan Geronimo (Fr.), F - Race Thompson (Jr.) Strengths: interior defense, frontcourt depth Weaknesses: guard play, shooting Best player: Jackson-Davis Breakout player: Lander 22. Ohio State Deep Dive: This past fall, the tortured Ohio State fan base finally caught a couple breaks. The football team massacred their Big Ten foes, going undefeated in the conference with a +33 margin of victory; and the basketball team rose to the #2 ranking in the AP poll, notching enormous wins over Villanova, Kentucky, and on the road at North Carolina. Well, you probably know what happened next. The football team blew a 16-0 lead against Clemson in the College Football Playoffs, the incomplete pass heard round the world erased any momentum the Buckeyes tried to regain, and they missed out on a chance to challenge LSU for a title. Meanwhile, the basketball team lost six of seven from late December through January, the North Carolina win...uhhhh...lost a bit of its luster, former five-star recruit DJ Carton left the program, and Ohio State never got close to the top 5 again. However, after reeling for much of 2020, Chris Holtmann’s squad scrapped together some encouraging performances near the end of the season (Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan, Illinois), and they finished the year firmly in the field for the hypothetical Tournament. Even though no player averaged more than 14 points per game, the Buckeyes boasted a top 15 offense per the holy trinity of analytics (KenPom, Bart Torvik, and Haslametrics). Holtmann has always masterfully utilized screens in his scheme, going back to his days at Butler. Ohio State, in particular, ran a lot of actions centered around flares and pindowns--sometimes for the screener to pop out to the perimeter, sometimes to get a shooter open, and sometimes to create a lane for a guard/wing to drive downhill. Junior guard Duane Washington (in the gif above) often delivers out of these sets. At 6’3” 190 pounds, he has the strength to get to the rack, but he appears most comfortable launching a long ball while curling off of a screen. As a unit, Ohio State shot three-pointers the best out of any team in the Big Ten, making 37.3% of their attempts. Washington heavily factored into this with his 39% clip. Their shooting percentage could maintain that elite level with the addition of Harvard grad-transfer Seth Towns. One of the best transfers available this offseason, Towns is a 6’7” forward with handles. He unfurls a beautiful trey-ball that soars over the flailing arms of defenders. His shooting should translate to the Big Ten immediately; though, one concern that could plague Towns is his inability to finish at the basket. Despite making 44% of his three-point attempts, the Columbus-native shot just 41% overall from the field. Per hoop-math.com, he took 26% of his shots at the rim, making a subpar 50% of them. The jump up from the Ivy League to the Big Ten could relegate him to more of a shooting specialist role as opposed to a primary wing scorer. Nonetheless, between Washington, Towns, California transfer Justice Sueing, and incumbent point guard CJ Walker, Ohio State should manufacture enough perimeter scoring. But within their frontcourt lies a beast ready to tear off his collar: sophomore EJ Liddell. Liddell came to Columbus with some notoriety as a top-50 prospect in the class of 2020. Although his height (6’6”) would garner him an “undersized” label, his strength/width combo quickly dismantles that notion. He channels his strength into a physical style of play that draws foul upon foul--he led the Buckeyes in free throw rate last season. In the post, Liddell already has a signature move: he’ll catch the ball on the right block, take two dribbles to the left, and hit a little jumper. It’s money. His freshman season numbers aren’t all that eye-popping at 6.7 points and 3.8 rebounds. However, in all but one game in which he logged more than 20 minutes (5 games), he scored 9 or more points, notching 17 points on two different occasions. With the departure of Kaleb Wesson, Liddell won’t lack opportunity. He only hit five three-pointers last year, but that number should increase; his development in sinking pick-and-pop threes will drastically impact Ohio State’s contention for a Big Ten title. Senior big man Kyle Young, an energy guy who gleefully does all the dirty work, rounds out the starting lineup. His commitment to the grind will allow the scorers to shine. Still, Ohio State’s relative lack of depth (who is their backup point guard??) scares me a bit. Also, they lost a guy who could guard the 1 through 5 in Andre Wesson. Their defense should still be a top 30 unit that forces teams into long possessions and shuts down the lane, but I doubt they crack the top 10 in the efficiency metrics. They still have the pieces to be a second-weekend team. But Holtmann must manufacture some standard of consistency. TLDR: Projected starters: G - CJ Walker (RSr.), G - Duane Washington (Jr.), F Seth Towns (RSr.), F - EJ Liddell (So.), F - Kyle Yong (Sr.) Projected bench: G/F - Justice Sueing (Sr.), F - Musa Jallow (RJr.), G - Abel Porter (RSr.), G - Justin Ahrens (Jr.) Strengths: three-point shooting, versatile wings, interior defense Weaknesses: no go-to scorer, guard depth Best player: Liddell Breakout player: Liddell 21. Louisville Deep Dive: This year’s Louisville Cardinals are the most boom or bust team in my Top 25. Despite Chris Mack’s sterling record of consistency, the Cards’s floor could be in the ACC basement. This may surprise you, as, on paper, they appear to have a starting five that will be among the best in the ACC. But a closer look reveals that they may be overly reliant on a lead guard for offense (David Johnson), may ask too much of two grad-transfers facing an uptick in competition level (Carlik Jones and Charles Minlend), will bank on a sizable leap from a sophomore wing (Samuell Williamson), and will turn to one solid big man for major minutes without much depth behind him (Malik Williams). My gosh, could Louisville be this year’s version of the 2020 North Carolina Tar Heels? Go back and read that last sentence, but replace “David Johnson” with “Cole Anthony,” “Carlik Jones and Charles Minlend” with “Christian Keeling and Justin Pierce,” “Samuell Williamson” with “Leaky Black,” and “Malik Williams” with “Garrison Brooks.” Based on my ranking of them, you're right to assume that I view Louisville as more “boom” than "bust," but I thought it necessary to point out that a few false steps could usher in Papa John’s infamous day of reckoning that he prophesied against his alma mater. Anyway, let’s focus on the good instead of the psycho sweaty pizza man. Louisville’s defense will once again place in the upper half of the ACC, although I don’t foresee the unit posting top-30 efficiency numbers in KenPom’s adjDE, as they have the last two seasons. However, Mack will still craft a variety of defensive schemes and strategies with which to combat his opponent--they’ll range from “no middle” ball-screen icing, strict man-to-man defense, and even a splash of zone. But his signature recipe revolves around a pack-line-type style that strong-arms offenses into both long possessions and contested 2-point attempts (the Cards forced the third-most long 2s in the ACC last season, 26th most nationally, per hoop-math). Opposing ballhandlers will first have to deal with the earlier-mentioned David Johnson when trying to score on L’ville. While coming off the pine last season, Johnson's defense distinguished him from most freshmen guards. He has fluid hips and fast feet to cut off angles and contain penetration; moreover, his arms are so long that he doesn’t have to compensate by reaching and hoping to get away with a foul. I can already hear Jay Bilas lobbying for Johnson to receive his due as one of the conference’s best defenders come springtime. In regards to the rest of the starters, Williamson possesses both the length and agility to blossom into a plus defender against both “3”s and “4”s; and Williams has established himself as an overpowering presence in the paint--more so with his strength and his defensive positioning than with his shot-blocking. But as the only other experienced returners, Mack will ask much out of both of them on the defensive end, especially since neither Jones nor Minlend project as game-changers on that side of the ball. However, the two transfers will aspire to make up for their deficiencies with their offense, delivering a scoring punch from the perimeter. Mack has historically coached top-20 level offenses, but he must replace a load of output this year, most notably in three-point shooting. The Cards shot 37.6% from 3 as a team last season, good for the 15th best percentage in the country. However, they lost two snipers in Jordan Nwora and Ryan McMahon, along with two more serviceable marksmen in Darius Perry and Dwayne Sutton. Carlik Jones, who’s moving westward from Radford, could offer some assistance. However, last year was the first good shooting season of his career (his form isn’t particularly good as his knees invert as he loads up to release his shot). Thus, I'm giving him a little bit of "see it to believe it" treatment. But at the very least, his excellent court vision should enable him to serve as a secondary playmaker next to Johnson. Even though his counting stats weren’t as gaudy as Jones’s were at their former schools, I’m more sold on Charles Minlend’s ability to develop into a high-level ACC starter. The stout guard starred for a decent San Francisco team--perhaps the greatest barometer of their success can be found in a four-point loss to conference bellwether Gonzaga. Hey, that’s about all you can ask for from a West Coast Conference team! But Minlend operates best on the fast break, where he can burst free for a dunk--he’ll help maintain the high efficiency in the Cards’ transition offense. In the halfcourt, he’s a slasher who finishes strong through contact, and he also moves well without the ball. He’s a safe bet to average around 10 points and 4 boards in a complementary role. The burden of filling Nwora’s role falls upon the former McDonald’s All-American Williamson. The sophomore didn’t earn as much playing time as he or L’ville fans hoped, but that will change this season. At 6'7" , you might not expect Williamson to be especially elusive; however, when he starts charging downhill, he can slip around defenders effortlessly. Here, he reads Florida State’s Trent Forrest on his right hip and takes advantage by accelerating left; from there, he evades the ‘Noles massive rim deterrents and deftly finishes with his right: His ability to get to the cup without even needing a crafty bounce off the glass impresses. Finally, we’ll bookend it all with praise for David Johnson. His long strides propel him to the basket, where length doesn’t really faze him. As he continues to gain strength in both his upper and lower body, his prowess around the hoop will become an indispensable advantage. In addition, he makes pristine off-ball cuts (backdoor, on give-and-gos) when another Louisville player has the rock--his toasting of Duke’s Tre Jones immediately comes to mind as an example. And lastly, his passing progressed throughout conference play. Live-dribble one handed dimes may become more commonplace for him this year. Louisville has some interesting pieces that, if they mesh well, could conceivably forge into a Final Four contender. But all of things that could go wrong--transfers not living up to expectations, a serious lack of proven depth, the loss of the majority of their shooting--have me hesitant to rank them higher than the 20s. Now, Chris Mack is an excellent coach with a track record of developing unheralded players; so this roster turnover may not deter him too much. But stranger things have happened. TLDR: Projected starters: G - David Johnson (So.), G - Carlik Jones (RSr.), G - Charles Minlend (RSr.), G/F - Samuell Williamson (So.), F/C - Malik Williams (Sr.) Projected bench: G - Josh Nickelberry (So.), F - Quinn Slazinski (So.), C - Aidan Igiehon (Fr.), G - D'Andre Davis (Fr.) Strengths: They kind of have a "jack of all trades, master of none" feel to me. They'll be solid at just about everything but elite at just about nothing Weaknesses: Go back and read that "projected bench"...have you heard of any of those players? Didn't think so. Best player: Johnson Breakout player: Williamson
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Throughout a tumultuous spring, summer, and fall, the upcoming college basketball season faced obstacle after obstacle in getting off the ground. There were times in preparing these rankings where I wondered if I would have to put 'em on ice for a year and hope they would retain some relevancy. Now...I don't want to speak too soon, BUT it seems all but guaranteed that the season WILL start on November 25th, even if uncertainties still abound.
So with that being said, welcome back for Year 3 of Amateur Hour Hoops! If you've followed my writing from the beginning, you know that my preseason rankings tend to be the most comprehensive thing I work on all year. This year, I've added some new twists. For this first installment, you'll find teams 40-26. Most have 50 words or less written about them, but I have provided deep dives on five teams that I find especially intriguing. If deep dives aren't your thing (which tbh my deep dives are LOOOONG so I understand), you'll find a "Too Long, Didn't Read" summary at the end with bullet points. Who doesn't love bullet points? Teams 25-1 will be released in the coming weeks, and they all receive the deep dive treatment. Lastly, three quick disclaimers: 1) Coaches matter. Probably more than any other factor (throughout my six-part ranking reveal, you'll see that I'm higher than consensus on teams with good coaches like Houston. And I'm lower than consensus on teams with mediocre coaches like Arizona State. 2) I value the freshman-to-sophomore leap much more than the junior-to-senior leap. 3) I love the advanced metrics/analysis provided by www.kenpom.com, www.barttorvik.com, www.hoop-math.com, www.haslametrics.com, and www.three-man-weave.com. I refer to those sites a lot, and I recommend checking them out. On to the rankings! 40. Purdue These KenPom darlings (24th in his final rankings) would have been on the wrong side of the bubble in 2020 with a 16-15 record. Expect a bounce back year from the Boilermakers with one of the best coaches in the country in Matt Painter and a potential All-Big Ten First Teamer in Trevion Williams. 39. Seton Hall Lots of steady wings, an absolute unit of a big man in Sandro Mamukelashvili, and a guard who can give some Diet Myles Powell performances in Harvard transfer Bryce Aiken will keep the Hall's tournament streak alive. On the right night, the Pirates can compete with the top of the Big East. 38. Ole Miss Year three for Kermit Davis, like year three for Amateur Hour Hoops, offers hope and optimism. He landed a transfer jewel in former Arizona State big man Romello White. Also he brings in a stud frosh in guard Matthew Morrell. 37. SMU Shout out to my late grandfather Harvey Davis who taught law at SMU back in the day. The Ponies return 77.9% of last seasons minutes (per Bart Torvik) and boast one of the best offenses in the American Athletic Conference. Point guard Kendric Davis is tons of fun, but head coach Tim Jankovich needs his team to play some semblance of defense to keep his job beyond this year. 36. Stanford The Cardinal will roll out two of the conference's best shooters in freshman five-star Ziaire Williams and sophomore forward Spencer Jones (both stand at 6'7" too). They'll partner with senior big man Oscar da Silva to form the strongest front line in the Pac 12. The defense will remain staunch, but guard questions abound. 35. Texas Texas fans whenever they see themselves in any preseason rankings:
...but maybe they'll be good this year! 34. UConn Sophomore James Bouknight will make an All-American push, and if he can get a healthy Akok Akok at some point this season, the Huskies' postseason hopes skyrocket. 33. Oklahoma State Deep dive provided below 32. Auburn Deep dive provided below 31. Arizona State Deep dive provided below 30. Providence Providence ranked third in the country per Bart Torvik's metrics from February through the end of the season. Their defense suffocates opponents, and they have a true breakout candidate in junior guard David Duke. Head coach Ed Cooley must find a Luwane Pipkins replacement at the lead guard spot, or the Friars would be higher. 29. LSU (insert Will Wade joke here) 28. Richmond Deep dive provided below 27. Memphis Deep dive provided below 26. Alabama The Nate Oatspocalypse is upon us. The former Buffalo coach unleashed an uptempo assault upon the SEC last season, and it stood as a stark contrast to Avery Johnson's brand of ball. In year two in Tuscaloosa, the Tide should crack national relevancy. Senior wing John Petty is a bucket, and Villanova castoff Jahvon Quinerly (a five-star recruit once upon a time) lands in the perfect system. Analysis: 33. Oklahoma State Deep Dive: In Ol’ Billy Shakespeare’s legendary tragedy Romeo and Juliet, Romeo waxes poetically on the beauty of Juliet: “What’s in a name? That which we call a rose / By any other name would smell as sweet.” Well, I find this quote especially applicable to incoming freshman Cade Cunningham, the top recruit in the class of 2020 according to 247Sports. His parents blessed him with a name that positioned him for stardom: there are few “Cade”s in the world, plus the alliteration gives it a nice, catchy ring as it rolls off your tongue. “Cade Cunningham” just sounds cool. It isn’t hard to envision Cunningham earning first-name-only status a few years into his NBA career, much like Zion, Steph, LeBron, Kobe, Shaq, Magic, and others before him. But even if his name was Bill Jones, his game “would still smell as sweet,” as his talent elevates him so far above his peers. Every NBA draftnik that I’ve read considers him a franchise cornerstone prospect with multi-All-Star/All-NBA potential. He’s a 6’7” lead guard with few weaknesses in his game. With his frame, few opponents will have a size advantage over him, and his agility helps him stay in front of speedier guards. He even offers some rim protection, a rarity for a backcourt player. Offensively, Cunningham only needs a few dribbles to get his spots. His decisive jab steps throw defenders off, as he pulls up for a jumper or drives to the hoop. At Montverde Academy this past season, Cunningham shared the floor with four other five-star recruits, which meant he rarely needed to take over as a scorer (the team went 25-0 with an average margin of victory of 40 points. FORTY POINTS.). However, I think coach Mike Boynton will give him one of the greenest lights in the country for his (presumed) season in Stillwater. But scoring alone doesn’t make Cade special; in fact, his court vision elicits the most excitement from college basketball fans around the country. His transition passing is divine. It’s almost as if he has telepathy to know exactly where his teammates will be on the fast break. He makes crosscourt bounce passes look effortless; he charges to the basket only to make a last-second pocket pass when a defender closes in; he’ll dish behind-the-back dimes to trailing bigs. It’s phenomenal. My friend Jim Root of Three Man Weave put it best, saying “he passes to openings, not players.” Now...Cunningham’s supporting cast causes his team to rank in the thirties instead of in the top 10. His most notable teammate is his backcourt partner Isaac Likele. Likele shares a build similar to Cade: strong, compact, and tight end-esque. The two of them are almost like the Tampa Bay duo of (pre-achilles tear) OJ Howard and Rob Gronkowski. But the junior Likele feasts with the ball in his hands--he can push tempo to get to the hoop on the fast break or he can drive into the paint then find the open man in the halfcourt (4.5 assists per game in 2019-20). However, the pairing with Cunningham may take some time to iron out--Likele rarely played off ball and took 70% of his shots at the rim last season (per hoop-math.com). Due to his poor three-point shooting (3 for 14 in 2019-20), I don’t foresee Cade kicking out to him. Yet if all else fails, at least they’ll asphyxiate opposing guards on defense. (I know he misses the basket, but that's beside the point) The Cowboys also welcome in Ferron Flavors from Cal Baptist, who will supply Cade with a catch-and-shoot threat. The 6’3” grad transfer shot 43% from three on almost 7 attempts last season. Of course, climbing up to the Big 12 will undoubtedly affect his efficiency (for what it’s worth, he scored 14 points, shooting 2 for 8 from 3 against Texas). But I’d bet that we get a couple of games where he heats up, spurring some Guy Fieri "Flavortown" memes. In the frontcourt, Oklahoma State will probably rely on the Boone twins--sophomores, Keylan and Kalib. Both need to put on weight, but they do have the length to contribute defensively, especially when Boynton deploys his matchup zone. Kalib showed some sizzle down the stretch of conference play, pouring in 16 points versus Texas Tech and 14 points versus Oklahoma. Lastly, two more decorated recruits will join Cunningham at Oklahoma State: four stars Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe (wing/forward) and Rondel Walker (guard). The Canadian Moncrieffe exhibits skills that make me think he’ll have more of an immediate impact than Walker. He’s super bouncy and runs the floor, which should prime him to turn an outlet pass into an easy dunk. Plus he has the athleticism to yam over defenders in the lane. After stellar play in the non-conference portion of last season (victories over Houston, Yale, Syracuse, Ole Miss), injuries, inconsistent defense, and poor shooting derailed their hypothetical tournament hopes. However, the Cunningham - Likele pairing should at least stabilize the defense, and if Cade breathes life into their flatlined offense, they could easily rocket into the top 4 of the Big 12. Also, repeal the postseason ban @NCAA. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Cade Cunningham (Fr.), G - Isaac Likele (Jr.), G - Ferron Flavors (RSr.), F - Keylan Boone (So.), F - Kalib Boone (So.) Projected bench: G - Avery Anderson (So.), F - Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe (Fr.), G - Chris Harris, Jr. (Jr.), G - Rondel Walker (Fr.) Strengths: CADE Weaknesses: NOT CADE Best player: CADE Breakout player: CADE (and Likele) 32. Auburn Deep Dive: Even after losing all five starters from a season ago, Bruce Pearl and the Auburn Tigers find themselves knocking on the door of the Top 25 yet again. I think my faith in Auburn is a testament to the both the system and the culture that Pearl has instilled. If all the pieces fit, his teams can transform into a switchable, three-point bombing murder machine. Okay so this year’s team probably won’t match the accolades of the switchable, three-point bombing murder machine that made the 2019 Final Four, but the roster construction bears a similar resemblance. At the very least, they have enough skilled players to contend for the SEC title. Five-star freshman Sharife Cooper immediately steps in as the floor general, and the fit could not be more perfect. Cooper only stands at 6 foot, but Pearl has terrorized opponents with pint-sized point guards in the past (see: Harper, Jared). Theoretically, his size would hurt him in finishing through traffic; however, in Auburn’s five-out offense, the paint should declutter like it was controlled by Marie Kondo. Plus, Pearl has mastered coaching his forwards/bigs to seal their man to open up driving lanes for the ballhandler, which will further benefit the ambidextrous ‘Rife. The Atlanta product flummoxes foes with his pristine handle, evades defenders with his quick-twitch footwork, and unleashes unreal end-to-end speed in the open court. He may not reach these heights as a freshman, but if he sticks around Auburn, he should eventually blossom into a souped-up version of the aforementioned Harper. Cooper’s classmate JT Thor also meets the criteria for everything Pearl looks for at his position. A 6’8” forward with long arms, Thor’s springy athleticism makes him a solid shot-blocker on defense and a catch-and-dunk threat on offense. In time, he could develop in attacking closeouts, as his mid-range and three-point shot already command some attention. Thor will probably model his game after other rangy, nominal big men who played for Pearl (think Anfernee McLemore and Danjel Purifoy); but in order to match their production, he must show both the lateral quickness and the want-to to switch on the perimeter. If it clicks on the defensive end, he could make a significant impact in year one for Asgar...I mean Auburn. Surveying the rest of the roster, the Tigers will rely upon a hefty supply of unproven players. T-Pain once released a comically bad album called Thr33 Rings. Well, this season, Auburn has three wings, all of whom have performed well in spurts but have yet to receive heavy minute shares. Junior Jamal Johnson, who transferred from Memphis a season ago, has made 74 career three-pointers and seems like a lock to start. Sophomores Devan Cambridge and Allen Flanigan both lack recruiting pedigree, but they did crack the rotation last season during conference play. Cambridge turned in a couple of quasar-like eruptions, hitting 6 three-pointers against South Carolina and 7 three-pointers in a dramatic win over LSU. He did, quite oddly, connect on just 5 of his 18 free throw attempts though. Nevertheless, his shooting tools plus his 6’6” frame should give way to loads of playing time. Rounding out the frontcourt is sophomore Jaylin Williams (built like JT Thor) and centers, sophomore Babatunde Akingbola, and freshman Dylan Cardwell. Those two could be relied upon if Pearl decides he needs more size. That call likely comes down to which players improve Auburn’s defense--if the Tigers hope to get back into the national spotlight, they need to get back to forcing turnovers to power their transition game. After ranking 2nd nationally in defensive turnover rate in 2019, they fell all the way to 168th, per Bart Torvik. Defensive improvement seems more imperative...because something tells me they won’t finish 11th in the SEC in three-point percentage again. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Sharife Cooper (Fr.), G - Jamal Johnson (Jr.), G - Devan Cambridge (So.), F - Jaylin Williams (So,), F - JT Thor (Fr.) Projected bench: G - Tyrell “Turbo” Jones (So.), G - Allen Flanigan (So.), C - Babatunde Akingbola (So.), C - Dylan Cardwell (Fr.) Strengths: shooting (?), switchable defense, system success Weaknesses: depth, reliance on a lot of unproven dudes Best player: Cooper Breakout player: Cambridge 31. Arizona State Deep Dive: Publicity hasn’t surrounded the Sun Devils like this since a chubby, beardless James Harden was getting buckets in Tempe. As a mainstay in just about every media outlet’s top 20, Bobby Hurley and Arizona State find themselves full of hope and ambition. I obviously have my reservations (hence their 31st ranking), but they will be a wildly fun team, full of NBA hopefuls. There will be games where this team hits 17-plus threes and ravages their opposition in the process. Then there will be other games where they’ll go 3 for 27 from behind the arc and compound their issues by playing porous defense. Don’t be surprised to see them route Oregon on the road then turn around and lose at home to Washington State. You may be thinking, “so they’ll be your typical Pac-12 team.” But listen: their style of play combined with the "Hurley’s most talented squad" narrative will make them the most interesting team in college hoops this year. The Sun Devils thrive in transition, only play defense when they’re trying to force turnovers, and have a handful of guards who can heat up on any random night. One of those guards is Remy Martin. The senior will run the point for the Sun Devils, and while he’s a solid passer (career average of 4 assists per game), he fits firmly into the “score first” mold. Martin loves to curl off of ball-screens to pull from mid-range and from deep. Of his 43 made two-point jumpers last season, zero were assisted; of his 63 made three-pointers, only 21 were assisted. If Hurley needs a basket deep into the shot clock or in late-game situations, he can depend on Martin to create out of isolation. But--as I hinted at earlier--his shot selection yields mixed results. Against Virginia last year, he couldn’t miss, throwing up the kind of YOLO shots you launch in a pick-up game when you’re down 7+. But then he has other games where he shoots his team out of games, like during a two-game skid versus Saint Mary’s and Creighton, where he shot a combined 3-for-18. Or a 90-83 defeat to Washington at home, where he shot 2 for 14 and 1 of 10 from three. Moreover, his backcourt partner Alonzo Verge offers a similar type of streakiness. Verge averaged 14.6 points per game last season, but he scores a bit too much on tough shots for my liking. His slight frame and subpar athleticism prevent him from getting many easy baskets. Circus shot finishes at the rim and side-step mid-rangers characterize his game; those make for cool highlights but they impede consistency. Still, Hurley’s senior guard duo will keep Arizona State near the top of the Pac-12 standings. Now, there is a third guard who garners the most justification for optimism: Josh “Jaygup” Christopher. An incoming freshman from SoCal, Christopher ranks 12th nationally in 247Sports’ recruiting composite, the highest ever for a Sun Devil commit. The 6’5” guard is built like a tank and can play on or off-ball. With the rock in his hands, he uses his meteoric first step to breeze by his man before leveraging his size and athleticism to finish in traffic. Few freshmen make getting to the rim look easy, but Christopher succeeds whether driving to the right or the left. His dunks bring you to your feet even if you’re just watching on YouTube. In addition to his scoring, Christopher’s passing will enable him to serve as a secondary ballhandler next to Martin. In the half-court, he can make reads out of pick and roll (which makes up most of Arizona State’s set offense), and he can connect on skip passes and kick-outs. Plus, on the fast break, he’s an exemplary lob thrower. Jaygup mainly needs to grow in--you guessed it--shot selection; sometimes he sets his mind on driving to the hoop and defenders snuff it out. Ill-advised three-pointers dropped his percentages into the 20s on the EYBL circuit his senior year, down from the mid-30s during his junior year. However, everything I’ve read about Christopher indicates that he is beloved by his teammates and that he positively changes every team culture of which he’s been a part. Turning to the frontcourt, the Sun Devils’ bevy of nondescript forwards will hope to replicate the scoring and rebounding output of the departed Romelo White (grad-transferred to Ole Miss). Junior Taeshon Cherry and senior Kimani Lawrence are the incumbent hybrid-forwards. Both are former top 60 recruits, but both are also inefficient offensively (37% career FG for Cherry, 42% career FG for Lawrence). Sophomore Jalen Graham will fight to see more run; despite being a 6’9” broomstick, he posted a remarkable 10% block rate in limited minutes. Only one from that group likely starts, as top 30 recruit Marcus Bagley brings superior genetics (read: he’s a Bagley) and scoring acumen to his position. Regardless of how the rotation shakes out, Arizona State lacks the size provided by traditional big men. But for a team whose identity centers on running and gunning (14th in tempo per KenPom in 2019-20), I don’t think Hurley will mind too much. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Remy Martin (Sr.), G - Alonzo Verge (Sr.), G - Josh Christopher (Fr.), F - Marcus Bagley (Fr.), F - Taeshon Cherry (Jr.) Projected bench: G - Jaelen House (So.), F - Kimani Lawrence (Sr.), F - Jalen Graham (So.), G - Elias Valtonen (So.) Biggest strengths: guard play, transition game Biggest weaknesses: shot selection, post presence, defense, Hurley's coaching Best player: Martin Breakout player: Christopher 28. Richmond Deep Dive: *clears throat* AY AY AY AYYYYYYYYYYYYYY OO-OO-OO-OOOOOOOOOO That’s right. The voice of Miles Morales crooning over Rae Sremmurd and Post Malone's “Sunflower” can only mean one thing: IT’S TIME TO GO INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE. Last year, Richmond couldn’t quite stack up to conference kingpin Dayton, but they would have likely received an at-large bid to the hypothetical tournament. Going into this fall, they return every key piece from a 24-7 team and hope to burgeon into the class of the Atlantic 10. Now, admittedly, a few factors interfere with Richmond’s quest for national prominence. First, before 2019-20 Dayton, an A-10 team hadn’t finished higher than 30th on KenPom since 2014 (VCU - 25th). Second, they didn’t add any players that project as game-changing contributors. And third, they don’t have any rising sophomores ready to hit their stride. But this is the year of the unprecedented. With so many questions swirling around college basketball--how many games will each team play? What exactly is an "MTE"? Why is John Rothstein so mad about transfers?--things are bound to get crazy. So let’s get a little crazy in these rankings. One thing that is working in Richmond’s favor is their continuity. As more and more fringe NBA prospects pass up their final year(s) of college to get the bag (no hate), the crop of talent, naturally, withers. Moreover, this year more than usual, freshmen may not live up to expectations. Thus, there’s a window for upperclassmen-laden teams to ascend, even if they don’t improve that much from a season ago. Richmond’s identity centers on their Princeton offense, where their wings dart cross-court, their center cuts to the elbow (ready to receive an entry pass or set a screen), and the point guard reads the defense and initiates the action. So much of this offense flows through big man Grant Golden. The 6’10” senior is a burly looking fellow who flaunts his feathery passing touch out of the high post and from the top of the key. Whether he’s finding speedy guards in a give-and-go or running dribble hand-offs, he creates open looks for his teammates. Golden’s assist rate (28.6%) ranked 8th in the A-10, which is pretty uncommon for a center. Beyond passing, he is decent as a roll-man, can leak out to hit a mid-ranger or a three, and rebounds without tiring. But Golden would be hampered without his vivacious backcourt operating alongside him. Seniors Blake Francis and Jacob Gilyard scorched the A-10 last season; Francis asserted himself among the league’s top guards and Gilyard turned his gaudy stats into meaningful wins. If the aforementioned Oklahoma State backcourt is built like the Rob Gronkowski - OJ Howard tight end tandem, Francis and Gilyard are built more like Danny Woodhead and Dion Lewis of the Tom Brady yesteryears. But don’t mistake their lack of size for weakness. The off-guard Francis, a Wagner transfer, sinks some absolutely nutty shots. He toys with defenders, luring them with his dribble to get separation. He’ll then bomb a mid-ranger with a lefty stroke that’s smooth like Skippy. While he can proficiently create his own shot, shooting while on the move pops as one of his most advantageous strengths. He swiftly decelerates, squaring his shoulders to knock down the trey ball. Of his 66 made three-pointers, 53 came off of an assist, often out of dribble-handoff situations like the one below: Gilyard, who runs the show next to Francis, saw a dip in scoring output last year due to the addition of his new teammate. But considering Richmond upped their win total by 14, I can't envision him getting bent out of shape. He also displayed proficiency in shot selection, a theme for his career, as he converted on a ridiculous 59.7% of 2-point field goal attempts, including 67.8% at the rim. Reminder: THIS GUY IS 5’9”!! In addition, he ratcheted up his facilitation skills, averaging a career-high in assists (5.7 per game). His live-dribble passing gifts buckets to his teammates, especially in transition. Despite hyper-efficiency on offense, he racks up most of his accolades with his defense. Gilyard’s pure speed allows him to prowl off-ball like a cheetah, ready to pounce into passing lanes, taking a steal coast to coast. He averaged 3.2 steals per game (2nd highest in the nation), winning A-10 Defensive Player of the Year in the process. While Richmond may seem like the type of team that comes alive on offense and slumbers on defense, they actually posted respectable numbers on that side of the ball. In 2020, their defensive efficiency ranked 54th nationally, per KenPom--which is more than good enough to stay in the top 25 all season long. To put that in perspective, Iowa, a team commonly found in the Top 5 of preseason polls, ranked 97th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric a year ago. Part of their defensive success can be attributed to senior guard/forward Nick Sherrod, another important two-way stud. At 6’4”, 230 pounds, Sherrod has the bulk to bang with big men but can also switch onto most A-10 point guards (against VCU last season, he guarded both Marcus Evans and Marcus Santos-Silva, for example). Like a chameleon, he can adapt to whomever he matches up with. He’s also a bastion of consistency on offense--Sherrod finished at the top of the conference in three-point percentage (43%) on 78 makes, and he can finish through length down low. Edit: on the eve of posting this, Sherrod tore his ACL and will miss the 2020-21 season :( Lastly, senior forward Nathan Cayo and sophomore guard Andre Gustavson deserve mentions. Cayo rounds out the starting five, and he offers a nice blend of nimbleness and toughness on the block. In spots last season, Gustavson filled in admirably for Francis when he dealt with injuries; he seems most comfortable as a slasher who can elevate above the rim. He could fill a bigger role this year as the primary scorer off the bench. Coach Chris Mooney and Richmond have the blueprint in hand to make a pseudo-Dayton-like vault into the limelight. While no Obi Toppin type of must-watch player can be found on their roster, their experience and balance should have them as a lock for the tournament. This season could be a movie for Richmond fans--let’s just hope it’s more like MCU Spider-Man films than Toby Maguire’s Spiderman 3. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Jacob Gilyard (Sr.), G - Blake Francis (RSr.), G - Andre Gustavson (Jr.), F - Nathan Cayo (Sr.), F - Grant Golden (RSr.) Projected bench: G - Connor Crabtree (RSo.), F - Tyler Burton (So.), F - Souleymane Kourieissi (Jr.) Strengths: ball movement, shot selection, team chemistry Weaknesses: athletically limited, wing depth Best player: Gilyard Breakout player: Gustavson 27. Memphis Deep Dive: The Pendulum of Penny swings back and forth, swaying from swelled expectations to surreptitious silence. Last preseason, the Tigers came with so much hype, they should’ve run out of the tunnel in Supreme jerseys. Fast forward a year later, and nary a “Way Too Early Top 25” gave Memphis any love. Well, that’s the fallout from finishing 59th in the recruiting rankings as opposed to first. Yet Memphis still retains the majority of that top-ranked class from a season ago. Losing Precious Achiuwa (and James Wiseman, but they lost him before they even really got him) hurts. But the Tigers will still trot out a loaded frontcourt. Moussa Cisse steps in as the lone five-star freshman; and while he lacks the high-flying hops and the strength around the rim that made Achiuwa a force offensively, his shot-blocking should help Memphis stay in the upper echelon of interior defense (1st in 2p% defense per Bart Torvik last season). Joining Cisse down low will be sophomore Malcolm Dandridge and Evansville grad transfer DeAndre Williams. Dandridge played just 13 minutes per game last season, but he showed signs of rim protection brilliance, posting an absurd 84.1 defensive rating and a +6.5 defensive box plus/minus. He’s only 6’9”, but he’s a pretty massive dude--and he uses his strength functionally, battering his man out of position without fouling. On offense, he only racked up 3.4 points per game, but he flashed some as a roller in ball-screen action. He’s an underrated passer on the short roll: However, he will probably need to add some more moves to his offensive game in order to hold off Williams from taking his starting job. The grad transfer spaces the floor in a way Dandridge can’t. Williams averaged 15 points and converted on 15 of 33 triples (45%) last year. Keep in mind, he did this for a BAD Evansville team that was submarined by a coaching scandal. So there’s a chance that the uptick in competition hinders Williams from matching his low-major output. On the perimeter, Hardaway will call on two potential sophomore breakouts in DJ Jeffries and Lester Quinones. The 6’7” Jeffries can man either forward spot and scored more efficiently than any Tiger not named Precious last season (10.8 ppg on 51/39/74 splits before a late January knee injury ended his season). His three-point shot improved from high school, and he also flashed the quickness to turn the corner past speedier players: Quinones, a 6’5” powerfully built wing, entered college known for his lights-out shooting and his Chubbies-length shorts (that’s a reference pandering to my 2010s frat boy readers). His trey ball didn’t fall quite as often as Memphis fans probably hoped (36 makes at a 31% clip); however, he has a strong base, his form looks pure, and his free throw percentage (80%) indicates that positive regression is on the horizon. Last season, he demonstrated some ability to shoot off of movement, but he looked most impressive burying catch-and-shoot threes with a hand in the face. Edit: I wrote this before Virginia Tech transfer Landers Nolley received an immediate eligibility waiver. I've seen a lot of buzz heralding him as the favorite to be Memphis' best player. But after he faded down the stretch of ACC play last season, I'm more bullish on Quinones as the best wing. But the backcourt will determine the ultimate outcome for this Memphis team. In sophomores Boogie Ellis and Damion Baugh, along with junior Alex Lomax, the Tigers have three capable floor generals. I’m guessing Penny wants a lead guard who plays beyond capable, though. They all have different strengths and none are particularly well-rounded, but Baugh is my favorite to win the starting job. The 6’4” local product bedeviled opposing point guards, showing off rare defensive excellence for a freshman. As a strong iso defender, he routinely forces his man into tough shots; but he also prowls passing lanes for steals when he’s off-ball. The key to Baugh’s success will be improving on offense. While he maintains a low center of gravity, generating power as he bursts to the basket, he must show some semblance of shot creation off the dribble. And that’s the area where Ellis offers the most upside (though I must add, only 2 of his 36 three-point makes were unassisted). I was embarrassingly high on Boogie last season--I overrated his athleticism and I thought that combined with his shooting stroke lead him down the one-and-done route. Where I fell short in my analysis was in assessing how his size would translate to the college game. A little too svelte for his own good, Ellis got pushed around, especially in the lane. He shot a ghastly 33% on 2-point field goals, and anecdotally speaking, it seemed like every time he attacked the hoop he ended up on the floor as his shot rimmed out. However, he does have the former 5-star pedigree, and he exhibited moments of excellence with the ball in his hands. Penny really just needs at least one of those two to pop, as Lomax likely stays as a steadying presence off the bench. Combine that with a renewed focus on taking care of the rock (they ranked 338th in turnover percentage last season, big yikes--Lomax, Baugh, and Ellis were all major factors in this) and Memphis will have a shot at a deep run in March. They could end up making this low of a ranking look silly. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Damion Baugh (So.), G - Lester Quinones (So.), G/F Landers Nolley (RJr.), F - DJ Jeffries (So.), F- Malcolm Dandridge (So.) Projected bench: G - Boogie Ellis (So.), C - Moussa Cisse (Fr.), F - DeAndre Williams (GT), G - Tyler Lomax (Jr.), F - Lance Thomas (Sr.) Biggest strengths: interior defense, depth Biggest weaknesses: turnovers, guard play, turnovers again. Best player: Jeffries Breakout player: Quinones |
AuthorRiley Davis Archives
June 2021
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Photo used under Creative Commons from MarsInOrbit