It may be hard to believe, but we’re almost two weeks into the season that many thought would never happen. Much can and will change between now and March, but we’ve witnessed enough games to ascertain some viable info. Some teams are overachieving, some teams are underachieving, and some teams are taking longer to mesh and develop.
So I want to provide a bi-weekly check-in that recognizes teams on the ascent and scrutinizes teams in trouble. For this first installment, I’ll use my preseason rankings compared to my current rankings. For context, here's my ballot for the Reddit User Poll this week (full disclosure: I straight up forgot to put Virginia in my poll; just throw them in at 20ish). RISERS: Texas: Preseason ranking: 32; Current ranking: 7 Okay, the “Texas is Back/Not Back” bit has been meme’d into oblivion, but I think they’re actually--finally--for real this year. As has become custom, the Maui title will bring them a little extra clout, but don’t brush them off as fool's gold. The Longhorns play constricting defense and have the talent needed to sustain their current productivity. Just observe their frontcourt--they flaunt ridiculous depth with a potential lottery pick coming off the bench in Kai Jones. Though not as lauded as his freshman cohort Greg Brown, the sophomore Jones has made the greater impact so far this season. He has converted a sterling 16 of his 17 field-goal attempts, including all three of his three-pointers. In last week’s Maui championship game, Jones took (and nailed) a shot to tie it up after North Carolina took the lead late in the second half: As a 6’11” stretch big who can guard on the perimeter, Jones gives Shaka Smart a chess piece that he’s never possessed before (he also apparently shares a name with a 13-year-old skiing prodigy). Shaka and his Jheri Curl might as well start him because he isn’t getting him back next year. Michigan State: Preseason ranking: 19; Current ranking: 8 The preseason saw Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin receive more media fanfare, but Michigan State has played like the top dog of the Big Ten through two weeks. A scare from Detroit Mercy notwithstanding, the Spartans have skillfully executed on both sides of the ball. In a critical win at Duke in the Champions Classic, Sparty flashed the potential of a defensive stalwart. They held the Blue Devils to 32% from the field, forcing them into a glut of mid-rangers and three-pointers (Duke excels at neither). Junior Aaron Henry seems like he wants to steal the “Best Perimeter Defender” mantle from Kansas' Marcus Garrett: On the other end of the floor, Michigan State already looks like a seasoned unit, despite relying on key players in new roles. They rank 9th national in assist rate (per Bart Torvik), as the offense hums whether it runs through Henry, Rocket Watts, or Joey Hauser. Louisville: Preseason ranking: 34; Current ranking: 18 After a torrent of injuries rushed over Louisville, I more or less wrote them off from the nationally relevant conversation. An already thin team, ailments knocked out two projected starters (guard/forward Samuell Williamson and big man Malik Williams) and a potential starter/key reserve (guard Charles Minlend) for the start of the season. But Chris Mack and his Cardinals have rallied. Without Williams, the head coach shifted his starting group to an ultra-small unit where 6’8” redshirt-freshman Jae’Lyn Withers is the tallest player in the lineup. The added spacing has allowed guards David Johnson and Carlik Jones to feast out of high ball screens. In particular, the sophomore Johnson looks like an All-American; he showcased advanced passing and IQ as a freshman, and now he has added off-the-dribble shooting to his repertoire. Finally, freshman wing Dre Davis is invalidating his lower high school ranking (111th, per 247Sports). Rarely do you see a guy his age play with such poise and patience--Davis never looks rushed, stretches the floor, and attacks closeouts effectively. FALLERS: Kentucky: Preseason ranking: 7; Current ranking: 32 Apologies for piling on, Big Blue Nation. But my goodness, these dudes lack cohesiveness. I gave them a pass for losing to senior-laden Richmond. I gave them a pass for losing to Kansas in the Champions Classic (games that are rarely pretty, for the record). But losing to--rather, GETTING BLOWN OUT BY--the sorry Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets? Nah, fam. The play below where Terrence Clarke (who I still really like!) misses a wide open Isaiah Jackson functions as a microcosm of their issues: Of course, John Calipari still has time to optimize this roster, but they don’t feel like a team that will inevitably climb into the top 10. Memphis: Preseason ranking: 25; Current ranking: 39 The Tigers failed their first two tests versus Western Kentucky and VCU in the Crossover Classic. So far, their play indicates that they aren’t much better than last year’s pedestrian team. While they have improved slightly in ball security, the halfcourt offense continues to impede their progress. Outside of Landers Nolley, no one has scored consistently, and they’ve only shot more free throws than their opponent in one game (Central Arkansas). They still play awesome defense, but they need to figure out their roles on offense ASAP. Providence: Preseason ranking: 26; Current ranking: sub-40 The Friars made me a believer after finishing last season on a rampage. I noted this in part one of my preseason rankings, but per Bart Torvik’s metrics, they ranked as the third best team in the country from February through the end of the season. Well, fast forward eight months, and Providence has definitely NOT carried that momentum; they're sleepwalking through the non-conference like they usually do. In the Maui Invitational, they could not find any stability on offense, which led to both Indiana and Alabama running them off the floor. Against high-level opponents, their guards have faced difficulty getting to the rim, and their tundra-cold three-point shooting (20.7% as a team) has exasperated their woes. I’m not giving up on them yet--again, they tend to get the lackluster performances out of their system before Big East play starts--but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t disappointed.
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AuthorRiley Davis Archives
June 2021
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Photo used under Creative Commons from MarsInOrbit