Welcome back for Year 2 of Amateur Hour Hoops! Some of the day-one readers may remember that creating preseason rankings first got me started in the blogging game, and I plan on making this an annual endeavor.
Similar to last year, I give my analysis of teams just outside of the top 25 and teams that could have some fun storylines; then I dive into the real thing. Three quick thoughts on how I formulate my rankings, so that I don't get repetitive: 1) Coaches matter. Probably more than any other factor (throughout my five part ranking reveal, you'll see that I'm higher than consensus on teams with good coaches like Texas Tech. And I'm lower than consensus on teams with bad coaches like Maryland). 2) I value the freshman-to-sophomore leap much more than the junior-to-senior leap (see: Kansas for freshman-to-sophomore; Seton Hall for junior-to-senior). 3) I love the advanced metrics/analysis provided by www.kenpom.com, www.barttorvik.com, www.hoop-math.com, www.haslametrics.com, and www.three-man-weave.com. I refer to those sites a lot, and I recommend checking them out. Lastly, as I've said before, I write the most on teams that I watch the most. Enjoy. Teams 40-26: 40. Dayton, 39. Texas, 38. Washington, 37. Creighton, 36. Miami, 35. Colorado, 34. Michigan, 33. Marquette, 32. Auburn, 31. VCU, 30. Seton Hall, 29. Tennessee, 28. Davidson, 27. Utah State, 26. Xavier Some of Those Teams That Intrigue Me: Seton Hall: I've seen Seton Hall in the top 15 of almost every preseason ranking, but I'm not buying it. They should be a top 30 team; however, I don't believe they'll come anywhere close to earning a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. My friends over at Three Man Weave wrote a great piece breaking down the argument of "they bring everybody back" that leads most media outlets to project them as a near-elite team. Senior Myles Powell is excellent--the Pirates' guard sprays three pointers off of pull-ups and off the catch; and he stampedes into the paint like a Clydesdale, then shows the deftness of a hummingbird, finishing at the rim with either hand. Problem is...no one else is that good. If Powell pulls off a Cassius Winston-like year of carrying mostly role players to a deep tournament run, I'll take the L. Marquette: The Golden Eagles could very well be the Mercutio to Seton Hall's Romeo--a foil for those of you who forgot that type of thing from your high school English classes. They'll both be competing in the top half of the Big East standings, they both bring back a high volume scorer (senior guard, Markus Howard for Marquette), and they both don't have much shot-creation or shot-making surrounding their star. Yet they employ completely different styles of play. Whereas the defensive-minded Seton Hall relies heavily on pressuring the ball, Marquette finds its identity in a spread ball-screen offense to get shooters open and gun 3 pointers. But similar to the Hall, I think they'll just be a top 30/top 40 team. Davidson: Gotta give some love to the mid-majors, especially when they come from my home state. Over the last decade, head coach Bob McKillop has earned the reputation as an offensive mastermind--with a four guard, motion scheme, he routinely churns out units that rank in the top 30 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric. But despite winning 24 games last season, the Wildcats missed the tournament and finished 102nd in offensive efficiency, contrasted to 16th in 2018. I would attribute that mainly to inexperience, as they trotted out two freshmen in the starting lineup. That should be less of an issue this season, so I expect Davidson to be back in the field this coming March. In addition, Davidson retains their flame-throwing starting backcourt comprised of junior Kellan Grady and senior Jon Axel Gudmundsson. Grady made waves his freshman year due to the obligatory Steph comparison (he's a microwave from beyond the three-point arc, idolized Curry as a kid, and wears #31--#30 is retired at Davidson); but it was Gudmundsson who took home the Atlantic-10 Player of the Year honors last season. The Icelandic guard does everything well. He's a career 36.5% three-point shooter who averaged 16.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 4.8 assists a game last season. Unfortunately, I couldn't find any of his highlights on YouTube from 2018-19, but the highlights from his sophomore year give you a pretty good idea of his game. He looks so nonchalant as he bombs threes and throws beautiful outlet passes; to get the full effect, I recommend muting the Migos in the tape and playing some Sigur Ros, a band that also hails from his homeland, instead. Dayton: Staying in the A-10, I want to give a shoutout to the Dayton Flyers, a team that I watched once last season. But during that single game (a 72-70 loss to Rhode Island on a random Friday night in March), I remember thinking that #1 for the Flyers scored on basically every possession. Turns out that was almost true--big man Obi Toppin, a freshman at the time, filleted Rhode Island's defense in a masterful performance. He finished with an outrageous 26 point, 11 rebound, 7 assist stat line. Although Toppin's season averages of 14.4 points and 5.6 rebounds weren't quite as eye-popping, I'll be looking for a big sophomore leap. He could challenge Jon Axel Gudmundsson for A-10 Player of the Year--and I'm all in on a three-bid A-10 come tourney time (with VCU as the third team). Miami: After an uncharacteristically abysmal season for the U, I think they have a good chance to bounce back and go dancing in 2020. Last year, nothing ever really clicked in Corral Gables after the NCAA suspended their best two-way player, big man Dewan Hernandez. Sophomore point guard Chris Lykes had to shoulder the scoring load with no other dynamic playmakers on the team. But that should change this year. The U brings in 4-star combo guard Harlond Beverly, who will most likely be an immediate starter next to Lykes. Beverly was a bit of a late riser in the recruiting process, but he brims with top-notch athleticism. Additionally, he combines decent passing ability with an attacking style of play. With Lykes running the offense, Beverly should be freed up to get buckets. Miami also brings back two quality role players in three-point specialist Dejan Vasiljevic and big man Sam Waardenburg. In a move that went under the radar, the Canes also welcome in grad transfer Keith Stone from Florida. While not all-conference material, Stone is a solid stretch-4; when Lykes, Beverly, Vasiljevic, Stone, and Waardenburg share the floor together, the U will roll out a unit where all five players can shoot well from deep. The big question will be the defense--can this group execute Jim Larranaga's match-up zone? Teams 25-21: 25. Georgetown The analytics and advanced metrics do not do G'Town any favors. They finished last season ranked 108th by both Bart Torvik and Haslametrics and 100th by KenPom. Those rankings had them slotted behind teams like Wright State, Northern Kentucky, Georgia Southern, and bad power conference teams like UCLA, Texas A&M, USC (Southern Cal), and Northwestern. So why do I think this year will be different for the Hoyas? Well...I think it's partly because I've always had a slight affinity for Georgetown: 12 year-old me liked their jerseys. And 12 year-old me was also equally perplexed by and intrigued by their basketball prestige--it made no sense to me how a school without a D-1 football team could have a good basketball team. They felt a little underdog-y, and so I always found myself loosely cheering for them in March. Anyway, back to their 2019-20 outlook. Optimism for the Hoyas begins with their sophomore backcourt duo. Both point guard James Akinjo and combo guard Mac McClung possess star potential--and they flourish in head coach Patrick Ewing's high-tempo offense. As freshmen, the two combined Everest-high peaks with Mariana's Trench-level lows; but that's expected from freshmen backcourts--even ones comprised of five-star recruits (Akinjo was a low four-star, McClung was a three-star, for the record). But Akinjo gave every indication that he can run an offense at a high level. He combines exceptional passing and court vision with the ability to create his own shot. At times last year, his stepback three-point jumper looked lethal. He could improve his finishing ability in the lane, but I think that will come after a full year in a college basketball weight room. McClung rose to prominence as a YouTube/Instagram sensation, known for being a white dude who could throw down ridiculous dunks. In fact, he actually did this in a real, non-expedition, one-point game:
But he's not just a dunker--McClung executes some acrobatic finishes around the basket, switching hands mid-air with ease. He can also handle the ball a little bit, although he had 59 turnovers to 58 assists last season. His freshman year three-point percentage wasn't great (27.7%); but his form looks okay, and his free-throw percentage (79.8%) makes me think that first number will increase this year. Plus, head coach Patrick Ewing trusts his shooting touch enough to run him off of pin-down screens to bomb threes off the catch. Aside from McClung and Akinjo, the Hoyas have two other solid players in sophomore in Josh LeBlanc and redshirt junior Omer Yurtseven. The 6'7" LeBlanc serves as the "4" in Ewing's offense, and averaged a respectable 9.1 points and 7.3 rebounds last season. Although he doesn't offer much in terms of spacing (68.2% of his shot attempts came at the rim, per hoop-math.com), he's a bouncy athlete who runs the floor with both the speed and the intelligence that is rare in a big man. In addition, LeBlanc ferociously crashes the boards--he ranked fourth in the Big East in defensive rebounding percentage and fifth in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage. Yurtseven, a transfer from NC State, already boasts an All-ACC selection on his resume. The Turkish 7-footer excels as an efficient roll-man, but also can stretch his range out to the three-point line (22 made threes at a 50% clip in 2017-18 at NCSU). However, he kind of looks like his feet are filled with Cookout milkshakes instead of muscles, ligaments, and metatarsals when he plods up and down the floor...and he's not much of a defender either. But maybe coaching from one of the better defensive centers in NBA history can ameliorate his woes on that side of the ball. And improving their defense will be what moves Georgetown from a pesky team that sometimes shocks the big boys of the Big East (like Villanova and at Marquette last year) to a conference contender. They ranked a putrid 133rd in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric in 2018-19. 24. Saint Mary's Inconsistent play ravaged the Gaels' resume last season, particularly in November when they dropped four straight. Looking back at their schedule, a weird loss seemingly followed every decent win (ex: a neutral court blowout loss to Utah State, a home loss to Harvard, a road loss at Western Kentucky, an overtime loss at Pepperdine, and of course a trip into the valley of the shadow of death at Gonzaga that resulted in a 48-point decimation). However, Saint Mary's started gelling in the spring, forming into a solid basketball team--after the aforementioned sojourn to Spokane, the Gaels won 7 of their final 8 heading into the NCAA Tourney. A win over that same Gonzaga juggernaut in the West Coast Conference Championship demonstrated what happens when Saint Mary's controls the way the game is played. Head coach Randy Bennett wants his team to play sloooooow. We're talking slow slow. Like 347th-fastest-pace-in-the-country slow (per BartTorvik.com). But their slowness does not equate to a boring viewing experience. In a world of bad shot selections and contested bricks, Saint Mary's offense is a sight for sore eyes. Their sets are heavy on pick-and-rolls and pick-and-pops; and truth be told, they screen so frequently off ball that it's hard to keep track of it who's doing what. Yet whoever has the rock always looks for the right pass and the best shot. The Gaels possess some of the best patience and ball movement in the country. When the shot clock ticks down under 10 (again, which is exactly what they want), Saint Mary's has a go-to scorer in senior Jordan Ford (21.1 points per game, 48% from the field, 41% from 3, 80% from FT). The hyper-efficient guard attacks downhill like Otto Rocket mountainboarding down Bruised Man's Curve; but if an opponent tries to prevent him from getting to the rim, he's more than happy to take pull-up threes. The 6'7" Malik Fitts (15.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg in '18-'19) and 6'6" Tanner Krebs (8.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg in '18-'19) flank Ford on the wing. While the Gaels didn't add anybody especially noteworthy this offseason, they do return freshman point guard Krister Zoriks, who sat out last season due to injury. The floor general from Latvia theoretically should function as the main facilitator, while Ford plays a little more off ball. While researching for this little blurb, I found myself deep into the basketball scouting annals of YouTube, and I'm now one of the 2,213 people who have viewed Zoriks' highlights. EDIT: I wrote this preview before the NCAA granted Seattle transfer Aaron Menzies a sixth year of eligibility. The British behemoth checks in at 7'3", 265 pounds, but he hasn't played since the 2017-18 season. During his final year at Seattle, he averaged 11.3 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game. I do not know if he will start, but I imagine he will play a significant role, at least defensively. 23. NC State From November through January, basketball was on the ascent in Raleigh. The Wolfpack started 13-2 and climbed as high as 17th in KenPom's rankings and 14th in the NCAA's NET rankings. NC State's unrelenting style of play--defined by a punishing press defense and a Porsche 911-paced transition game--delivered hope straight into the cold, numb hearts of the Pack faithful. Then, like Bill Murray repeatedly stepping into the rainwater-and-debris-filled pothole in Groundhog Day, State slipped into its usual rut--a January visit from the Tar Heels, a game in which the Wolfpack never led even in front of a raucous home crowd, kicked off the misfortune. Their decline included a nagging back injury to star point guard Markell Johnson and an embarrassing early-February loss to Virginia Tech, where the Pack mustered only 24 points (yes, this was a 40 minute game with a shot clock). Despite a .500 record in the ACC, NC State's abysmal non-conference strength of schedule (353rd strongest in the country...out of 353 Division 1 teams...so the weakest in the country) doomed their postseason hopes. The season reached its nadir with a trip to the NIT. Okay...so I took a few shots at NC State. So why the optimism heading into 2019-20? For one thing, that much bad luck shouldn't hit the Wolfpack again. But I'm mainly banking on two things I noticed while watching them last year: 1) the team has clearly bought into head coach Kevin Keatts' system. 2) the players' athleticism and shotmaking ability stick out even more than the ridiculously oversized sailor-hat-wearing wolf at center court.
To expand on point one, Keatts has two guards that exert a demanding defensive effort in redshirt senior CJ Bryce and redshirt junior Devon Daniels. Bryce played under Keatts at UNC-Wilmington, and he usually initiates the defense by setting traps and pressuring the ballhandler the length of the floor. Daniels, a Utah transfer entering his second year in Raleigh, seems to feed off of steals--it's like he grows stronger with every turnover he picks off of opposing wings. After ranking 53rd in defensive turnover percentage (per Bart Torvik) in 2018, the Pack moved up to 29th in the country last season. Forcing the other team into mistakes is at the core of NC State's identity. As Keatts goes into his third season, he should be able to further instill this mindset into the players he has recruited; thus, I expect that defensive turnover percentage to continue to rise.
Regarding point two, Keatts runs a four-guard line-up, in which all four perimeter players can handle the ball and knock down open shots. The earlier-mentioned Johnson is an elite passer and an ever improving three-point shooter. Junior Braxton Beverly shines as a spot-up shooter, despite limited creation ability (see: Beverly gets shut down by Louisville's Ryan McMahon, a below-average defender). In my opinion. he would be best suited as a spark-plug 6th man--the primary scorer for the second unit. That may happen this year, as NC State brings in Pat Andree, a 6'8" grad transfer from Lehigh who averaged 12.6 points and shot 41.9% from three last season. The Wolfpack possess a surplus of talent and versatility on their roster; but consistency and mental toughness will be paramount to climbing out of the ACC's middle tier (they could also benefit from a little more innovation in their half-court offense, just saying). With an impatient fan base--one whose appetite can only be satiated with success at the sport's summit--Keatts needs a tournament win this year...or else the sands of the hourglass may start to fall. 22. Illinois I would like to introduce you to the first team of the 2019-20 season that I'm irrationally high on: the Illinois Fighting Illini. Much like Kevin Keatts at North Carolina State, Illinois coach Brad Underwood enters his third season at a school starving for a basketball resurgence. Also similar to Keatts, Underwood deploys a four-guard line-up. And again, the same as Keatts, Underwood has cut his teeth on the full-court press. While coaching at Stephen F. Austin from 2013-16, his teams' defenses frustrated its foes en route to two NCAA tournament wins in three years (over VCU in 2014 and over West Virginia in 2016). However, two years into his tenure at Illinois, Underwood has realized his pressure defense doesn't work quite as well in the Big Ten as it did in the...*googles to see Stephen F. Austin's conference*...Southland. Some nights, like the Illini's season defining 79-74 victory over Michigan State, the full-court press obfuscates the opposition, leading to 24 forced turnovers. Other nights, like an eleven point defeat at Minnesota, the defense resembles a layup line; disjointed and scattered, the perimeter players miscommunicate and fail to keep their guys in front of them. The Illini Inquirer, Illinois' 247Sports coverage site, wrote this after the Minnesota loss: "Underwood said his team gave up a handful of easy baskets on simple breakdowns in recognition and communication. ‘Quiet teams lose’ is one of Underwood’s most frequently-used sayings. 'I wish I could find a way, maybe put it in a rap song, I don’t know,' he said. Screens on the ball and off the ball gave Illinois fits in Minneapolis, and on some, it would have been simply solved by communicating and calling out a switch. 'Recognition and making that call has been a problem and it’s reared its head at the worst times,' Underwood said." The head coach adjusted, and the Illini pressed less and less as the season went on. But the addition of 4-star center Kofi Cockburn this offseason could change that. The 7-foot, 290-pound freshman out of Jamaica already looks like he's been on an NBA strength-training plan; and he projects as an anchor for the interior defense. That in turn should free up the perimeter players to thrive in Underwood's aggressive scheme. This past year, the Illini ranked 23rd in the nation in turnover generation (per Bart Torvik), despite a low overall defensive efficiency rating (108th in the country per KenPom). But as long as Underwood maintains creativity on that side of the ball, I think this could be the year where it all comes together. Illinois' offensive weapons give me even more reason to buy in to their potential for success. The Illini have a beast in 6'5" guard Ayo Dosunmu. Watching their contests, it's impossible not to fixate on his game. He breezes by defenders in transition, and can also knock down pull-up jumpers (35.3% from three last season). Underwood loves to run him off of handoffs from their bigs, where his combination of size and Diet-Coke-and-Mentos-like explosiveness makes him hard to stop when he charges into the lane.
After averaging 13.8 points, 3.3 assists, and 4 rebounds a game in 2018-19, I could see him averaging something like 17, 4, and 5 this year. There's just something about fast 6'5" combo guards that I love.
Junior Trent Frazier joins Dosunmu to form potentially the best backcourt in the Big Ten. The lefty guard plays on or off the ball, and can drain threes off the catch or off the dribble. Last season, the 6'9" Giorgi Bezhanishvili was the only starter taller than 6'5"--and the Georgian big man flashed limitless potential during his freshman year (see: a 35-point eruption vs. Rutgers). Due to his agility and soft touch around the basket, Bezhanishvili provides steadiness to the offense with scoring down low. It remains to be seen if he can play alongside Cockburn--but my bet is Brad Underwood at least tries to make them fit. "Giorgi B," as the Big Ten announcers call him, can play in the high post and put the ball on the deck, so I could see him playing the "4," while Cockburn plays the "5." 21. Alabama In one of the better hires of the offseason, Alabama lured Nate Oates away from Buffalo to be their next head coach. Oates arrives in Tuscaloosa after a five-year stint at Buffalo where he led the Bulls to four NCAA Tournament appearances, winning a game in both 2018 and 2019. Under former coach Avery Johnson, the Crimson Tide ranked 164th, 152nd, 106th, and 103rd in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric from 2016-19. That ain't gonna be the case with Oates in charge. While at Buffalo, he proved himself as one of the brilliant young offensive minds in the sport. His small-ball style revolves around pushing tempo in transition, along with ball screens, screen the screener actions, and iso in the half court. Oh yeah, and a heavy dose of three-point shooting (the Bulls shot beyond the arc on 43.6% of their shot attempts last season, 58th highest in the nation, per hoops-math.com). For Alabama, junior Herb Jones will be tasked with manning the de facto "power forward" spot in the front court. This was a critical role played by Jeremy Harris at Buffalo; Oates wants his "four" to have the handle to drive out of high post-iso and the shooting stroke to step out and hit threes. Despite generating NBA buzz going into last season (he popped up as a late first rounder in numerous mock drafts around this time a year ago), Jones has yet to exhibit a wide array of skills on offense. Take a look:
Watching the two videos, one sees why Jones would intrigue NBA execs. The dunk in the first highlight against Alabama A&M showcases his astonishing athleticism. However, he lacks a tight dribble and has hit only 13 three pointers in two years. But I think there is a chance that Oates can unlock his potential and morph it into production.
Junior John Petty and West Virginia grad transfer Beetle Bolden will join Jones on the wing. Petty, a former 5-star recruit, uses his lateral mobility and his long arms to pester opposing guards; he often initiated the point of attack on defense for Bama last season. Though not an elite shooter, he does have games where he gets hot and can't miss. In 2018-19, he drained five or more three pointers in four separate games. Bolden left the West Virginia program after a January ankle injury; but the southpaw combo guard has demonstrated prowess in shooting off the dribble and off the catch. Blessed with blazing speed, he should excel running the break in Oates's pace-and-space offense. But the biggest factor in determining the team's success will be sophomore point guard Kira Lewis, Jr. The 6'3" dynamo thrives in isolation, as he shakes off defenders with nimble footwork and a slick dribble. While running in transition, nary a guard can keep up with his pace. Although he weighs in at a slight 168 pounds, he can still finish through contact in the paint. Lewis' potential as the floor general in Oates's scheme should transform Alabama from a perennial bubble team into a top five seed. He's a preseason All-American for me.
1 Comment
you know who it is
10/7/2019 04:16:08 pm
Go Vols
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June 2021
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