Part one can be found here.
Teams 20-16: 20. Purdue As I wrote in part one of my preseason rankings, I believe the head coach matters more than almost any other factor in projecting a college basketball team's success. Recruiting victories only carry a team so far. (Example A: Johnny Jones at LSU with Ben Simmons in 2016). I have no analytical data to back this up, but it just feels like coaches are more important in college basketball than they are in any other team sport. I find myself thinking about the best coaches (both historic and current) quite often. And I'm almost ready to place Matt Painter into a prestigious tier of coaches; an enviable tier, so elusive, so elite, so eminent, that few ever achieve such an accolade. It's known as "The Roster Kinda Sucks, But The Coach Is Good Enough To Make It Work" tier or the T.R.K.S.B.T.C.I.G.E.T.M.I.W. tier for short. In the 2010s, Tom Izzo and Tony Bennett have been the poster boys for this group--they consistently bring in guys whom recruiting sites overlook, and they turn them into ballers. It's the anti-Mark Turgeon tier (dare I say, in recent years, the anti-Coach K tier?). But Painter is right there on the doorsteps, ready to barge into the T.R.K.S.B.T.C.I.G.E.T.M.I.W. party. Since losing to Chris Beard's Arkansas-Little Rock in the 2016 NCAA Tournament, the Boilermakers have ventured to three straight Sweet 16s (including an Elite 8 appearance back in March) and have captured two of the last three Big Ten regular season titles. But this year, Painter faces one of his biggest challenges yet in replacing All-American guard Carsen Edwards. Last season, the Boilermakers' offense centered on Edwards running off of screens and firing asteroids from beyond the arc. But the guard wasn't one dimensional, as he thrived with the ball in his hands and also generated easy baskets with his masterful cutting ability. Edwards' insane usage rate (an estimate of the number of plays in an offense used by one player) of 37.3% ranked fifth in the country. If you watched Purdue in the tourney, you probably saw Edwards carry the Boilermakers like Jim carried his team in the"Basketball" episode of The Office. That's...a lot to replace. But I think the Boilers' roster oozes with breakout potential. Look no further than redshirt-sophomore forward Aaron Wheeler. In 2018-19, Wheeler played only 13.5 minutes per game; but while on the court, he lurked menacingly around the rim as a shot-blocker, and he flashed rare versatility on offense. Regarding his defense, two plays from the NCAA Tournament stick out: a perfectly-timed rejection of Tennessee's hyper-athletic guard Jordan Bone in the Sweet 16: And an annihilation of Virginia's 6'8" 225 pound wing Braxton Key in the Elite 8: On offense, Wheeler has the handle to drive to the cup and the range to knock down threes (36.5% on 85 attempts). His shooting stroke will bless whomever Painter starts in the frontcourt next to him, whether that's redshirt junior Matt Haarms or sophomore Trevion Williams. Personally, I think Haarms has hit his ceiling--he's a 7'3" Goliath who can operate in both the low and high post, score about 9-10 points a game, grab some boards, and protect the rim. Williams, on the other hand, flashed the upside of an all-conference player. The 6'9" sophomore weighs in at a biiiiiig 280 pounds, and he uses his body to throttle defenders in the post; he also has a nice little floater and hook shot too. Perhaps what sets Williams apart the most is his relentless rebounding--he grabbed an outrageous 20.5% of available offensive rebounds and 25.4% of available defensive rebounds while on the floor. Both numbers would have led the Big Ten, had he played enough minutes to qualify. Junior Nojel Eastern and grad transfer Jahaad Proctor will also play key roles for Purdue. Nominally a wing, Eastern functioned more as a point guard last season, often initiating the Boilermakers' offense. While not the biggest offensive threat in the half-court, he uses his length to nab steals and then creates one-man fast breaks in transition. As one of the nation's best perimeter defenders, the 6'6" athlete can legitimately guard positions "1" through "4" (he took on both Ty Jerome and DeAndre Hunter during different parts of the Elite 8 game against Virginia). Proctor sojourns to West Lafayette from the Tar Heel State, where he averaged 19.5 points a game for Tubby Smith's High Point Panthers. This may shock you, but I've never once watched a High Point basketball game, so I'm not super familiar with Proctor's style of play. From the highlights I've watched, he looks like a straight line driver with a little bit of shooting ability off of screens and off the dribble. It's hard to imagine Proctor or Eastern filling the scoring vacancy left by Edwards. Thus, I anticipate a frontcourt-focused Purdue team known more for their defense. They ranked a solid 25th in the country in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric in 2018-19; and if that number improves, expect another deep run this spring. 19. Florida State The Seminoles' formula for success is simple--accumulate a ton of tall, athletic dudes who pride themselves on defense, then suffocate your opponent in a cyclone of limbs. Head coach Leonard Hamilton rarely recruits guards under 6'4", and he seemingly has a never-ending supply of 7-footers in his rotation; I wouldn't be surprised if he has a laboratory hidden in rural Tallahassee where he creates these guys. With such physically gifted athletes at his disposal, Hamilton deploys a pressure-heavy defensive scheme. His guards harass ball-handlers away from the basket, forcing them into wasting time off of the shot clock. From there, the 'Noles want to funnel their challengers into the lane, where their superb help defense collapses on the man with the ball. Not only does this coerce the opposition into taking a contested shot--it also creates ample opportunities for steals. Senior point guard Trent Forrest, in particular, plays phenomenal defense on and off the ball. With a slight hand, he picks pockets like a sketchy guy in Times Square. On offense, Florida State operates as a balanced, collective unit. They rarely have a player average over 16 points per game, but you'll routinely see eight or nine guys pour in 5+ points in a contest. Although Hamilton abides by this approach, he usually has a reliable guard who can hit a shot in crunch time (think Terrance Mann, Dwayne Bacon, and Malik Beasley). Yet this year, the 'Noles have a need for that go-to guy. While Forrest will serve as the senior leader, he's more of a distributor than a scorer. That's where I believe a freshman can fill the void. Patrick Williams, a 6'6" ox out of Charlotte, arrives in Tallahassee with a five-star pedigree. Moreover, Williams cited Leonard Hamilton's development of big guards like Bacon and Beasley as a primary factor in his commitment. His above the rim style of play, his propensity to force a turnover and lead the break, and his floor-spacing ability should translate to the ACC immediately. If only we had some footage of him embarrassing a future ACC foe to really whet our appetites. . .oh wait we do? Alright, let's roll the tape: In the above clip, Williams bursts by fellow five-star and Duke commit Wendell Moore (a player known for his defense) en route to putting poor #35 in a body bag. It's the kind of dunk that makes you stand up out of your seat, put your fist over your mouth, and make that surprised, awestricken facial expression (if you've even watched just one BallIsLife mixtape, you know what I'm talking about). Dude is a monster. In addition to Williams, the Seminoles' roster contains two other breakout players in sophomore guard Devin Vassell and sophomore forward Raiquan Gray. Vassell is a 6'5" three-point sniper (41% on 26 makes from beyond the arc last season) primed for a larger role as a scorer this season. Gray is a mountain, built kind of like Zion Williamson; he also wears #1, which made for a funny scene when the two of them matched up in the two FSU-Duke games last season (cue the Spider-Man meme). With his large frame and ample posterior, he overpowers defenders in the paint. But Gray also made ten three-pointers last season, and he runs the floor with an unexpected gracefulness. Lastly, from the games I watched, Gray seems to possess a high basketball IQ. He consistently makes the right pass and looks for ways to make his teammates better. Though he played only 10 minutes a game last year, I foresee that number going way up; look for him to average close to 10 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists. One final thought on Florida State: I would be remiss not to give a shoutout to freshman four-star recruit Balša Koprivica. The Serbian played his high school ball at the storied Montverde Academy, and he just looks like the prototypical FSU 7-footer. Who knows what type of impact he'll have this year--his mixtape is full of dunks and not much else--but I think he'll at least get a few minutes per game. 18. Baylor Baylor is the whole wheat bread of college hoops. They are usually legitimately good, but mad boring to watch--like how whole wheat bread is legitimately good for you, but mad boring to eat. Again, like whole wheat bread, Baylor could use some pizazz and excitement. Bread needs peanut butter, avocado, jam, or even Nutella (my Nutella hot take: it's the most overrated spread ever) to spice it up. The Bears need dynamic guard play. When I think about Scott Drew's brand of basketball, I envision a physically-imposing post player (Jo Lual-Acuil Jr., Johnathan Motley, Rico Gathers) and an inefficient gunner in the backcourt (Manu Lecomte, Al Freeman, Lester Medford). But *ESPN 30 for 30 voice* what if I told you...that the Bears may actually have a talented, consistent lead guard? During his freshman season, sophomore Jared Butler demonstrated the skill needed to run a high-level offense--one that finished 20th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric. While his freshman shooting percentages were far from amazing (39.5% from the field, 35.1% from three), reason suggests those numbers could skyrocket after a year in Drew's system. Most importantly, he has already shown the athleticism to separate from defenders and the size to score over them. This season, Butler will be aided by the return of junior forward Tristan Clark (the token physically-imposing post player). Clark missed all but 14 games of 2018-19, but he averaged almost 15 points and 7 boards when he was on the floor. But perhaps more significant than his offensive output is his defensive impact. Routinely a top 25 defense, Baylor fell to 75th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency a year ago, per KenPom. This eventually doomed them, as Gonzaga exposed the Bears' deficiencies in protecting the rim in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. In that contest, the Zags' big man Brandon Clarke ran rampant through their zone scheme, scoring 36 points. Baylor's interior D made him look like he was playing on a Little Tikes hoop. However, a healthy (Tristan) Clark combined with the progression of forward Freddie Gillespie (a D-III transfer now in his second year with the Bears) should ameliorate their issues in guarding star frontcourt players. While Clark's injury led Drew to play smaller line-ups than normal, their offensive rebounding did not suffer at all. A mainstay in the top 10 in offensive rebounding percentage, Baylor grabbed an astounding 37.9% of their own misses, ranking second in the country, per Bart Torvik. This was all without anyone taller than 6'7" in their starting line-up for most of the season. Their success on the glass can be attributed to junior Mark Vital. Although the 6'5" Vital primarily manned the power forward position this past season, I don't think it's fitting to call him a "small-ball 4." Though not the tallest, he is definitely not small. I mean, just look at this man. In Waco, they breed 'em beefy. The bouncy Vital throws his weight around as he snatches rebounds--he averaged 7.2 per game and led the Big 12 in offensive rebounding rate. This makes me believe that his diet consists of three things: brisket, (Whata)burgers, and boards.
17. LSU
From March to May, Will Wade's journey at LSU went from that of a jon boat leisurely cruising down a marsh in Baton Rouge to a dinghy thrashed to and fro by the violent waves of the NCAA's storm of allegations. Well, sort of. Yes, accusations of paying recruits surfaced. Yes, the university suspended him from his coaching duties for the SEC and NCAA Tournaments. Yes, he delivered one of the most awkward and embarrassing interviews ever in the aftermath. But fast forward to this season, and the head coach of the LSU men's basketball team is. . . still Frank Williams Wade. Look...I don't really care whether or not he dropped the bag for some players. There are plenty of other sports/media outlets that give their opinion on all of that. I do, however, think it's pretty funny he didn't get fired. But it underscores what a brilliant basketball coach he is. Thus, let's get into their season outlook. Although the Tigers have to replace First Team All-SEC point guard Tremont Waters, they return two studs as starters in the back court. Senior Skylar Mays and sophomore Javonte Smart will aim to make up for lost production. Neither has Waters' passing ability, but they'll likely alternate point guard duties until one emerges as the better facilitator. Mays has proven himself as a plus athlete, a crafty finisher in the lane, and a decent three-point shooter over his three seasons in purple and gold. He also earned Second Team All-SEC honors last year. However, my bet is on Smart to become LSU's alpha dog. After averaging a respectable 11.1 points and 2.4 assists last year, Smart will set his sights on a sizable sophomore leap. In the one game Waters missed due to injury last season (a February win over Tennessee), the then-freshman erupted for 29 points and 5 assists. With an explosive first step, Smart repeatedly breezed by the Vols' Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden, two of the better guard stoppers in the country. In the frontcourt, Smart's classmates Darius Days and Emmitt Williams (former four and five-star recruits, respectively) will continue to improve, coming off of promising freshman seasons. They both only stand at 6'6", but their height doesn't really hinder them. The duo demonstrated exquisite skill in attacking the glass last season. As soon as a shot goes up, they show the type of dedication to boxing out that you only expect to see in the Big Ten. Their prowess on the boards contributed to LSU ranking 9th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, per Bart Torvik. Offensively, Williams fits the profile of a dogged roll-man. He took 60.6% of his field goal attempts at the rim, making 75.6% of those shots, per hoop-math.com. Most front court players can't keep up with his speed, as he shakes off defenders while barreling to the hoop on pick-and-rolls. Days offers more versatility than Williams, as he can play the "3," the "4," and apparently now, the "5." He torments opposing big men in space with his penchant for getting open on the perimeter and knocking down threes; in LSU's second round tournament win over Maryland, neither of the Terps' star post players (Bruno Fernando, a 2019 second round pick to the Atlanta Hawks, and Jalen Smith, a projected 2020 first round pick) could track him down. If Days can provide quality minutes at the "5," LSU becomes a serious threat to repeat as SEC Champions, as they currently lack a proven screen-setting, shot-blocking presence down low. The lack of size on the Tigers' roster is the one thing that prevents me from ranking them higher. However, their tallest player could emerge as their best player. Five-star freshman and McDonald's All-American Trendon Watford already has an NBA body at 6'9", 230 pounds. The versatile forward moves like a gazelle in transition before slashing through the lane. He comfortably handles the ball on the break, and he possesses excellent court vision for a player his size. If Wade plays a lineup of Smart, Mays, Watford, Days, and Williams, we will see a college team test just how far "positionless basketball" can go. 16. Maryland I figured that 16 was the perfect ranking for the Terps--as long as Mark Turgeon is their coach, their ceiling is no higher than the Sweet 16. I've just seen Turgeon squander so much talent. The 2015-16 season always sticks out to me--despite boasting a roster with seven top-100 recruits, Maryland's year came to an end when they got blasted by Kansas...in the Sweet 16.
Former Terrapins and current NBA players Kevin Huerter, Justin Jackson, and Bruno Fernando (all in their first or second year in the Association) all left College Park without ever making it to the second weekend. So yeah, I don't expect this to be the year that Turgeon breaks through, even with most sports publications projecting the Terrapins as a top 10 team.
The hype around Maryland starts with burgeoning sophomore forward Jalen "Stix" Smith. After spurning the NBA draft, Smith is a popular dark horse candidate to challenge Michigan State's Cassius Winston for Big Ten Play of the Year honors. His game basically consists of blocking shots, turning outlet passes into easy dunks, and catching the ball in the high post and telling defenders to get out of his way. In the midst of my skepticism towards his team, I must admit he's a beast. He even showed a liiiiiiiiittle bit of three-point range towards the end of the season. And he wears rec-specs. Much respect to the rec-specs. Beyond Smith, much of the excitement surrounding Maryland derives from a group of high-upside underclassmen. As freshmen, sophomore guards Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins both drained over 40% of their three point attempts; and this year, they should add to their respective scoring averages of 8.6 and 8.3. Wiggins, in particular, has garnered some NBA interest, as a vertically-gifted athlete who moves well without the ball in his hands. In addition to the rising sophomores, Turgeon welcomes two four-star centers in Makhi Mitchell and Chol Marial. Mitchell's scouting report is pretty generic: "decent athlete," "good feet," "can score with back to the basket" (from 247Sports). But Marial, like I mentioned with FSU's Balša Koprivica, intrigues me, being that he's also as a massive international prospect. Peep that wingspan.
I don't know if he's actually good at basketball...and he's currently recovering from surgery for stress fractures in both of his legs and may not play until late December (nope, nuh-uh, doesn't sound problematic for a big man, not at all). But I'm ready to see the Sudanese sultan spike a ball into the mezzanine.
Lastly, senior lead guard Anthony Cowan returns as the experienced leader, the steady hand, and the crunch time scorer. Though not the most efficient, the senior still averaged over 15 points and 4 assists per game in both of the last two seasons. And yet, even after earning Second Team All-Big Ten accolades in 2019, the only Maryland fan I know described Cowan verbatim as "so overrated." Again, these are the reasons why I'm lower than consensus on Maryland--I don't believe in the roster as much as most of the media, and I've already bemoaned and belittled Turgeon enough for one blurb. The Terrapins will most likely be good not great, stay in the top five of the Big Ten, and the top 20 of both KenPom's rankings and the AP Top 25. But I wouldn't expect any exhilarating tournament runs.
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June 2021
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