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Teams 15-11: 15. Arizona Once a team that dwelled in college basketball's upper echelon, Arizona reached three Elite 8s in a five year span from 2011 through 2015. Yet it feels like centuries have passed since the Desert Cats have been relevant--relevant for anything other than a FBI/pay-for-play scandal, that is. Now--the actions that gave way to scandal have consistently landed 'Zona top recruits. But recently, these highly-ranked classes have netted mixed results (i.e. first-round tournament exits). Most often, the Wildcats have faltered due to a dearth of defensive discipline, playmaking guards, and chemistry. But this year, Arizona may rid themselves of those deficiencies. In 2014 and 2015, when Sean Miller led his team to back-to-back Elite 8s, his squads ranked first and third, respectively, in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. Observing more closely, their defense against 2-point field goal attempts placed second nationally in 2014 and eighteenth nationally in 2015, per Bart Torvik. But that number has plummeted over the last four seasons. Five-star freshman Zeke Nnaji faces the expectation of reviving rim protection in Tuscon. Throughout the offseason, Nnaji's coaches have praised his versatility, his work ethic, and yes, his defensive aptitude. Miller said this in late August: "I think that when you talk about a ceiling, the sky’s the limit for him. He’s going to play both frontcourt positions, and I think on defense, he’s really adept, quick, strong, physical. He’s a guy who can block a shot but he’s also a guy who would be more than capable of guarding a smaller, quicker player." Although he lacks the fanfare of the two other five-stars in his class (more on them later), Nnaji wields the power to change his team's trajectory from a top-four Pac 12 team to a top ten team in the country (with an itty-bitty semi-legitimate chance at the national title). But if he doesn't learn quickly, 'Zona will have to rely too much on forwards Chase Jeter (a solid yet unspectacular former Dukie) and Ira Lee ("whose heart is bigger than his talent," to allude to Clark Griswold talking about his cousin Eddie.). Now about Nnaji's fellow five-star classmates--that's where the Cats will fill their "playmaking guard" void. Josh Green, a 6'6" wing out of Australia, arrives on campus with the reputation of an elite slasher with kangaroo-like hops. His biggest asset will be his transition offense, as he will either lead the fast break himself or catch lobs from Arizona's most highly-touted recruit, Nico Mannion. Many jokes have been made about Mannion's porcelain complexion and auburn hair. So I'll focus more on his game: he is N A S T Y. Since the days of TJ McConnell, the Wildcats have desperately missed a high-level floor general--and Nico meets that need. He combines graceful body control and a polished shooting touch with masterful court vision and pinpoint passes. Currently projected as a lottery pick, Mannion could easily win Pac-12 Player of the Year honors. More importantly, he'll bring some fun to the nondescript west coast college basketball scene. That last hindrance to Arizona's success--team chemistry--will take a little longer to sort out. In addition to the earlier-mentioned freshmen, Miller also brings in two grad-transfers in 5'10" guard Max Hazzard from UC-Irvine and 6'9" forward Stone Gettings from Cornell (by far the best names of any transfer duo in the country). So the coach has to hem plenty of new pieces into the fabric of his roster. Making matters more difficult, the Wildcats already lost their best player from a year ago, guard Brandon Williams, to an ACL tear. But the talent should eventually gel...however, if it doesn't, Arizona fans will always have this little limerick I wrote: when the FBI tried to bust them (and Adidas) for RICO, Sean Miller said, "Nah, I'm good. Let me land NICO." 14. Villanova In the year of our Lord 2004, I was an angsty 6th grader, wandering through a cold, cruel middle school world. Naturally, I turned to heavy music to soothe my soul. That led me to the metalcore titans Underoath, who released their breakthrough album They’re Only Chasing Safety that same year. The record featured an absolute banger called “It’s Dangerous Business Walking Out Your Front Door,” which helped catapult them into stardom (or at least as much stardom as a metal band can achieve). I reference “It’s Dangerous Business Walking Out Your Front Door,” because it’s also dangerous business betting against the Salt and Pepper Savant, Jay Wright. But here I am, a good bit lower than consensus on Nova, who’s almost unanimously regarded as a top 10 team entering the season. They bring in an awesome recruiting class—but I’m not sure the rest of their roster has the strength of a surefire national championship contender. Much of my skepticism hinges on Collin Gillespie as their starting point guard. Though he looks like Ryan Arcidiacano, he is NOT Ryan Arcidiacano. He lacks both the shot creation and the defensive chops of the former Villanova guard. While Gillespie excels as a catch-and-shoot threat, he has limitations in initiating and running the offense. Last season, he benefited playing next to Phil Booth, who terrorized the Big East as Nova’s lead guard, and alongside Eric Paschall, an All-Big East "big man" who really played more on the perimeter. Nova's season outlook heavily depends on replacing their scoring production. Five-star freshman combo guard Bryan Antoine will alleviate some of those concerns. Antoine reminds me of former Villanova star and 2018 NCAA Tournament MOP, Donte DiVencenzo; his vertical bounce, his strength around the rim, and his passing out of pick-and-roll call to mind images of DiVencenzo's final season in Philadelphia. While it would be unfair to expect him to shoot the long ball as skillfully as DiVencenzo, he did hit threes at 38% clip on the AAU circuit this past spring. Unfortunately, Wright and the Wildcats expect Antoine to be out until December, as he recovers from offseason shoulder surgery. If not for his injury, I would have Nova ranked a few spots higher. Antoine's classmate Jeremiah Robinson-Earl also comes to Philly with a five-star pedigree. The 6'9" forward out of Kansas will thrive as Wright's key big man in his 4-out 1-in offense. When the casual fan hears "Villanova's offense," he or she probably only thinks of three-point shooting. However, the off-ball movement of Nova's forwards is equally as important. A typical set calls for one forward to run from the block to the three-point line, while the other forward sets a pick for the ballhandler at the top of the key. The screening forward then rolls to the basket, forcing the first forward's defender to make a choice: stay on his man leaking out to perimeter and sacrifice help in the paint, or switch on to the roll-man and allow an open three. The results usually look something like this: Watch any Villanova highlights and you'll see them execute these slip screens to perfection. And because of Robinson-Earl's shooting range and his thunderous dunking ability, he can fill either forward position. Wright could play him out on the perimeter with bruising junior Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree in the post (I dub this duo "The Dash Brothers"); or Robinson-Earl could work closer to the hoop as 6'8" sophomore Saddiq Bey provides the spacing. Another sophomore, 6'10" Cole Swider, will also bolster the front court. Despite being labeled as a "stretch 4" coming out of high school, Swider only converted on 28% of his three-point attempts last season. But he has a quick, high release that indicates his percentage could jump up to the mid-to-high 30s. Plus, come on, he's under the tutelage of the Villanova coaching staff. Lastly, Nova must improve upon their mediocre defense from a season ago. After three straight years of ranking in the top 12 of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric, the Wildcats fell all the way down to 81st in 2019. Bart Torvik's metrics weren't any more forgiving--by his analysis, Villanova ranked 149th in two-point defense and 170th in three-point defense. With how much they lost after their 2018 championship run, this kind of regression wasn't that surprising. But if Villanova wants to be in the 1 and 2 seed conversation, they must get their defensive swagger back. 13. Memphis Here's one for speculation. A season into Penny Hardaway's coaching tenure, we know two things: 1) He's an incredible recruiter. Look at any college basketball site if you didn't know that. 2) He wants his team to play fast (ranked 7th in KenPom's tempo metric in 2018-19). That's it. That's all we know. (I didn't watch Memphis last year). But this year, those recruiting efforts have yielded dividends. The nation's top class resides in west Tennessee. Penny landed a sharpshooting maestro in 6'5" Lester Quinones (four-star, ranked 58th in 247Sports' recruiting composite), a scoring wing in 6'7" D.J. Jeffries (four-star, ranked 52nd), and a freakishly athletic forward who can play on the perimeter and in the post in 6'9" Precious Achiuwa (five-star, ranked 15th). And that's not even mentioning the two guys I'm most intrigued by: 7'1" James Wiseman (five-star, ranked 1st) and 6'3" Boogie Ellis (four-star, ranked 38th). NBA journalists and NBA scouts all agree that if the draft happened today, a team would undoubtedly take Wiseman in the top 5. His fluid strides and nimble footwork set him apart from typical seven-footers. Some big men trudge down the court--others gallop; Wiseman does the latter. The way he runs the floor, often finishing with a dunk in transition, reminds me of prime Kevin Garnett (from what I've seen of him, I think a modern, floor-stretching version of Garnett is his best-case-scenario NBA comparison). Offensively, Wiseman already possesses an advanced shooting touch. The lefty dominates in pick-and-pop and has stretched his range out to the three-point line. And though it's tough to project the handle of high school big men, he has showcased some guard-like dribble moves. Here's a clip of Wiseman from this year's Peach Jam, the big summer tournament that Nike puts on for their EYBL AAU circuit: Reminder, this dude is 7'1". But even with two lottery-type talents in the front court in Wiseman and Achiuwa, they will need a perimeter player to facilitate and feed them. That's where Boogie comes in. Originally a Duke commit, Ellis spurned Coach K in May after Tre Jones announced his return to Durham. Penny swooped in, and sold him on the notion of running the offense for the Tigers. I can't blame him--if I'm a top lead guard, do I want to learn under a former superstar, All-NBA point guard or a cantankerous old man who dyes his hair jet black? Okay, I'll go back to being unbiased; sorry, had to throw in a Duke dig for my Carolina people. But I do think Penny's development of Ellis will be fun to watch. Known for his quickness and his outside shooting, Boogie is malleable clay for Hardaway to shape into his own likeness. It seems like every year, a lead guard ranked in the mid-20s to mid-30s emerges and becomes a first rounder or even a lottery pick (Dejounte Murray, Donovan Mitchell, Trae Young, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Coby White, for example); since he was the most recent one to do it, we'll call this type of player the "Coby White Candidate." Ellis is a prime Coby White Candidate for the 2019 class.
I'm always a little skeptical of teams overly reliant on freshmen, which is why I don't have Memphis in the top 10 like some media outlets; but they have the depth and certainly the talent to make headlines all season. 12. Oregon Dana Altman enters the 2019-20 season facing many of the same questions that surrounded him last year: N'Faly Dante, another five-star center, committed to the Ducks this summer; and through the transfer wire and other recruiting wins, Oregon acquired enough talent to complement Dante and senior point guard Payton Pritchard. But without much roster carryover, how long will it take for this team to mesh? Their postseason success may have blocked this nicety from your memory, but Oregon was TRASH for most of last season. Garbage. Rubbish. Doo doo. In late February, they were 15-12 in the abysmal Pac-12, fresh off of a loss to coach-less UCLA. But after fumbling around for three months, the team's pieces finally fell into place--much like when the kids in the Nickelodeon gem Legends of the Hidden Temple would successfully assemble the Shrine of the Silver Monkey, after inexplicably struggling with its three simple parts. The Ducks proceeded to win ten games in a row, losing only to the eventual national champs, Virginia, in the Sweet 16. So...what can we expect from Oregon this year? Was last season's run through March mere luck? Or was it foreshadowing the emergence of a force out west in Nike's Mecca? Well, observing the Ducks' roster, I cannot help but notice a slew of similarities to the 2017 team that made the Final Four. Altman's offense functions best when he employs two guards who can both run the point. In 2017, he used Payton Pritchard and Dylan Ennis in these roles. This year, JUCO transfer Chris Duarte will run alongside Pritchard. Although Pritchard looks like the consummate "not flashy, but has all the intangibles" point guard (read: he's white), his game is pretty saucy. Look no further than these two electrifying plays from Oregon's second round win over Wisconsin.
The senior's dominance during the Ducks' ten game winning streak (16.3 points, 5.4 assists per game) leads me to believe that an All-American season could be in store. He thrives with the ball in his hands, scoring off the dribble and setting up his teammates; but he also possesses the skill to get open off-ball. That's where Duarte will take advantage of his time leading the offense, The fine folks at Three Man Weave highlighted Duarte's upside in their Oregon preview, where they noted his legitimate NBA buzz among scouts and evaluators. Here is the Weave's Matt Cox's description of his style of play: "Duarte’s skill and athleticism combination jumps off the screen when you watch his game tape, but it’s his positional versatility that leads me to believe he’ll flourish at Oregon playing alongside Pritchard. He’s a true combo guard with the size and scoring chops to play off-the-ball, but can also slide over to the point if Altman wants to run Pritchard off screens. At Northwest Florida State, Duarte averaged 19.0 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks a game while shooting 54% from the floor (40% 3-point range)." New Mexico transfer Anthony Mathis will round out Oregon's three-guard lineup. The 6'3" playmaker boasts a career 41.3 three-point percentage, so I foresee him being this team's version of Tyler Dorsey. Another transfer, Shakur Juiston from UNLV, will likely start in the frontcourt--to continue the Final Four team comparison, he'll kind of function like the versatile wing/power forward Dillon Brooks. Juiston is not on Brooks's level as a scorer or a creator, but he will space the floor, grab boards, and facilitate some out of the post (2 assists per game for UNLV last season). The aforementioned Dante will hope to impact games like forward/center Jordan Bell did over the course of Oregon's Final Four run. The freshman out of Mali (by way of Kansas) stands at an imposing 6'11" with a seraphim-like 7'5" wingspan. Though Bell departed Eugene with a sterling resumé, Dante could be even better. His potential resembles that of a defensive cornerstone and a probable NBA lottery pick. In this year's Peach Jam, Dante led his team to a championship and won MVP honors in the process. While scrolling through the WatchESPN app on a random June afternoon, I actually stumbled upon the title game and immediately noticed his two-way prowess; it seemed like he was involved on every play, and he finished with a 22 point, 18 rebound stat line. Dante's ceiling is as high as *googles mountains in Oregon to deliver a clever simile* Mount Hood.
A deep bench will supplement the Ducks' rotation. Sophomore guard Will Richardson (a former top 50 recruit), freak athlete freshman forward CJ Walker (a top 30 recruit), and freshman wing Addison Patterson (the top-ranked player out of Canada) will all play big minutes. Finally, I expect Oregon's defense to be a top ten unit nationally. Altman runs a hybrid scheme--one that initiates pressure in a 2-3 matchup zone, stifling opponents into wasting precious seconds off the shot clock; then, when the shot clock hits 10, the Ducks switch to man-to-man. So few teams possess the discipline to play multiple defenses on one possession, and this versatility continually confuses other teams. With Dante protecting the rim, and a bevy of athletic wings prowling for steals out of the zone, there will be no open season in Eugene, Oregon, this year. EDIT: I wrote this blurb before the NCAA announced that N'Faly Dante will not be eligible until December. Overall, this doesn't affect their long term outlook too much, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Oregon appeal the ruling. 11. Virginia Last season, Virginia accomplished something that had never been done in program history (winning the National Championship--you may remember this). And yet, even after hanging their first banner, they find themselves in a familiar position heading into 2020. Three and a half years ago, fresh off of his first Elite 8 appearance, Tony Bennett had to retool his roster around a highly-regarded recruiting class. The Hoos' two best players Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill (shout out to the Charlotte Christian class of 2011) had just graduated, while top-100 recruits Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, and DeAndre Hunter had just enrolled. Fast forward to 2019, and Guy, Jerome, and Hunter have all moved on to the NBA, with some icy, new jewelry on their fingers. And again, Bennett reloads with a couple of top-100 freshmen in guard Casey Morsell and forward Kadin Shedrick. Back in 2017, Virginia made the Sweet 16 as a 5-seed, also finishing 5th in the ACC. The defense, as is custom, ranked 2nd in the nation, per KenPom. Offensively, they experienced growing pains, but Guy and Jerome both demonstrated the sizzle that soon swelled into substance. I believe that season gives us an idea of the floor for the current team. Bennett's patented pack-line defense should again be top 5 in the country; but due to more experience and continuity on the roster, I expect that this year's rendition of Virginia will be better than the 2017 version. Yet the offense still contains plenty of unknowns, which prevents me from ranking them higher. Sophomore point guard Kihei Clark shined as a complimentary piece next to Guy, Hunter, and Jerome. But without that terrifying trio taking on the scoring load, how will he respond? At 5’9”, Clark lacks the size of the prototypical Virginia lead guard. Both Brogdon and Jerome, for example, stand at 6’5”. In addition to their deadeye shooting, their stature helped increase their effectiveness on dribble drives. Meanwhile, Clark shot a dismal 35% from the field last season, and an even more putrid 33% during ACC play. Although...I should make the point that Clark is GOOD--I mean, he did start for a national championship team. Last year, he showcased good quickness, great decision making, and a penchant for throwing passes that slash through traffic like a weaving motorcyclist. Whether or not he can make that critical freshman-to-sophomore leap will play a huge role in Virginia contending for another Final Four berth. Flanking Clark will be either Morsell or JUCO transfer Tomas Woldetensae, who was a National Junior College Athletic Association (NJCAA) All-American last season. Twenty seconds into watching a highlight mix of Woldy (that’s what I like to call him), I fell in love. The entrancing footwork. The effortless jumper. The exquisite 2002 Justin Guarini-style hair. After leading Indian Hills in scoring, while converting on 47.7% (!!!) of his three-point attempts, his JUCO coach had this to say about his best player: “Just like a lot of European guards (Woldentensae is Italian), he knows the game really well. He wants to make his teammates better. He wants to play with other good players. He wants to play basketball ‘the right way’. Growing up in Europe, he watches the professional style and the ball moves and it’s not really about what you score but it’s about your team moving the ball and sharing it and everybody getting touches. I think he really enjoys playing that way. But we wanted him to be a lot more aggressive this year, and he really grew into that role to where he was comfortable being the go-to guy. Any time he could get his three-point shot off, and then he’d mix in attacking the basket and scoring in some different ways. He’s developed a knack for scoring the ball at a very high level, and I think he’s really improved to the point where he can be an impact player at any level.” "Wants to make his teammates better." "Wants to play basketball 'the right way.'" "It's not really about what you score, but it's about your team moving the ball...I think he really enjoys playing that way." Yep, sounds like the epitome of a Virginia player to me. It’s hard to know the skill level of his competition at the JUCO level, but it’s easy to envision Woldentensae shooting off of flare screens in Bennett’s blocker-mover offense. I really want Woldy to be great--and that quote from his former coach increases my confidence in him. While the backcourt contains several uncertainties, we do know a little bit of what to expect from the big men. We’ve seen Tony Bennett feature his post players in the past--Gill and Mike Scott come to mind--but it is somewhat rare for him to do so. However, I think redshirt junior Jay Huff and senior Mamadi Diakite will play impressively on both ends of the floor. In a post I wrote this past February, I declared my undying adoration for Huff after he dunked over RJ Barrett. And I think he could be on the verge a breakout as a floor-stretching 7-footer, the first of his kind in Charlottesville. Diakite, on the other hand, rocketed into the limelight during the Big Dance. The college basketball world witnessed the extent of his powers as he averaged 10.5 points, 8.2 boards, and 2.6 blocks over Virginia's six tournament games. He is incredible at creating separation with screens both on and off the ball. When he rolls to the basket, you might as well back off and save your energy, because he's dunking that thang. And as he showed on the tournament's most famous buzzer beater, he has a velvety mid-range shot. Oh, and about his defense... That's him stuffing Texas Tech's Jarrett Culver, the sixth pick in this summer's NBA draft. Last year, he finished third in the ACC in both defensive box plus/minus and block percentage. As the heartbeat of the pack-line, Diakite is about as sure of an All-ACC First Teamer as you will find. Every year, the champ seems to lose a ton—when players reach the pinnacle of the sport, who can blame them for leaving even if they’re only a fringe NBA prospect? Of course, UVA’s smothering defense will keep them in the Top 25 all year long. But how Virginia performs and progresses offensively will be one of the more intriguing storylines.
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AuthorRiley Davis Archives
June 2021
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