The initial wave of "Way Too Early Top 25s" has passed, but as player movement has slowed down, now feels as appropriate as ever to post some rankings. But I'm gonna take a page from the playbook of my guys at Three Man Weave--this is a perfectly normally timed top 25 ballot. So we'll call it a rough draft, as rankings will surely fluctuate between now and November. But for now, there's no harm in highlighting the teams that ooze with promise.
1. Gonzaga Projected departures: Jalen Suggs (draft), Corey Kispert (draft), Joel Ayayi (draft), Aaron Cook (transfer) Pavel Zakharov (transfer), Oumar Ballo (transfer) Projected additions: Hunter Sallis, Chet Holmgren, Nolan Hickman, Kaden Perry, Rasir Bolton (transfer)
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An abysmal title game notwithstanding, Drew Time returns as the favorite for NPOY. His running mate will be number 1 recruit Chet Holmgren, whom 247Sports compares to Anthony Davis…and oddly enough, that's not preposterous! Holmgren boasts a crafty handle for a 7-footer, and he shows off expertise as a shot blocker. In addition, the Zags' LOADED guard corps will only aid the two bellwethers in the frontcourt. 2. Alabama Projected departures: Herb Jones (draft), John Petty (draft), Alex Reese (graduation), Jordan Bruner (graduation), Projected additions: JD Davison, Charles Bediako, Jusuan Holt, Nimari Burnett (transfer), Noah Gurley (transfer)
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Nate Oats has accumulated a ridiculous amount of guard depth for his third season in Tuscaloosa. The flashy Jahvon Quinerly is the favorite for SEC POTY, as he perfectly blends shot-creation and playmaking for others. Meanwhile, sophomore Josh Primo (draft decision pending) and freshman JD Davison will try to dunk on everybody. Lastly, former five-star Nimari Burnett will hope to benefit from Oats's point guard magic, as he likely assumes Quinerly's old sixth man role. 3. Kentucky Projected departures: BJ Boston (draft), Isaiah Jackson (draft), Olivier Sarr (graduation), Devin Askew (transfer), Cam'Ron Fletcher (transfer), RIP TClarke Projected additions: TyTy Washington, Daimion Collins, Kellan Grady (transfer), CJ Fredrick (transfer), Oscar Tshiebwe (transfer), Sahvir Wheeler (transfer)
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Get ready for #PortalCal. For the better part of his career, the head coach has cut his teeth on resetting every year with a new crop of freshmen—and that method has yielded a harvest of success. Now, he’s repeating that same formula, only with players who have already notched some D-1 experience. Seems like a smart strategy. After watching a dismal offense all of last season, Calipari landed two of the best shooters in the portal in Kellan Grady (Davidson) and CJ Fredrick (Iowa). Tying it all together will be TyTy Washington—one of my favorite players in the class of 2021. Washington generates his own offense but also controls the game like an old-school point guard. 4. Purdue Projected departures: Aaron Wheeler (transfer) Projected additions: Trey Kaufman, Caleb Furst
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Fresh off of a season where they ranked 26th in KenPom’s adjOE, Purdue should climb even higher as their freshman/redshirt-freshman classes look to make that second year leap. Matt Painter has surrounded the heralded Trevion Williams with shooters up and down the roster, and sophomore Jaden Ivey flashed the attributes of a bucket-getting lead guard late last season. 5. Ohio State Projected departures: CJ Walker (graduation), Musa Jallow (transfer) Projected additions: Jamari Wheeler (transfer), Malaki Branham
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The Buckeyes flaunt the most balanced roster in the country with superior depth along the perimeter and in the frontcourt. EJ Liddell headlines the team (though someone might want to tell that to Duane Washington) as a big who exhibits both strength in the paint and touch from mid-range and long distance. But opponents won’t even get a breather when he’s on the bench; the behemoth Zed Key will make his case for best sixth man in the conference during his sophomore season. 6. Villanova Projected departures: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (draft), Cole Swider (transfer) Projected additions: Jordan Longino, Trey Patterson, Nnanna Njoku
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Does the rest of the roster really matter as long as Jay Wright is coaching and Collin Gillespie is his point guard? (but also...it would behoove ‘Nova if Justin Moore could grow into that DiVencenzo/Mikal Bridges/Phil Booth-type of wing. Consistency seems to be the only thing preventing him from taking that next step). 7. Michigan Projected departures: Franz Wagner (draft), Isaiah Livers (draft/graduation), Chaundee Brown (draft/graduation), Mike Smith (graduation) Projected additions: Caleb Houstan, Moussa Diabate, Frankie Collins, Kobe Bufkin, Isaiah Barnes, DeVante' Jones (transfer)
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Michigan gains their strength from their front court, where a mixture of 5-star talent (Caleb Houstan, Moussa Diabate) will pair with wily vets (Brandon Johns, Hunter Dickinson). Dickinson will nab an assortment of preseason accolades, but don’t be surprised if Houstan emerges as the alpha by season’s end (his three-point stroke is WATER). Turning to the backcourt, Juwan Howard will seek to replicate the success of Mike Smith with another up-transfer: this time, DeVante’ Jones takes the reins. The former Coastal Carolina Chanticleer brings a well-rounded game and a physical style of play to Ann Arbor. 8. Duke Projected departures: Matthew Hurt (draft), DJ Steward (draft), Jordan Goldwire (transfer), Jaemyn Brakefield (transfer), Henry Coleman (transfer) Projected additions: AJ Griffin, Paolo Banchero, Trevor Keels, Jaylen Blakes, Theo John (transfer)
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Not gonna lie, I would love to use recency-bias as the grounds to boot Duke out of my top 10. But aside from last season, Coach K has a proven track record with teams toting this level of talent. Paolo Banchero exhibits perimeter skill that far surpasses most bigs in the country, and he will pair with sophomore Mark Williams to form a terrifying frontcourt. But in order to reach their lofty ceiling, sophomore guard Jeremy Roach must progress in ball security, poise, and defense. 9. Baylor Projected departures: Davion Mitchell (draft), Jared Butler (draft), MaCio Teague (draft), Mark Vital (graduation) Projected additions: Langston Love, Kendall Brown, Jeremy Sochan
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Ranking Baylor outside the top 5 feels disrespectful, but the reigning champs face the mountainous challenge of replacing the three primary guards from their title-winning squad. Ultimately, they should be fine—Adam Flagler projects as a quality starter, and Langston Love comes to Waco with a Montverde pedigree. But oddly enough, the biggest name—Arizona transfer James Akinjo—comes with the most uncertainty. His efficiency (or lack thereof) stands as a stark contrast to Davion Mitchell’s, and although he puts up numbers, he lacks the explosive athleticism of the prototype guard for Scott Drew’s system. Nonetheless, the enormous upgrade from Sean Miller to Drew should do him wonders. 10. Kansas Projected departures: Marcus Garrett (draft/graduation), Ochai Agbaji (projecting to stay in draft), Bryce Thompson (transfer), Tyon Grant-Foster (transfer) Projected additions: Remy Martin (transfer), Joe Yesufu (transfer), Zach Clemence, KJ Adams, Cam Martin, Bobby Pettiford
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Bill Self tried one season without a dominant lead guard, looked at his sub-50 offense, and said "for that reason, I'm out." So now, the head coach sojourned into the portal and came back with two options: Remy Martin (formerly of Arizona State) and Joe Yesufu (formerly of Drake). Martin posted back-to-back seasons of 19+ points per game, and Yesufu averaged 23.6 points over his last eight contests, but defensive issues probably prevent them from sharing the court much. Additionally, Martin may bear more responsibility for Arizona State's mediocrity than most folks realize, so let's temper some of the top-5 expectations. However, an imposing frontcourt will alleviate some of the backcourt's burden. 11. Arkansas Projected departures: Moses Moody (draft), Jalen Tate (graduation), Justin Smith (graduation), Desi Sills (transfer) Projected additions: Chris Lykes (transfer), Au'Diese Toney (transfer), Stanley Umude (transfer), Chance Moore
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No one recruits the portal better than the Muss Bus, and you gotta think he’s evilly smirking while he watches other coaches navigate through the chaos. So far, he’s landed two big names in Chris Lykes (Miami) and Au’Diese Toney (Pitt). For the average coach, mild skepticism should cloud these additions, since both put up numbers on bad, BAD teams. But Musselman has revealed himself as a sage when it comes to discovering players that fit his system. Plus, Devo Davis and JD Notae will both build off of solid first years in Fayetteville. 12. UCLA Projected departures: Johnny Juzang (projecting to stay in draft), Chris Smith (draft), Jalen Hill (retirement) Projected additions: Peyton Watson, Will McLendon, Myles Johnson (transfer)
In 100 Words or Less: Freshman Peyton Watson fits the billing of “big guard who can handle, shoot, and defend” that Mick Cronin has prioritized during his tenure at UCLA. The 6’8” wing uses his powerful first step to shake past defenders and optimizes his length to finish through contact. I won’t put Johnny Juzang-type expectations on him, but in time, he could blossom into a go-to scorer. While Watson brings the fanfare, Jaime Jaquez brings the fight. The junior forward embodies the junkyard dawg mindset that defined Cronin teams of old; but unlike Cronin teams of old, he also scores with ease and efficiency.
13. Houston Projected departures: Quentin Grimes (draft), DeJon Jarreau (draft/graduation), Justin Gorham (graduation), Brison Gresham (graduation) Projected additions: Kyler Edwards (transfer), Josh Carlton (transfer), J'Avier Francis, Ramon Walker
In 100 Words or Less: Kelvin Sampson continues to churn out talented two-way guards, as Tramon Mark and Kyler Edwards appear next in line for featured roles. Mark, entering his second year in the program, plays an awful lot like DeJon Jarreau, while ex-Red Raider Edwards possesses Quentin Grimes-Lite potential as a scorer. Also, having a full season of Fabian White will prove invaluable for the Coogs; he’s a bruiser, like the typical Sampson big, but he demonstrates more scoring versatility than the other post players on the roster.
14. Virginia Tech Projected departures: Jalen Cone (transfer), Wabissa Bede (graduation) Projected additions: Storm Murphy (transfer), Lynn Kidd (transfer)
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Mike Young runs it back with last season’s tournament team, but with one sizable change—his ol’ Wofford point guard Storm Murphy is set to join him. I first learned about Murphy back in December 2017 when he started for a Terrier squad that beat an eventual 2-seed North Carolina team. I second learned about Murphy in December 2019 when he hit 5 threes in a win over a…uhhh…very bad North Carolina team. Fresh off of First Team All-SoCon honors, Murphy will captain the Hokies alongside a nasty front line that consists of Justyn Mutts and Keve Aluma. 15. Tennessee Projected departures: Jaden Springer (draft), Keon Johnson (draft), Yves Pons (draft/graduation), EJ Anosike (graduation), Cory Walker (transfer) Projected additions: Kennedy Chandler, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, Jonas Aidoo, Jahmai Mashack, Justin Powell (transfer)
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Far too often last season, the Vols’ offense stagnated due to a lack of offensive playmaking. Determined to address that need, Rick Barnes acquired five-star point guard Kennedy Chandler, building off of Tennessee's recruiting momentum from 2020. While his diminutive stature (listed at 6’1”, 165) won’t intimidate anybody, his court vision will. Chandler showcases special passing ability and plays with a steadiness that surpasses his youth. Sharp-shooting Auburn transfer Justin Powell will pair with Chandler in the backcourt, thus relegating Santiago Vescovi to a spark-plug off the bench (which he’s better suited for). Finally, there's a TON of upside in front court with Brandon Huntley-Hatfield and Jonas Aidoo, should Barnes tire of super-senior John Fulkerson. 16. Florida State Projected departures: Scottie Barnes (draft), RaiQuan Gray (draft), Balša Koprivica (draft), MJ Walker (draft/graduation), RayQuan Evans (graduation), Nathanael Jack (transfer) Projected additions: Matthew Cleveland, Jalen Warley, John Butler, Naheem McLeod (JuCo), Caleb Mills (transfer), Cam'Ron Fletcher (transfer)
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Early departures hit the ‘Noles hard, as they unexpectedly lost both RaiQuan Gray and Balša Koprivica—either one could’ve been a dark horse All-American candidate. But still, even though those decisions dashed their top-5 hopes, Coach Ham reloaded with another crop of freakishly tall and athletic dudes; thus, Florida State will hover in the upper tier of the ACC once more. Watch out for Tanor Ngom—my early pick for the random 7-footer whom Hamilton forms into an impact player (it happens every year). 17. Texas Projected departures: Kai Jones (draft), Greg Brown (draft), Matt Coleman (draft/graduation), Jericho Sims (graduation), Royce Hamm (transfer) Projected additions: Jaylon Tyson, Devin Askew (transfer), Timmy Allen (transfer), Christian Bishop (transfer), Dylan Disu (transfer)
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New head honcho Chris Beard wasted no time in landing splashy transfers for the Longhorns, but the most crucial one may be flying under the radar: ex-Creighton Bluejay Christian Bishop. Bishop fits perfectly into Beard’s defensive philosophy—he’s a multi-positional defender who wreaks havoc guarding PnR, whether he’s hedging, trapping, or switching. Plus, Bishop is an unleashed jaguar running the floor in transition. 18. Auburn Projected departures: Sharife Cooper (draft), JT Thor (projecting to stay in draft), Jamal Johnson (transfer), Justin Powell (transfer) Projected additions: Jabari Smith, Walker Kessler (transfer), Wendell Green (transfer), Zep Jasper (transfer), Desi Sills (transfer)
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In recent years, Bruce Pearl has brought Auburn basketball to new heights with a guard-heavy system that strictly abides by the popular “pace-and-space” mantra. He rarely plays guys over 6’8”, and he mainly assigns those nominal bigs to ancillary roles. That’s what makes this season’s team so fascinating—for the first time in his career, Pearl rolls out two juggernauts in the frontcourt: top-5 freshman Jabari Smith and North Carolina transfer Walker Kessler. Both have aspirations to grow their perimeter games, but their fit at Auburn will be an interesting storyline to monitor. 19. North Carolina Projected departures: Day'Ron Sharpe (draft), Walker Kessler (transfer), Garrison Brooks (transfer) Projected additions: D'Marco Dunn, Dontrez Styles, Justin McKoy (transfer), Brady Manek (transfer)
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The Hubert Davis era begins with some uncertainty, as the longtime Roy Williams assistant assumes his first ever head coaching job. But one thing that is for sure—the roster does not lack talent. The Heels retain four out of the six players from last year’s second-ranked recruiting class. Early reports indicate that Davis plans to modernize the offense, implementing more NBA concepts and giving more freedom to stud big man Armando Bacot to play away from the basket. Also, buy stock now in the sophomore backcourt of Caleb Love and RJ Davis. 20. Indiana Projected departures: Al Durham (transfer), Armaan Franklin (transfer), Joey Brunk (transfer) Projected additions: Logan Duncomb, Tamar Bates, Xavier Johnson (transfer), Parker Stewart (transfer), Miller Kopp (transfer)
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Soon after landing the Indiana job, Mike Woodson started courting esteemed players to Bloomington—Xavier Johnson, a stat-sheet stuffer on much-maligned Pitt teams, and Tamar Bates, a highly-underrated frosh with a buttery lefty jump shot, will boost IU’s putrid perimeter scoring. But Woodson’s offseason coup de grâce was convincing All-American big man Trayce Jackson-Davis to return for his junior season. 21. Virginia Projected departures: Sam Hauser (draft/graduation), Jay Huff (draft/graduation), Tomas Woldentensae (graduation), Justin McKoy (transfer), Jabri Abdur-Rahim (transfer), Casey Morsell (transfer) Projected additions: Taine Murray, Armaan Franklin (transfer), Jayden Gardner (transfer)
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Let’s start with the obvious: Virginia’s defense will again give them one of the highest floors in the country. Now, the not-so-obvious: Virginia’s offense possesses some serious potency. Trey Murphy proved himself as an all-conference caliber player last season after transferring from Rice; former top-50 recruit Reece Beekman is in line for a breakout second year; and lastly, IU transplant Armaan Franklin will provide more consistent shooting than the Hoos could ever get out of Tomas Woldetensae (and Casey Morsell…but that fits more into the “obvious” section). 22. Memphis Projected departures: Boogie Ellis (transfer), Damion Baugh (transfer), DJ Jeffries (transfer), Moussa Cisse (transfer) Projected additions: Josh Minott, Sam Ayomide, Jonathan Lawson, Earl Timberlake (transfer), Chandler Lawson (transfer),
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Per Bart Torvik’s T-Rank metric, Memphis performed like a top-10 team from February through the end of the season. Landers Nolley will again star as the offense’s focal piece, and DeMatha product/Miami transfer Earl Timberlake will add even more defensive prowess to a squad that’s shown to be ferocious on that end of the court. 23. Maryland Projected departures: Darryl Morsell (draft/transfer??), Jairus Hamilton (transfer), Chol Marial (transfer), Galin Smith (graduation) Projected additions: Julian Reese, Ike Cornish, Fatts Russell (transfer), Qudus Wahab (transfer), Ian Martinez (transfer)
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Per Bart Torvik, Maryland returns 62% of their minutes from last year’s tournament team. In addition to the incumbents, the Terps also added coveted Georgetown center Qudus Wahab and sort of/kind of/slightly coveted Rhode Island gunner Fatts Russell. They should be a mainstay in the Top 25, but they'll still play ugly; I highly recommend not watching them unless you have to. 24. Michigan State Projected departures: Aaron Henry (draft), Josh Langford (graduation), Rocket Watts (transfer), Foster Loyer (transfer) Projected additions: Max Christie, Jaden Akins, Tyson Walker (transfer)
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In a stretch from January through mid-February, Michigan State scored less than 1 point per possession in 7 of 8 games. An Aaron Henry resurgence saved their season, but with his exit, it’s no wonder Tom Izzo hit the portal to find some scoring assistance. Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker is what Spartans fans hoped Rocket Watts would be—equally undersized but significantly more dynamic with the ball in his hands. Between Walker and incoming freshman Max Christie, Sparty won’t be lacking in shot-creators. 25. Oklahoma State Projected departures: Cade Cunningham (draft), Projected additions: Bryce Thompson (transfer), Woody Newton (transfer)
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Despite losing Cade Cunningham, Mike Boynton and the ‘Pokes return the majority of a roster that ranked 17th in KenPom’s adjDE a season ago. His defensive formula relies upon lengthy dudes who deny passes, swat shots, and create turnovers—rest assured, Avery Anderson, Kalib Boone, and Bryce Williams (projecting a return for a super senior year) will continue to bedevil Big 12 foes. Lastly, former McDonald's All-American Bryce Thompson heads south from Kansas, ready to blossom into a star. Next in line: Louisville, UConn, Oregon, LSU, Arizona Sneaky teams who could crack the top 40: Washington State, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, Nevada, Colorado State
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AuthorRiley Davis Archives
June 2021
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