You can find part one of this post here. TLDR? No teams are that good. Therefore, a bunch of different guys can win National Player of the Year. On to the favorites! (In the order of least likely to most likely to win the award).
The Favorites Vernon Carey - F/C, Duke, Fr. Why he will win it: Like Marvin Bagley and Zion Williamson before him, Carey has a spring-loaded second bounce that gives him a Jason Voorhies-like quality when it comes to guarding him. Even when defenders forces him into a miss, thinking they have him beat, he just won't die. He ranks ninth in the ACC in offensive rebounds, and anecdotally speaking, he usually turns those boards into points. Much of Duke's offense revolves around feeding Carey in the paint, where he uses his size and positioning to free himself for catch-and-dunks. He powerfully finishes through contact, leading the ACC in free throw attempts. While the freshman thrives down low, his acumen is not limited to that of an old school center--he can run the floor, and he even has a decent enough handle to take a rebound or a steal coast to coast. With his robust scoring and rebounding averages and his blue blood pedigree, expect Carey to stick around in the running for the award as long as Duke stays in the top 10. Why he won't win it: Sophomore point guard Tre Jones is the face of this year's Duke team, and his play warrants an argument for the title of Duke's best player, so they could end up siphoning votes from each other. Also, during Duke's two-game losing streak, Clemson and Louisville both exposed Carey's defense in spread pick-and-roll. If that trend continues, his stock will tumble.
Payton Pritchard - G, Oregon, Sr.
Why he will win it: Pritchard pilots KenPom's sixth-ranked offense with his uber-efficiency. He's averaging almost 20 points per game on near 50-40-80 percentages (from the field, from three, from free-throw), all while leading the Pac-12 in minutes played and ranking ninth in usage rate. The lead guard exudes confidence and control when he plays--he expertly treads the line between involving his teammates and knowing when to take over a game. In addition, Pritchard has already delivered two season-defining clutch moments on the road--an overtime go-ahead basket at Michigan and an overtime game winner this past weekend at Washington.
The Ducks dropped a head-scratcher at Washington State early last week, but I still think they have the pieces to make a deep run in March, especially as their defense continues to improve. As a starter on the 2017 Final Four team and the engineer of their unanticipated surge to the Sweet 16 a season ago, Pritchard knows how to win in the postseason. Why he won't win it: Many of their games are televised on the ever-elusive Pac-12 Network, and they lost to Washington State. Need I say more?
Jared Butler - G, Baylor, So.
Why he will win it: Last week, Stadium's Jeff Goodman sparked a Twitter debate with CBS Sports's Matt Norlander and NBC Sports's Rob Dauster on the criteria for ranking teams. In a later article, Dauster outlined the logic behind his rankings as such: "the best team in the country is the team that would be favored on a neutral court against every other team in the country." I more or less agree with that principle, although I factor in some speculation on who I think will be best going forward when I fill out my ballot. Nonetheless, I do think Baylor is the best team in the nation. I've ranked them 8th or higher every week since December 9th; and their demolition of Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse lifted them from #5 to #1. That contest flashed their amalgamation of meticulousness and physicality on defense and their balance of power (in the colossi Mark Vital and Freddie Gillespie) and craft (in guards MaCio Teague, Davion Mitchell, and Butler) on offense. The best player on the best team always contends for the award; thus, if Baylor keeps this up, expect Butler's name to be in the conversation until the season's end. He already turned in a signature performance against the Jayhawks, scoring 22 points, dishing out 3 assists, and grabbing 4 boards. Kansas' 2-point defense ranks 24th in the nation, per Bar Torvik, but it didn't matter who they had guarding the interior--Butler schooled their big men with his finishing ability at the rim. Kansas tried to quell him with Marcus Garrett, their best perimeter defender. It didn't work. That's Butler's game: he's an attacking guard who can knock down threes, and defensively, he has the length to frustrate his opponent. In recent years, Baylor has pulled off prime wins only to regress to a fringe top 25 team. But they have both the roster chemistry and the coaching to sustain their momentum this year. Why he won't win it: As good as Baylor is, they rarely top 70 points in a game. Therefore, they lack appeal to the casual fan. Looking at the last three National Players of the Year (Zion Williamson, Jalen Brunson, Frank Mason III), they either suited up for a blue-blood with name recognition or they played in an electrifying offense (or both). Not checking those boxes doesn't disqualify Butler, but it foes inhibit his chances. Devon Dotson - G, Kansas, So.
Why he will win it: Jared Butler may be on the better team, but I think Dotson is the better player. The Charlotte native has lived up to every expectation of a sophomore leap, improving his statistics across the board. In a win at Texas this weekend, he displayed all of the attributes that distinguish him from your average floor general.
Dotson accelerates and decelerates with unmatched burst, nimbleness, and dexterity. He's listed at a generous 6'2", but he uses those skills to shake defenders and score over bigger players in the lane. For example, here, he speeds into the paint before abruptly stopping to hit a little runner over his man. And his speed makes him nearly uncontainable on the fast break, where he can take the rock to the rack or reward the open man. Lastly, critics may point to his subpar three-point shooting to undermine his campaign (31% on the year), and that's admittedly fair--but I mean, he did hit a long range dagger off the dribble that entombed the Longhorns. I think it's reasonable to expect continued growth in that area. But what I think is most impressive about Dotson's sophomore campaign is that he is playing at such a high level with no other consistent shot creators on his team. In recent years, Bill Self has succeeded in recruiting, developing, and coaching playmaking guards; this method ensures that he can play multiple guys who can both generate their own offense and facilitate for others. Think of the teams that trotted out combinations of Frank Mason, Wayne Selden, Devonte Graham, and Malik Newman. No other player like that can be found on Kansas' roster--Dotson's supporting cast, talented as they may be, mostly rely upon him to get them the ball. With him drawing so much attention from opposing defenses, his 18 points per game average becomes even more eye-popping. Why he won't win it: Honestly, we're at the point in the list where I think all the remaining guys deserve to win the award.
Cassius Winston - G, Michigan State, Sr.
Why he will win it: Winston, the preseason favorite, captains the best team in the Big Ten (which is undeniably the best conference in America), and Sparty looks the part of a national title contender. The senior has performed at his peak throughout this month; during a three-game stretch of blowout victories over Illinois, Michigan, and Minnesota, he averaged 26.6 points and 7 assists per game. Specifically, the walloping of the Wolverines highlighted everything that makes Winston so fun: he buried pull-up jumpers, led Michigan State's blitzing transition attack, and he dished out dime after dime to his teammates. But for all of his accomplishments on the court, his perseverance off the court makes this season transcendent. On November 9th, Winston's brother Zachary took his own life. I struggle to put into words what I feel for Cassius--I can only imagine the despair, the hurt, and the confusion that must've infiltrated his mind. Losing a family member and a best friend is tough at any age; and for a 22 year old, especially one with a spotlight as big as his, to continue to play is beyond admirable. His Instagram tribute to Zachary was raw, authentic, heart-wrenching, and beautiful. Why he won't win it: Again, no qualms here if he wins it.
Obi Toppin - F, Dayton, So.
Why he will win it: Dayton plays one of the most aesthetically pleasing brands of basketball I've ever seen. They play patiently yet aggressively, fundamentally yet flashy, and diligently yet effortlessly. Their offense operates like a rushing, roaring river--powerful and all-consuming, yet bridled by its tributary walls that keep it from uncontrollable flooding. And Toppin is the riverhead, from which the whole team flows. Obi can post up, he can hit threes, and he can put the ball on the deck and attack close-outs. As a superb athlete, a guard just has to get the ball somewhat within his radius out of pick-and-rolls and dribble hand-offs, and he's skying for a dunk. He's the main reason why Dayton ranks second in both KenPom and Bart Torvik's adjusted offensive efficiency metric. Dayton shares the ball extraordinarily well; they always make the extra pass, and their transition offense is Carolina-esque (the good Carolina teams, if that wasn't clear). Both Toppin's skillset and his IQ shine in the fast break. If all that wasn't enough for you to buy into his case for the National Player of the Year honors, he even has that viral step-back three against Kansas in Maui. Why he won't win it: He deserves it the most. Only the mid-major optics can stop him.
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All season long, the talking heads of college basketball have bemoaned the "lack of elite teams." This seems like an annual conversation point that usually fades by early January. But here we are, at the threshold of the thick of conference play, and it's still the locus of discussion.
So why does this come up every year? Well, I think the notion of "no elite teams" can be traced back to 2015, when the top-seven teams in KenPom's final rankings all finished with four losses or fewer.
2015 set an unrealistic standard. Compare it to just one year later, when no team in KenPom's final top 10 finished with less than five losses. Usually, I think people vastly exaggerate the "no elite teams" argument.
Usually. Because if you're a college hoops die-hard, you've probably thought something along the lines of "gee...it feels like there were like eight teams from last season that could beat any of this year's top 5 by double digits." And you might be right. KenPom has a metric called Adjusted Efficiency Margin (or AdjEM, for short) that estimates "the number of points a team would be expected to outscore the average Division-I team over 100 possessions without adjusting for location of the game." At the time of writing, Duke boasts the highest AdjEM with +30.30. That number would have ranked fourth last season. Moreover, the 2019 versions of Virginia, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Duke, Texas Tech, Michigan, North Carolina (I miss that team so much), and Kentucky all possessed higher AdjEMs than the current number two team, Kansas. So no elite teams. At least not yet. In conjunction with this chaos, the National Player of the Year race features some stars from unorthodox teams (and some not so orthodox). But the field still feels wide open. In this first post, I've outlined some under-the-radar candidates listed in order of least likely to most likely to win it. I'll post the favorites later this week. The Dark Horses Oscar Tshiebwe - F/C, West Virginia, Fr. Why he will win it: Bob Huggins' first McDonald's All-American in school history has quickly healed the trauma from last year's abysmal season. Although the head coach laid "Press Virginia" to rest, Tshiebwe and the Mountaineers haven't stuttered in stymying opposing offenses. They lead the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and rank second in three-point defense, per Bart Torvik. In addition, they are holding their opponents to a 39.4 effective field goal percentage--also good for tops in the country, per hoop-math.com. A captain of the fictitious All-Weight Room Team, Tshiebwe's terrifying paint presence diverts opponents from the lane, forcing them into low-percentage shots. Against Texas Tech this past weekend, the Red Raiders converted just 30% of their shot attempts, as Tshiebwe browbeat any challenger who stepped to the rim. In the above clip, Texas Tech's Kyler Edwards initially beat him; but Tshiebwe recovered in time to punish him with a demoralizing deflection-- one of four on the evening. But Tshiebwe is more than a big bodied shot-blocker--as one of the best athletes in the Big 12, he can guard in space, which has enabled Huggins to unleash a dominant switchable defense. If West Virginia earns a 1 or 2 seed and wins either the Big 12 regular season or the Big 12 tournament, the freshman will earn some buzz for the country's top award. Why he won't win it: Offense matters. Tshiebwe is averaging a respectable 12 points per game, but he is still a work in progress on that end. Also, this year's West Virginia is more of a "sum of its parts" kind of team as opposed to one that features an alpha-dog scorer like Jevon Carter. Luka Garza - C, Iowa, Jr.
Why he will win it: There isn't just one Luka from the Balkans putting up outrageous statistics. Luka Garza, the junior out of Bosnia and Herzegovina, burst onto the national scene with a 44-point performance in a loss to Michigan in early December. As the focal point of Iowa's booming offense, he scores primarily with his back to the basket with four guards spacing him. Garza excels at positioning himself down low; he swiftly evades his defender upon receiving an entrance pass, and finishes around the rim in a unique herky-jerky fashion. Averaging just over 4 offensive rebounds per game (and 10.8 total rebounds), Garza pours in points on put-backs as well. The Big Ten is basically the basketball equivalent to the WWE Royal Rumble, and the Hawkeyes' stud is leading the conference in a cornucopia of categories: field goals, two-point field goals, total points, points per game, offensive rebounds, PER, win shares, usage rate, and more. Why he won't win it: I think the Big Ten's depth will prevent the conference from fielding too many upper-echelon teams. Even if Iowa stays in the top 20 on all the major analytics sites, their schedule could easily give way to the double-digit loss eyesore. That would put a cap on their AP ranking, which I think matters to the people who vote on awards. Plus, Luka's game isn't exactly aesthetically pleasing. I'm not gonna knock the guy--he's clearly a beast; but he kind of lumbers up and down the court and he plays below the rim. It's pretty baffling how someone with his lack of explosiveness is so so so productive.
Ashton Hagans - G, Kentucky, So.
Why he will win it: Just about every season, Kentucky mirrors the Disney World's Tower of Terror: they ascend a little bit, then they drop, ascend again, drop a few more notches. It happens repeatedly as they work out the kinks with all their new pieces. But as the calendar inches closer and closer to March, Kentucky gradually rises to its peak, just like the Tower of Terror. And usually, they end up with the nice reward of 1 or a 2 seed in the Tourney (for the sake of the metaphor, let's ignore the Tower of Terror's mega-drop that concludes the ride). Kentucky again lives on this trajectory, and Hagans can take the Cats to their apex. He's as determined defensively as he was last season, giving headaches to opposing guards and creating one-man fast break opportunities. And offensively, he has improved his vision, his finishing, and his jump shot. The way he finds his teammates for easy looks pops out the most (7.3 assists per game). Why he won't win it: Nick Richards and Immanuel Quickley are both enjoying breakout seasons; their production eats into Hagans' points. Plus Tyrese Maxey also has the ability to score 30 or more on any given night. Lastly, there are too many good point guards for Hagans to really distance himself as the gold standard.
Malachi Flynn - G, San Diego State, R-Jr.
Why he will win it: Go ahead and take your "San Diego State ain't played nobody" arguments, douse them in gasoline, light a match, and don't look back. Because the Aztecs incinerated Creighton and Utah and notched 10 and 9-point wins over Iowa and Utah State, respectively. They currently sit at 4th in the NCAA's NET rankings, 6th in Bart Torvik's rankings, 9th in Haslametrics' rankings, and 12th in the grandaddy of them all, Ken Pomeroy's rankings. San Diego State has kept their record unblemished mainly with a defense that jumps passing lanes and runs their foes off the three-point line. Flynn plays a key role in this--his defensive rating is the 5th best in the Mountain West, and he's averaging 1.7 steals per contest--but it's really his offense that has established him as the most prominent "Flynn" since Walt Jr. won the hearts of folks everywhere with his warm smile. Flynn is an excellent three-point shooter off of motion, as he often gets looks out of dribble hand-offs; but he also knows how to pick his spots on the floor to bury pull-up jumpers. His offense is so well-rounded; with a tight handle and a frenetic burst, he shakes defenders to score at the rim. Why he won't win it: Even if San Diego State drops just *one* conference game, the naysayers will come out of hiding to disparage them (probably both on Twitter and in the national media). The improbability of an undefeated regular season plus west coast bias could tank Flynn's chances.
Myles Powell - G, Seton Hall, Sr.
Why he will win it: I'm not proficient in Seton Hall basketball history, but I would guess the Pirates entered this season with more expectations than any team in the past (their 1989 national runner-up team started the year unranked). And Powell has slogged through an ankle sprain and a severe concussion to get the Hall back on track after some early falters. His supporting cast thrives in a vicious, pressing defense (the unit as a whole ranks 10th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency), which gives him the liberty to focus on his most prolific skill: getting buckets. Everybody loves a good volume scorer--and to paraphrase Drake, "it could be winter or the summer, on the road, [Powell] does One Direction numbers, [he] don't miss." In four games since returning from concussion, Powell has paced Seton Hall with just over 22 points per game (all wins). Why he won't win it: His efficiency has dipped some from last season, both from beyond the arc and from the field overall. In addition, Powell hasn't gone off for 35+ in a marquee win yet. While he firebombed Michigan State with 37 points, Sparty came out victorious. The Hall has four big-time contests left on their regular-season schedule--two against Butler and two against Villanova. If Powell can transform any of those into a signature game, he moves from the dark horse list to a favorite. |
AuthorRiley Davis Archives
June 2021
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