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Click here for part one, here for part two, here for part three, here for part four, and here for part five. **all analytics/metrics come from Bart Torvik, unless otherwise noted** Teams 5 through 1: 5. Tennessee Deep Dive: How many more abysmal football seasons must Vol fans endure before they fully lean into their identity as a basketball school? Well, they actually may be doing that already. I’ve written about this before, but I lived in Knoxville for four years, and during my final year there (2019), the palpable buzz surrounding the basketball program reached an all-time high. As their football team sputtered, Grant Williams and the crew ascended. That was a lovable team of unheralded hoopers who embraced the grind and epitomized what it meant to play together. And that group laid the groundwork for an burgeoning giant in the SEC. And like the accomplished 2019 squad, the strength of this year’s team dwells in the frontcourt. Senior Yves Pons will forever be the captain of the All-Weight Room Team, and he has morphed from an athletic enigma into the best all-around defensive player in the nation. Sometimes, the term “multi-positional defender” gets thrown around recklessly, but Pons can legitimately guard "1" through "5." The hybrid forward seamlessly switches onto the perimeter, matching up with dynamic lead guards. See the clip below, where he bests a potential pro in Andrew Nembhard: But he also forces his opponents out of the paint; last season, his interior presence lifted the Vols to the fifteenth best 2-point defense in the country. Pons has grown into a consummate shot-blocker (he led the SEC in swats in ‘19-’20), and he will take on any challenger. Even if he risks getting dunked on, he’ll still elevate to contest a shot at the rim. Redshirt-senior forward John Fulkerson slots in alongside Pons, and he serves as the ideal cohort. A season ago, Fulky erupted out of nowhere, increasing his scoring output from 3.7 points per game in 2019 to 13.9 points per game in 2020. Though he boasts no elite physical tools, he scores effectively out of iso in both the mid and high post. Something about his herky-jerky style gives opposing bigs fits. Sacred Heart transfer EJ Anosike, a rebounding fiend, and 4-star freshman forward Corey Walker will supply key minutes off the bench. In this quartet, Barnes may have the deepest frontcourt of his coaching career. But it’s not like his guards and wings are sluggards. In sophomore Josiah-Jordan James and freshmen Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson, the Vols tote three former five-star prospects who shine on the perimeter. Although James experienced an up-and-down freshman season, he still flashed some of the tools that earned him such high acclaim in high school--such as his one-dribble pull-ups and his secondary playmaking (2.9 assists per game, 15th highest assist rate in the SEC in ‘19-‘20). James’s next step entails improving as a slasher and learning how to take advantage of his 6’6” frame (only took 19% of his field-goal attempts at the rim, per hoop-math.com). Springer, on the other hand, looks awesome when attacking the basket. He couples a big, compact frame with phenomenal body control to both finish through traffic and adjust shots on the fly. Moreover, Springer possesses the lateral speed to find success immediately on the defensive end. Despite the lowest high school ranking of the group, Johnson offers the most upside. The 6’5” guard can play just about any position on the perimeter. On-ball, he uses his high-level IQ and court vision to set up his teammates, and off-ball, he needs only one dribble to flaunt his alien-like athleticism on ferocious dunks. A Draft Twitter Darling, Johnson likely earns a starting job from day one and could work his way into becoming a high-lottery selection. He’s also the bounciest dude to wear #45 since post-baseball MJ. Of course, every roster needs a savvy lead guard to initiate the offense, and that’s precisely what sophomore Santiago Vescovi provides. Last season, Vescovi faced the unenviable task of starting a basketball game a week after departing from his home country of Uruguay. But rather than faltering from a lack of practice and preparation, he turned in a “Linsanity”-esque performance; in his first collegiate contest versus LSU, Vescovi hit 6 threes and dished 4 assists...the Vols lost, and he turned the rock over 9 times (again, note the Linsanity comp), but he showed he could be the guard of the present and of future. In particular, Vescovi displayed some promise as a shot creator; he should improve as a shooter off the dribble in year two, due to his smooth lefty jumper and his ability to shake defenders. Equipped with an incredible feel for the game, Vescovi’s passing will buoy whatever strides he makes as a scorer. He especially loves getting into the teeth of the defense and throwing no-look dimes. Sure, his flashy style results in some turnovers, but the guy makes art on the basketball court. The Vols gush with talent, packing more than enough heat needed to recapture the offensive firepower of the 2019 team (who finished 3rd in both KenPom and Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric). Few holes can be spotted on this roster, but they must demonstrate focus in taking care of the basketball and controlling the offensive glass--two traits common to Barnes’ most prolific teams. The athletes on the wing should be able to generate easy baskets in transition, and they can always get the ball into the paint in late-shot clock scenarios. Now, if just one out of Vescovi, Springer, or Johnson can materialize into a go-to scorer, Tennessee might just make their first Final Four in program history. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Santiago Vescovi (So.), G - Jaden Springer (Fr.), G/F - Keon Johnson (Fr.), F - Yves Pons (Sr.), F - John Fulkerson (RSr.) Projected bench: G - Josiah-Jordan James (So.), G - Victor Bailey (Jr.), F - EJ Anosike (Sr.), F - Corey Walker (Fr.), C - Uros Plavsic (RSo.) Strengths: frontcourt, interior defense, depth, shooting Weaknesses: turnovers Best player: Pons Breakout player: Johnson 4. Kansas Deep Dive: Quick summary of Kansas’ roster: Wings, wings, and more wings decorate this top-5 team. As noted in my West Virginia deep dive, Bill Self spurned two-big lineups for small ball back in 2016, and he hasn’t looked back since. This year’s Kansas squad fully personifies the philosophical shift, as the roster abounds with perimeter-oriented guards and forwards. Three of those guys, Ochai Agbaji, Tyon Grant-Foster, and Christian Braun, will consume the bulk of the available minutes at the “3” and the “4.” The junior Agabji checks in as the lone returning starter of this bunch. And though his stats don’t immediately grip your attention, his play indicates that he’s an ideal teammate. Agbaji doesn’t need the ball to impact the offense, exerts maximum effort on both ends of the floor, and is a springy two-footed leaper (he’s an absolute savant going backdoor for alley-oops). Now a seasoned vet, he will also provide valuable mentorship to the newcomers. Of the rookie Jayhawks, Grant-Foster elicits Pavlovian-type responses from Kansas fans any time his name comes up. The top JuCo prospect amazes viewers with his blend of size and shot-creation; Grant-Foster rarely uses more than two dribbles to get to his spots on the floor, where he then rises above defenders to drain shots off the bounce. With his 6’7” frame and 7-foot wingspan, he also has the length to bother shots and turn deflections into turnovers. But Grant-Foster will have to outwork the up-and-coming Braun if he wants to secure a starting job for the whole season. Despite falling outside the top-100 of the class of 2019, Braun carved out a role for the loaded Jayhawks last season. His wet trey ball distinguishes him from the other wings, and he flaunts better rebounding and athleticism than you’d expect from a guy with a frat swoop. Finally, two former top-50 recruits (Tristan Enaruna and Jalen Wilson) solidify this unit as the deepest in the country. The sophomore Enaruna only played 10 minutes a game last year, and a broken ankle squelched the redshirt-freshman Wilson’s season before it even began; but both flashed potential as slashers and shooters at the high school level. However, even with all these versatile wings, the Jayhawks still face a sizable challenge: replacing two All-Americans in Udoka Azubuike and Devon Dotson. Self has a little more clarity on Azubuike’s successor: junior David McCormack has fared admirably as a complementary piece throughout his career, and he looks primed for a breakout in a featured role. Though he’s not quite the Leviathan that Big Dok was, he is still a chiseled giant. And like his forerunner, he conquers his opponents by establishing deep post position, then dunking just about everything. McCormack also scores a chunk of his baskets off of put-backs--on his second bounce, he launches off the court so quickly. Don’t be surprised if you see him post 15 and 10 averages this season. But replicating Dotson’s two-way production...now that’s a bit more daunting. The prevailing notion out of Lawrence assumes that junior Marcus Garrett will step into the lead guard slot. A 6’5” jack-of-all-trades, Garrett has verified himself as the nation’s best perimeter defender. His active hands swing momentum at a moment’s notice; a lazy pass or a loose handle quickly becomes his prey, oftentimes resulting in a run-out for Kansas. On the other side of the ball, Garrett competently facilitates the offense, and he blends his passing acumen with superb court awareness. Observe the clip below, where Baylor ices him on what (I guess) they thought would be a ball-screen: He knows exactly where the open man will be, and he sends a dime right into Isaiah Moss’s shooting motion. Now, keep in mind, I’m higher on Kansas than consensus, but I must acknowledge a slight hangup: questions linger regarding Garrett’s shot. While he finds little trouble driving to the hoop off the dribble, he has yet to prove that he can sink pull-up jumpers. Last season, Garret made just four unassisted three-pointers. Compare that to 16 for Dotson in 2020, 54 for Devonte’ Graham in 2018, and 36 for Frank Mason in 2017 (info per hoop-math.com). While Garrett undoubtedly has received neither the opportunity nor the green light afforded to the other three, his career averages of 28% from beyond the arc and 57% from the foul line make me skeptical that he can reach those heights. However, here’s the counterpoint: Self doesn’t necessarily need Garrett to function as a dynamic scorer with the talent he has on the rest of the team (take 2014, for example, where the Jayhawks obtained a 2-seed with the nondescript Naadir Tharpe running the point while Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid starred). Plus, the next heat-seeking Kansas guard may already be on the roster. Bryce Thompson, a McDonald’s All-American out of Tulsa, profiles as a nutty shotmaker. He taunts defenders with his jab step and nasty crossover, demonstrating proficiency at creating separation. Though Thompson’s slight frame could hinder him against Big 12 competition, he still has the chops to score in bunches during his first year. Finally, Kansas will frighten their foes with a menacing defense. They might not rank second in the nation again, but they will excel at deterring their challengers from the paint. McCormack’s ability to play drop coverage against pick-and-roll eradicates looks at the basket, while the combination of Garrett, Agbaji, and Grant-Foster on the perimeter is like Kyler Murray in fantasy: matchup-proof. The Big 12 will give way to vicious battles among its top tier, but Kansas has a fantastic chance to repeat as conference champions. And the goal won’t end there--the disappointment of last season’s cancellation will fuel them on their quest to cut them nets (and cash them checks--sorry, had to). TLDR: Projected starters: G - Marcus Garrett (Sr.), G - Bryce Thompson (Fr.), G/F - Ochai Agbaji (Jr.), F - Tyon Grant-Foster (Jr.), C - David McCormack (Jr.) Projected bench: G/F - Christian Braun (So.), G - DaJuan Harris (So.), F - Tristan Enaruna (So.), F - Jalen Wilson (RFr.), F - Mitch Lightfoot (RSr.) Strengths: depth at the wing, well-rounded defense, rebounding, versatility on offense Weaknesses: three-point shooting is a question mark, Garrett’s adjustment to full-time point guard duties Best player: Garrett Breakout player: McCormack 3. Baylor Deep Dive: **all analytics/metrics come from Bart Torvik, unless otherwise noted** I think I owe the Baylor Bears an apology. Last preseason, I called them a “whole wheat bread” type of team--i.e. solid but super boring and bland. Most of my grievances stemmed from their ugly and inefficient guard play over the years. I had hope in Jared Butler, believing he alone could cleanse the Baylor of their backcourt sins. But Scott Drew upped the ante and unleashed two more vigorous guards to shine alongside him. Butler and his two running mates, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell, propelled the Bears to a number 1 ranking, which they held for five weeks, and to their highest finish on KenPom (3rd) and Bart Torvik (2nd) in Drew’s career. With all three returning, and a postseason definitely (?) happening, a transcendent season hovers on the horizon. Butler, the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year, operates as the centerpiece of Baylor’s offense. Since he first stepped foot on campus, he has scored effortlessly from all over the court--but he elevated his shotmaking to new heights last season. Butler torches defenders with twitchy change-of-direction speed, and he shows off deft footwork on sidestep and stepback jumpers. Whether he storms to the basket or launches from distance, he gives Drew a trustworthy iso scorer late in the game. Butler also showed growth as a facilitator last season, increasing his assist rate while lowering his turnover rate. But the pressure doesn’t fall solely upon him for ballhandling duties--that’s where Mitchell steps in. Last season, the redshirt-junior split time with Butler as the primary initiator and led the Bears in assists (114, 3.8 per game). Teague, a redshirt-senior completes the trio, and he flourishes as the no. 2 next to Butler. After struggling with his shot through the first half of conference play (23% from three through the first seven games), he caught fire when the calendar turned to February (42% through the last nine games). Teague has some unorthodox shot mechanics, but he can bury three-pointers in a variety of ways--his shooting out of dribble hand-offs, off of screens, and on spot-ups serves as an essential component of the offense. In the frontcourt, Baylor has a guy whose game meshes perfectly with Butler, Mitchell, and Teague. Senior Mark Vital runs the floor with fury, punctuating transition possessions with booming dunks. In the halfcourt, he makes intelligent passes out of the post, and his relentlessness on the boards empowered Baylor to be the 8th best offensive rebounding team in the country. But the Bears’ real power emanates from their defense, where Mitchell and Vital, in particular, eclipse their competition. The former emerged as a top-flight guard-stopper a year ago; Mitchell uses his quick, fluid hips to cut off driving lanes when guarding the ballhandler, and he displays incredible timing and instincts in help-side defense. The brawny Vital can both bang in the post and stick with guards away from the basket. His switchability transformed the Baylor defense into an impenetrable fortress. Drew garnered praise for switching from a zone scheme to a “no-middle” strategy last season. The linked video from Jordan Sperber details an exhaustive analysis, but in case you don’t watch it, here’s the summary: Baylor seeks to force the ball towards the sideline or the baseline to take away the lane (“the middle”) and limit their opponents’ shots at the basket. This concept succeeds because of the Bears’ speedy, rangy, and determined athletes; when the opposing team moves the ball, they swiftly rotate to the open man, whether that be a big rolling to the hoop or a shooter open in the corner. The head coach’s defensive about-face paid dividends--Baylor pressured teams into shooting long-2s at the 4th highest rate in the country while holding teams to the 11th lowest rate of close-2s. And for good measure, they also ranked 22nd nationally in defensive turnover rate. The Bears have positioned themselves well to replicate these numbers--but one obstacle remains: someone on the roster must fill the void left by Freddie Gillespie. The former D-3 hooper exploded in his second season in Waco, evolving into an elite rim protector. With an imposing 7’5” wingspan, he turned points in the paint into a rare commodity. But he also had decent enough foot speed to contest shots on the perimeter. Drew will hope that one out of freshman Dain Dainja, redshirt-sophomore Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua, and junior Flo Thamba can hold down the starting “5” spot. This will be the biggest storyline of Baylor’s season as all three--despite having incredible names--are all unproven. Dainja, a top-100 recruit, fits a more offensively-minded profile. Tchamwa-Tchatchoua has vertical pop that strikes you with awe, but he was mostly inefficient as a freshman at UNLV. That leaves Thamba, a physical specimen who has been marinating for two years, as the most likely candidate. Still, even amid these uncertainties, Drew has proved he can develop big men, and I trust that one from this group will become serviceable, at the very least. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Jared Butler (Jr.), G - Davion Mitchell (RJr.), G - MaCio Teague (RSr.), F - Mark Vital (RSr.), F/C - Flo Thamba (Jr.) Projected bench: F - Matthew Mayer (Fr.), G - Adam Flagler (RSo.), G - LJ Cryer (Fr.), F - Dain Dainja (Fr.), F/C - Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua (RSo.) Strengths: defense, forcing turnovers, guard play Weaknesses: unproven depth, no surefire NBA talent Best player: Butler Breakout player: Thamba 2. Villanova Deep Dive: If you’re reading this, chances are that you grieved the loss of the 2020 NCAA Tournament--the buzzer-beaters, the Cinderella stories, the Bill Raftery calls, the media beating at least one storyline to death, the “One Shining Moment” montage--I could go on and on and on. But there’s one occurrence that I bet you forgot. Had the Big Dance occurred this year, we would have certainly seen some commemoration of the fifth anniversary of this: Yep, that happened half a decade ago. Mark Gottfried beat Jay Wright in an NCAA Tournament game--I REPEAT, MARK GOTTFRIED BEAT JAY WRIGHT IN AN NCAA TOURNAMENT GAME. It’s crazy how much can change in such a short amount of time. Since March of 2015, Wright has won two titles and been included in numerous NBA coaching rumors; heck, even in “down” years, his teams still win a share of the Big East and send a coupla guys to the League. And this season projects to be anything but a down year. Wright retains a roster full of proven veterans and high-upside sophomores. Even in a stacked Big East, call Villanova the Karving Kings, because they’re a cut above the rest. It all starts with the offense. Wright tells his players to let ‘em fly, as they always rank top-30 in three-point rate. And for good reason--the Wildcats incinerate defenses with quality shooters at nearly every position. Senior Collin Gillespie will spearhead the attack, after blooming into a sensational lead guard last year. I doubted Gillespie last preseason, downplaying his ability to impact the game without a electric shot creator next to him. But he obliterated my now-freezing-cold take, sinking trey balls off the dribble, creating open looks for his teammates, and finishing top-20 in the Big East in both offensive rating and usage rate. He’ll build off of 2020 and push for an All-American team this year. Alongside Gillespie, Wright will unbridle the next great Villanova wing in sophomore Justin Moore. After enrolling at ‘Nova as a fringe top-50 recruit, Moore shattered expectations last year, earning Big East Freshman of the Week recognition on five separate occasions. He buries threes off of flare screens and dribble-hand-offs, but he can also take his man into the post. Moore has a good chance to follow in the footsteps of guys like Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo, and Mikal Bridges; but who will fill the other spots on the perimeter? Senior Jermaine Samuels has started for the better part of two seasons, and he provides flexibility, able to man the “3” or the “4” positions. His role will hinge on who plays more between Tulane transfer Caleb Daniels and junior Cole Swider. Daniels, a 6’4” guard, flourished as a high-usage player for the Green Wave two seasons ago. The only problem--Tulane was dreadful, winning just 4 games during his final year there. Nonetheless, Wright loves multi-faceted scorers who can play on or off-ball and can make smart passes; Daniels fits that billing. If the head coach opts for a bigger lineup, he can slide Swider in without sacrificing an iota of floor spacing. The 6’9” forward embodies the exact type of prospect that Wright succeeds with--four-star, multi-year guys with pure shooting strokes that can develop into All-Conference-level starters (and NBA draft picks in some cases). Swider doesn’t shy away from attacking close-outs, but his quick-trigger three-point jumper is the key to unlocking his potential. I know it came against Middle Tennessee State, but it’s easy to envision these types of highlights becoming more ordinary for him. Regardless of which lineup Wright trots out, he can lean on a stallion at the “5.” For all of Gillespie and Moore’s offensive prowess, sophomore Jeremiah Robinson-Earl's upside spurs Villanova to my number 2 ranking. Following a solid freshman season, the former five-star recruit will launch into stardom in year two. He already has range out to the three-point line, and he boasts advanced perimeter skills for someone his size. In the rebounding department, JRE hunts loose balls with a dogged intensity, and his surgical playmaking opens up the offense for his teammates. In 2020, Robinson-Earl posted the third-highest assist rate of any big man in the conference. I’m led to believe his selfless attitude rubbed off on his teammates, as their team assist rate ranked 58th nationally. Going off of that, get used to seeing this lil’ handoff action with JRE, because Villanova will run it a million times this season: So there ya have it. Perhaps the tears of the Villanova flute girl watered the seed that sprouted into an emerging Blue Blood. The Wildcats show hardly any flaws, and they have a coach who’s probably fed up with hearing about the coronation of Chris Beard and Tony Bennett for the last year and a half. Even though the sports world suffers from short-term memory loss, Wright is the one who has won two titles in three years. And now, opportunity knocks for him to secure his fourth in six. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Collin Gillespie (Sr.), G - Justin Moore (So.), F - Jermaine Samuels (Sr.), F - Cole Swider (Jr.), F - Jeremiah Robinson-Earl Projected bench: G - Caleb Daniels (RJr.), F - Brandon Slater (Jr.), F/C - Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree (Sr.), hopefully G - Bryan Antoine (So.) at some point. Strengths: offense, offense, offense--mainly spacing, shooting, IQ, and passing. So everything. Weaknesses: depth is a little shaky, but that’s about it Best player: Gillespie or Robinson-Earl Breakout player: Moore 1. Gonzaga Deep Dive: Well, we’ve reached the summit. For those who have read every deep dive, I sincerely thank you. The Zags are my number 1 team with a bullet, and I’m out of ideas for clever little intros, so let’s jump right into it: Mark Few has constructed an empire in Spokane that only gained mainstream acclaim when he made his first Final Four in 2017. Well, it’s past time to give him his respect, and his squad should be thinking National Championship or bust this season. Gonzaga’s roster overflows with talented players--but it’s not just their pedigree that induces such optimism from me. It’s also their fit in Few’s system; he has a player at every position who thrives at the different skills that his coaching blueprint prioritizes. For the first example, direct your attention to the post. Here are Gonzaga’s national rankings in 2-point field goal percentage over the last five years: 3rd, 1st, 5th, 7th, 16th, and 2nd. Pounding the ball inside fuels the Zags’ offense, and this year will be no different. Sophomore Drew Timme steps into the limelight, and he will seize the opportunity to expose opposing big men all over the country. The 6’10” Timme finished the season on a rampage, averaging 11 points and 5 boards off the bench during February and March. In Gonzaga’s final game of the season, the WCC championship versus Saint Mary’s, he paraded the finesse and the touch that make his post game so special. For proof, watch the smooth left-handed finish over the Gaels: In transition, he functions as an optimal rim-rummer, and he even has a little grab-and-go ability; perhaps Few lets him channel his inner Rui Hachimura and gives him some freedom to lead the break. The rest of the Zags will feed off of Timme’s energy--he’ll pop his jersey, flex after dunks, yell after blocking a shot, and engage in all the typical antics that attract haters to a player (I’m here for it though). Next to Timme, Few can turn to former top-50 recruit Anton Watson or the colossal redshirt-freshman Oumar Ballo. Watson missed the bulk of last season with a shoulder injury, but as a forward who’s more inclined to play on the perimeter, his game complements Timme’s nicely. He also demonstrated quality defensive instincts in the fifteen games that he played as a freshman. If the head coach elects to go with a supersized lineup, Ballo and his 7’6” wingspan will deliver the goods; this is likely a more situational pairing though. And there’s one more once-esteemed recruit bringing depth to the frontcourt. Sophomore Pavel Zakharov, out of Montverde by way of Russia, logged only 4.5 minutes per game last season, but the 7-footer exhibits masterful body control in driving to the hoop and running the floor. Plus he’s an international kid, so you know Few will succeed with him. Top-notch three-point shooting is another staple of Gonzaga’s offense, and they deploy one of the best shooters in the country. Senior Corey Kispert pulls with icy confidence from all over the court; he dominates as a movement shooter, needing only a sliver of time to square his shoulders after running off screens. The 6’7” forward has increased both his total made threes and his three-point percentage in every year that he’s been at Gonzaga (78 total, 43.8% from beyond the arc in ‘19-‘20). That total number could surpass 100 this season. Finally, Gonzaga boasts three stud guards that push the pace up to speeds that few teams can match. In three of the last four seasons, the Zags have ranked top-75 nationally in tempo, and that trend will continue this season. In redshirt-junior Joel Ayayi and freshman Jalen Suggs, Few possesses a starting backcourt of two hyper-athletic guards who already work well off of each other. (I know that highlight is from a team scrimmage, but come on, how can that not excite you?) The Frenchman Ayayi provides a little bit of everything--the above clip highlights his passing, but he also rebounds well for his position and harasses opposing ballhandlers with tight defense. Suggs comes to Gonzaga as the highest-ranked recruit in program history (11th in the 247Sports Recruiting Composite), and he drips with NBA potential. Once a high school quarterback, Suggs showcases exquisite vision, flashing live-dribble passes to the corner off of either hand. He plays the lead guard position with an unrivaled ferocity, pulling-up from distance and attacking off the bounce. The play below shows off his insane bounce and motor: Gonzaga has long put the “THEY AIN’T PLAYED NOBODY” notion to bed (just look at this year's non-conference schedule ...they want all the smoke), and they will reign supreme from the first tip. Though the Tournament always brings randomness and uncertainty, I would be very surprised if the Zags are not the last team standing. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Jalen Suggs (Fr.), G - Joel Ayayi (RJr.), F - Corey Kispert (Sr.), F - Anton Watson (So.), F - Drew Timme (So.) Projected bench: G - Andrew Nembhard (Jr.), G - Aaron Cook (RSr.), C - Oumar Ballo (RFr.), F/C - Pavel Zakharov (So.) Strengths: shooting, post play, guard play, depth, coaching, everything Weaknesses: None. This claim is not disputed, or whatever that meme is. Best player: Timme or Kispert Breakout player: Timme or Suggs
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ACC:
First Team G - David Johnson, So., Louisville G - Scottie Barnes, Fr., Florida State F - Sam Hauser, RSr., Virginia F - Jalen Johnson, Fr., Duke F - Garrison Brooks, Sr., North Carolina Second Team G - Caleb Love, Fr., North Carolina G - DJ Steward, Fr., Duke G - Mike Devoe, Jr., Georgia Tech F - Aamir Simms, Sr., Clemson F/C - Jay Huff, RSr., Virginia POTY: Brooks Big East: First Team G - Marcus Zegarowski, Jr., Creighton G - David Duke, Jr., Providence G - Collin Gillespie, Sr., Villanova F - James Bouknight, So., UConn F - Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, So., Villanova Second Team G - DJ Carton, So., Marquette G - Mitch Ballock, Sr., Creighton G - Justin Moore, So., Villanova G - Paul Scruggs, Sr., Xavier F - Sandro Mamukelashvili, Sr., Seton Hall POTY: Zegarowski Big Ten: First Team G - Ayo Dosunmu, Jr., Illinois F - Micah Potter, RSr., Wisconsin F - Trayce Jackson-Davis, So., Indiana C - Luka Garza, Sr., Iowa C - Kofi Cockburn, So., Illinois Second Team G - Joe Wieskamp, Sr., Iowa G/F - Franz Wagner, So., Michigan F - Joey Hauser, RJr., Michigan State F - Ron Harper Jr., Jr., Rutgers C - Trevion Williams, Jr. Purdue POTY: Dosunmu Big 12: First Team G - Jared Butler, Jr., Baylor G - Miles McBride, So., West Virginia G - Marcus Garrett, Sr., Kansas G - Cade Cunningham, Fr., Oklahoma State F - Oscar Tshiebwe, So., West Virginia Second Team G - Nimari Burnett, Fr., Texas Tech G - Andrew Jones, RJr., Texas F - Terrence Shannon, So., Texas Tech F - Mark Vital, Sr., Baylor F - David McCormack, Jr., Kansas POTY: Cunningham Pac 12: First Team G - Tyger Campbell, RSo. UCLA G - Remy Martin, Sr., Arizona State G - Will Richardson, Jr., Oregon G/F - Chris Smith, Sr., UCLA F - Oscar da Silva, Sr., Stanford Second Team: G - Quade Green, Jr., Washington G - Chris Duarte, Sr., Oregon F - Eric Williams, Jr., Oregon F - Evan Mobley, Fr., Southern Cal F - Ziaire Williams, Fr., Stanford POTY: Smith SEC: First Team G - John Petty, Sr., Alabama G - Keyontae Johnson, Jr., Florida G/F - BJ Boston, Fr., Kentucky G/F - Terrence Clarke, Fr., Kentucky F - Yves Pons, Sr., Tennessee Second Team: G - Santiago Vescovi, So., Tennessee G - Moses Moody, Fr., Arkansas F - Trendon Watford, So., LSU F - John Fulkerson, RSr., Tennessee F - Romello White, RSr., Ole Miss POTY: Clarke All-American: First Team G - Ayo Dosunmu, Jr., Illinois G - Jared Butler, Jr., Baylor G - Cade Cunningham, Fr., Oklahoma State F - Drew Timme, So., Gonzaga C - Luka Garza, Sr., Iowa Second Team: G - Marcus Zegarowski, Jr., Creighton G - James Bouknight, So., UConn F - Jalen Johnson, Fr., Duke F - Garrison Brooks, Sr., North Carolina F - Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, So., Villanova Third Team G/F - Terrence Clarke, Fr., Kentucky F - Corey Kispert, Sr., Gonzaga F - Yves Pons, Sr., Tennessee F - Trayce Jackson-Davis, So., Indiana C - Kofi Cockburn, So., Illinois POTY: Dosunmu Elite 8: Gonzaga over Duke Kansas over Florida State Tennessee over Houston Illinois over UCLA Final Four: Gonzaga over Illinois Kansas over Tennessee National Championship: Gonzaga over Kansas
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Click here for part one, here for part two, here for part three, and here for part four. Teams 10 through 6: 10. Houston Deep Dive: **all analytics/metrics come from Bart Torvik, unless otherwise noted** Have you ever noticed how often in life you have to do the things that you don’t want to do to do the things that you do want to do? Like going to grad school or climbing the corporate ladder to get your dream job. Or eating all your vegetables so you can have dessert. Or finishing your studying before you go have fun with your friends. I believe the Steve Miller Band has a lyric from their hit "Jet Airliner" that creates poetry out of this truth: “Ridin’ high, I got tears in my eyes / You know you got to go through hell before you get to heaven.” I hope all my old man readers (i.e. my dad) enjoyed that reference. But I think no squad represents this notion more than the Houston Cougars. As a team, they consistently pay attention to detail and take care of the dirty work on the court. For proof, check their top-30 finish in offensive rebounding rate and their top-20 finish in adjusted defensive efficiency in each of the last three seasons. Crashing the glass and hounding their opponents make up the bedrock of the program. Once those are taken care of, the fun begins on offense. Houston seems to have a never-ending supply of guards who can score from all over the court. Last year, it took some time for head coach Kelvin Sampson to figure out how to best utilize these pieces, as evidenced by some head-scratching losses; and yet, he still found a way to win 23 games and an AAC title in the process. I think the Coogs build upon their conference title by establishing themselves as a national presence this season. So what makes the Houston defense so special? Well, first, they can switch 1 through 5 on ball screens. Sampson has done an incredible job of building a team of athletes who all have the lateral quickness to guard on the perimeter and the frame to hold their own in the post. Because of their roster makeup, the Coogs can minimize their opponents’ ability to target mismatches. Second, they simultaneously excel at protecting the paint and taking away the three-point line. Sampson implements some gap-defense principles, as help defenders often swarm the ballhandler when he enters the lane. But the entire roster has the length, quickness, and alertness to rotate out to the three-point line if the ballhandler kicks out. Houston held their opponents to the 7th lowest three-point percentage in the country in '19-'20. Third, the Cougars possess continuity from last season (67% of minutes returning). In an interview withthe Marching to Madness podcast, the head coach stressed the importance of practice reps in understanding and executing his defense. Their defensive efficiency from November through December (112th nationally) compared to that from January through April (6th nationally) underlines just how vital it is for every player to acclimate to the scheme. Regarding the offensive rebounding, Sampson sends three guys at the basket to get the board, and they all outwork their challengers. Not sure that it’s much more complicated than that. Now, the more glamorous part: on offense, all of their rotation guards bring complementary skillsets to the table. In redshirt-senior DeJon Jarreau, Houston has a pass-first point guard who does everything well but shoot. He displays excellent vision in setting up his teammates, uses his length to clean the glass, and maintains unyielding energy on defense. Jarreau also once took a bite out of an opponent’s leg, so you know he’s willing to do whatever it takes to win (definitely a violation of today's COVID protocol though). Sophomore Marcus Sasser will get the nod alongside Jarreau in the nominal backcourt, and he is overflowing with breakout potential. A catch-and-shoot dynamo, Sasser hit an impressive 35% of his long-range shots as a freshman. It’s not out of the question for that percentage to rise to 38-40% this year. Also, he’s only 6’1”, but he’s a STRONG 200+ pounds, so his bulk allows him to match up with multiple positions on defense. There’s a good chance that he frustrates AAC foes a thousand more times with plays like this throughout his career: Junior Quentin Grimes completes the starting perimeter unit; in moments last season, the 6’5” guard showcased the scintillating upside that made him a McDonald’s All-American many moons ago. With a well-rounded game, he absorbs contact on the dribble-drive and brandishes a silky jumper from long range. His trey ball looks a lot better than the percentages suggest (32% last season, 33% for his career)--if he can just maintain a little more consistency, an all-conference team will be within reach. Finally, the Cougars will bring a flamethrower off the bench in Caleb Mills. The lanky redshirt-sophomore out of Arden, NC, had one job last season: shoot. Sampson gave him one of the greenest lights in the country, and he responded by leading the team in scoring. Mills mainly gets his baskets out of iso, but he also buries threes off the catch. His high arcing moonball leaves defenders visibly vexed. Idaho transfer Cameron Tyson and freshman Tramon Mark add depth to the guard spots, with Mark receiving more buzz during the preseason. The top-80 recruit has an uncanny resemblance to Jarreau in both physique and style of play. He’ll have a chance to earn some backup point guard minutes, but he can also slide off-ball. In the frontcourt, the Coogs will turn to the gritty trio of Brison Gresham, Justin Gorham, and Arkansas transfer Reggie Chaney. They will all set crushing screens, play aggressive defense, and snare rebounds with tempestuous force. However, Gresham stands a tick above the other two. He’s an explosive vertical athlete who never stops pursuing loose balls. Though his responsibilities seem nondescript, they are no less indispensable--and Gresham will fulfill his role with dedication and selflessness. It’s tough to not marvel at what’s going on in the southeastern corner of the Lone Star State. Because it’s not the booster money of the University of Texas that’s built an up-and-coming powerhouse. Nor is it the private school funds of SMU and TCU. And it’s certainly not the engineering nerds over at Rice. It’s simply the brilliance of a coach who has found both a system that works and the parts that make it hum. TLDR: Projected starters: G - DeJon Jarreau (RSr.), G - Marcus Sasser (So.), G - Quentin Grimes (Jr.), F - Justin Gorham (RSr.), F - Brison Gresham (RSr.) Projected bench: G - Caleb Mills (RSo.), F - Reggie Chaney (Jr.), G - Tramon Mark (Fr.), G - Cameron Tyson (RSo.) Strengths: defense, offensive rebounding, guard depth Weaknesses: fouling, no clear cut alpha, shot selection at times Best player: good question...see the “no clear cut alpha” above Breakout player: Grimes, Sasser, or both 9. Virginia Deep Dive: If you ever doubted the steamroller that is the Virginia defense, look no further than last season for reassurance. Even after losing their three best players from the 2019 National Championship team, Tony Bennett still coached the best defense in the country (by both KenPom and Bart Torvik’s numbers). His pack-line staple operates with a robotic efficiency that gives the Cavaliers a high floor, even if the pieces don’t seem all that special. This year, yet again, the defense will shine for the Wahoo collective. But a gargantuan “Z”-sized question mark still stamps Virginia: “Hoos” gonna score? Last season, Bennett’s boys ranked 234th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Here’s a list of a few teams that finished higher than them in that same metric:
In 2020, Virginia played offense the way that the casual fan thinks they play. Of course, us big brain college basketball folks know that Bennett’s teams usually run a highly-productive offense at a ridiculously slow pace. However, for the second straight season, Virginia lacks prolific scorers that can match the output of players like Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy. Undoubtedly, they will put the ball in the basket more frequently and more successfully than last year (I do have them ranked in the Top 10, after all). But too many unknowns on the offensive end keep me from locking them in as a surefire top-5 contender. One player hoping to remedy the offensive ills is Marquette transfer, Sam Hauser. The redshirt-senior forward has garnered hype throughout the preseason, earning a spot on the Julius Erving Award watch list and the preseason All-ACC First Team. Rob Dauster of The Rebound wrote an excellent analysis of how Bennett will deploy Hauser in both his blocker-mover offense and his continuity ball-screen action. I’m not quite ready to side with Dauster and call him an All-American, but he fits perfectly into his coach's scheme and meets Virginia's most pressing need with his long-range shooting. For his career at Marquette, Hauser made 246 threes at a 44.5% clip. But can any of the guards make life easier on the newcomer? While point guard Kihei Clark throws entrancing passes out of pick-and-roll, defects pepper his scoring ability. The 5’9” junior faces extreme difficulties getting to the cup; he made a grotesque 42% of his shots at the rim (the 4th-worst percentage in the ACC) and hit just 37.5% of his 2-point shots in '19-'20. Then, there’s senior Tomas Woldetensae. The former JuCo standout exhibited lights-out shooting in a few contests last year, but his shot selection remains a major concern (only thirteen made 2-point field goals in '19-'20). Woldetensae bricks way too many Kobe-fadeaways, and he should really just operate as a spot-up three-point specialist. Reprieve along the perimeter may come from a sophomore breakout candidate and/or two heralded freshmen. That sophomore is 6’3” guard Casey Morsell, a former top-60 recruit. High school ranking notwithstanding, Morsell struggled MIGHTILY last season. Looking at his shooting percentages probably brings a queasy feeling to Virginia fans’ stomachs--27.7% from the field and 17.6% from beyond the arc (85.7% from the foul line though!). However, his pedigree prevents me from writing him off after just one season. Morsell doesn't have ideal height for his position, but he can use his brawny build to muscle through defenders around the basket. And he shows off some bunnies in the lane. In four-star prospects Jabri Adur-Rahim (37th in 247Sports Recruiting Composite) and Reece Beekman (66th in 247Sports Recruiting Composite), the Hoos have two frosh who will strive to contribute immediately. Jabri, the son of the third overall pick of the 1996 NBA draft, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, excites the fanbase on his bloodline alone. But he’s more than just an NBA legacy--the 6’6” forward lit up Nike’s EYBL circuit, averaging over 25 points per game. He shines as a slasher, even though he’s not especially explosive, and he could develop into a consistent three-point threat in time. While Abdur-Rahim likely doesn’t crack the starting rotation in year one, he will vastly improve the Hoos’ second unit. Beekman, on the other hand, could be starting by the time March rolls around, despite his lower ranking. The 6’3” guard boasts slick change-of-direction speed and sublime vision; he can both create his own shot and execute live-dribble passes. Although he mainly ran the point in high school, I wouldn’t worry too much about his pairing with Clark (who logged plenty of minutes playing off-ball in 2019). Beekman’s two-way upside could be too much for Bennett to keep him on the bench--if he puts on some muscle, he will flourish in iso and team defensive concepts. (Also, don’t count out sophomore forward Justin McKoy as an impact player. Carolina recruited him, he ultimately chose Virginia, and I just kinda have the feeling he’s gonna be the next "Bennett guy" to come out of nowhere and be awesome). Circling back to the frontcourt, Virginia will trust in redshirt-senior Jay Huff as their security blanket on both offense and defense. The Durham native thrives as a roll-man with a splash of bounce, a scrap of handles, and a smidgen of shooting touch. On the other end, he deters foes from the paint on a nightly basis. As one of the best rim protectors in the country, he'll prop up the interior defense, even after the departure of Mamadi Diakite. Ya know, it’s fun to speculate on Virginia--if their offense returns to form, if Hauser can live up to expectations, if Huff can block 10 shots versus Duke again, etc--but it almost feels like a futile task. In the year of the unprecedented, when oddities mar just about every occurrence, one thing should remain constant: the Virginia Cavaliers will either win the ACC outright or tie for first place. Happens every year, no pandemic can stop that. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Kihei Clark (Jr.), G - Reece Beekman (Fr.), G - Casey Morsell (So.), F - Sam Hauser (RSr.), F/C - Jay Huff (RSr.) Projected bench: G - Tomas Woldetensae (Sr.), F - Jabri Abdur-Rahim (Fr.), F - Kody Stattmann (Jr.), F/C - Kadin Shedrick (RFr.), F - Justin McKoy (So.) Strengths: defense, ball security, controlling tempo, luring opponents into thinking they have a chance Weaknesses: guard play, shot creation, shooting Best player: Hauser (barely over Huff) Breakout player: Morsell 8. Duke Deep Dive: If you just finished reading the Virginia deep dive, you may feel a little confused as to why I ranked Duke higher, since I called the Hoos to win the ACC. That is...unless you follow ACC basketball, then it makes perfect sense. Just about every season, Duke wields the conference's most talented roster on paper. But while real business is done on paper, basketball is not. Thus, year in, year out, the Blue Devils suffer a couple of head-scratching hiccups in ACC play, as they build chemistry. Virginia, on the other hand, stands as a beacon of consistency, marching to victory while Duke irons out the wrinkles. However, I don’t think Blue Devil fans care too much about their bizarre regular-season ACC title drought--because when the postseason arrives, they’re usually playing their best ball. This year will be no different--and though I have some concerns about roster fit, the unrivaled amount of talent pencils them in as a top-10 team. But first, let's look at some of those structural issues. One main fault: their best shooters are their worst defenders and their best defenders are their worst shooters. Take sophomore Matthew Hurt, for example. A rare five-star who returns to Durham for a second season, the 6’9” big man entices audiences with his pure (albeit unorthodox) shooting stroke. Hurt scores most of his points by either spotting up in the corner or leaking out on pick-and-pops--he’s especially money at home, where canned 41.5% of his three-pointers a season ago. But on defense, he got played off the floor in many an ACC contest. Opponents exposed his flat feet and tight hips in ball-screens, repeatedly targeting him in late-game situations: Perhaps most worrisome will be any minutes where Coach K tasks him with playing the “5.” Due to Duke’s bevy of highly-touted forwards, the burden of guarding centers may fall on him, and he simply lacks the size and athleticism to do that. Sophomore Wendell Moore serves as a counterpart to Hurt. A rare five-stars who returns--oh wait, already said that… Anyway, Moore brims with lockdown defender potential, which he flashed in spurts last season. With his length and agility, he can vex guards and wings alike, whether they’re out on the perimeter or attempting to get to the hoop. In iso defense, he takes good angles to cut off driving lanes, and he makes swift rotations in help defense. But last season, he was a virtual zero on the other side of the ball. While handling the rock, he dribbles too high, and he drives into traffic without much of a plan. Compounding matters, he shot 4 for 19 (21%) from beyond the arc as a freshman. Now...I must say, after a year of adjusting to the ACC, his frazzled possessions could become a thing of the past, as he will surely feel more comfortable on offense. But pity both Hurt and Moore if they ever get to thinking they’re irreplaceable... ...Because, as you may expect, Duke ushers in the nation’s third-ranked recruiting class. Jalen Johnson, a 6’8” forward, headlines the freshmen group. He will immediately step into the “playmaking 4” role that guys like Justise Winslow, Brandon Ingram, and Jayson Tatum made famous under Krzyzewski. A scientist with the ball in his hands, Johnson dissects defenses with pinpoint passes that you seldom see a guy his size make. He’ll find cutters from the top of the key and throw dimes nearly the length of the floor when he leads the break. And he also showcases nsane vertical pop when he skies for a dunk in traffic. However, in keeping with Duke's shooting concerns, he lacks a refined three-point jumper. But that’s his only glaring weakness. Regarding the rest of the class, five-star point guard Jeremy Roach and four-star wing Jaemyn Brakefield will also log big minutes. Known as a bulldog on defense, Roach steps in as the heir to Tre Jones and seeks to replicate the annoyance that was Mr. Jones’s on-ball pressure. Brakefield made my “Five Recruits Who Will Outplay Their Ranking” list from early summer, and I am bullish on his athleticism and shot creation. He boasts a versatile scoring package and could exude some Diet RJ Barrett-Zion Williamson vibes alongside Johnson in transition. Then, there’s fringe five-star guard DJ Steward--but he actually scares me the most out of the bunch! In his high school tape, he looks like the kind of guy who could hit 7 threes on Carolina in the Dean Dome. In fact, Steward’s energy, shooting off the bounce, ballhandling, and hair all remind me of...Coby White *ducks* Five-star Mark Williams (7’1”) and four-star Henry Coleman (6’6” but built like a Mack truck) round out the new class and will provide depth to the frontcourt. Williams, in particular, has a chance to earn a starting spot, as a scrapper who provides some much-needed height. And finally, senior Jordan Goldwire, junior Joey Baker, and grad transfer Patrick Tape all fit the “Duke guy” archetype (i.e. not particularly skilled but they play hard). When Coach K lashes into the young guys, they'll boost morale with their leadership and other intangibles. This could be the deepest roster of Duke's one-and-done era. They’ll ratchet up the pace and outscore most of their challengers. But against more formidable opponents, when crunch time hits, how will Coach K arrange his battalion? Again, questions about the roster's cohesiveness block the Blue Devils from entering my top 5; but even I must admit that the ol’ coach has made a custom of successfully retooling year after year. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Jeremy Roach (Fr.), G - DJ Steward (Fr.), G/F - Wendell Moore (So.), F - Jalen Johnson (Fr.), F - Matthew Hurt (So.) Projected bench: G - Jordan Goldwire (Sr.), F - Jaemyn Brakefield (Fr.), C - Mark Williams (Fr.), F - Henry Coleman (Fr.), G - Joey Baker (Jr.), F/C - Patrick Tape (Sr.) Strengths: transition offense, crazy depth on the perimeter, enough shooters to compensate for the non-shooters Weaknesses: questionable roster fit, post depth Best player: Johnson Breakout player: Steward 7. Kentucky Deep Dive: **all analytics/metrics come from Bart Torvik, unless otherwise noted** It’s funny--with all the hoopers John Calipari has sent to the Association, he has never had a dominant point-forward through whom the offense runs. In fact, when you think about wings who played for Cal, Tyler Herro is more of the exception than the rule. Hamidou Diallo, Kevin Knox, and Khalil Whitney all underachieved during their lone season in Lexington, while productive players like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and James Young flamed out in the NBA. Usually, the head coach finds more success leaning on lightning-quick lead guards and hyper-athletic big men. But this year, Cal welcomes in the two most talented perimeter players of his coaching career: BJ Boston and Terrence Clarke. Both stand at 6’7”. Both could be top 5 picks in next year’s NBA draft. And both have that coveted point-forward upside. You may remember Boston as “Not LeBron’s son” from the high school powerhouse Sierra Canyon. Although he isn’t the offspring of the King, he still established himself as the best player for the Trailblazers (had to look that mascot up) a season ago. Boston is an otherworldly scorer who can get to any spot on the floor with his immaculate footwork--even if you guard him closely, he will find a way to create separation. The Georgia product stays balanced as he drains stepbacks, and he uses a deceptive handle to snatch ankles from his adversaries. While skeptics may look at his skin-and-bones frame and question how he’ll fare against the larger, stronger, and more tenured hoopers in the SEC, his tape reveals a surprising effectiveness around the rim. And with a 6’10” wingspan, it’s not like he struggles to dunk the ball, despite lacking top-notch verticality. Like Boston, the rangy Clarke shines with the ball in hands. He furiously rumbles to the basket before elevating above the rim for a dazzling finish. His explosive bounce, his penchant for hawking offensive rebounds, and his soft shooting touch all captivate viewers, fans, and scouts alike. But perhaps his most impressive attribute is his playmaking. It’s rare for freshmen with his length/athleticism combo to have such an advanced feel for the game, yet Clarke displays excellent court vision that distinguishes him from his peers. He commands so much attention on dribble-penetration, which frees up his teammates for easy layups. Unlike the aforementioned Diallo and Whitney (two comparable athletes), he actually knows how to play basketball. While Boston and Clarke will undertake the main scoring responsibilities, their new floor general will serve as the perfect complementary piece. Devin Askew, a 6’3” freshman out of California, exhibits the tight handle and accurate passing needed out of a primary initiator. He flashes both of those traits in transition, out of pick-and-roll, and when he’s freelancing. Askew also appears to be the best shooter Kentucky has seen at the point guard spot since Tyler Ulis was firing missiles for the ‘Cats. While he confidently shoots off the bounce, Cal may use him more as a catch-and-shoot threat, since both Boston and Clarke find more success on-ball. Only twice in his time at Kentucky has Calipari ramped up his squad to a top-50 tempo (2010, 2017); but he’d be a fool not to unleash the Askew-Boston-Clarke triumvirate on the fast break. Let them run, run, run, and dare challengers to keep up. Turning to the frontcourt, you’ll find the one returnee from last year’s rotation in 6’8” hybrid forward Keion Brooks. The sophomore will aspire to build off of an inconsistent freshmen season where he played just 15 minutes per game. With an offensive skillset based more on finesse than power, Brooks looks best popping out to drill a fifteen footer. However, he does play with enough physicality to help control the glass when he’s on the floor. It’s odd to view a former five-star recruit as a “glue guy” rather than an essential player, but Cal mostly needs Brooks to make hustle plays and defend. His offensive role will be reduced due to the stars on the perimeter and the big transfer who lines up next to him. This offseason, former Wake Forest center Olivier Sarr fought tooth-and-nail against the SEC to gain immediate eligibility. After a breakout season where he finished top 15 in the ACC in both offensive rating and usage rate, Sarr bolted for the Bluegrass State upon the firing of Wake coach Danny Manning. Although he’s not an elite pro prospect like Kentucky big men of the past, he can still bully his defender in the paint and score out of isolation in the mid-post. Top-40 freshmen Isaiah Jackson and Lance Ware will supply bench minutes for a sneakily deep frontcourt. Jackson, in particular, has compelled coaches and spectators to marvel at his shot-blocking and overall defensive aptitude. Speaking of defense, no one coaches up freshmen on that side of the ball better than Calipari. And with a stable of menacing, multi-positional defenders at his disposal, his job gets a little bit easier. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Devin Askew (Fr.), G - Terrence Clarke (Fr.), G/F - BJ Boston (Fr.), F - Keion Brooks (So.), C - Olivier Sarr (Sr.) Projected bench: G - Davion Mintz (RSr.), G - Dontaie Allen (So.), G/F - Cam’Ron Fletcher (Fr.), F - Isaiah Jackson (Fr.), F - Lance Ware (Fr.) Strengths: rebounding, having two potential top-5 picks on the roster Weaknesses: inexperience, point guard depth Best player: B’Jerrence Clarkeston Breakout player: Askew 6. West Virginia Deep Dive: It's no secret that the game of basketball has drifted away from the post and towards the perimeter. Initially, the “pace and space” obsession only pervaded the NBA, but in recent years, more and more college coaches--even ones who cut their teeth on inside-out ball--have adopted smaller, speedier three-point oriented attacks. Bill Self moved away from two traditional bigs back in 2016; Roy Williams played without a true “5” in both 2018 and 2019; Mark Few even played the 6’7” three-point maestro Corey Kispert at the “4” in some lineups last season. As the sport evolves, a temptation to disregard the importance of post players surfaces in the heart of every hoops junkie. But fear not. There's a certain pullover-clad chap in Morgantown ready to combat that notion. Bob Huggins will ask more out of his big men than almost any other coach in the country. And in sophomore Oscar Tshiebwe and junior Derek Culver, Huggs has two hulks capable of carrying the load. The two mountains for the Mountaineers define the team’s identity with their rebounding and defense. On the glass, Tshiebwe and Culver cover all the bases: And their presence in the paint serve as the lynchpin for a top 3 defense nationally, per KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. When facing ball-screen action, both bigs can hedge on the ballhandler then recover super quickly on their man if he rolls to the hoop. This tactic snuffs out any opportunity at the rim for their opponents. Also, Tshiebwe and Culver display a propensity for creating splash plays on defense. Observe the play below, where Tshiebwe flaunts his relentless motor, impeccable timing, and freakish acceleration: Lastly, the two big men posted impressive block percentages in the Big 12 last year, coming in at 6th and 11th, respectively. With their imposing stature and Samson-like strength, they make most athletes who step to them look like this kid: The rest of the team seems to follow their lead. The Mountaineers trot out two perimeter defenders who specialize in making wings uncomfortable in junior Emmitt Matthews and senior Taz Sherman. And sophomore guard Miles “Deuce” McBride emerged as defensive deviant last season; he torments opposing guards for 94 feet and disrupts offensive flow with his quick hands. While West Virginia’s defense and rebounding cover a multitude of issues, the ‘Eers must repair their cracks on offense if they want to contend for a national title. Tshiebwe will again factor heavily into this reconstruction, as he furthers his development. Last season, he certified himself as one of the most athletic bigs in the country, galloping down the floor for transition buckets. But I would love to see him add some diversity to his halfcourt game, instead of relying too much on catch-and-dunks. Though his shooting touch can be inconsistent, he did make 26 two-point jumpers last season (per hoop-math.com), indicating some unearthed aptness from mid-range. However, West Virginia's three-point shooting remains their most blatant problem. Last season, the Mountaineers acted as brick masons, canning just 28.6% of their long-range attempts, ranking a dismal 338th in the country. No player made more than 29 threes and no one shot higher than 33% from behind the arc. Poor court awareness augments the heinous shooting numbers, further hampering spacing. But a few reinforcements could alleviate these headaches. First, Huggins welcomes in the 3rd ranked JuCo prospect in 6’4” guard Kedrian Johnson. Three Man Weave’s Matt Cox (one of like three Duke fans that I like) wrote a thorough profile on Johnson in his WVU preview, highlighting his scoring virtuosity and his explosive first step. Second, the Mountaineers’ best shooter, Sean McNeill, now has a year of experience in Huggins’ system. Another former JuCo stud (just look at this resume!), McNeill never found his footing during his first year of major conference ball--he made those previously mentioned 29 threes, but only at a pedestrian 33% clip. However, per an interview with 247Sports, both McNeill and his coach expressed faith that a bounce back season looms: “I thought about it way too much,” McNeill said, “It’s why they recruited me and what they were telling me to come in and do. They wanted to be able to space the floor for Derek and Oscar, and I was just so panicked about it...I was thinking about it almost too much last year. ‘Got to make shots.’ For shooters, that’s just something that you can’t do. You can’t think about it. Once you start thinking, the chances are more than not that you’re going to end up missing." Huggins also adds redshirt-freshman Jalen Bridges, a 6’7” sniper, to the rotation. Bridges’ rapid-fire release will be like a flowing spring to the prolonged shooting droughts that wrought pestilence on the offense a season ago. As a bonafide triggerman off the catch, Bridges will receive plenty of open looks off of all the gravity the big men command. And finally, the aforementioned Deuce McBride is my favorite sophomore breakout contender in the country. Despite a sub-300 high school ranking, the 6’2” guard finished third on the team in scoring and made the Big 12 All-Freshman team in ‘19-’20. His shooting off the bounce meets a need that no other ‘Eer comes close to providing; Deuce shows off a crafty handle and deceptive head fakes, and he transitions into his shooting motion so quickly. McBride’s two-way promise gives off some serious Jevon Carter 2.0 vibes. The dude is gonna be a terror to play against this year. Regardless of whether or not the offensive woes subside, West Virginia will sledgehammer teams with their rugged defense every single game. Their expertise on that end of the ball will keep them in the upper-echelon of the ridiculously top-heavy Big 12. If the new faces gel and the shooting percentage creeps up to the national average, Huggy Bear could reach the Final Four for the first time since 2010. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Miles McBride (So.), G - Sean McNeill (RJr.), F - Emmitt Matthews (Jr.), F - Oscar Tshiebwe (So.), F - Derek Culver (Jr.) Projected bench: G - Kedrian Johnson (Jr.), G - Taz Sherman (Sr.), G/F - Jalen Bridges (RFr.), G - Jordan McCabe (Jr.), F - Isaiah Cottrell (Fr.), F - Gabe Osabuohien (Sr.) Strengths: defense (potentially the best in the country), forcing turnovers, offensive rebounding, depth Weaknesses: passing, shooting, smart offensive play Best player: Tshiebwe Breakout player: McBride |
AuthorRiley Davis Archives
June 2021
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Photo used under Creative Commons from MarsInOrbit