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Click here for part one and here for part two. Teams 20 through 16: 20. Oregon Deep Dive: I can only imagine the morose and dejected feelings that descended upon Oregon fans after COVID wiped away the NCAA Tournament. Losing a program legend like Payton Pritchard hurts enough--but losing him and missing out on his last quest for immortality? Surely that inflicted unspeakable anguish upon the Ducks' faithful. ...But perhaps a star in waiting can stitch up the open wound. I would direct Oregon fans to observe two recent Kansas teams. In 2017, Frank Mason piloted a machine of a Jayhawk team that dismantled almost every challenger; behind Mason’s National Player of the Year campaign, Kansas went 28-3 in the regular season before flaming out in the Elite 8 versus...the Oregon Ducks and an emerging freshman named Peyton Pritchard. The following season, Needham B. Broughton’s finest Devonte’ Graham took over for the graduated Mason...and the Jayhawks didn’t miss a beat. They actually advanced further in the Tourney, making it all the way to the Final Four, where a historically great Villanova team went all Buddy-the-Elf-in-a-snowball-fight on them from beyond the three-point line. Nonetheless, what Kansas had in Graham, Oregon may have in junior Will Richardson. The 6’5” lefty ignited the offense off the pine for the first part of the season before entering the starting lineup for the last 13 games. His first two contests as a starter were...not good (1 and 0 points, respectively). But since those stats don’t help the point I’m about to make, I’m going to discard them and attribute them to Richardson adjusting to a new role. Because for the next 11 games, he dominated--Richardson averaged 14 points while shooting an incomprehensible 52% on a high volume of threes. In addition, it seemed as if Pritchard shared a little slice of his clutch pie with Richardson during conference play--his go-ahead basket in an overtime comeback win versus Arizona sticks out as a defining moment. Richardson’s scoring prowess pops all over the court. Last season, he was one of just three guards in Pac-12 who ranked top 15 in effective field goal percentage with a usage rate of over 18%. He’s also a plus rebounder for his position, and last year’s 115 assists to only 49 turnovers illustrate his excellent feel for the game. Look for him to flash more of his passing acumen this season.
On the perimeter, senior Chris Duarte will flank Richardson. The former JuCo standout proved that he belongs in the Conference of Champions a year ago--during league play, he averaged nearly 14 points and 6 rebounds per contest. I don’t think any coach would complain about having a 6’6” athlete who can get open off-ball with exceptional cuts; but with Dana Altman, Duarte has found a coach who maximizes his skillset, taking advantage of his size on smaller guards. But after Duarte, Altman can call upon a variety of options: Duquesne transfer Eric Williams Jr., UNLV transfer Amauri Hardy, and Rutgers transfer Eugene Omoruyi will all compete for starting slots on the wing or in the frontcourt. Williams, a redshirt junior, looks like everything you want in a forward; he’s not ball-dominant, cleans both the defensive and offensive glass, attacks closeouts, and knocks down corner threes. Plus, as a sit-out transfer, he has already developed some chemistry with his teammates. Hardy needs the ball in his hands, so he may be best suited as a sparkplug off the bench (no way that he starts over Richardson or Duarte). For a 6’2” guard, he’s pretty compact; thus, his size should hold up against the bigger bodies of the Pac-12. The chiseled Omoruyi offers the most versatility: he’s a dogged rebounder who can grab and go, he can bang in the post but can also space the floor, and he brings a little passing spice from the forward position. Protecting the rock and improving consistency in his three-point shot will prove to be prime factors in sustaining his playing time. In the frontcourt, Altman can play Williams or Omoruyi as small ball “4”s, or he can rely on sophomores Chandler Lawson and N’Faly Dante if he wants to play a traditional two big lineup. Offensive limitations hinder Lawson’s ceiling (although he did post the highest assist rate of any big man in the Pac-12 last season, per Bart Torvik), but he factored heavily into Oregon’s staunch interior defense. For Dante, everything that could go wrong did go wrong in year one--after re-classing, the NCAA botched his paperwork, and then doubled-down on their mistake by forcing him to sit out a semester. If it wasn’t hard enough for a 17-year-old to play catch-up, he suffered a lingering knee injury in late January, limiting him to just 12 games on the season. Still, he offers two-way upside if it all clicks. He could evolve into a Megalodon version of Jordan Bell as a shot-blocking menace on defense and a dunk-everything, offensive-rebounding titan on offense. With Richardson sliding into the lead guard role, Duarte slotting in as his copilot, and a stable of formidable wings and frontcourt options, the Ducks could once again hover around the top 10 of offensive efficiency (5th in KenPom’s adjOE in 2019-20). The largest strides, however, must be made on the defensive end. Despite flummoxing foes in March with his morphing defense, Altman’s scheme produces varying results over the greater course of the season. In particular, they defended the three-point line terribly last season. Like any zone defense, Oregon’s matchup zone leaves itself susceptible to three-point barrages--but I think it’s more than just a weakness in the system. The Ducks regularly looked lethargic and confused in their rotations and recoveries. Below are back-to-back plays versus Colorado: Per Haslametrics, they surrendered the nation's 15th highest amount of three-point attempts versus the average opponent. Their challengers converted a middle-of-the-pack 32.6% of those attempts, but if they don’t sharpen their discipline, some positive regression and/or bad luck could cause that number to inflate. Still, there are reasons to believe they can and will improve in this area. More depth on the wing plus the maturation of players in their second year in the program should alone mitigate some of these concerns. Additionally, Oregon will continue to trap ballhandlers before they cross halfcourt, which will yield plenty of breakaway steals (Duarte, in particular, shines at picking pockets and jumping passing lanes). Improving their defense to a top 40 unit seems possible, which will be needed if they want to win the sneakily deep Pac 12. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Will Richardson (Jr.), G - Chris Duarte (Sr), G/F - Eric Williams (RJr.), F - Eugene Omoruyi (RJr.), C - N’Faly Dante (So.) Projected bench: G - Amauri Hardy (Sr.), F - Chandler Lawson (So.), G - Jalen Terry (Fr.) Strengths: three-point shooting, ball movement, guard play Weaknesses: three-point defense, defensive rebounding Best player: Richardson Breakout player: Dante 19. Michigan State Deep Dive: Similar to Oregon, Michigan State too must supplant a program legend in the backcourt. A year ago, Cassius Winston persevered through the emotional turmoil of losing his brother to prime the Spartans for another deep postseason run. His demonstration of mental fortitude--to play at an All-American level while carrying a mountainous burden of grief--still amazes me to this day. He’s one of the rare collegiate athletes that no one, literally no one, can cheer against. And unfortunately for Sparty, he’s not the only cornerstone they have to replace. Xavier Tillman ignored Dick Vitale’s scoop and headed to the Association (side note: he should be been a lottery pick). Had he returned to East Lansing, Tillman would have been my preseason player of the year (not even gonna pretend to be sorry, Luka); and although Tom Izzo has established himself as a big man savant, finding someone who can replicate Tillman’s interior defense and playmaking will be no easy matter. Marquette transfer Joey Hauser will hold down one starting frontcourt spot, and he could blossom into the centerpiece on offense. As a freshman for the Golden Eagles, Hauser flashed a smooth three-point jumper (45 makes at a 42% clip) that's especially lethal in pick-and-pop action. His deceptive pump fake gets his defender off his feet, where he can then capitalize with an impressive handle for a big man. Hauser also scores capably on the block. I don’t think Izzo gets enough credit for his offensive expertise--his teams can both push in transition and run some gorgeous halfcourt sets. In those latter scenarios, the Spartans use a heavy dosage of pick and roll, along with some flares and pin-downs, to generate their buckets. In addition, they play with exquisite movement, manipulating defenses with off-ball cutters that take attention away from shooters. It’s no coincidence that Michigan State has finished in the top 15 of KenPom’s adjOE in four of the last five seasons; Hauser can help that trend continue. Juniors Marcus Bingham and Thomas Kithier, sophomore Julius Marble, and freshman Mady Sissoko will all compete for the job next to Hauser. The members of the non-frosh trio kind of blend together into a mesh of mediocrity--although maybe Bingham can burgeon in an expanded role. Defensively, his mobility allows him to hedge ball screens and recover quickly, and his 6’11” frame aids him in blocking shots. However, in a conference where behemoth big men set the norm, he must add weight to his slim physique. Sissoko offers intriguing upside as a brawny, springy top-40 freshman. Originally from Mali, Sissoko immigrated to Utah to play high school basketball through a connection with Doctors Without Borders. The freshman has only played organized basketball for four years, but his physical profile and athleticism suggest that he will develop into a rotation player this season. With exceptional vertical pop, he elevates off the floor so effortlessly when he skies for an offensive board. Combining his bounce with his mass equates to a tough assignment for any opposing big--his ridiculous strength propels him to finish over and through sizable defenders. Developing softer hands and more offensive moves will remain points of focus for Sissoko’s development. Don’t expect him to come in and average a double-double, but at the very least, he will bludgeon backup big men when he comes off the bench. On the perimeter, Sparty has a little more clarity. Both Gabe Brown and Aaron Henry will provide steadiness and experience to the starting lineup. This season, the junior Brown could blossom into a corner-three killer. After hitting 37% of his trey balls as a freshman, he regressed to 34% last season. But his pure form and his machine-like free throw shooting (36 of 38 from the line in 2019-20) indicate that number should trend back upward. Fellow junior Aaron Henry started to churn potential into production down the stretch of conference play. He crashes the glass with tenacity, especially compared to other players at his position, and he boasts a well-rounded offensive game. Although he doesn’t shine in self-creation, he still finds success when posting up smaller guards and knocking down catch-and-shoot threes. Additionally, his IQ and passing distinguish him from your average wing; he dished almost three assists per game last season. While he may never develop into the lottery-type talent that folks envisioned during his freshman year, he could average a 14, 6, and 4 kind of stat line this season. Now, the hard part...replacing that Winston guy. Izzo will give the first crack at it to sophomore Rocket Watts. Here are three key facts about Watts that make me kind of infatuated with him:
For all the fun things about Watts, I do have concerns regarding his ability to involve his teammates. In transition, he makes the right reads, and he can find big men for pocket passes when he gets into the lane. But he won’t dissect defenses out of pick-and-roll like Cassius (at least not right away). Thus, a limited amount of lead guard options may hamper the Spartans if Watts doesn’t pan out. Freshman AJ Hoggard, a thickly built top 80 recruit, and junior Foster Loyer, the Andrew Platek of the Big Ten, will initially compete for backup minutes. Finally, Izzo’s defense will keep this team afloat even if the offense sputters while players acclimate to their new jobs. Again, I doubt some combination of Hauser, Bingham, Marble, Kithier, and Sissoko can come close to matching Tillman’s level of rim protection--but the pieces on the perimeter will alleviate some of the pressure. Henry and Brown can both guard multiple positions, and if redshirt-senior Josh Langford regains some of his pre-injury fire, he will also lockdown go-to scorers. Plus Watts’ nonstop activity on the defensive end ties opposing guards’ stomachs in knots. So even in a pseudo-rebuilding year, the Spartans maintain a great chance to finish top four in the Big Ten. But can Rocket launch them into a deep run in March? (sorry, had to) TLDR: Projected starters: G - Rocket Watts (So.), G - Aaron Henry (Jr.), G/F - Gabe Brown (Jr.), F - Joey Hauser (RJr.), F - Marcus Bingham (Jr.) Projected bench: G - Josh Langford (RSr.), G - AJ Hoggard (Fr.), F - Malik Hall (So.), F - Mady Sissoko (Fr.), F - Julius Marble (So.), F - Thomas Kithier (Jr.) Strengths: frontcourt options/depth, solid perimeter defenders, Joey Hauser pick-and-pops Weaknesses: replacing Cassius Winston Best player: Hauser Breakout player: Watts 18. Florida State Deep Dive: Florida State walked so that the Denver Nuggets could fly. That’s right--the true pioneers of “Tall Ball” dwell in Tallahassee. Leonard Hamilton rarely calls upon an athlete shorter than 6’4”, and as custom, the ‘Noles will again trot out a terrifying troupe of towering titans. With height, athleticism, and depth throughout the roster, Florida State will win with a swarming style of defense. Like Pennywise the Clown in Stephen King’s It, they mix and match their assortment of players to shape-shift into their opponents’ biggest fears. Hamilton will apply pressure, either full-court or as soon as the opposing guard crosses halfcourt. Attempts at making even basic entry passes prove challenging, as the ‘Noles deny and jump passing lanes at an elite level (9th in defensive turnover rate in 2019-20 per Bart Torvik). If an offense can move past the first wave of defenders and get the ball into the lane, Florida State’s help defenders collapse, immediately preventing easy baskets. Okay, so what if the ballhandler kicks out to the corner? Well, the ‘Noles’ wings and forwards possess both the length and the speed to recover on close-outs. These traits helped Florida State post a top-15 defense in both of the last two seasons, per KenPom. However, this year, they must replace the lynchpin of this unit: point guard Trent Forrest. A couple of candidates will contend to fill his role as the hyper-pesky on-ball disruptor. Senior RayQuan Evans made the transition from the JuCo ranks to the ACC last season, and he swiftly adjusted to the major conference life, performing admirably off the bench. Evans fits the prototype of the Hamilton guard--tall, broad shoulders, long arms, quick feet, and an always-churning motor. He even showed promise to make some splash plays on defense: Five-star freshman Scottie Barnes will also work in as a point-of-attack defender. The multiuse forward harassed elite point guards like Sharife Cooper and Reece Beekman at the high school level. Below, notice how Barnes completely smothers Beekman, snuffing out his next move before smacking the ball out of his hand. When an offense gets set, Hamilton can rely upon a bevy of switchable wings to stymie opposing perimeter threats. Seniors MJ Walker and Anthony Polite will both play a crucial part in maintaining defensive excellence. Polite, in particular, executes off-ball defense with near flawlessness, notching deflections and steals galore. In iso situations, he willingly accepts the challenge of guarding both speedy guards and powerful wings. In junior RaiQuan Gray and redshirt-junior Malik Osborne, the Seminoles possess two bigs who can secure the paint but also won’t falter if they match up with a stretch big who draws them out to the three-point line. Oh yeah, Barnes is also awesome at swatting shots when rotating over from the weak side if Hamilton wants to slide him down to the “4.”
On offense, the head coach may ask Barnes to handle a higher usage than his one-and-done players of the past. Guys like Malik Beasley, Jonathan Isaac, and Pat Williams all played alongside bonafide shot creators. Evans certainly has the potential to blossom into a true lead guard, and Walker has shown a touch of self-creation, but neither are alpha dogs. Look for Hamilton to turn Barnes loose in transition, where he can either stampede down the court to get open for a dunk or run the break himself, delivering dimes to his teammates. In the halfcourt, he comfortably operates out of the post but also has the vision, IQ, and handle to run some point. Regarding the rest of the offense, Polite offers some Devin Vassell Lite appeal with his smooth lefty jumper. I don’t expect him to make an All-ACC team or anything, but his ability to space the floor will prove vital for this squad. Both Gray and Osborne offer unique skillsets in the frontcourt. The burly Gray shows a fearlessness on the dribble-drive--sometimes to his detriment. But his size and power make him a load to handle. He also has demonstrated slick passing throughout his career, finding shooters in the corner on his drives and slinging outlet passes on the fast break. Osborne can both bang down low and pop out to fifteen feet. Though his biggest asset is his furious offensive rebounding. Despite averaging less than 20 minutes per game, he notched the 17th most offensive boards in the ACC. Although Hamilton pivoted to this smaller lineup with Gray and Osborne, he still (of course) has a 7-foot Goliath at his disposal. Sophomore Balsa Koprivica will play a larger share of minutes in his second year. Likely the flagship player in the second unit, the Serbian Seminole will keep the post play steady when the starters need a rest. A final x-factor may exist in JuCo transfer Sardaar Calhoun. Projecting JuCo players always presents a challenge, but Calhoun definitely has ACC-caliber athleticism. For his former school, Missouri State-West Plains, he exhibited confidence in shooting pull-up jumpers. However, he contorts his body in some weird ways when he fires from beyond the arc (just watch his highlights and you’ll see what I mean). The amount of time it takes him to get his three-point shot off gives me pause in assuming his scoring prowess translates. Nonetheless, I have a hard time seeing the ‘Noles dropping out of the Top 25 at any point in the season. The stout defense solidifies their floor, and if Barnes’ play matches his pedigree, Florida State could once again celebrate an ACC Championship TLDR: Projected starters: G - RayQuan Evans (Sr.), G - Anthony Polite (Jr.), F - Scottie Barnes (Fr.), F - RaiQuan Gray (Jr.), F - Malik Osborne (Sr.) Projected bench: G - MJ Walker (Sr.), G - Saardar Calhoun (Jr.), F - Balsa Koprivica (So.), G/F - Nathanael Jack (Sr.), F - Wyatt Wilkes (Sr.) Strengths: length, defense (turnovers, specifically), the power duo of RayQuan and RaiQuan Weaknesses: shot creation, unproven go-to scorer Best player: Barnes Breakout player: Polite 17. UCLA Deep Dive: Talk about a weird year for the UCLA Bruins. When the season began, disaster ensued. UCLA suffered through an embarrassment in Maui, home losses to Hofstra and Cal State Fullerton, and constant ridicule of head coach Mick Cronin. But when spring burst forth, optimism bloomed. The team started gelling, do-everything guard Chris Smith emerged, and the Bruins strung together a seven-game winning streak to finish second in the Pac-12. But of course, COVID ruined everything, and a summer full of trials followed. First, UCLA lost a commitment from five-star point guard Daishen Nix (G League). Next, wildfires broke out in the state, not only creating another health crisis but also prolonging lockdowns that kept practices from happening. And still, amid a tilt-a-whirl of experiences, Cronin and his squad sit among the favorites for the Pac-12 title. They could even flirt with a top-10 ranking at some point this season. Surprisingly, they don't always win ugly like his Cincinnati squads. If you’re like me, you probably picture a mixture of rugby and WWE on a basketball court when you think about Bearcat basketball. During Cronin's thirteen years there, an imposing defense always belied a stagnant offense. But those days appear to be gone. Now, the head coach returns a talented, versatile, and modern roster for year two in Westwood. Most of the Bruins’ firepower can be found along the perimeter--the aforementioned Smith made a surprising return to school, and he gives UCLA a proven go-to scorer. After two uninspiring seasons, the 6’9” wing erupted during his junior year, earning both the Pac-12’s Most Improved Player award and First Team all-conference honors. His progress on the offensive end cannot be overstated--as both a freshman and a sophomore, he posted sub-90 offensive ratings in conference play (a 100 offensive rating is average) along with negative offensive box plus-minuses. Both of those statistics shot up last season as Smith improved his three-point shot, his handle, and his ability to get to the free throw line. The next step for Smith will be developing in shot creation and adding some counter moves to his dribble package. He can already use his length to shoot over defenders and finish through traffic, but scoring more off the bounce would elevate both his pro prospects and his team’s ceiling. UCLA’s winning streak coincided with Cronin’s decision to implement a small line-up. That should again be the case this year. Alongside Smith, the Bruins possess a stable of well-rounded wings, highlighted by juniors Jules Bernard and David Singleton, sophomores Jaime Jaquez and Jake Kyman, and newcomer Johnny Juzang. Both Bernard and Singleton saw their offensive efficiency tank in their sophomore seasons, but part of that results from switching to a new system. Bernard looks best moving without the ball, finding ways to get open for a look near the basket. Singleton, on the other hand, functions more as a three-point specialist; last season, he attempted 92 three-pointers to just 21 two-pointers. Although he operates most effectively off-ball, Cronin tasked him with backup point guard duties last year--a duty with which he struggled. Singleton again may have to play ten-ish minutes a game at the “1,” but he should fair better with a season of experience. With Jaquez, Kyman, and Juzang, Cronin has three guys who could break out as the Bruins’ second-leading scorer (assuming Smith repeats as the leader). Although he barely cracked the top-100 of his high school rankings, Jaquez quickly asserted himself as one of the best freshmen in the Pac-12. Though not the quickest, he often catches his defender off-balance with a shot fake before violently attacking the rim. And if he decides to pull from long-range, he can convert with a soft touch. He only made 31% of his threes last season, but that number out to jump up this year. Down the stretch of conference play, he also hit some crunch time buckets. Kyman exploded in a handful of games last season, knocking down contested long balls with ease--he made 7 threes at Washington, 4 at Oregon, and 5 versus Arizona State. Whether off a screen or off the catch, one dribble or zero, in transition or in the halfcourt, his strong base and his high release make every shot look like it’s going in. Juzang offers a similar upside. Buried under future pros Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickley, the Kentucky transfer only saw 12 minutes per game as a frosh. However, the early word out of UCLA indicates that he has been the best shooter in practices. From February through March, the Bruins shot 35% from three as a team. With the addition of Juzang and the progression of Jaquez and Kyman, I only see that percentage increasing. Some combination of those wings will space either Jalen Hill or Cody Riley down low. Speaking of...remember three years ago when LiAngelo Ball and two teammates had a run-in with Chinese law enforcement over shoplifting in a Gucci store? Well, those non-Ball brother Bruins were, in fact, Hill and Riley. However, a lot changes in three years, and both make winning contributions with their rebounding and interior defense. Finally, redshirt-sophomore point guard Tyger Campbell will function as the primary initiator. Every year, I find myself irrationally latching onto a limited player that I think can achieve stardom. Last season, I predicted that Nojel Eastern would earn All-Big Ten honors. Talk about an All-Big Yikes on my part. But this season, I’m hoping for better luck. Because I SAW A TYGER, AND I UNDERSTAND! Campbell’s vision is divine--he has that Cassius Winston-like gifting to see where his teammates will be three steps before they get there. His live-dribble passing blesses shooters in the corner, and his pick-and-roll wizardry allows the big men to eat. Though, in order for Campbell to ascend into the elite lead guard stratosphere, he must become a more consistent scorer. Far too often last season, he would turn in a 2-for-10 performance. That won’t cut it. But every so often, like a February home win against Utah, he flashed strong finishing at the rim and dynamic shooting off the bounce. If Tyger can become a 13-15 point scorer, the Bruins can make it to the final weekend of the Tournament. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Tyger Campbell (RSo.), G - Chris Smith (Sr.), G - David Singleton (Jr.), F - Jaime Jaquez (So.), F - Jalen Hill (RJr.) Projected bench: G - Jules Bernard (Jr.), G - Johnny Juzang (So.), F - Cody Riley (RJr.), G - Jake Kyman (So.), G - Jaylen Clark (Fr.) Strengths: Ball movement, selfless play, perimeter depth Weaknesses: Inconsistent offense, point guard depth Best Player: Smith Breakout Player: Campbell or Juzang 16. Wisconsin Deep Dive: I'm sure you've heard the sports cliche “it’s the name on the front of the jersey that matters most, not the name on the back." Is there a team that better epitomizes that saying than the Wisconsin Badgers? Wait...you mean to tell me that they do have their last names on their jerseys now? Since when? How did I miss this? I blame being out of the country for a year. But still, the premise rings true. In late January, most college basketball fans (me included) thought Kobe King’s controversial departure would leave Wisconsin for dead and cost Greg Gard his job. As their best wing, King seemed to be an indispensable piece on the team. But the Badgers turned dissension to determination, rallying to win 9 of their last 11 contests en route to a share of the Big Ten title. This year, Wisconsin will set out to prove that their spring surge was no aberration. And since they return 78.5% of last season’s minutes (per Bart Torvik), they have a huge opportunity to silence their critics. However, I’m a little more skeptical of the Badgers than most media outlets: for one, they lost Brevin Pritzl, perhaps their best three-point shooter, to graduation. For two, they don’t really bring in any significant new players. And for three, even after winning the nation’s deepest league, they still only finished 22nd on KenPom. Now, I don’t want to completely diminish the way they closed out the season--after all, they beat Michigan State and won at Michigan. But during their hot streak, no other opponent cracked the top 25, and the only other road wins came against an awful Nebraska team and a mediocre Indiana squad. It’s fair to question if they can raise their ceiling much higher than that 22nd KenPom rank. Though, one thing Gard can do to better his team is keep featuring Micah Potter. The former Buckeye completed his sit-out year in December and debuted for the Badgers as soon as he gained eligibility. Despite only starting three games, the big man balled out in conference play, averaging 11 points and 7 rebounds during February and March. With a 6’10” frame and a multifaceted skillset, Potter opens up the offense; he can make plays around the basket, and his perimeter strengths create matchup problems that few teams can counter. For example, watch the dribble-handoff he runs with D’Mitrik Trice that leads to an easy dunk: But Potter’s shooting provides the Badgers’ with their most needed asset. As a true pick-and-pop maestro, he commands so much gravity with his screens. If the defenders switch, he’ll shoot over the smaller guy. If the defender goes over the screen, he’ll lure an opposing big out of the lane. If the defender hedges, he’s rolling free for a dunk. His picks pose such an imposing threat that even if he fakes setting one, he casts his defender into oblivion: His days coming off the bench are likely over, as Gard will be determined to iron out his pairing with fellow senior Nate Reuvers. The defensive concerns of deploying two athletically-limited big men gave the head coach pause last season, but the potential offensive boost may be worth the risk. Reuvers thrives with his back to the basket, as he scores most of his points on post-ups. However, he has also made 74 three-pointers in his career at a 33.6% clip, so he can stretch the floor as well. Perhaps most important, he draws double teams in the post which gives more room for the Badgers’ wings and guards to work. Senior Aleem Ford rounds out the frontcourt, as he can play either the “3” or the “4,” should Gard send one of his skyscrapers to the bench. Ford moves well without the ball, exhibits strength at the rim, and knocks down catch-and-shoot threes. Wisconsin will need these three at their best, as they have experienced more inconsistency in their backcourt. In seniors D’Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison, the Badgers have two volatile guards who “wow” you in spurts and leave you frustrated in other moments. Trice has some wiggle in his game and can score off the bounce, but he has never shot better than 38.4% from the field. Although he can catch fire from beyond the arc, his tendency to shoot his team out of the game flares up too frequently. In the final minutes of the aforementioned Michigan State win, Trice attempted bad shot after bad shot. Davison’s reputation precedes him after getting caught taking cheap shots on multiple occasions. However, his play on the court maintains a little more stability than Trice’s. His compact frame and underrated strength enable him to score at the rim, and he can bury a three with a hand in his face. Also, he can score in iso surprisingly well, even though, like Trice, his shot selection is spotty. While I don’t expect Trice or Davison to improve exponentially, just cleaning up some of their inefficiency could make an enormous difference in close games. On the opposite end, the Badgers will, as usual, pride themselves on a taxing brand of defense. By controlling the pace with their tedious tempo (342nd in the country), Wisconsin limits opponents possessions. In the halfcourt, they swiftly take away quality looks, running their opponents off the three-point line and forcing them into mid-rangers. Per Haslametrics, the Badgers boasted the 14th best defense in the nation against mid-range jumpers and the 40th best defense against shots near the rim. Simply put, there is no easy way to score against them. If games in the 50s are your thing, Wisconsin’s got you covered. While their style of basketball provides very few frills and thrills (just ask Tyler Herro), the Badgers remain a harrowing test for any Big Ten team. They don’t bring in any heralded recruits or any flashy transfers, but their continuity and their experience could lift them above their peers--especially as some of the other heavyweights of the Big Ten must replace their own stars and stalwarts. TLDR: Projected starters: G - D’Mitrik Trice (RSr.), G - Brad Davison (Sr.), F - Aleem Ford (Sr.), F - Micah Potter (RSr.), F - Nate Reuvers (Sr.) Projected bench: F - Tyler Wahl (So.), G - Johnny Davis (Fr.), F - Trevor Anderson (RSr.), F - Ben Carlson (Fr.) Strengths: Seniority/experience, defense (solid all-around, i.e. vs. the three, the mid-range, and at at the rim), decent three-point shooting Weaknesses: depth (they got none of it), low upside players, shot selection of guards Best player: Potter Breakout player: Potter? If you don’t count last year a breakout. He could average 15+ points this year
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June 2021
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