All season long, the talking heads of college basketball have bemoaned the "lack of elite teams." This seems like an annual conversation point that usually fades by early January. But here we are, at the threshold of the thick of conference play, and it's still the locus of discussion.
So why does this come up every year? Well, I think the notion of "no elite teams" can be traced back to 2015, when the top-seven teams in KenPom's final rankings all finished with four losses or fewer.
2015 set an unrealistic standard. Compare it to just one year later, when no team in KenPom's final top 10 finished with less than five losses. Usually, I think people vastly exaggerate the "no elite teams" argument.
Usually. Because if you're a college hoops die-hard, you've probably thought something along the lines of "gee...it feels like there were like eight teams from last season that could beat any of this year's top 5 by double digits." And you might be right. KenPom has a metric called Adjusted Efficiency Margin (or AdjEM, for short) that estimates "the number of points a team would be expected to outscore the average Division-I team over 100 possessions without adjusting for location of the game." At the time of writing, Duke boasts the highest AdjEM with +30.30. That number would have ranked fourth last season. Moreover, the 2019 versions of Virginia, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Duke, Texas Tech, Michigan, North Carolina (I miss that team so much), and Kentucky all possessed higher AdjEMs than the current number two team, Kansas. So no elite teams. At least not yet. In conjunction with this chaos, the National Player of the Year race features some stars from unorthodox teams (and some not so orthodox). But the field still feels wide open. In this first post, I've outlined some under-the-radar candidates listed in order of least likely to most likely to win it. I'll post the favorites later this week. The Dark Horses Oscar Tshiebwe - F/C, West Virginia, Fr. Why he will win it: Bob Huggins' first McDonald's All-American in school history has quickly healed the trauma from last year's abysmal season. Although the head coach laid "Press Virginia" to rest, Tshiebwe and the Mountaineers haven't stuttered in stymying opposing offenses. They lead the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and rank second in three-point defense, per Bart Torvik. In addition, they are holding their opponents to a 39.4 effective field goal percentage--also good for tops in the country, per hoop-math.com. A captain of the fictitious All-Weight Room Team, Tshiebwe's terrifying paint presence diverts opponents from the lane, forcing them into low-percentage shots. Against Texas Tech this past weekend, the Red Raiders converted just 30% of their shot attempts, as Tshiebwe browbeat any challenger who stepped to the rim. In the above clip, Texas Tech's Kyler Edwards initially beat him; but Tshiebwe recovered in time to punish him with a demoralizing deflection-- one of four on the evening. But Tshiebwe is more than a big bodied shot-blocker--as one of the best athletes in the Big 12, he can guard in space, which has enabled Huggins to unleash a dominant switchable defense. If West Virginia earns a 1 or 2 seed and wins either the Big 12 regular season or the Big 12 tournament, the freshman will earn some buzz for the country's top award. Why he won't win it: Offense matters. Tshiebwe is averaging a respectable 12 points per game, but he is still a work in progress on that end. Also, this year's West Virginia is more of a "sum of its parts" kind of team as opposed to one that features an alpha-dog scorer like Jevon Carter. Luka Garza - C, Iowa, Jr.
Why he will win it: There isn't just one Luka from the Balkans putting up outrageous statistics. Luka Garza, the junior out of Bosnia and Herzegovina, burst onto the national scene with a 44-point performance in a loss to Michigan in early December. As the focal point of Iowa's booming offense, he scores primarily with his back to the basket with four guards spacing him. Garza excels at positioning himself down low; he swiftly evades his defender upon receiving an entrance pass, and finishes around the rim in a unique herky-jerky fashion. Averaging just over 4 offensive rebounds per game (and 10.8 total rebounds), Garza pours in points on put-backs as well. The Big Ten is basically the basketball equivalent to the WWE Royal Rumble, and the Hawkeyes' stud is leading the conference in a cornucopia of categories: field goals, two-point field goals, total points, points per game, offensive rebounds, PER, win shares, usage rate, and more. Why he won't win it: I think the Big Ten's depth will prevent the conference from fielding too many upper-echelon teams. Even if Iowa stays in the top 20 on all the major analytics sites, their schedule could easily give way to the double-digit loss eyesore. That would put a cap on their AP ranking, which I think matters to the people who vote on awards. Plus, Luka's game isn't exactly aesthetically pleasing. I'm not gonna knock the guy--he's clearly a beast; but he kind of lumbers up and down the court and he plays below the rim. It's pretty baffling how someone with his lack of explosiveness is so so so productive.
Ashton Hagans - G, Kentucky, So.
Why he will win it: Just about every season, Kentucky mirrors the Disney World's Tower of Terror: they ascend a little bit, then they drop, ascend again, drop a few more notches. It happens repeatedly as they work out the kinks with all their new pieces. But as the calendar inches closer and closer to March, Kentucky gradually rises to its peak, just like the Tower of Terror. And usually, they end up with the nice reward of 1 or a 2 seed in the Tourney (for the sake of the metaphor, let's ignore the Tower of Terror's mega-drop that concludes the ride). Kentucky again lives on this trajectory, and Hagans can take the Cats to their apex. He's as determined defensively as he was last season, giving headaches to opposing guards and creating one-man fast break opportunities. And offensively, he has improved his vision, his finishing, and his jump shot. The way he finds his teammates for easy looks pops out the most (7.3 assists per game). Why he won't win it: Nick Richards and Immanuel Quickley are both enjoying breakout seasons; their production eats into Hagans' points. Plus Tyrese Maxey also has the ability to score 30 or more on any given night. Lastly, there are too many good point guards for Hagans to really distance himself as the gold standard.
Malachi Flynn - G, San Diego State, R-Jr.
Why he will win it: Go ahead and take your "San Diego State ain't played nobody" arguments, douse them in gasoline, light a match, and don't look back. Because the Aztecs incinerated Creighton and Utah and notched 10 and 9-point wins over Iowa and Utah State, respectively. They currently sit at 4th in the NCAA's NET rankings, 6th in Bart Torvik's rankings, 9th in Haslametrics' rankings, and 12th in the grandaddy of them all, Ken Pomeroy's rankings. San Diego State has kept their record unblemished mainly with a defense that jumps passing lanes and runs their foes off the three-point line. Flynn plays a key role in this--his defensive rating is the 5th best in the Mountain West, and he's averaging 1.7 steals per contest--but it's really his offense that has established him as the most prominent "Flynn" since Walt Jr. won the hearts of folks everywhere with his warm smile. Flynn is an excellent three-point shooter off of motion, as he often gets looks out of dribble hand-offs; but he also knows how to pick his spots on the floor to bury pull-up jumpers. His offense is so well-rounded; with a tight handle and a frenetic burst, he shakes defenders to score at the rim. Why he won't win it: Even if San Diego State drops just *one* conference game, the naysayers will come out of hiding to disparage them (probably both on Twitter and in the national media). The improbability of an undefeated regular season plus west coast bias could tank Flynn's chances.
Myles Powell - G, Seton Hall, Sr.
Why he will win it: I'm not proficient in Seton Hall basketball history, but I would guess the Pirates entered this season with more expectations than any team in the past (their 1989 national runner-up team started the year unranked). And Powell has slogged through an ankle sprain and a severe concussion to get the Hall back on track after some early falters. His supporting cast thrives in a vicious, pressing defense (the unit as a whole ranks 10th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency), which gives him the liberty to focus on his most prolific skill: getting buckets. Everybody loves a good volume scorer--and to paraphrase Drake, "it could be winter or the summer, on the road, [Powell] does One Direction numbers, [he] don't miss." In four games since returning from concussion, Powell has paced Seton Hall with just over 22 points per game (all wins). Why he won't win it: His efficiency has dipped some from last season, both from beyond the arc and from the field overall. In addition, Powell hasn't gone off for 35+ in a marquee win yet. While he firebombed Michigan State with 37 points, Sparty came out victorious. The Hall has four big-time contests left on their regular-season schedule--two against Butler and two against Villanova. If Powell can transform any of those into a signature game, he moves from the dark horse list to a favorite.
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June 2021
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