Follow me on Twitter!
Click here for part one On to part two! Teams 25 through 21: 25. Arkansas Deep Dive: Last year, the Muss Bus rolled into Fayetteville puffin’ exhaust and slangin’ gravel. The shirtless driver opened up the door and let out a raucous “WOO PIG SOOEY!” Initially, I was skeptical. I stayed put at the bus stop and decided to let it pass. "Maybe tomorrow," I thought. "Surely this guy isn’t doing anything at Arkansas that Mike Anderson couldn’t have done." Well, I was wrong. Eric Musselman exceeded expectations in his first season at Arkansas; and then he followed it up by hauling in an incredible recruiting class. So now? I’m ready to get my bus pass. Musselman first proved his coaching merit during his days in out west in Reno. Prior to his arrival at the University of Nevada, the Wolf Pack went under .500 for three straight seasons (12-19, 15-17, 9-22, respectively). Within two years, the head coach constructed a mid-major power, rattling off three straight tournament appearances, with an unforgettable Elite 8 berth in 2018. Before the COVID outbreak, Arkansas sat at 20 wins and had the talent to notch a few SEC Tourney wins to earn an invitation to the Big Dance. This year, they shouldn’t even need a strong conference tournament showing to get a bid. Most of the Razorbacks’ advantages can be found on the perimeter. The guard quartet of Desi Sills, KK Robinson, Jalen Tate, and Moses Moody all bring different skillsets and offer lineup flexibility. Sills is the lone member out of that group who played for the 2019-20 Hogs. Down the stretch of last season, the junior burgeoned into a consummate 3-and-D guard. He moves intelligently without the ball, finding gaps in the defense to get open from deep. Although he started the year in an ugly shooting slump, he sank 45% of his three-point attempts in the months of February and March. On the defensive end, Sills plays much bigger than his listed 6’1” frame--not only can he lock up guards, but in spurts of conference play, he held his own guarding stretch-ish bigs like LSU’s Trendon Watford and Auburn’s Anfernee McLemore. In addition to his on-court skills, he serves as a presence of continuity, as Musselman seeks to integrate a bundle of new pieces. The Northern Kentucky transfer Tate can play on or off-ball and stuffed the stat sheet last season as a high usage player. During his time in the Horizon League, he accumulated a list of awards longer than a Walgreens receipt, most notably on the defensive end. Tate’s long arms and precise anticipation empower him to pick pockets, as he ranked in the Horizon's top 5 in steal rate throughout his career. Regarding his offensive game, word out of Fayetteville speculates that Musselman will convert him into a full-time point guard. The head coach has a history of turning big guards into primary facilitators (see: Caleb Martin from 2017-19); but I’m bearish on Tate in this role. Yes, Northern Kentucky has emerged as one of the top low-major programs in the country...but they’re still a low major. Moving up to the deep SEC will pose a significant challenge. Not to mention, his three-point shot is butt ugly (27% from three for his career, 18% last season). Don't get me wrong, I think Tate will be a helpful role player for the Razorbacks; but part of my skepticism around his lead guard prospects stems from my love for Robinson. I speculated on Robinson’s potential impact back in April, which you can read about here. To summarize, he’s wildly speedy in the open court, can nail pull-up jumpers as well as curl off screens, and he relentlessly pressures the opposing ballhandler. He fits perfectly in Musselman’s 4-out system that allows multiple guys to create off the bounce. I just hope Musselman lets KK loose early in the season. Lastly, the hometown product Moses Moody has the chops to take over as a suitable Isaiah Joe replacement. The freshman fits the mold of the modern NBA wing who can handle, shoot, and play multiple positions; his game bears a resemblance to former Villanova superstar Mikal Bridges. And he may have the best three-point jumper in the entire freshman class.
With Robinson, Sills, and Tate all capable of driving into the teeth of the defense and kicking the ball out, corner threes will fall into Moses’ lap like manna from heaven. Since he played for the loaded Montverde Academy in high school, Moody never had to orchestrate the offense. But I trust that Musselman can develop him as an on-ball player if he so pleases; the coach prioritized deploying Joe in a lot of ball screen actions last season, so he may do the same for Moody. In the frontcourt, Musselman will turn to three more transfers: Justin Smith from Indiana, Vance Jackson from New Mexico, and Connor Vanover from California. Smith is a high-flyer who was miscast as a small forward for the Hoosiers. Although he posted solid stats throughout his IU career, Muss will better utilize him by playing him less on the perimeter and optimizing his ability to run the floor in transition. Jackson and his watermelon-sized deltoids provide enough size to man either the “4” or the “5” spots; however, at New Mexico, he mostly got his buckets on the dribble-drive and by popping out to the three-point line (just 21% of his field-goal attempts came at the rim, compared to 60% of his attempts coming from behind the arc, per hoop-math). Vanover, a sit-out transfer from Cal Berkley, stands at an imposing 7'3" and is the lone traditional big on the roster. But I’m not gonna even act like I’ve watched Cal basketball in the last five years--per a quick Google search, he appears to be a pasty dude with a man bun who finished his freshman year at Berkley (2018-19) with decent block and rebounding rates. He also hit 27 threes that season--it’s a shame that the seven people who subscribe to the Pac-12 Network were the only ones to witness them. Up and down Arkansas’ roster, you will find a little bit of everything--and I’m not just talking about the variety of basketball strengths that each player brings to the table. You see under-recruited guys, five-star freshmen, sit-out transfers, grad-transfers, transfers on their third school, and probably a JuCo guy thrown on the bench that I’m missing. Musselman, a proponent of short rotations, could end up dealing with some combination of option paralysis and disgruntled players. It will be most interesting to see how he handles Robinson and Moody, as most of his success has derived from being the Transfer Whisperer. But dream with me for a second. Let’s take a little stroll for old time’s sake and trust that Musselman will make the most of this stacked squad. TLDR: Projected starters: G - KK Robinson (Fr.), G - Desi Sills (Jr.), G - Moses Moody (Fr.), F - Justin Smith (Sr.), F - Vance Jackson (RSr.) Projected bench: G - Vance Jackson (RSr.), C - Connor Vanover (RSo.), F - Jaylin Williams (Fr.), G - JD Notae (RJr.) Strengths: depth Weaknesses: too much depth Best player: Moody Breakout player: Robinson 24. Rutgers Deep Dive: More like “I’m Sorry, What?gers.” But yes, after decades of embarrassment and irrelevance, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights crack the prestigious Amateur Hour Hoops Top 25. Last season, Rutgers basically guaranteed themselves a bid to the Big Dance for the first time since *checks notes*...1991. NINETEEN NINETY-ONE. I wasn’t even born yet! My mom was probably still trying to convince my dad to have a second child! Even though COVID robbed the Scarlet Knights of ending their barren tournament drought, there is good news for the New Jersey faithful: head coach Steve Pikiell brings back four starters from a team that won 20 games and finished 28th on KenPom a year ago. The time is now. *When* the Tournament happens this season, they should be firmly on the right side of the bubble. Rutgers’ identity revolves around their defense--I find it tough to spot a weakness on that side of the ball. They can switch on ball screens, and they can ice them. They don’t take unnecessary risks with their pressure, but they find a way to force a ton of turnovers. Teams find it especially hard to score on them in the paint (13th best 2-point field goal defense in the country), but they still execute rotations with precision--they almost always have someone on the perimeter to contest an open shooter. Pikiell has assembled the perfect personnel for his defensive scheme to flourish: his roster consists of guys who are either tall or wide, (or both tall and wide) who functionally optimize their size and athleticism. A surplus of versatile wings make that aforementioned switchy-ness possible--the 6’4” Montez Mathis and the 6’7” headband bros Caleb McConnell and Paul Mulcahy can all defend multiple positions on the perimeter. In guards Geo Baker (6’4”) and Jacob Young (6’2”, but broad as a “wide load” trailer on the highway), the Knights possess a couple of guys who can disrupt ballhandlers from getting into the flow of the offense. Young is surprisingly stealthy for a big guard; his steals quickly morph into instant offense. But it’s the dogged style of frontcourt studs Myles Johnson and Ron Harper Jr. that enables the athletes on the wing to inflict terror on their foes. A shot-blocking behemoth, Johnson envelops his challengers with his 6’10” 255+ pound frame (he definitely qualifies as a “tall and wide” guy). After swatting 1.5 shots per game and ranking third in the conference in defensive rating last season, he’ll shoulder even more of the load as the only battle-tested rim protector on the roster. Harper, a 6’6” 240-pound forward, willingly guards anybody. The junior possesses a blend of speed and power that allows him to stick with both quick-twitch wings and post players who step to him. Also, you just don’t want to mess with dudes named “Ron.” Though the defense could be the very best in the Big Ten, the offense must improve by leaps and bounds if Rutgers wants to contend for a top-four finish in the conference. Three-point shooting and free-throw shooting stick out as crippling weaknesses. Last year, the Scarlet Knights attempted the second-fewest three-pointers in the Big Ten--and for good reason. They made just 30.8% of their long-range shots, 296th nationally. Instead, the offense centered on attacking the basket on dribble-drives; but their free-throw woes cramped their efficiency in a playing style that prioritizes getting to the line. A few years back, I coached a church league team of fifth-graders, and this league had a very stupid rule that mandated that every player shoot a free throw at halftime. If the kid made the free throw, his team got a point. And my team happened to be full of horrible free throw shooters (okay, it’s fair to blame some of that on the coaching). But I remember watching these kids brick and airball free throws with a sense of dread and doom, as the other team would randomly have three or four kids sink their freebies. Those same feelings of consternation surface when I see a Rutgers player saunter to the line. They shot 64% from FT as a team, finishing second to last in the Big Ten. Not to keep piling on, but for all of his giftedness as a defender, Myles Johnson shot 36.3% on his free throws. You just can’t have a starter miss ‘em that frequently. Still, Rutgers boasts a handful of guys who have proven that they can score against the heavyweights of the conference. Baker appears extra jittery with his handle, and he displays solid explosiveness for a two-footed leaper (12 for 12 on dunks last season). Down the stretch of Big Ten play, he also pinpointed some gorgeous live-dribble passes. Mathis, Young, and the Headband Bros all have some ability to create off the dribble. But I actually think that Headband Bro #2 (Mulcahy) could see the biggest boost in production. It’s possible that he increases from 3.7 points per game to 9-11ish; he showed off nice touch around the basket and atypical ballhandling for a 6’6” player. Plus, he dished out 61 assists to just 28 turnovers, so that will earn him more trust and playing time. In addition, Harper Jr.’s versatility provides open looks for himself and for his teammates. The junior sets skull-rattling back screens that allow cutters to run unimpeded, but he also pops out to sink corner threes (his 34.9 percentage doesn’t look all that pretty until you watch his teammates). Finally, his ferocious offensive rebounding gifts his team with crucial extra possessions in close games (Rutgers played in many of those last season). And lastly, for my northeastern compatriots, get ready: if we can get *any* fans into arenas, the RAC will once again be the best party New Jersey has seen since DJ Pauly D was spinning phat beats. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Geo Baker (Sr.), G - Montez Mathis (Jr.), F - Paul Mulcahy (So.), F - Ron Harper Jr. (Jr.), C - Myles Johnson (RJr.) Projected bench: G - Jacob Young (RSr.), F - Caleb McConnell (Jr.), F - Cliff Omoruyi (Fr.) Strengths: defense, physicality, rebounding Weaknesses: shooting, free throws, being Rutgers Best player: Harper Breakout player: Mulcahy 23. Indiana Deep Dive: Archie Miller must love the pursuit of former glory. The head coach spent his playing days at North Carolina State University--an institution currently mired in a three-decade-long quest to recapture the magic of 1983. Now he enters his fourth year coaching at another school that hasn’t won anything since the ‘80s. Indiana represents the more successful foil to NC State...and unfortunately for Arch, both fan bases are equally as impatient with their coaches. If he can’t succeed this year, the candy-striped hourglass may run out. A Tournament birth is the bare minimum expectation. The Hoosiers won 20 games a season ago and return 67.8% of those minutes, per Bart Torvik. They also usher in the nation’s 16th-best recruiting class (per 247Sports). The headliner of that class simultaneously brings excitement to the fans and fills a gigantic hole on the roster. Five-star Khristian Lander, a late reclassification from 2021 to 2020, will aim to bring a dependability to the lead guard slot that the Hoosiers have ached for since Yogi Ferrell's graduation. Lander wriggles past defenders with elite change-of-direction speed. That agility combined with a powerful first step gets him into the lane, where he can finish at the rim with either hand. Plus, he can drain the long ball off of hand-offs/off the catch, and he is gaining comfort at shooting pull-up jumpers. Last season, Indiana ranked 38th nationally in initial field goal attempts in transition, per hoop-math.com. However, their effective field goal percentage in transition ranked just 199th. With Lander bursting through the open court, expect that number to spike. The frosh offers an immediate scoring upgrade over junior Rob Phinisee. But Miller trusts that the two can play together: “Once Khristian joined the class, it was inevitable. We were going to have to play Rob, Khristian, and Al (Durham) together...I don’t know necessarily if that combo works the best or the most, but it’s going to give our perimeter guys way more opportunities to go out there and play a three-headed monster...My hope would be our skill level goes up, our turnovers go down, our shooting percentages go up, and our style is more uptempo.” Phinisee has posted pretty putrid numbers through his first two years (career averages of 7 points per game and 36.7% from the field). But perhaps playing next to a primary ballhandler will alleviate some pressure and allow him to shine as a secondary facilitator (he did rank 7th in the conference in assist rate a year ago). A last thought regarding the backcourt: due to Lander’s age (17), slender frame, and lack of experience, there is no guarantee that he reaches stardom this year. The good folks at Three Man Weave noted the struggles of other re-class lead guards like Derryck Thornton and Ashton Hagans in their Indiana preview. Even Kira Lewis, a re-class success story, turned in an up and down freshman year. Still, if Lander can average around 14 points per game and bury 50 triples or so, Indiana’s will be able to use their offense to close out games. On the wing, Miller benefits from a surplus of options. The senior Al Durham supplied the most consistent three-point shooting to the Hoosiers last year, converting 36 makes at a 38% clip. In addition, he’s strong around the bucket and can read defensive rotations to find the open man in the halfcourt. Sophomore Armaan Franklin, redshirt sophomore Jerome Hunter, and freshman Jordan Geronimo will all compete for big minutes on the perimeter. Franklin and Hunter both shot the ball well down the stretch of last season, with the latter displaying the most upside. As a strong 6’7” athlete, Hunter can man either forward spot, providing small-ball versatility. From the end of January through the rest of the season, he shot 40% from deep (on 13 makes). Lastly, the 6’6” Geronimo will also hope to improve IU’s mediocre shooting. With a wide stance and a high release, the freshman exhibited a deadeye stroke on catch and shoot threes at the high school level. But the heart of the Hoosiers resides in the frontcourt. Sophomore Trayce Jackson-Davis is ready to make his presence known to the nation. As a fellow “Davis,” I always cheer for my namesakes (it’s just uncommon enough of a name for this to make sense), and TJD puts on for the Davis brand. A 6’9” bruiser with a wide frame, Jackson-Davis looks like the type of dude who has to enter through a door sideways. Part of his game looks old school, as he outworks and out-positions his defender on the block to score in the post. But he is also super light on his feet and can throw down a thunderous dunk rolling to the hoop.
Defensively, he is a forceful shot blocker and rebounder. If he matures in awareness, he could grow into the conference’s best interior defender. The most pressing challenge for Archie will be who he pairs with TJD. He can call upon redshirt-senior Joey Brunk who started all but one game for Indiana last season. I wrote a bit about him back in February. He’s a back-to-the-basket center, whose game I described as “No flash. No gimmicks. Just focus, fundamentals, and footwork.” I stand by that assessment. Miller could also lean on the bouncy junior Race Thompson, who plays more of a face-up style. Or, as earlier stated, he could go small with Hunter at the “4” to give Jackson-Davis more space to dominate. Regardless of the starting lineup, IU will continue to control games with their defense. Smart help defenders from the wing make it difficult for teams to score in the paint. For example, against pick and roll, a big will hedge, and the helper always seems to know when to tag and erase the open look. Lastly, Indiana excels at cleaning the glass and thwarting their opponent from gaining additional opportunities; they boasted the best defensive rebounding rate in the Big Ten last season. Archie Miller will surely feel the intense glare of eyeballs across the state of Indiana, as he starts a make-or-break season. A roster stocked with both experience and young talent will make up his best team in Bloomington thus far. The defense will remain stout. But can the Hoosiers generate enough offense from the perimeter and guard spots to eventually ascend into the upper half of the Top 25? Miller will need to bring his A-game to figure out the best lineup strategies to make it all gel. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Khristian Lander (Fr.), G - Rob Phinisee (Jr.), G - Al Durham (Sr.), F - Trayce Jackson-Davis (So.), C - Joey Brunk (RSr.) Projected bench: F - Jerome Hunter (RSo.), G - Armaan Franklin (So.), G - Jordan Geronimo (Fr.), F - Race Thompson (Jr.) Strengths: interior defense, frontcourt depth Weaknesses: guard play, shooting Best player: Jackson-Davis Breakout player: Lander 22. Ohio State Deep Dive: This past fall, the tortured Ohio State fan base finally caught a couple breaks. The football team massacred their Big Ten foes, going undefeated in the conference with a +33 margin of victory; and the basketball team rose to the #2 ranking in the AP poll, notching enormous wins over Villanova, Kentucky, and on the road at North Carolina. Well, you probably know what happened next. The football team blew a 16-0 lead against Clemson in the College Football Playoffs, the incomplete pass heard round the world erased any momentum the Buckeyes tried to regain, and they missed out on a chance to challenge LSU for a title. Meanwhile, the basketball team lost six of seven from late December through January, the North Carolina win...uhhhh...lost a bit of its luster, former five-star recruit DJ Carton left the program, and Ohio State never got close to the top 5 again. However, after reeling for much of 2020, Chris Holtmann’s squad scrapped together some encouraging performances near the end of the season (Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan, Illinois), and they finished the year firmly in the field for the hypothetical Tournament. Even though no player averaged more than 14 points per game, the Buckeyes boasted a top 15 offense per the holy trinity of analytics (KenPom, Bart Torvik, and Haslametrics). Holtmann has always masterfully utilized screens in his scheme, going back to his days at Butler. Ohio State, in particular, ran a lot of actions centered around flares and pindowns--sometimes for the screener to pop out to the perimeter, sometimes to get a shooter open, and sometimes to create a lane for a guard/wing to drive downhill. Junior guard Duane Washington (in the gif above) often delivers out of these sets. At 6’3” 190 pounds, he has the strength to get to the rack, but he appears most comfortable launching a long ball while curling off of a screen. As a unit, Ohio State shot three-pointers the best out of any team in the Big Ten, making 37.3% of their attempts. Washington heavily factored into this with his 39% clip. Their shooting percentage could maintain that elite level with the addition of Harvard grad-transfer Seth Towns. One of the best transfers available this offseason, Towns is a 6’7” forward with handles. He unfurls a beautiful trey-ball that soars over the flailing arms of defenders. His shooting should translate to the Big Ten immediately; though, one concern that could plague Towns is his inability to finish at the basket. Despite making 44% of his three-point attempts, the Columbus-native shot just 41% overall from the field. Per hoop-math.com, he took 26% of his shots at the rim, making a subpar 50% of them. The jump up from the Ivy League to the Big Ten could relegate him to more of a shooting specialist role as opposed to a primary wing scorer. Nonetheless, between Washington, Towns, California transfer Justice Sueing, and incumbent point guard CJ Walker, Ohio State should manufacture enough perimeter scoring. But within their frontcourt lies a beast ready to tear off his collar: sophomore EJ Liddell. Liddell came to Columbus with some notoriety as a top-50 prospect in the class of 2020. Although his height (6’6”) would garner him an “undersized” label, his strength/width combo quickly dismantles that notion. He channels his strength into a physical style of play that draws foul upon foul--he led the Buckeyes in free throw rate last season. In the post, Liddell already has a signature move: he’ll catch the ball on the right block, take two dribbles to the left, and hit a little jumper. It’s money. His freshman season numbers aren’t all that eye-popping at 6.7 points and 3.8 rebounds. However, in all but one game in which he logged more than 20 minutes (5 games), he scored 9 or more points, notching 17 points on two different occasions. With the departure of Kaleb Wesson, Liddell won’t lack opportunity. He only hit five three-pointers last year, but that number should increase; his development in sinking pick-and-pop threes will drastically impact Ohio State’s contention for a Big Ten title. Senior big man Kyle Young, an energy guy who gleefully does all the dirty work, rounds out the starting lineup. His commitment to the grind will allow the scorers to shine. Still, Ohio State’s relative lack of depth (who is their backup point guard??) scares me a bit. Also, they lost a guy who could guard the 1 through 5 in Andre Wesson. Their defense should still be a top 30 unit that forces teams into long possessions and shuts down the lane, but I doubt they crack the top 10 in the efficiency metrics. They still have the pieces to be a second-weekend team. But Holtmann must manufacture some standard of consistency. TLDR: Projected starters: G - CJ Walker (RSr.), G - Duane Washington (Jr.), F Seth Towns (RSr.), F - EJ Liddell (So.), F - Kyle Yong (Sr.) Projected bench: G/F - Justice Sueing (Sr.), F - Musa Jallow (RJr.), G - Abel Porter (RSr.), G - Justin Ahrens (Jr.) Strengths: three-point shooting, versatile wings, interior defense Weaknesses: no go-to scorer, guard depth Best player: Liddell Breakout player: Liddell 21. Louisville Deep Dive: This year’s Louisville Cardinals are the most boom or bust team in my Top 25. Despite Chris Mack’s sterling record of consistency, the Cards’s floor could be in the ACC basement. This may surprise you, as, on paper, they appear to have a starting five that will be among the best in the ACC. But a closer look reveals that they may be overly reliant on a lead guard for offense (David Johnson), may ask too much of two grad-transfers facing an uptick in competition level (Carlik Jones and Charles Minlend), will bank on a sizable leap from a sophomore wing (Samuell Williamson), and will turn to one solid big man for major minutes without much depth behind him (Malik Williams). My gosh, could Louisville be this year’s version of the 2020 North Carolina Tar Heels? Go back and read that last sentence, but replace “David Johnson” with “Cole Anthony,” “Carlik Jones and Charles Minlend” with “Christian Keeling and Justin Pierce,” “Samuell Williamson” with “Leaky Black,” and “Malik Williams” with “Garrison Brooks.” Based on my ranking of them, you're right to assume that I view Louisville as more “boom” than "bust," but I thought it necessary to point out that a few false steps could usher in Papa John’s infamous day of reckoning that he prophesied against his alma mater. Anyway, let’s focus on the good instead of the psycho sweaty pizza man. Louisville’s defense will once again place in the upper half of the ACC, although I don’t foresee the unit posting top-30 efficiency numbers in KenPom’s adjDE, as they have the last two seasons. However, Mack will still craft a variety of defensive schemes and strategies with which to combat his opponent--they’ll range from “no middle” ball-screen icing, strict man-to-man defense, and even a splash of zone. But his signature recipe revolves around a pack-line-type style that strong-arms offenses into both long possessions and contested 2-point attempts (the Cards forced the third-most long 2s in the ACC last season, 26th most nationally, per hoop-math). Opposing ballhandlers will first have to deal with the earlier-mentioned David Johnson when trying to score on L’ville. While coming off the pine last season, Johnson's defense distinguished him from most freshmen guards. He has fluid hips and fast feet to cut off angles and contain penetration; moreover, his arms are so long that he doesn’t have to compensate by reaching and hoping to get away with a foul. I can already hear Jay Bilas lobbying for Johnson to receive his due as one of the conference’s best defenders come springtime. In regards to the rest of the starters, Williamson possesses both the length and agility to blossom into a plus defender against both “3”s and “4”s; and Williams has established himself as an overpowering presence in the paint--more so with his strength and his defensive positioning than with his shot-blocking. But as the only other experienced returners, Mack will ask much out of both of them on the defensive end, especially since neither Jones nor Minlend project as game-changers on that side of the ball. However, the two transfers will aspire to make up for their deficiencies with their offense, delivering a scoring punch from the perimeter. Mack has historically coached top-20 level offenses, but he must replace a load of output this year, most notably in three-point shooting. The Cards shot 37.6% from 3 as a team last season, good for the 15th best percentage in the country. However, they lost two snipers in Jordan Nwora and Ryan McMahon, along with two more serviceable marksmen in Darius Perry and Dwayne Sutton. Carlik Jones, who’s moving westward from Radford, could offer some assistance. However, last year was the first good shooting season of his career (his form isn’t particularly good as his knees invert as he loads up to release his shot). Thus, I'm giving him a little bit of "see it to believe it" treatment. But at the very least, his excellent court vision should enable him to serve as a secondary playmaker next to Johnson. Even though his counting stats weren’t as gaudy as Jones’s were at their former schools, I’m more sold on Charles Minlend’s ability to develop into a high-level ACC starter. The stout guard starred for a decent San Francisco team--perhaps the greatest barometer of their success can be found in a four-point loss to conference bellwether Gonzaga. Hey, that’s about all you can ask for from a West Coast Conference team! But Minlend operates best on the fast break, where he can burst free for a dunk--he’ll help maintain the high efficiency in the Cards’ transition offense. In the halfcourt, he’s a slasher who finishes strong through contact, and he also moves well without the ball. He’s a safe bet to average around 10 points and 4 boards in a complementary role. The burden of filling Nwora’s role falls upon the former McDonald’s All-American Williamson. The sophomore didn’t earn as much playing time as he or L’ville fans hoped, but that will change this season. At 6'7" , you might not expect Williamson to be especially elusive; however, when he starts charging downhill, he can slip around defenders effortlessly. Here, he reads Florida State’s Trent Forrest on his right hip and takes advantage by accelerating left; from there, he evades the ‘Noles massive rim deterrents and deftly finishes with his right: His ability to get to the cup without even needing a crafty bounce off the glass impresses. Finally, we’ll bookend it all with praise for David Johnson. His long strides propel him to the basket, where length doesn’t really faze him. As he continues to gain strength in both his upper and lower body, his prowess around the hoop will become an indispensable advantage. In addition, he makes pristine off-ball cuts (backdoor, on give-and-gos) when another Louisville player has the rock--his toasting of Duke’s Tre Jones immediately comes to mind as an example. And lastly, his passing progressed throughout conference play. Live-dribble one handed dimes may become more commonplace for him this year. Louisville has some interesting pieces that, if they mesh well, could conceivably forge into a Final Four contender. But all of things that could go wrong--transfers not living up to expectations, a serious lack of proven depth, the loss of the majority of their shooting--have me hesitant to rank them higher than the 20s. Now, Chris Mack is an excellent coach with a track record of developing unheralded players; so this roster turnover may not deter him too much. But stranger things have happened. TLDR: Projected starters: G - David Johnson (So.), G - Carlik Jones (RSr.), G - Charles Minlend (RSr.), G/F - Samuell Williamson (So.), F/C - Malik Williams (Sr.) Projected bench: G - Josh Nickelberry (So.), F - Quinn Slazinski (So.), C - Aidan Igiehon (Fr.), G - D'Andre Davis (Fr.) Strengths: They kind of have a "jack of all trades, master of none" feel to me. They'll be solid at just about everything but elite at just about nothing Weaknesses: Go back and read that "projected bench"...have you heard of any of those players? Didn't think so. Best player: Johnson Breakout player: Williamson
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorRiley Davis Archives
June 2021
Categories |
Photo used under Creative Commons from MarsInOrbit