Welcome back for my fourth installment of Risers and Fallers, a bi-weekly check-in that recognizes some teams on the ascent and scrutinizes some teams in trouble. This week, we'll examine some bellwethers in the Big 12 and the Big Ten, a familiar mid-major, and some Final Four hopefuls struggling through the doldrums of conference play.
**these blurbs were written prior to the start of games the week of February 15th** **here is my Top 25 for this week for reference** RISERS: Oklahoma State Week 9 ranking: 31; Current ranking: 20 While the Oklahoma Sooners controlled the headlines over the last few weeks, I’m more enamored with their in-state counterparts. Mike Boynton has seemingly turned a corner, as his Cowboys boast a top-20 defense for the first time in his coaching career. Oklahoma State squashes teams with their length, most notably on the perimeter. Boynton deploys a gang of gritty guards who contest every shot and get their hands on every loose ball. In particular, sophomore Bryce Williams shines as a defensive star. Per my observations, the Ole Miss transfer hasn’t gotten nearly the amount of love he deserves. He erases opposing lead guards, and he has logged 18 blocks in 18 games--at 6’2”! Below, he packs Texas' 6'9" forward (and probable first-round pick) Greg Brown: And that’s not even mentioning junior Isaac Likekele and freshman phenom Cade Cunningham--two titans who can guard 1 through 5, giving their coach a couple more chess pieces whether he runs zone, man-to-man, or some sort of hybrid. Speaking of Cunningham, I have seen some NBA folks on the ol’ Twitter dot com bemoan his supporting cast. Yes, it’s true that Cade lacks the shooters around him that would better showcase his skillset--but let’s be real, how many college teams have optimal spacing? Like five maybe? This Oklahoma State team plays super hard, and every off-the-court story about them seems to indicate they have an ideal locker room. Ohio State Week 9 ranking: 16; Current ranking: 4 Speaking of teams with good spacing, the Buckeyes crack that selective list. Somehow, Ohio State lost their best player (Kaleb Wesson) from a season ago and still increased their efficiency in just about every offensive metric. The key to their production? A coach in Chris Holtmann who doesn’t limit his players to a system--he identifies their strengths then maximizes them. For example, the coach has cracked the potential of 6’7” wing Justice Sueing. By utilizing him as a ballhandler in pick-and-roll, Holtmann unleashes his best skill: driving downhill and attacking the basket. The Cal transfer has converted a sterling 70% of his shots at the rim so far (per hoop-math.com). Equally as impressive is Sueing's basketball IQ--he moves so intelligently without the ball. The play below shows this off; Sueing notices the miscommunication between Luka Garza, Joe Wieskamp, and Jordan Bohannon (imagine that), then takes advantage. His quick cut forces Bohannon to leave his man (Meechie Johnson) who then drains a three. Outside of Sueing, Holtmann draws up perfect sets to get his shooters open. Juniors Duane Washington and Justin Ahrens scorch the nylon curling off of pindowns and out of dribble-handoffs. Below, Ahrens puts a hapless Michigan State team in the torture chamber. The Spartans' Josh Langford probably had an inkling Ahrens would shoot it--but if you allow him to catch the ball without getting a hand up, it's too late. Since January, Ohio State is knocking down 38.2% of their three-point attempts, good for 47th in the nation (per Bart Torvik)...and from watching the Buckeyes, I don't think that's flukey. Loyola Chicago Week 9 ranking: sub-50; Current ranking: 22 Snack on a Tide Pod, belt out your favorite track from A Star is Born, and share a LeBron-JR Smith meme because we’re taking it back to 2018 with some praise for the #JeanTeam. Big man Cameron Krutwig, an integral piece of that Ramblers’ Final Four squad, now takes center stage as the fulcrum of the offense. The senior whips all over the court--screening and rolling, beating his man for positioning, and snaring offensive rebounds. For a dude who looks like he lives on chili dogs and deep dish, Krutwig plays surprisingly light on his feet. Throughout the season, he has displayed some of the best footwork out of any post player in the country. Finally, his passing remains a key factor in the Ramblers’ offense. Krutwig is one of 6 players in the country who stands at 6’9” or taller with an assist rate of 25+% (per Bart Torvik). FALLERS: Wisconsin: Week 9 ranking: 9; Current ranking: 21 The Badgers’ offense has dried out into a barren wasteland over the past month. Through their first twelve games, Wisconsin ranked 10th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency. Their ranking in that same metric over their last ten? 121st. They’ve only averaged 1+ points per possession twice during that stretch. Too often, Wisconsin falls into ruts where they look as averse to scoring as Nigel Hayes is to positive recruiting. Their hoop-math page reveals the breadth of their ineptitude at getting to the rim--neither Brad Davison or D’Mitrik Trice can consistently beat their man off the dribble, and Nate Reuvers and Micah Potter both play more comfortably facing up. But frigid three-point shooting versus top-flight competition has both exposed and amplified these flaws. Tennessee: Week 9 ranking: 6; Current ranking: 19 Like the Badgers, putrid offense lands the Vols in the dreaded “Fallers” category. When Jaden Springer isn’t going off for 25+ points, Tennessee lacks an identity on that side of the ball. Santiago Vescovi’s season has been more up-and-down than the Drop-Line at Dollywood. John Fulkerson’s effective field goal percentage and free throw rate have both dropped significantly from a season ago. As much as I love Yves Pons, he still can only score consistently on open mid-rangers. It’s pretty common for the Vols to play hot potato on the perimeter before forcing up an ill-advised shot (especially on the road--see the monstrosity at Ole Miss on February 2nd). I still think their combination of defense and NBA-level talent could springboard Tennessee into the Final Four come March, but this is the time of year where the pieces must start meshing.
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Welcome back for my third installment of Risers and Fallers, a bi-weekly check-in that recognizes some teams on the ascent and scrutinizes some teams in trouble. Except for this week...no team will be scrutinized. That’s right--we’re abiding by the “posi vibes only” mantra and just highlighting the Risers. Several intriguing teams are thriving right now, and I couldn’t narrow them down...so I just wrote about all of them.
**these blurbs were written prior to the start of games the week of January 18th** **here is my Top 25 for the week, for reference** RISERS: Alabama: Week 7 ranking: 38; Current ranking: 13 Although Nate Oats’s “shoot only threes and layups” offense faltered in Maui, it has since propelled Bama to the top of the SEC standings--and they aren’t notching empty calory wins, either. The Tide won convincingly in Knoxville, edged their rival Auburn on the road in Sharife Cooper’s debut, crushed Florida into a fine powder, sent Kentucky back into a free fall, and bludgeoned Arkansas into oblivion. With a battalion of dynamic guards, Oats and Alabama can punish opponents with a different option every night. Against Auburn, it was Josh Primo; against Kentucky, it was John Petty; against Arkansas, it was Jaden Shackelford. Anyone out of this group can heat up and take over games. And they have the perfect piece that holds them all together--guard/forward/whatever he wants to play Herb Jones. Jones logs most of his minutes at the “1,” where he operates best out of ball screens. The 6’8” senior excels at driving and kicking, but he can also take his man off the dribble. Few perimeter defenders can contain his combination of length and athleticism. But Jones’s provides equally as impactful plays on the other end; he puts opposing wings in straitjackets and can erase open shot attempts at a moment’s notice: Florida State: Week 7 ranking: 25; Current ranking: 17 Those of you who read my preseason deep dives know how highly I value the freshmen-to-sophomore leap; generally, I think a player improves the most between year one and year two, and his progression may tapers off once he hits his junior and senior season. Well, Florida State currently defies that notion, as they enjoy breakouts from two upperclassmen. Senior guard MJ Walker has earned a feature role by upping his scoring efficiency across the board. Once a reckless chucker, the former McDonald’s All-American now shoots confidently and opportunistaclly, as evidenced by his percentages (46, 45.6, 92% splits). In the frontcourt, redshirt-junior RaiQuan Gray has materialized into a versatile playmaker who creates mismatches with his 6’8”, 260-pound frame. Throughout his first two seasons in Tallahassee, he flashed a sublime feel for the game and dished out some breathtaking passes. But that’s the thing--they were only flashes. However, that has changed this year, as he has developed consistency while playing bigger minutes. Of all big men/stretch 4s in the ACC, only two boast a higher assist rate, per Bart Torvik (Clemson’s Aamir Simms and Georgia Tech’s Jordan Usher, oddly enough). Down the stretch versus North Carolina last weekend, Leonard Hamilton deployed Gray as a ballhandler in pick-and-roll with 7’1” sophomore Balša Koprivica, and it was virtually unguardable. I know Virginia just obliterated Clemson and their top-ranked defense, but I'm buying all the Florida State stock to burst forth as the best team in the ACC. USC: Week 7 ranking: sub-40; Current ranking: 25 I for one am not ready to live in a world where Andy Enfield is a good coach, but the Trojans have performed admirably in an unexpectedly enthralling Pac-12. Freshman big man Evan Mobley has been their catalyst, and I paid some homage to him in a recent Twitter thread. But I want to focus this blurb on the rest of their frontcourt. In 6’10” sophomore Isaiah Mobley (Evan’s older brother) and 6’8” junior Drew Peterson, Southern Cal has two imposing dudes with the coordination to attack from the perimeter and the IQ to facilitate for their teammates. This bucket off of a dribble-handoff in a win at Arizona perfectly encapsulates their skillsets: Peterson, in particular, has showcased proficiency in both pick-and-roll decision making and live-dribble passing: The Rice transfer’s court vision allows Enfield to run him at the point, thus maximizing his squad’s towering height advantage (2nd nationally in height per KenPom). UCLA: Week 7 ranking: 34; Current ranking: 27 As of this week, a Mick Cronin-coached team has the 8th best offense in the country, per KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric (adjOE). Think back to his uuuuuugly Cincinnati squads, and let that sink in. Making matters more stunning, his group has reached these heights without preseason Pac-12 Player of the Year Chris Smith, who tore his ACL at the beginning of January. Like the best Cronin teams, the Bruins find success by controlling the offensive glass. Redshirt-junior Cody Riley has been a fiend on the boards, currently ranking top 3 in the Pac-12 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. Surprisingly, 6’6” junior Jules Bernard checks in at 14th in the conference in offensive rebounding rate--an impressive feat for a perimeter player. But extra possessions are secondary to the growth of redshirt-sophomore point guard Tyger Campbell. After establishing himself as one of the nation’s best facilitators last season, he has rounded out his offensive game. Check the clip below to see how he has perfected his signature herky-jerky floater: And he’s still dropping those ridiculous dimes. Boise State: Week 3 ranking: sub-40; Current ranking: 38 We’ll close this edition with a little mid-major love. I caught Boise State’s double-header versus Wyoming last week, and I realized within five minutes that they’re insanely fun to watch. The Broncos feature so many guys who can handle the ball and create their own offense. The 6’9” Derrick Alston possesses guard skills and scores over his foes at will. Arizona castoff Devonaire Doutrive has quickly emerged as a capable slasher and knockdown shooter, after making his Boise State debut earlier this month. Lastly, point guard RayJ Dennis sets the table for his teammates but also scores effectively out of iso--he’s made 31 of his 36 attempts at the rim, per hoop-math. Here's one of his deft finishes around the basket: Don’t be shocked when Boise State pulls off a classic 12 over 5 upset this March.
Welcome back for my second installment of Risers and Fallers, a bi-weekly check-in that recognizes some teams on the ascent and scrutinizes some teams in trouble. This week, I'll cover my favorite Big Ten team, a once-regarded contender falling helplessly into the abyss, the decline of a top conference, and more.
And since I haven't done one of these in a month (so much for "bi-weekly"), I'll be comparing my rankings from Week 3 to my current rankings. RISERS: Rutgers: Week 3 ranking: 23; Current ranking: 9 Most expected Rutgers to be a fringe Top-25 team who won with physical, grinding defense. But their offensive improvement has made them an absolute delight to watch this year. Compare the numbers of the last two seasons: The Scarlet Knights have progressed across the board, but most notably in effective field goal percentage and three-point shooting. You can attribute the bulk of that growth to forward Ron Harper Jr. The junior finds himself in the midst of a career year as Rutgers' centerpiece. He can facilitate for his teammates both at the top of the key and out of the high post, can attack some off the bounce, and currently ranks second in the Big Ten in made three-pointers (28 for 58 on the season). His play has also buoyed Rutgers into a top-50 effective field goal percentage in transition (per hoop-math.com). The play below perfectly encapsulates Harper’s skill in snatching a board and starting the break:
Not bad for a dude deemed the early favorite for “Fat Guy of the Year.” Oregon: Week 3 ranking: 37; Current ranking: 16 I have no idea how Oregon is playing this well without their starting point guard--when the Ducks announced Will Richardson’s thumb injury on the day of their first game, I considered the news a death sentence. They lost that first contest, but they haven’t dropped one since. On defense, Oregon flaunts an abundance of length on the perimeter, and those same pieces have made huge strides on offense from a season ago. Both LJ Figueroa and Chris Duarte have progressed in their ability to get to the rim, with the latter putting up sterling numbers--16.7 points, 4.8 boards, and 2.2 assists with 52.5, 43.9, and 90.5 (!!!) shooting splits. But the player who most assuages the Richardson absence is big man Eugene Omoruyi. As the rare “point center” (as much as you can call a 6’6” guy a center), Omoruyi both anchors the paint and engineers the offense. And why not when you can make these types of passes?
VCU: Week 3 ranking: sub-50; Current ranking: 40 Saint Louis has usurped the A10 Darlings Crown from Dayton, but don’t be surprised to see VCU make a push for an at-large bid come March. The Rams excel at defense, where they use a trap-heavy defensive scheme to paralyze their foes. Once opposing ballhandlers get caught in the traps, they transform into dads on Christmas morning, treating the rock like it’s wrapping paper to be discarded. VCU wreaking havoc on defense is nothing new--but an emerging flamethrower by the name of Na’Shon “Bones” Hyland separates this squad from teams in the past. Hyland endeared himself to Draft Twitter as a freshman, and he has significantly upped his production in year two (currently averaging 17 points and 3 made three-pointers per game at a 38% clip). His evolution provides head coach Mike Rhoades a weapon he has yet to possess during his time in Richmond (the only other dynamic guard to play under Rhoades is Marcus Evans; but even in his best season (2019,) he posted a lower offensive rating and a lower scoring average than Hyland, despite a higher usage rate. Considering that team’s success, VCU fans gotta be feeling pretty good about this year. Take it away, Layne Staley!) FALLERS: Michigan State: Week 3 ranking: 8; Current ranking: 45 Okay, so this is probably the last week that Christmas references are somewhat relevant, and I know I already made one, but stick with me: I enjoy maybe three Christmas movies (I can be a bit of a Scrooge). My favorite is Christmas Vacation, but I’m always ready for it to be over during like the last 15 minutes. Something about the scene where the squirrel rampages through the Griswold house gives me terrible anxiety. But that scene--and the cringey, disorganized mess that defines it--compares adequately to Michigan State’s interior defense right now (see: Minnesota going 20-24 AT THE RIM vs. Sparty on December 28th). The ACC: Virginia still lacks a go-to scorer, Duke hasn’t played in weeks, UNC has struggled since Maui, both Florida State and Louisville are wildly inconsistent, and Clemson is the highest ranked ACC team in the AP Poll. Talent could eventually win out, which would favor the Devils, the ‘Noles, and yes, even the faltering Heels. But this is likely the second straight year the conference will fail to produce a true national title contender. |
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June 2021
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Photo used under Creative Commons from MarsInOrbit