Welcome back for my third installment of Risers and Fallers, a bi-weekly check-in that recognizes some teams on the ascent and scrutinizes some teams in trouble. Except for this week...no team will be scrutinized. That’s right--we’re abiding by the “posi vibes only” mantra and just highlighting the Risers. Several intriguing teams are thriving right now, and I couldn’t narrow them down...so I just wrote about all of them.
**these blurbs were written prior to the start of games the week of January 18th** **here is my Top 25 for the week, for reference** RISERS: Alabama: Week 7 ranking: 38; Current ranking: 13 Although Nate Oats’s “shoot only threes and layups” offense faltered in Maui, it has since propelled Bama to the top of the SEC standings--and they aren’t notching empty calory wins, either. The Tide won convincingly in Knoxville, edged their rival Auburn on the road in Sharife Cooper’s debut, crushed Florida into a fine powder, sent Kentucky back into a free fall, and bludgeoned Arkansas into oblivion. With a battalion of dynamic guards, Oats and Alabama can punish opponents with a different option every night. Against Auburn, it was Josh Primo; against Kentucky, it was John Petty; against Arkansas, it was Jaden Shackelford. Anyone out of this group can heat up and take over games. And they have the perfect piece that holds them all together--guard/forward/whatever he wants to play Herb Jones. Jones logs most of his minutes at the “1,” where he operates best out of ball screens. The 6’8” senior excels at driving and kicking, but he can also take his man off the dribble. Few perimeter defenders can contain his combination of length and athleticism. But Jones’s provides equally as impactful plays on the other end; he puts opposing wings in straitjackets and can erase open shot attempts at a moment’s notice: Florida State: Week 7 ranking: 25; Current ranking: 17 Those of you who read my preseason deep dives know how highly I value the freshmen-to-sophomore leap; generally, I think a player improves the most between year one and year two, and his progression may tapers off once he hits his junior and senior season. Well, Florida State currently defies that notion, as they enjoy breakouts from two upperclassmen. Senior guard MJ Walker has earned a feature role by upping his scoring efficiency across the board. Once a reckless chucker, the former McDonald’s All-American now shoots confidently and opportunistaclly, as evidenced by his percentages (46, 45.6, 92% splits). In the frontcourt, redshirt-junior RaiQuan Gray has materialized into a versatile playmaker who creates mismatches with his 6’8”, 260-pound frame. Throughout his first two seasons in Tallahassee, he flashed a sublime feel for the game and dished out some breathtaking passes. But that’s the thing--they were only flashes. However, that has changed this year, as he has developed consistency while playing bigger minutes. Of all big men/stretch 4s in the ACC, only two boast a higher assist rate, per Bart Torvik (Clemson’s Aamir Simms and Georgia Tech’s Jordan Usher, oddly enough). Down the stretch versus North Carolina last weekend, Leonard Hamilton deployed Gray as a ballhandler in pick-and-roll with 7’1” sophomore Balša Koprivica, and it was virtually unguardable. I know Virginia just obliterated Clemson and their top-ranked defense, but I'm buying all the Florida State stock to burst forth as the best team in the ACC. USC: Week 7 ranking: sub-40; Current ranking: 25 I for one am not ready to live in a world where Andy Enfield is a good coach, but the Trojans have performed admirably in an unexpectedly enthralling Pac-12. Freshman big man Evan Mobley has been their catalyst, and I paid some homage to him in a recent Twitter thread. But I want to focus this blurb on the rest of their frontcourt. In 6’10” sophomore Isaiah Mobley (Evan’s older brother) and 6’8” junior Drew Peterson, Southern Cal has two imposing dudes with the coordination to attack from the perimeter and the IQ to facilitate for their teammates. This bucket off of a dribble-handoff in a win at Arizona perfectly encapsulates their skillsets: Peterson, in particular, has showcased proficiency in both pick-and-roll decision making and live-dribble passing: The Rice transfer’s court vision allows Enfield to run him at the point, thus maximizing his squad’s towering height advantage (2nd nationally in height per KenPom). UCLA: Week 7 ranking: 34; Current ranking: 27 As of this week, a Mick Cronin-coached team has the 8th best offense in the country, per KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric (adjOE). Think back to his uuuuuugly Cincinnati squads, and let that sink in. Making matters more stunning, his group has reached these heights without preseason Pac-12 Player of the Year Chris Smith, who tore his ACL at the beginning of January. Like the best Cronin teams, the Bruins find success by controlling the offensive glass. Redshirt-junior Cody Riley has been a fiend on the boards, currently ranking top 3 in the Pac-12 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. Surprisingly, 6’6” junior Jules Bernard checks in at 14th in the conference in offensive rebounding rate--an impressive feat for a perimeter player. But extra possessions are secondary to the growth of redshirt-sophomore point guard Tyger Campbell. After establishing himself as one of the nation’s best facilitators last season, he has rounded out his offensive game. Check the clip below to see how he has perfected his signature herky-jerky floater: And he’s still dropping those ridiculous dimes. Boise State: Week 3 ranking: sub-40; Current ranking: 38 We’ll close this edition with a little mid-major love. I caught Boise State’s double-header versus Wyoming last week, and I realized within five minutes that they’re insanely fun to watch. The Broncos feature so many guys who can handle the ball and create their own offense. The 6’9” Derrick Alston possesses guard skills and scores over his foes at will. Arizona castoff Devonaire Doutrive has quickly emerged as a capable slasher and knockdown shooter, after making his Boise State debut earlier this month. Lastly, point guard RayJ Dennis sets the table for his teammates but also scores effectively out of iso--he’s made 31 of his 36 attempts at the rim, per hoop-math. Here's one of his deft finishes around the basket: Don’t be shocked when Boise State pulls off a classic 12 over 5 upset this March.
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June 2021
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