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Click here for part one, here for part two, and here for part three. Teams 15 through 11: 15. Iowa Deep Dive: O-VER-RA-TED *clap clap clapclapclapclap* O-VER-RA-TED *clap clap clapclapclap* Ah yes, the worst student section chant in history (why chant “overrated” at a team you just beat? it diminishes your win!). But regarding the '20-21 Iowa Hawkeyes, I can think of no better word to describe this squad as they plunge forth into the season. Take a look around--multiple sports media outlets sharpied them into the top 5 as soon as Luka Garza announced his return for his senior season. Now, by no means do I think that Iowa is a bad team. After all, they easily crack my top 25, and they have the skill and the experience to make a deep run in March--even to the Final Four if they catch a few breaks. But the teams’ warts (i.e. nonexistent defense) could drastically impede their postseason goals. So by analyzing both sides of the ball, I hope to have Iowa PROP-ER-LY RA-TED *clap clap clapclapclap* But let’s start with the reason why so many pundits regard Iowa so highly: their offense hums in perfect harmony, like a good jam band that plays with a level of chemistry that only years of practice can create. The Hawkeyes work well off of each other, knowing individual strengths and weaknesses. The ball rarely sticks with the team. as they keep it moving until the best shot arises. Flares, pin-downs, and other blocker-mover concepts generate these open looks, and their guys have the confidence to make 'em even in high pressure situations. And let’s be real...when the shot clock winds down, they can just get the ball to Luka and watch him work. The senior big man transformed into a wrecking force on the block last season, earning consensus All-American honors. Although Garza plays below the rim, he bests his enemies with an abundance of post moves. You can sense the frustration of his defender, as he masterfully manipulates him with his footwork and shot fakes. Even a double team rarely slows him down, as he’s awesome at passing out of them. And finally, he made 39 threes last season, so he won’t just clog the paint either. Moreover, head coach Fran McCaffery has accumulated the perfect supporting cast for Garza. Shooters surround him up and down the roster, as the Hawkeyes return five guys (in addition to Garza) who made at least 20 three pointers last season. The Mayonaisse Quartet of Connor McCaffery, Joe Wieskamp, Jordan Bohannon and CJ Fredrick can all splash the trey ball and can all play together. The younger McCaffery and Wieskamp mainly shine as spot-up shooters, though they can create their own offense in spurts. But Fredrick, now starting his redshirt-sophomore season, brings the most intriguing skillset. Maybe it’s just because he’s a 6’3” white guy who wears number 5, but I see some Kyle Guy Lite potential for Fredrick. He darts all over the court, stopping on a dime to catch and drain threes. But his game features more than just shooting--he displays craftiness with the ball in his hands whether passing (2.8 assists per game to just 1.3 turnovers last season) or creating separation to get his shot off. While both Fredrick and McCaffery can handle the ball, sophomore Joe Toussaint likely seizes the lead guard role in year two. The physical guard pushes tempo in a way no one else on the roster can match. Last year, his efficiency swung more than Fran McCaffery’s temper--but in moments, he demonstrated strong finishing at the rim, navigating through defenders on his way to the cup. The Hawkeyes’ offense soared to new heights in 2019-20, finishing as the 5th most efficient offense per KenPom, the highest in the elder McCaffery’s tenure. In Garza’s swan song, they could top that ranking if Fredrick and Toussaint continue on their upward trajectory. But, as earlier hinted, defense remains the most pressing defect. Last season, the Hawkeyes finished third-to-last in defensive efficiency in their conference, right above doormats Northwestern and Nebraska. And that was actually an upgrade; in 2017, 2018, and 2019, Iowa ranked dead last in the Big Ten. When you watch the Hawkeyes, you almost immediately notice their lackadaisical commitment to defense. The whole team gets caught ball watching, leading to lazy closeouts on the perimeter and flat feet on the interior. If a guy gets beat by a shot fake, the help defenders rotate a step slow, which often gives way to an easy layup. Quite frequently, they look like they’re wading through wet cement when the other team has the ball. In a conference that prides itself on grit and grind, Iowa is the contrarian among the contenders. While defense could lead to their demise, Luka can be the AED that revives them on any given night. His final season in Iowa City affords him a chance to chase both postseason glory and that elusive National Player of the Year award. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Joe Toussaint (So.), G - Conner McCaffery (Jr.), G - CJ Fredrick (RSo.), G/F - Joe Wieskamp (Sr.), C - Luka Garza (Sr.) Projected bench: G - Jordan Bohanon (RSr.), F - Jack Nunge (RJr.), G - Patrick McCaffery (RFr.) Strengths: passing, ballhandling, shooting Weaknesses: can’t close out, can’t protect the rim (in a conference with a million good big men) Best player: Garza Breakout player: Fredrick 14. Texas Tech Deep Dive: In 1998, Pixar released their breakthrough film A Bug’s Life. I was six years old when it came out, and there’s a certain scene that has stayed embedded in my memory for the last 22 years: It’s no surprise that a line involving a “poo poo platter” would stick in the mind of a six-year-old boy. However, this quote reflects the negative connotation we often associate with the actual dish known as the pupu platter. Go ahead and click on that Wikipedia link--an authentic pupu platter looks pretty delicious to me. All that is to say, Chris Beard accumulated a pupu platter of transfers this offseason. It’s almost tough to keep track of everybody who switched over to Tech because the coach netted such an absurd amount of talent. Regarding the success of transfers in his system, Beard’s resume speaks for itself. But of course, in such an odd offseason with limited practices and contact, this pupu platter could turn into a poo poo platter (more on that later). However, his new players will have ample opportunities to thrive under his tutelage. For his frontcourt, Beard landed VCU transfer Marcus Santos-Silva, who should run away with the title of "best rebounder he has ever coached." With pure, unadulterated determination (and a hefty backside), the big man boxes out challengers, relentlessly wearing on them throughout the game. Rarely does rebounding evoke awe, but his nose for the ball is pretty amazing. It almost looks like missed shots just gravitate into his mitts. While he can score on putbacks, his limitations arise when facing lengthy defenders (he's only 6’6", maybe 6’7”). But the Red Raiders shouldn't need him to score a ton, and what he lacks on offense, he makes up on defense. Although he won’t block many shots (again, short arms), he does an incredible job of stifling opponents with his ridiculously wide frame. Santos-Silva stays in the perfect position to protect the rim without fouling, keeping his chest and his arms up. Beard may complement Santos-Silva with UNLV transfer Joel Ntambwe, who boasts a silky face-up game. The 6’8” forward gallops down the floor like a gazelle; he can grab-and-go on the fast break or knock down transition threes as a trailer. And with his spring-loaded legs, he will bring a functional athleticism to both sides of the ball that the Red Raiders sorely missed last season. Turning to the backcourt, Wichita State transfer Jamarius Burton will compete for a bulk of the minutes. The Charlotte product (out of Independence High School, more known for their football program back in the day) plays a physical style of ball, often posting up smaller guards and using his strength and footwork to score over them. But he doesn’t need the rock in his hands to succeed; Burton could grow into a potent catch-and-shoot threat, as over half of his made threes last season came off of assists from his teammates, per hoop-math.com. Surprisingly, the transfer with the highest-profile also happens to be the most polarizing. Mac McClung will suit up in Lubbock this fall after announcing his departure from Georgetown this past spring. The junior first made waves in high school with viral mixtapes that showcased an arsenal of flashy dunks. However, in two years with the Hoyas, he looked more or less like a high-ceiling volume shooter. I kinda blindly bought into McClung going into his sophomore year (embarrassingly ranking Georgetown in my preseason top 25); but after witnessing his streakiness repeat itself, I view him as more of a “prove it” candidate than a surefire difference-maker. Undoubtedly, moving out of the dysfunctional Georgetown program into the ideal culture at Texas Tech will propel McClung’s development. But if Beard wants to use him as a Davide Moretti replacement...good luck. McClung’s ball-dominant, sporadically efficient play makes him the antithesis of the poised and consistent Italian. Both McClung and Burton will have to beat out some established veterans and a heralded freshman for starting jobs along the perimeter. Junior Kyler Edwards headlines the list of returners, and he will seek to regain his shooting touch from his freshman year--after hitting 44% of his triples as a frosh, he regressed to a pedestrian 32% in year two. However, his 2-point field goal percentage rocketed last season, signaling an expanding offensive skillset. Now, if Edwards’ can combine that improvement with a return to form from long-range, he could burgeon into the Red Raiders’ leading scorer. And don’t overlook his defensive mastery. Though only 6’4”, his long arms enable him to hound opposing guards and match up with much bigger players; he flourishes in Beard’s switch-just-about-everything defense. Sophomore Terrence Shannon exhibited scintillating athleticism a season ago, leading Texas Tech in dunks. He might as well weld a neon sign on his jersey that announces “BREAKOUT PLAYER AND POTENTIAL LOTTERY PICK,” especially considering Beard’s track record with similar prospects. The strong forward can play either the “3” or the “4,” where he tortures flat-footed big men. He toys with defenders in space, drawing them out to the three-point line, then catching them off balance before thundering to the hoop. If his three-point shot progresses (only 9 makes in 2019-20), Texas Tech could unseat Kansas for the Big 12 crown, much like they did back in 2019. And finally, freshman Nimari Burnett will round out the guard rotation. I wrote back in June about how much I love Burnett--to summarize, he’s a big, long guard with superb vision and a sweet stroke from behind the arc. Whether on-ball or off-ball, he senses out what he must do to help his team win. With this cornucopia of perimeter players, Beard can mix and match to maximize his roster's versatility. In certain situations, the coach will almost certainly go small and play four out of Burton, McClung, Edwards, Shannon, and Burnett together. And if Ntambwe gets the nod at the “5,” that could ignite offensive fireworks, creating the basketball equivalent to the air raid attack that ol’ Patty Mahomes captained a few years ago. And as usual, the Red Raiders will have one of the highest floors in the nation due to their defense. They nab steals and deflect passes, hindering offenses from getting in sync; plus, their vaunted “no middle” scheme will contain dribble penetration. We’re at the point where you just don’t expect a Beard-coached team to fall out of the top 20 in either KenPom or Torvik’s defensive efficiency metrics. So with all of this talent and one of the best coaches in the country, why the slight pessimism? Why are they not ranked top 10? Why the fear of a “poo poo platter” being on the menu? Well, they boast a diverse collection of blue chippers and transfer portal jewels...but what if egos flare up? How many shots must every player get to feel satisfied? What if all these new pieces fail to gel? History has taught us that super teams don’t always translate (see: 2011 Philadelphia Eagles “Dream Team,” 2013 “Now This is Going to be Fun” Lakers, 2017 Duke, 2019 Yankees). Let’s hope they learn from their predecessors. TLDR: Projected starting lineup: G - Nimari Burnett (Fr.), G - Kyler Edwards (Jr.), G - Mac McClung (Jr.), G/F - Terrence Shannon (So.), F - Marcus Santos Silva (GT) Projected bench: G - Jamarrius Burton (Jr.), F - Joel Ntambwe (RJr.), G/F - Kevin McCullar (So.), G/F - Micah Peavey (Fr.), G - Avery Benson (Jr.) Strengths: depth, multiple ballhandlers, athleticism, defense Weaknesses: *maybe* too many mouths to feed, McClung’s shot selection Best player: One out of Edwards, Burnett, or Shannon Breakout player: Shannon 13. North Carolina Deep Dive: Well, I engaged in masochism by rewatching games from the 2020 North Carolina Tar Heels. I had to do it in order to properly prepare this deep dive, even though I wanted to avert my eyes like I was in Bird Box every time I pressed play. But hey! It’s a new year with a more talented roster and a bearded Roy Williams. By returning ACC Player of the Year favorite in Garrison Brooks and hauling in the nation’s second-ranked recruiting class, the head coach and the Heels should be able to swiftly put last season behind th--look, I won’t even sugarcoat it: LAUNCH LAST SEASON INTO THE SUN AND LET’S PRETEND THAT IT NEVER HAPPENED. For all the negative pub the offense received last season, Carolina’s defense was statistically worse (77th in adjOE, 94th in adjDE, per KenPom). Many of their woes stemmed from a short and oft-injured post rotation combined with a subpar and mega-injured wing rotation. In Williams’ defensive philosophy, he calls for perimeter players to help on the dribble drive to push the ball out of the paint. It works when the wings have the length and athleticism to recover and contest three-point shots. However, last season, both now-senior Andrew Platek and then-grad transfer Christian Keeling had neither, and far too often, opponents’ possessions looked something like this: Compounding matters, the guards and wings often lacked the focus and awareness to fight through screens, leading to more wide-open looks. A source close to the program, former walk-on Wade Moody (my roommate back in 2014), told me this about Roy’s ball-screen defense: “His preferred way of playing screens is the big hard hedges and the guard plays over top the screener, then goes under our big who hedged. The help is from the guy two passes away who is normally in the corner or wing on the strong side of the ball...but Coach Williams gets so infuriated when guards get hit on ball screens and leave the big in no man’s land.” And the guards did, in fact, leave the bigs in no man’s land. All the time. However, these flaws may soon turn into distant memories. For starters, redshirt-freshman Anthony Harris is on track to start the season healthy after tearing his ACL in December. Though he saw action in just five games last season, Harris displayed rare defensive prowess for a freshman guard. He never shied away from matching up with the opposition’s best guard, and he made use of his agility and long frame by sometimes pressuring ballhandlers the length of the court. Since Williams loves to crank up the pace, Harris’s ability to generate live-ball turnovers will earn him huge minutes. In addition to Harris, junior Leaky Black will finally operate at full-strength. Black played all of last season with undisclosed ankle and leg injuries, which drastically hampered his assertiveness and efficiency on the defensive end. Still, he has showcased anticipation skills in jumping passing lanes, and his size and agility allow him to guard multiple positions. And finally, with a reloaded troupe of big men (the senior Brooks, sophomore Armando Bacot, and two top 20 recruits in DayRon Sharpe and Walker Kessler), Williams won’t have to scale back aggression in the interior defense to prevent foul trouble. Though the perimeter defense still has much to prove, this group could rank among the nation’s best at rim protection. But let’s get to the fun part: the offense. Most years, Williams’ high octane attack makes for both an exciting and an aesthetically pleasing product. But again, 2020 wasn’t your typical season--the Heels played at the 67th fastest pace in the country, per KenPom, a steep decline from 6th in 2019. In addition, the earlier-mentioned injuries marred the team, devastating any attempt at building consistency. The lack of cohesion all but erased the typical ball reversals and the extra passes that are staples of Williams’ halfcourt offense. And since we're piling it on, Carolina hit only 30.4% of their three-pointers (surprisingly not the worst in the ACC--thanks Virginia and Pitt!). Now, here’s where that second-ranked recruiting class comes into play. Hope abounds in a brand new backcourt, consisting of Caleb Love and RJ Davis (the 14th and 47th ranked players, respectively, in 247Sports’ Recruiting Composite). The 6’4” Love profiles as the next in line of one-and-done lead guards to come through Chapel Hill. He’s an all-around scorer, but he excels the most at attacking the basket. Love’s functional athleticism jumps off the screen--he ricochets off of defenders to finish at the rim, and he can throw down a dunk in a crowded lane. RJ Davis, on the other hand, provides a foil to Love, playing with more finesse than power. When I watch his high school games, the first comp that goes through my mind is “more athletic Marcus Paige.” I don’t think it’s fair to expect peak Paige numbers out of a top-50 freshman, but he is a good bet to average 10-12 points per game his first year. With a slick handle, Davis separates from his defender to fire his shot off from anywhere on the court. (Worth mentioning, I’m very excited to cheer for an “R. Davis”). On the wing, Carolina brings in two four-star shooters in Puff Johnson (younger brother of Cam Johnson, a 2019 All-ACC First Teamer) and Kerwin Walton. Although both will receive opportunities to earn playing time, Johnson likely contributes more this year, as I think the athletically-limited Walton may take longer to adjust to the college game. Circling back to the frontcourt, the aforementioned Sharpe fits the prototype of the classic UNC big. With an always-churning motor, he runs the floor and attacks the glass harder than Roy (not that Roy) at Poor Richard’s after finding out that Pam kissed Jim. Kessler plays like a 7-foot Luke Maye, exhibiting a velvety stroke from both mid-range and from beyond the arc. Those two will ease the load of the incumbent starters, Brooks and Bacot. Brooks’s ascension into an All-American hopeful has been well-documented, but Bacot’s progression will make for the more interesting storyline. A former five-star recruit, Bacot endured a wildly inconsistent freshman year. At the Battle 4 Atlantis in November, he looked like the best player on the court versus a great Oregon team. But an early December ankle injury derailed his development. While he boasts the conditioning and the speed to blossom into a top-notch rim-runner, he must sharpen his play in the halfcourt. Gaining lower body strength and working on scoring with his left hand will be two key improvements to track, as both furtherances would increase his potency around the basket. The ACC will be top heavy yet again. So in a worst-case scenario, the Heels should float atop of the conference's second tier, behind Virginia, Duke, and Florida State. But with the combination of Brooks’s veteran leadership, an infiltration of pedigreed recruits, and a frontcourt that looks as deep as their havoc-wreaking 2017 group, Carolina could return to competing for top seeds in the Tourney this spring. TLDR: Projected starters: G - RJ Davis (Fr.), G - Caleb Love (Fr.), G - Anthony Harris (RFr.), F - Garrison Brooks (Sr.), F - Armando Bacot (So.) Projected bench: G - Leaky Black (Jr.), F - Day’Ron Sharpe (Fr.), F/C - Walker Kessler (Fr.), G/F - Puff Johnson (Fr.), G/F Kerwin Walton (Fr.) Strengths: rebounding, tempo, frontcourt depth, a coupla ELECTRIC guards, rebounding again Weaknesses: three-point shooting is still a question mark, no proven wings Best player: Brooks or Love Breakout player: Harris 12. Creighton Deep Dive: Think back to August, when the NBA Bubble first got off the ground. Before the playoffs began, it seemed like a different player notched a career-high in points every single night. The Pacers’ TJ Warren upped his scoring from 19 a game to 31 a game. Blazers’ star Damian Lillard increased his output from 29 to 38. Nuggets’ enigma Michael Porter Jr. went from averaging a forgettable 7.5 points to 22 points (and almost 9 boards). Of course, when the games started to count, teams’ discipline ramped up, and the numbers regressed to more normal figures. But if those early Bubble days got you hooked on high-scoring hoops, the Creighton Blue Jays might be your new favorite team. Head coach Doug McDermott’s seeks to play as many guards as possible--even the Jays’s “big men” typically only stand around 6’5”. His philosophy (combined with his excellent coaching) produces basketball players who never play selfishly, rarely take ill-advised shots, and drain the three-ball more reliably and consistently than any team in the country. McDermott creatively schemes with ball screens, utilizing double screens in the halfcourt, drag screens in transition, and flares and cross-screens to open up shooters off-ball. Junior point guard Marcus Zegarowski leads this prolific offense, and he anticipates building off of a breakout sophomore campaign where he averaged nearly 17 points and 5 assists per contest. His quickness and coordination with the ball in his hands distinguish him from other lead guards. Throughout last season, Zegarowski displayed a nasty crossover, often shaking his defender en route to the basket--of his 63 makes at the rim, only 6 came off of assists, per hoop-math.com. And that’s not even mentioning his three-point jumper. Whether off the catch or off the bounce, Zegarowski shoots with the stone-cold poise and fearlessness reminiscent of Breaking Bad villain Gus Fring. The Big East Player of the Year favorite has hit from beyond the arc at a 42% clip in both years in Omaha. Senior Mitch Ballock flanks Zegarowski as the perfect running mate. The 6’5” senior totes a gorgeous lefty jumper, and he notched both a career-high in made threes per game (3 per game, 93 on the season) and three-point percentage (43.5) a year ago. But he can also serve as a secondary playmaker, making reads out of pick-and-roll and give-and-gos. While Zegarowski and Ballock will spark up the Creighton offense, McDermott must find a third perimeter playmaker to start alongside them. The surprising exit of All-Big East guard Ty-Shon Alexander dealt the Jays a hard blow that knocked them out of Top 5 consideration. But hopefully one of their prospects can serve as a capable replacement. Redshirt-sophomore Antwann Jones will get the first crack after spending last season as a sit-out transfer from Memphis. If you judged him solely off of a YouTube search, you would think he’s an All-American lock--highlight montages with titles such as “NEXT DEVIN BOOKER?” and “He’s unguardable!!!” use an excessive dose of hyperbole. In reality, he’s a former fringe top-100 prospect with decent athleticism and a projectable shooting stroke. Creighton won’t need him to light it up, but if he can pour in around 10 points per game and hit spot-up threes, he’ll secure his minutes. In the frontcourt (I use that term very loosely with Creighton), the Bluejays have two studs with similar builds who contribute contrasting skills: Damien Jefferson and Denzel Mahoney. The 6’5” Jefferson generates most of his offense by rampaging to the hoop, where he forcefully finishes through length. Though he is not overly explosive, Jefferson demonstrates craftiness in scoring around the basket. The senior plays bigger than his listed height, converting an outrageous 74.4% of his shots at the rim, per hoop-math.com But he doesn’t need the ball to make an impact--Jefferson does the dirty work (i.e. screen setting) and led the team in rebounds a season ago. Mahoney, on the other hand, comes into the game to shoot, flex his rec specs, and shoot some more. McDermott mainly deploys him as instant offense off the pine, where he flaunts a versatile scoring package. However, in some games, his quick trigger leads to sloppiness--like an 0 for 5 performance in a loss at Providence. But in other contests, his offensive potency swings the outcome in the Jays’s favor--like when he went 4 for 6 from beyond the arc in a win versus Seton Hall in the final (full) game of the season. Perhaps this year he can play less erratically. Turning to the more traditional bigs, McDermott has more options than ever before in his coaching career. Junior Christian Bishop assumes the start at the “5,” where he shines in his role--which is basically to dunk and score on put-backs (6th in the Big East in offensive rebounding rate in 2019-20). Then, there's Redshirt-junior Jacob Epperson, who oozes with untapped upside. The Aussie, a once-decorated recruit out of the storied La Lumiere School, has persevered through a back injury and a broken tibia that almost axed his college career. But now, at full health, the 7-footer will give the Jays some much-needed size around the basket--in a small sample, he’s been automatic at the rim, converting 81% of his two-pointers two seasons ago. And finally, top-100 freshman Ryan Kalkbrenner will deliver energy minutes off the bench, primarily as a shot blocker. Traditionally, defense has held Creighton back from advancing past the first weekend of the Big Dance--most often, they end up as nothing more than a cute story. Last year’s team was fine defensively, by Creighton’s standards (78th nationally on KenPom, 67th on Bart Torvik), but the departed Alexander’s expertise on that end exceeded his teammates’ by leaps and bounds. They lack the top-flight athleticism and length to coerce shooters into difficult shots, and they get crushed on the glass, surrendering a plentitude of offensive rebounds. And yet, the offense has a chance to be the best unit in the country, so if they can just hover in the 60th to 70th range in defensive efficiency, McDermott may finally put his March blues behind him. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Marcus Zegarowski (Jr.), G - Mitchell Ballock (Sr.), G - Antwann Jones (RSo.), F - Damien Jefferson (RSr.), F - Christian Bishop (Jr.) Projected bench: G/F - Denzel Mahoney (RSr.), G - Rati Androninkashvili (Fr.), C - Jacob Epperson (RSo.), G - Shereef Mitchell (So.), C - Ryan Kalkbrenner (Fr.) Strengths: three-point shooting, passing, offense in general, a bulletproof system for guards Weaknesses: rebounding, depth, defense Best player: Zegarowski Breakout player: Jones 11. Illinois Deep Dive: Allow me to draw a comparison between Illini coach Brad Underwood and pop icon Taylor Swift. His days at Stephen F. Austin are akin to Swift’s country music beginnings: similar to how Taylor was a young, up-and-coming star, Underwood was a budding mid-major coach. But doubts arose for both--was Swift’s success sustainable? Or was it based upon nothing more than breakup lyrics and a twangy tune? Were Underwood’s teams overly reliant on the full-court press? Could his style hold up against major conference foes, or was it just a gimmick? But then both dealt a blow to the naysayers: Taylor released Red, showcasing her genre-bending songwriting, and Underwood took a dormant Oklahoma State program to the Tournament in his first year at the helm. Yet trouble soon followed. Underwood accepted the Illinois job (the 1989 of college basketball programs--good, not great; had some hits, but lacks staying power). And his first two years resembled the much-maligned Swift album Reputation (lowkey had some bangers on it though). But after back-to-back sub-500 seasons, Underwood made good on his hire; last year’s team provided thrilling wins, played frisky defense, and was a Tournament lock. Back in the limelight, proving his worth, this was his Lover moment. Now, four years into his tenure in Champaign, Underwood will coach his best team yet. This could be the folklore season, ending in awards, acclaim, and maybe even a National Championship. The optimism surrounding Illinois starts with junior guard Ayo Dosunmu. Draft Twitter picks apart his flaws, but I don’t care--Dosunmu is a certified HOOPER. Few can keep up with his speed in transition, and he uses his quickness to burst by his defender in the halfcourt. The 6’5” Chicago product established himself as an elite slasher last season after converting 71.8% of his shots at the rim, per hoop-math.com. His ability to score out of iso situations gives Underwood a safeguard for when the shot clock starts ticking down, especially considering his penchant for hitting crunch time buckets. The one knock on his game is three-point shooting (32% for his career, 29% last season), but if Ayo can improve those numbers, he instantly becomes the favorite for National Player of the Year. (And he also made an incredible video announcing his return to school). Dosunmu’s backcourt partner Trent Frazier enters his final season for the Illini hoping to regain his shooting touch. From November through January, the lefty guard hit 40 threes at a 37% mark. But, like most of the world, 2020 did a number on him. Frazier's three-point field goal percentage submarined to 19% during the months of February and March. But with most of the offense running through Dosunmu, Frazier’s responsibilities center mostly on scoring, so he will receive plenty of chances to show last season was only a slump. Rounding out the backcourt, Illinois has two top-50 freshmen in Adam Miller and Andre Curbelo. Miller most likely earns a starting slot, as Underwood has no problem playing four guards at the same time. Like Frazier, he boasts a smooth lefty jumper and profiles as a top-notch shot maker. While he can play on-ball, he will probably get most of his points on catch-and-shoot threes and off of one-dribble pull-ups whenever he shares the floor with Donsunmu. Curbelo, a Puerto Rican New Yorker, hoops like he wants to make every play worthy of a mixtape inclusion--and I mean that in the best way possible. He masterfully manipulates his defender on the dribble-drive; for example, he’ll fake like he’s gunning for a layup, then either change his speed to sink a floater or throw an alley-oop at the last second. On his recruiting profile, 247Sports compared him to Kendall Marshall, which is a pretty easy way to my heart. The guy is just insanely fun to watch, and he will add some flavor to the Illini’s second unit. The final perimeter spot in the starting rotation belongs to Da’Monte Williams. The 6’3” wing worked as the “4” in the bulk of Illinois’ lineups last season--an admirable feat for someone his size. Although he offers next to nothing on offense, Williams affects the game with timely defensive plays. His awareness and IQ allow him to nab a steal or swat a shot even when it seems like he has been overmatched. Of course, guarding frontcourt players becomes exponentially easier when you have Kofi Cockburn as a security blanket. Despite surpassing expectations as a freshman, the sophomore colossus has not gotten enough love on preseason All-American teams. Rarely do freshmen big men exhibit the coordination, touch, and conditioning needed to dominate in the major conferences; even less frequently do they bear those traits in a 7-foot 285-pound body; and only on the rarest occasions do these types of athletes play more than one year of college basketball. But Cockburn checks all of those boxes--he will thrash and throttle talented big men all year. Behind Cockburn are two offensive-minded bigs in junior Giorgi Bezhanishvili and freshman Coleman Hawkins. As an upperclassman, Giorgi B has the advantage for playing time--but Hawkins brandishes such an intriguing skillset. He made that list of “Five Recruits Who Will Outplay Their Ranking” I mentioned earlier, if you want to read a deeper analysis of his game. But in case you don’t want to give me the clicks, here’s the gist of it: he’s 6’10” with a sublime three-point shot, and he always seems to play both selflessly and intelligently. In April, I wondered why recruiting sites labeled him as just a three-star, fringe top-150 guy, and I still have those same questions. Underwood seems to feel the same: “He’s been terrific,” Underwood said. “Coleman gives us a luxury we haven’t had. Probably at some point in his career, he’ll probably be a small forward. He’s a great stretch four. He’s an elite shooter. He’s a great ball-handler and an elite passer. There’s no coaching some of the things that he does. He does them instinctively. Having a guy who’s 6’10” who can do those things is an advantage.” The Fighting Illini have a couple of studs who can create offense, highlighted by an All-American candidate in Ayo Dosunmu. And they play disciplined defense, punctuated by a rim deterrent in yet another All-American hopeful, Kofi Cockburn. For context, here are two recent teams that featured two All-Americans: 2019 Virginia and 2018 Villanova. If the supporting cast immediately succeeds, and if last season's collective 30% three-point percentage proves to be an outlier, this ranking will be way too low. While those unknowns kept me from penciling Illinois into my top 5, they still could become the first Big Ten team to win a Natty in twenty years. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Ayo Dosunmu (Jr.), G - Trent Frazier (Sr.), G - Adam Miller (Fr.), F - Da'Monte Williams (Sr.), C - Kofi Cockburn (So.) Projected bench: G - Andre Curbelo (Fr.), F - Giorgi Bezhanishvili (Jr.), G/F - Jacob Grandison (RJr.), F - Coleman Hawkins (Fr.) Strengths: experienced guard play, Goliath protecting the rim, rebounding Weaknesses: three-point shooting, offense spirals out of sorts sometimes Best player: Dosunmu Breakout player: Cockburn
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AuthorRiley Davis Archives
June 2021
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