You can find part one of this post here. TLDR? No teams are that good. Therefore, a bunch of different guys can win National Player of the Year. On to the favorites! (In the order of least likely to most likely to win the award).
The Favorites Vernon Carey - F/C, Duke, Fr. Why he will win it: Like Marvin Bagley and Zion Williamson before him, Carey has a spring-loaded second bounce that gives him a Jason Voorhies-like quality when it comes to guarding him. Even when defenders forces him into a miss, thinking they have him beat, he just won't die. He ranks ninth in the ACC in offensive rebounds, and anecdotally speaking, he usually turns those boards into points. Much of Duke's offense revolves around feeding Carey in the paint, where he uses his size and positioning to free himself for catch-and-dunks. He powerfully finishes through contact, leading the ACC in free throw attempts. While the freshman thrives down low, his acumen is not limited to that of an old school center--he can run the floor, and he even has a decent enough handle to take a rebound or a steal coast to coast. With his robust scoring and rebounding averages and his blue blood pedigree, expect Carey to stick around in the running for the award as long as Duke stays in the top 10. Why he won't win it: Sophomore point guard Tre Jones is the face of this year's Duke team, and his play warrants an argument for the title of Duke's best player, so they could end up siphoning votes from each other. Also, during Duke's two-game losing streak, Clemson and Louisville both exposed Carey's defense in spread pick-and-roll. If that trend continues, his stock will tumble.
Payton Pritchard - G, Oregon, Sr.
Why he will win it: Pritchard pilots KenPom's sixth-ranked offense with his uber-efficiency. He's averaging almost 20 points per game on near 50-40-80 percentages (from the field, from three, from free-throw), all while leading the Pac-12 in minutes played and ranking ninth in usage rate. The lead guard exudes confidence and control when he plays--he expertly treads the line between involving his teammates and knowing when to take over a game. In addition, Pritchard has already delivered two season-defining clutch moments on the road--an overtime go-ahead basket at Michigan and an overtime game winner this past weekend at Washington.
The Ducks dropped a head-scratcher at Washington State early last week, but I still think they have the pieces to make a deep run in March, especially as their defense continues to improve. As a starter on the 2017 Final Four team and the engineer of their unanticipated surge to the Sweet 16 a season ago, Pritchard knows how to win in the postseason. Why he won't win it: Many of their games are televised on the ever-elusive Pac-12 Network, and they lost to Washington State. Need I say more?
Jared Butler - G, Baylor, So.
Why he will win it: Last week, Stadium's Jeff Goodman sparked a Twitter debate with CBS Sports's Matt Norlander and NBC Sports's Rob Dauster on the criteria for ranking teams. In a later article, Dauster outlined the logic behind his rankings as such: "the best team in the country is the team that would be favored on a neutral court against every other team in the country." I more or less agree with that principle, although I factor in some speculation on who I think will be best going forward when I fill out my ballot. Nonetheless, I do think Baylor is the best team in the nation. I've ranked them 8th or higher every week since December 9th; and their demolition of Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse lifted them from #5 to #1. That contest flashed their amalgamation of meticulousness and physicality on defense and their balance of power (in the colossi Mark Vital and Freddie Gillespie) and craft (in guards MaCio Teague, Davion Mitchell, and Butler) on offense. The best player on the best team always contends for the award; thus, if Baylor keeps this up, expect Butler's name to be in the conversation until the season's end. He already turned in a signature performance against the Jayhawks, scoring 22 points, dishing out 3 assists, and grabbing 4 boards. Kansas' 2-point defense ranks 24th in the nation, per Bar Torvik, but it didn't matter who they had guarding the interior--Butler schooled their big men with his finishing ability at the rim. Kansas tried to quell him with Marcus Garrett, their best perimeter defender. It didn't work. That's Butler's game: he's an attacking guard who can knock down threes, and defensively, he has the length to frustrate his opponent. In recent years, Baylor has pulled off prime wins only to regress to a fringe top 25 team. But they have both the roster chemistry and the coaching to sustain their momentum this year. Why he won't win it: As good as Baylor is, they rarely top 70 points in a game. Therefore, they lack appeal to the casual fan. Looking at the last three National Players of the Year (Zion Williamson, Jalen Brunson, Frank Mason III), they either suited up for a blue-blood with name recognition or they played in an electrifying offense (or both). Not checking those boxes doesn't disqualify Butler, but it foes inhibit his chances. Devon Dotson - G, Kansas, So.
Why he will win it: Jared Butler may be on the better team, but I think Dotson is the better player. The Charlotte native has lived up to every expectation of a sophomore leap, improving his statistics across the board. In a win at Texas this weekend, he displayed all of the attributes that distinguish him from your average floor general.
Dotson accelerates and decelerates with unmatched burst, nimbleness, and dexterity. He's listed at a generous 6'2", but he uses those skills to shake defenders and score over bigger players in the lane. For example, here, he speeds into the paint before abruptly stopping to hit a little runner over his man. And his speed makes him nearly uncontainable on the fast break, where he can take the rock to the rack or reward the open man. Lastly, critics may point to his subpar three-point shooting to undermine his campaign (31% on the year), and that's admittedly fair--but I mean, he did hit a long range dagger off the dribble that entombed the Longhorns. I think it's reasonable to expect continued growth in that area. But what I think is most impressive about Dotson's sophomore campaign is that he is playing at such a high level with no other consistent shot creators on his team. In recent years, Bill Self has succeeded in recruiting, developing, and coaching playmaking guards; this method ensures that he can play multiple guys who can both generate their own offense and facilitate for others. Think of the teams that trotted out combinations of Frank Mason, Wayne Selden, Devonte Graham, and Malik Newman. No other player like that can be found on Kansas' roster--Dotson's supporting cast, talented as they may be, mostly rely upon him to get them the ball. With him drawing so much attention from opposing defenses, his 18 points per game average becomes even more eye-popping. Why he won't win it: Honestly, we're at the point in the list where I think all the remaining guys deserve to win the award.
Cassius Winston - G, Michigan State, Sr.
Why he will win it: Winston, the preseason favorite, captains the best team in the Big Ten (which is undeniably the best conference in America), and Sparty looks the part of a national title contender. The senior has performed at his peak throughout this month; during a three-game stretch of blowout victories over Illinois, Michigan, and Minnesota, he averaged 26.6 points and 7 assists per game. Specifically, the walloping of the Wolverines highlighted everything that makes Winston so fun: he buried pull-up jumpers, led Michigan State's blitzing transition attack, and he dished out dime after dime to his teammates. But for all of his accomplishments on the court, his perseverance off the court makes this season transcendent. On November 9th, Winston's brother Zachary took his own life. I struggle to put into words what I feel for Cassius--I can only imagine the despair, the hurt, and the confusion that must've infiltrated his mind. Losing a family member and a best friend is tough at any age; and for a 22 year old, especially one with a spotlight as big as his, to continue to play is beyond admirable. His Instagram tribute to Zachary was raw, authentic, heart-wrenching, and beautiful. Why he won't win it: Again, no qualms here if he wins it.
Obi Toppin - F, Dayton, So.
Why he will win it: Dayton plays one of the most aesthetically pleasing brands of basketball I've ever seen. They play patiently yet aggressively, fundamentally yet flashy, and diligently yet effortlessly. Their offense operates like a rushing, roaring river--powerful and all-consuming, yet bridled by its tributary walls that keep it from uncontrollable flooding. And Toppin is the riverhead, from which the whole team flows. Obi can post up, he can hit threes, and he can put the ball on the deck and attack close-outs. As a superb athlete, a guard just has to get the ball somewhat within his radius out of pick-and-rolls and dribble hand-offs, and he's skying for a dunk. He's the main reason why Dayton ranks second in both KenPom and Bart Torvik's adjusted offensive efficiency metric. Dayton shares the ball extraordinarily well; they always make the extra pass, and their transition offense is Carolina-esque (the good Carolina teams, if that wasn't clear). Both Toppin's skillset and his IQ shine in the fast break. If all that wasn't enough for you to buy into his case for the National Player of the Year honors, he even has that viral step-back three against Kansas in Maui. Why he won't win it: He deserves it the most. Only the mid-major optics can stop him.
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AuthorRiley Davis Archives
June 2021
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