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Click here for part one, here for part two, and here for part three. Teams 15 through 11: 15. Iowa Deep Dive: O-VER-RA-TED *clap clap clapclapclapclap* O-VER-RA-TED *clap clap clapclapclap* Ah yes, the worst student section chant in history (why chant “overrated” at a team you just beat? it diminishes your win!). But regarding the '20-21 Iowa Hawkeyes, I can think of no better word to describe this squad as they plunge forth into the season. Take a look around--multiple sports media outlets sharpied them into the top 5 as soon as Luka Garza announced his return for his senior season. Now, by no means do I think that Iowa is a bad team. After all, they easily crack my top 25, and they have the skill and the experience to make a deep run in March--even to the Final Four if they catch a few breaks. But the teams’ warts (i.e. nonexistent defense) could drastically impede their postseason goals. So by analyzing both sides of the ball, I hope to have Iowa PROP-ER-LY RA-TED *clap clap clapclapclap* But let’s start with the reason why so many pundits regard Iowa so highly: their offense hums in perfect harmony, like a good jam band that plays with a level of chemistry that only years of practice can create. The Hawkeyes work well off of each other, knowing individual strengths and weaknesses. The ball rarely sticks with the team. as they keep it moving until the best shot arises. Flares, pin-downs, and other blocker-mover concepts generate these open looks, and their guys have the confidence to make 'em even in high pressure situations. And let’s be real...when the shot clock winds down, they can just get the ball to Luka and watch him work. The senior big man transformed into a wrecking force on the block last season, earning consensus All-American honors. Although Garza plays below the rim, he bests his enemies with an abundance of post moves. You can sense the frustration of his defender, as he masterfully manipulates him with his footwork and shot fakes. Even a double team rarely slows him down, as he’s awesome at passing out of them. And finally, he made 39 threes last season, so he won’t just clog the paint either. Moreover, head coach Fran McCaffery has accumulated the perfect supporting cast for Garza. Shooters surround him up and down the roster, as the Hawkeyes return five guys (in addition to Garza) who made at least 20 three pointers last season. The Mayonaisse Quartet of Connor McCaffery, Joe Wieskamp, Jordan Bohannon and CJ Fredrick can all splash the trey ball and can all play together. The younger McCaffery and Wieskamp mainly shine as spot-up shooters, though they can create their own offense in spurts. But Fredrick, now starting his redshirt-sophomore season, brings the most intriguing skillset. Maybe it’s just because he’s a 6’3” white guy who wears number 5, but I see some Kyle Guy Lite potential for Fredrick. He darts all over the court, stopping on a dime to catch and drain threes. But his game features more than just shooting--he displays craftiness with the ball in his hands whether passing (2.8 assists per game to just 1.3 turnovers last season) or creating separation to get his shot off. While both Fredrick and McCaffery can handle the ball, sophomore Joe Toussaint likely seizes the lead guard role in year two. The physical guard pushes tempo in a way no one else on the roster can match. Last year, his efficiency swung more than Fran McCaffery’s temper--but in moments, he demonstrated strong finishing at the rim, navigating through defenders on his way to the cup. The Hawkeyes’ offense soared to new heights in 2019-20, finishing as the 5th most efficient offense per KenPom, the highest in the elder McCaffery’s tenure. In Garza’s swan song, they could top that ranking if Fredrick and Toussaint continue on their upward trajectory. But, as earlier hinted, defense remains the most pressing defect. Last season, the Hawkeyes finished third-to-last in defensive efficiency in their conference, right above doormats Northwestern and Nebraska. And that was actually an upgrade; in 2017, 2018, and 2019, Iowa ranked dead last in the Big Ten. When you watch the Hawkeyes, you almost immediately notice their lackadaisical commitment to defense. The whole team gets caught ball watching, leading to lazy closeouts on the perimeter and flat feet on the interior. If a guy gets beat by a shot fake, the help defenders rotate a step slow, which often gives way to an easy layup. Quite frequently, they look like they’re wading through wet cement when the other team has the ball. In a conference that prides itself on grit and grind, Iowa is the contrarian among the contenders. While defense could lead to their demise, Luka can be the AED that revives them on any given night. His final season in Iowa City affords him a chance to chase both postseason glory and that elusive National Player of the Year award. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Joe Toussaint (So.), G - Conner McCaffery (Jr.), G - CJ Fredrick (RSo.), G/F - Joe Wieskamp (Sr.), C - Luka Garza (Sr.) Projected bench: G - Jordan Bohanon (RSr.), F - Jack Nunge (RJr.), G - Patrick McCaffery (RFr.) Strengths: passing, ballhandling, shooting Weaknesses: can’t close out, can’t protect the rim (in a conference with a million good big men) Best player: Garza Breakout player: Fredrick 14. Texas Tech Deep Dive: In 1998, Pixar released their breakthrough film A Bug’s Life. I was six years old when it came out, and there’s a certain scene that has stayed embedded in my memory for the last 22 years: It’s no surprise that a line involving a “poo poo platter” would stick in the mind of a six-year-old boy. However, this quote reflects the negative connotation we often associate with the actual dish known as the pupu platter. Go ahead and click on that Wikipedia link--an authentic pupu platter looks pretty delicious to me. All that is to say, Chris Beard accumulated a pupu platter of transfers this offseason. It’s almost tough to keep track of everybody who switched over to Tech because the coach netted such an absurd amount of talent. Regarding the success of transfers in his system, Beard’s resume speaks for itself. But of course, in such an odd offseason with limited practices and contact, this pupu platter could turn into a poo poo platter (more on that later). However, his new players will have ample opportunities to thrive under his tutelage. For his frontcourt, Beard landed VCU transfer Marcus Santos-Silva, who should run away with the title of "best rebounder he has ever coached." With pure, unadulterated determination (and a hefty backside), the big man boxes out challengers, relentlessly wearing on them throughout the game. Rarely does rebounding evoke awe, but his nose for the ball is pretty amazing. It almost looks like missed shots just gravitate into his mitts. While he can score on putbacks, his limitations arise when facing lengthy defenders (he's only 6’6", maybe 6’7”). But the Red Raiders shouldn't need him to score a ton, and what he lacks on offense, he makes up on defense. Although he won’t block many shots (again, short arms), he does an incredible job of stifling opponents with his ridiculously wide frame. Santos-Silva stays in the perfect position to protect the rim without fouling, keeping his chest and his arms up. Beard may complement Santos-Silva with UNLV transfer Joel Ntambwe, who boasts a silky face-up game. The 6’8” forward gallops down the floor like a gazelle; he can grab-and-go on the fast break or knock down transition threes as a trailer. And with his spring-loaded legs, he will bring a functional athleticism to both sides of the ball that the Red Raiders sorely missed last season. Turning to the backcourt, Wichita State transfer Jamarius Burton will compete for a bulk of the minutes. The Charlotte product (out of Independence High School, more known for their football program back in the day) plays a physical style of ball, often posting up smaller guards and using his strength and footwork to score over them. But he doesn’t need the rock in his hands to succeed; Burton could grow into a potent catch-and-shoot threat, as over half of his made threes last season came off of assists from his teammates, per hoop-math.com. Surprisingly, the transfer with the highest-profile also happens to be the most polarizing. Mac McClung will suit up in Lubbock this fall after announcing his departure from Georgetown this past spring. The junior first made waves in high school with viral mixtapes that showcased an arsenal of flashy dunks. However, in two years with the Hoyas, he looked more or less like a high-ceiling volume shooter. I kinda blindly bought into McClung going into his sophomore year (embarrassingly ranking Georgetown in my preseason top 25); but after witnessing his streakiness repeat itself, I view him as more of a “prove it” candidate than a surefire difference-maker. Undoubtedly, moving out of the dysfunctional Georgetown program into the ideal culture at Texas Tech will propel McClung’s development. But if Beard wants to use him as a Davide Moretti replacement...good luck. McClung’s ball-dominant, sporadically efficient play makes him the antithesis of the poised and consistent Italian. Both McClung and Burton will have to beat out some established veterans and a heralded freshman for starting jobs along the perimeter. Junior Kyler Edwards headlines the list of returners, and he will seek to regain his shooting touch from his freshman year--after hitting 44% of his triples as a frosh, he regressed to a pedestrian 32% in year two. However, his 2-point field goal percentage rocketed last season, signaling an expanding offensive skillset. Now, if Edwards’ can combine that improvement with a return to form from long-range, he could burgeon into the Red Raiders’ leading scorer. And don’t overlook his defensive mastery. Though only 6’4”, his long arms enable him to hound opposing guards and match up with much bigger players; he flourishes in Beard’s switch-just-about-everything defense. Sophomore Terrence Shannon exhibited scintillating athleticism a season ago, leading Texas Tech in dunks. He might as well weld a neon sign on his jersey that announces “BREAKOUT PLAYER AND POTENTIAL LOTTERY PICK,” especially considering Beard’s track record with similar prospects. The strong forward can play either the “3” or the “4,” where he tortures flat-footed big men. He toys with defenders in space, drawing them out to the three-point line, then catching them off balance before thundering to the hoop. If his three-point shot progresses (only 9 makes in 2019-20), Texas Tech could unseat Kansas for the Big 12 crown, much like they did back in 2019. And finally, freshman Nimari Burnett will round out the guard rotation. I wrote back in June about how much I love Burnett--to summarize, he’s a big, long guard with superb vision and a sweet stroke from behind the arc. Whether on-ball or off-ball, he senses out what he must do to help his team win. With this cornucopia of perimeter players, Beard can mix and match to maximize his roster's versatility. In certain situations, the coach will almost certainly go small and play four out of Burton, McClung, Edwards, Shannon, and Burnett together. And if Ntambwe gets the nod at the “5,” that could ignite offensive fireworks, creating the basketball equivalent to the air raid attack that ol’ Patty Mahomes captained a few years ago. And as usual, the Red Raiders will have one of the highest floors in the nation due to their defense. They nab steals and deflect passes, hindering offenses from getting in sync; plus, their vaunted “no middle” scheme will contain dribble penetration. We’re at the point where you just don’t expect a Beard-coached team to fall out of the top 20 in either KenPom or Torvik’s defensive efficiency metrics. So with all of this talent and one of the best coaches in the country, why the slight pessimism? Why are they not ranked top 10? Why the fear of a “poo poo platter” being on the menu? Well, they boast a diverse collection of blue chippers and transfer portal jewels...but what if egos flare up? How many shots must every player get to feel satisfied? What if all these new pieces fail to gel? History has taught us that super teams don’t always translate (see: 2011 Philadelphia Eagles “Dream Team,” 2013 “Now This is Going to be Fun” Lakers, 2017 Duke, 2019 Yankees). Let’s hope they learn from their predecessors. TLDR: Projected starting lineup: G - Nimari Burnett (Fr.), G - Kyler Edwards (Jr.), G - Mac McClung (Jr.), G/F - Terrence Shannon (So.), F - Marcus Santos Silva (GT) Projected bench: G - Jamarrius Burton (Jr.), F - Joel Ntambwe (RJr.), G/F - Kevin McCullar (So.), G/F - Micah Peavey (Fr.), G - Avery Benson (Jr.) Strengths: depth, multiple ballhandlers, athleticism, defense Weaknesses: *maybe* too many mouths to feed, McClung’s shot selection Best player: One out of Edwards, Burnett, or Shannon Breakout player: Shannon 13. North Carolina Deep Dive: Well, I engaged in masochism by rewatching games from the 2020 North Carolina Tar Heels. I had to do it in order to properly prepare this deep dive, even though I wanted to avert my eyes like I was in Bird Box every time I pressed play. But hey! It’s a new year with a more talented roster and a bearded Roy Williams. By returning ACC Player of the Year favorite in Garrison Brooks and hauling in the nation’s second-ranked recruiting class, the head coach and the Heels should be able to swiftly put last season behind th--look, I won’t even sugarcoat it: LAUNCH LAST SEASON INTO THE SUN AND LET’S PRETEND THAT IT NEVER HAPPENED. For all the negative pub the offense received last season, Carolina’s defense was statistically worse (77th in adjOE, 94th in adjDE, per KenPom). Many of their woes stemmed from a short and oft-injured post rotation combined with a subpar and mega-injured wing rotation. In Williams’ defensive philosophy, he calls for perimeter players to help on the dribble drive to push the ball out of the paint. It works when the wings have the length and athleticism to recover and contest three-point shots. However, last season, both now-senior Andrew Platek and then-grad transfer Christian Keeling had neither, and far too often, opponents’ possessions looked something like this: Compounding matters, the guards and wings often lacked the focus and awareness to fight through screens, leading to more wide-open looks. A source close to the program, former walk-on Wade Moody (my roommate back in 2014), told me this about Roy’s ball-screen defense: “His preferred way of playing screens is the big hard hedges and the guard plays over top the screener, then goes under our big who hedged. The help is from the guy two passes away who is normally in the corner or wing on the strong side of the ball...but Coach Williams gets so infuriated when guards get hit on ball screens and leave the big in no man’s land.” And the guards did, in fact, leave the bigs in no man’s land. All the time. However, these flaws may soon turn into distant memories. For starters, redshirt-freshman Anthony Harris is on track to start the season healthy after tearing his ACL in December. Though he saw action in just five games last season, Harris displayed rare defensive prowess for a freshman guard. He never shied away from matching up with the opposition’s best guard, and he made use of his agility and long frame by sometimes pressuring ballhandlers the length of the court. Since Williams loves to crank up the pace, Harris’s ability to generate live-ball turnovers will earn him huge minutes. In addition to Harris, junior Leaky Black will finally operate at full-strength. Black played all of last season with undisclosed ankle and leg injuries, which drastically hampered his assertiveness and efficiency on the defensive end. Still, he has showcased anticipation skills in jumping passing lanes, and his size and agility allow him to guard multiple positions. And finally, with a reloaded troupe of big men (the senior Brooks, sophomore Armando Bacot, and two top 20 recruits in DayRon Sharpe and Walker Kessler), Williams won’t have to scale back aggression in the interior defense to prevent foul trouble. Though the perimeter defense still has much to prove, this group could rank among the nation’s best at rim protection. But let’s get to the fun part: the offense. Most years, Williams’ high octane attack makes for both an exciting and an aesthetically pleasing product. But again, 2020 wasn’t your typical season--the Heels played at the 67th fastest pace in the country, per KenPom, a steep decline from 6th in 2019. In addition, the earlier-mentioned injuries marred the team, devastating any attempt at building consistency. The lack of cohesion all but erased the typical ball reversals and the extra passes that are staples of Williams’ halfcourt offense. And since we're piling it on, Carolina hit only 30.4% of their three-pointers (surprisingly not the worst in the ACC--thanks Virginia and Pitt!). Now, here’s where that second-ranked recruiting class comes into play. Hope abounds in a brand new backcourt, consisting of Caleb Love and RJ Davis (the 14th and 47th ranked players, respectively, in 247Sports’ Recruiting Composite). The 6’4” Love profiles as the next in line of one-and-done lead guards to come through Chapel Hill. He’s an all-around scorer, but he excels the most at attacking the basket. Love’s functional athleticism jumps off the screen--he ricochets off of defenders to finish at the rim, and he can throw down a dunk in a crowded lane. RJ Davis, on the other hand, provides a foil to Love, playing with more finesse than power. When I watch his high school games, the first comp that goes through my mind is “more athletic Marcus Paige.” I don’t think it’s fair to expect peak Paige numbers out of a top-50 freshman, but he is a good bet to average 10-12 points per game his first year. With a slick handle, Davis separates from his defender to fire his shot off from anywhere on the court. (Worth mentioning, I’m very excited to cheer for an “R. Davis”). On the wing, Carolina brings in two four-star shooters in Puff Johnson (younger brother of Cam Johnson, a 2019 All-ACC First Teamer) and Kerwin Walton. Although both will receive opportunities to earn playing time, Johnson likely contributes more this year, as I think the athletically-limited Walton may take longer to adjust to the college game. Circling back to the frontcourt, the aforementioned Sharpe fits the prototype of the classic UNC big. With an always-churning motor, he runs the floor and attacks the glass harder than Roy (not that Roy) at Poor Richard’s after finding out that Pam kissed Jim. Kessler plays like a 7-foot Luke Maye, exhibiting a velvety stroke from both mid-range and from beyond the arc. Those two will ease the load of the incumbent starters, Brooks and Bacot. Brooks’s ascension into an All-American hopeful has been well-documented, but Bacot’s progression will make for the more interesting storyline. A former five-star recruit, Bacot endured a wildly inconsistent freshman year. At the Battle 4 Atlantis in November, he looked like the best player on the court versus a great Oregon team. But an early December ankle injury derailed his development. While he boasts the conditioning and the speed to blossom into a top-notch rim-runner, he must sharpen his play in the halfcourt. Gaining lower body strength and working on scoring with his left hand will be two key improvements to track, as both furtherances would increase his potency around the basket. The ACC will be top heavy yet again. So in a worst-case scenario, the Heels should float atop of the conference's second tier, behind Virginia, Duke, and Florida State. But with the combination of Brooks’s veteran leadership, an infiltration of pedigreed recruits, and a frontcourt that looks as deep as their havoc-wreaking 2017 group, Carolina could return to competing for top seeds in the Tourney this spring. TLDR: Projected starters: G - RJ Davis (Fr.), G - Caleb Love (Fr.), G - Anthony Harris (RFr.), F - Garrison Brooks (Sr.), F - Armando Bacot (So.) Projected bench: G - Leaky Black (Jr.), F - Day’Ron Sharpe (Fr.), F/C - Walker Kessler (Fr.), G/F - Puff Johnson (Fr.), G/F Kerwin Walton (Fr.) Strengths: rebounding, tempo, frontcourt depth, a coupla ELECTRIC guards, rebounding again Weaknesses: three-point shooting is still a question mark, no proven wings Best player: Brooks or Love Breakout player: Harris 12. Creighton Deep Dive: Think back to August, when the NBA Bubble first got off the ground. Before the playoffs began, it seemed like a different player notched a career-high in points every single night. The Pacers’ TJ Warren upped his scoring from 19 a game to 31 a game. Blazers’ star Damian Lillard increased his output from 29 to 38. Nuggets’ enigma Michael Porter Jr. went from averaging a forgettable 7.5 points to 22 points (and almost 9 boards). Of course, when the games started to count, teams’ discipline ramped up, and the numbers regressed to more normal figures. But if those early Bubble days got you hooked on high-scoring hoops, the Creighton Blue Jays might be your new favorite team. Head coach Doug McDermott’s seeks to play as many guards as possible--even the Jays’s “big men” typically only stand around 6’5”. His philosophy (combined with his excellent coaching) produces basketball players who never play selfishly, rarely take ill-advised shots, and drain the three-ball more reliably and consistently than any team in the country. McDermott creatively schemes with ball screens, utilizing double screens in the halfcourt, drag screens in transition, and flares and cross-screens to open up shooters off-ball. Junior point guard Marcus Zegarowski leads this prolific offense, and he anticipates building off of a breakout sophomore campaign where he averaged nearly 17 points and 5 assists per contest. His quickness and coordination with the ball in his hands distinguish him from other lead guards. Throughout last season, Zegarowski displayed a nasty crossover, often shaking his defender en route to the basket--of his 63 makes at the rim, only 6 came off of assists, per hoop-math.com. And that’s not even mentioning his three-point jumper. Whether off the catch or off the bounce, Zegarowski shoots with the stone-cold poise and fearlessness reminiscent of Breaking Bad villain Gus Fring. The Big East Player of the Year favorite has hit from beyond the arc at a 42% clip in both years in Omaha. Senior Mitch Ballock flanks Zegarowski as the perfect running mate. The 6’5” senior totes a gorgeous lefty jumper, and he notched both a career-high in made threes per game (3 per game, 93 on the season) and three-point percentage (43.5) a year ago. But he can also serve as a secondary playmaker, making reads out of pick-and-roll and give-and-gos. While Zegarowski and Ballock will spark up the Creighton offense, McDermott must find a third perimeter playmaker to start alongside them. The surprising exit of All-Big East guard Ty-Shon Alexander dealt the Jays a hard blow that knocked them out of Top 5 consideration. But hopefully one of their prospects can serve as a capable replacement. Redshirt-sophomore Antwann Jones will get the first crack after spending last season as a sit-out transfer from Memphis. If you judged him solely off of a YouTube search, you would think he’s an All-American lock--highlight montages with titles such as “NEXT DEVIN BOOKER?” and “He’s unguardable!!!” use an excessive dose of hyperbole. In reality, he’s a former fringe top-100 prospect with decent athleticism and a projectable shooting stroke. Creighton won’t need him to light it up, but if he can pour in around 10 points per game and hit spot-up threes, he’ll secure his minutes. In the frontcourt (I use that term very loosely with Creighton), the Bluejays have two studs with similar builds who contribute contrasting skills: Damien Jefferson and Denzel Mahoney. The 6’5” Jefferson generates most of his offense by rampaging to the hoop, where he forcefully finishes through length. Though he is not overly explosive, Jefferson demonstrates craftiness in scoring around the basket. The senior plays bigger than his listed height, converting an outrageous 74.4% of his shots at the rim, per hoop-math.com But he doesn’t need the ball to make an impact--Jefferson does the dirty work (i.e. screen setting) and led the team in rebounds a season ago. Mahoney, on the other hand, comes into the game to shoot, flex his rec specs, and shoot some more. McDermott mainly deploys him as instant offense off the pine, where he flaunts a versatile scoring package. However, in some games, his quick trigger leads to sloppiness--like an 0 for 5 performance in a loss at Providence. But in other contests, his offensive potency swings the outcome in the Jays’s favor--like when he went 4 for 6 from beyond the arc in a win versus Seton Hall in the final (full) game of the season. Perhaps this year he can play less erratically. Turning to the more traditional bigs, McDermott has more options than ever before in his coaching career. Junior Christian Bishop assumes the start at the “5,” where he shines in his role--which is basically to dunk and score on put-backs (6th in the Big East in offensive rebounding rate in 2019-20). Then, there's Redshirt-junior Jacob Epperson, who oozes with untapped upside. The Aussie, a once-decorated recruit out of the storied La Lumiere School, has persevered through a back injury and a broken tibia that almost axed his college career. But now, at full health, the 7-footer will give the Jays some much-needed size around the basket--in a small sample, he’s been automatic at the rim, converting 81% of his two-pointers two seasons ago. And finally, top-100 freshman Ryan Kalkbrenner will deliver energy minutes off the bench, primarily as a shot blocker. Traditionally, defense has held Creighton back from advancing past the first weekend of the Big Dance--most often, they end up as nothing more than a cute story. Last year’s team was fine defensively, by Creighton’s standards (78th nationally on KenPom, 67th on Bart Torvik), but the departed Alexander’s expertise on that end exceeded his teammates’ by leaps and bounds. They lack the top-flight athleticism and length to coerce shooters into difficult shots, and they get crushed on the glass, surrendering a plentitude of offensive rebounds. And yet, the offense has a chance to be the best unit in the country, so if they can just hover in the 60th to 70th range in defensive efficiency, McDermott may finally put his March blues behind him. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Marcus Zegarowski (Jr.), G - Mitchell Ballock (Sr.), G - Antwann Jones (RSo.), F - Damien Jefferson (RSr.), F - Christian Bishop (Jr.) Projected bench: G/F - Denzel Mahoney (RSr.), G - Rati Androninkashvili (Fr.), C - Jacob Epperson (RSo.), G - Shereef Mitchell (So.), C - Ryan Kalkbrenner (Fr.) Strengths: three-point shooting, passing, offense in general, a bulletproof system for guards Weaknesses: rebounding, depth, defense Best player: Zegarowski Breakout player: Jones 11. Illinois Deep Dive: Allow me to draw a comparison between Illini coach Brad Underwood and pop icon Taylor Swift. His days at Stephen F. Austin are akin to Swift’s country music beginnings: similar to how Taylor was a young, up-and-coming star, Underwood was a budding mid-major coach. But doubts arose for both--was Swift’s success sustainable? Or was it based upon nothing more than breakup lyrics and a twangy tune? Were Underwood’s teams overly reliant on the full-court press? Could his style hold up against major conference foes, or was it just a gimmick? But then both dealt a blow to the naysayers: Taylor released Red, showcasing her genre-bending songwriting, and Underwood took a dormant Oklahoma State program to the Tournament in his first year at the helm. Yet trouble soon followed. Underwood accepted the Illinois job (the 1989 of college basketball programs--good, not great; had some hits, but lacks staying power). And his first two years resembled the much-maligned Swift album Reputation (lowkey had some bangers on it though). But after back-to-back sub-500 seasons, Underwood made good on his hire; last year’s team provided thrilling wins, played frisky defense, and was a Tournament lock. Back in the limelight, proving his worth, this was his Lover moment. Now, four years into his tenure in Champaign, Underwood will coach his best team yet. This could be the folklore season, ending in awards, acclaim, and maybe even a National Championship. The optimism surrounding Illinois starts with junior guard Ayo Dosunmu. Draft Twitter picks apart his flaws, but I don’t care--Dosunmu is a certified HOOPER. Few can keep up with his speed in transition, and he uses his quickness to burst by his defender in the halfcourt. The 6’5” Chicago product established himself as an elite slasher last season after converting 71.8% of his shots at the rim, per hoop-math.com. His ability to score out of iso situations gives Underwood a safeguard for when the shot clock starts ticking down, especially considering his penchant for hitting crunch time buckets. The one knock on his game is three-point shooting (32% for his career, 29% last season), but if Ayo can improve those numbers, he instantly becomes the favorite for National Player of the Year. (And he also made an incredible video announcing his return to school). Dosunmu’s backcourt partner Trent Frazier enters his final season for the Illini hoping to regain his shooting touch. From November through January, the lefty guard hit 40 threes at a 37% mark. But, like most of the world, 2020 did a number on him. Frazier's three-point field goal percentage submarined to 19% during the months of February and March. But with most of the offense running through Dosunmu, Frazier’s responsibilities center mostly on scoring, so he will receive plenty of chances to show last season was only a slump. Rounding out the backcourt, Illinois has two top-50 freshmen in Adam Miller and Andre Curbelo. Miller most likely earns a starting slot, as Underwood has no problem playing four guards at the same time. Like Frazier, he boasts a smooth lefty jumper and profiles as a top-notch shot maker. While he can play on-ball, he will probably get most of his points on catch-and-shoot threes and off of one-dribble pull-ups whenever he shares the floor with Donsunmu. Curbelo, a Puerto Rican New Yorker, hoops like he wants to make every play worthy of a mixtape inclusion--and I mean that in the best way possible. He masterfully manipulates his defender on the dribble-drive; for example, he’ll fake like he’s gunning for a layup, then either change his speed to sink a floater or throw an alley-oop at the last second. On his recruiting profile, 247Sports compared him to Kendall Marshall, which is a pretty easy way to my heart. The guy is just insanely fun to watch, and he will add some flavor to the Illini’s second unit. The final perimeter spot in the starting rotation belongs to Da’Monte Williams. The 6’3” wing worked as the “4” in the bulk of Illinois’ lineups last season--an admirable feat for someone his size. Although he offers next to nothing on offense, Williams affects the game with timely defensive plays. His awareness and IQ allow him to nab a steal or swat a shot even when it seems like he has been overmatched. Of course, guarding frontcourt players becomes exponentially easier when you have Kofi Cockburn as a security blanket. Despite surpassing expectations as a freshman, the sophomore colossus has not gotten enough love on preseason All-American teams. Rarely do freshmen big men exhibit the coordination, touch, and conditioning needed to dominate in the major conferences; even less frequently do they bear those traits in a 7-foot 285-pound body; and only on the rarest occasions do these types of athletes play more than one year of college basketball. But Cockburn checks all of those boxes--he will thrash and throttle talented big men all year. Behind Cockburn are two offensive-minded bigs in junior Giorgi Bezhanishvili and freshman Coleman Hawkins. As an upperclassman, Giorgi B has the advantage for playing time--but Hawkins brandishes such an intriguing skillset. He made that list of “Five Recruits Who Will Outplay Their Ranking” I mentioned earlier, if you want to read a deeper analysis of his game. But in case you don’t want to give me the clicks, here’s the gist of it: he’s 6’10” with a sublime three-point shot, and he always seems to play both selflessly and intelligently. In April, I wondered why recruiting sites labeled him as just a three-star, fringe top-150 guy, and I still have those same questions. Underwood seems to feel the same: “He’s been terrific,” Underwood said. “Coleman gives us a luxury we haven’t had. Probably at some point in his career, he’ll probably be a small forward. He’s a great stretch four. He’s an elite shooter. He’s a great ball-handler and an elite passer. There’s no coaching some of the things that he does. He does them instinctively. Having a guy who’s 6’10” who can do those things is an advantage.” The Fighting Illini have a couple of studs who can create offense, highlighted by an All-American candidate in Ayo Dosunmu. And they play disciplined defense, punctuated by a rim deterrent in yet another All-American hopeful, Kofi Cockburn. For context, here are two recent teams that featured two All-Americans: 2019 Virginia and 2018 Villanova. If the supporting cast immediately succeeds, and if last season's collective 30% three-point percentage proves to be an outlier, this ranking will be way too low. While those unknowns kept me from penciling Illinois into my top 5, they still could become the first Big Ten team to win a Natty in twenty years. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Ayo Dosunmu (Jr.), G - Trent Frazier (Sr.), G - Adam Miller (Fr.), F - Da'Monte Williams (Sr.), C - Kofi Cockburn (So.) Projected bench: G - Andre Curbelo (Fr.), F - Giorgi Bezhanishvili (Jr.), G/F - Jacob Grandison (RJr.), F - Coleman Hawkins (Fr.) Strengths: experienced guard play, Goliath protecting the rim, rebounding Weaknesses: three-point shooting, offense spirals out of sorts sometimes Best player: Dosunmu Breakout player: Cockburn
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Click here for part one and here for part two. Teams 20 through 16: 20. Oregon Deep Dive: I can only imagine the morose and dejected feelings that descended upon Oregon fans after COVID wiped away the NCAA Tournament. Losing a program legend like Payton Pritchard hurts enough--but losing him and missing out on his last quest for immortality? Surely that inflicted unspeakable anguish upon the Ducks' faithful. ...But perhaps a star in waiting can stitch up the open wound. I would direct Oregon fans to observe two recent Kansas teams. In 2017, Frank Mason piloted a machine of a Jayhawk team that dismantled almost every challenger; behind Mason’s National Player of the Year campaign, Kansas went 28-3 in the regular season before flaming out in the Elite 8 versus...the Oregon Ducks and an emerging freshman named Peyton Pritchard. The following season, Needham B. Broughton’s finest Devonte’ Graham took over for the graduated Mason...and the Jayhawks didn’t miss a beat. They actually advanced further in the Tourney, making it all the way to the Final Four, where a historically great Villanova team went all Buddy-the-Elf-in-a-snowball-fight on them from beyond the three-point line. Nonetheless, what Kansas had in Graham, Oregon may have in junior Will Richardson. The 6’5” lefty ignited the offense off the pine for the first part of the season before entering the starting lineup for the last 13 games. His first two contests as a starter were...not good (1 and 0 points, respectively). But since those stats don’t help the point I’m about to make, I’m going to discard them and attribute them to Richardson adjusting to a new role. Because for the next 11 games, he dominated--Richardson averaged 14 points while shooting an incomprehensible 52% on a high volume of threes. In addition, it seemed as if Pritchard shared a little slice of his clutch pie with Richardson during conference play--his go-ahead basket in an overtime comeback win versus Arizona sticks out as a defining moment. Richardson’s scoring prowess pops all over the court. Last season, he was one of just three guards in Pac-12 who ranked top 15 in effective field goal percentage with a usage rate of over 18%. He’s also a plus rebounder for his position, and last year’s 115 assists to only 49 turnovers illustrate his excellent feel for the game. Look for him to flash more of his passing acumen this season.
On the perimeter, senior Chris Duarte will flank Richardson. The former JuCo standout proved that he belongs in the Conference of Champions a year ago--during league play, he averaged nearly 14 points and 6 rebounds per contest. I don’t think any coach would complain about having a 6’6” athlete who can get open off-ball with exceptional cuts; but with Dana Altman, Duarte has found a coach who maximizes his skillset, taking advantage of his size on smaller guards. But after Duarte, Altman can call upon a variety of options: Duquesne transfer Eric Williams Jr., UNLV transfer Amauri Hardy, and Rutgers transfer Eugene Omoruyi will all compete for starting slots on the wing or in the frontcourt. Williams, a redshirt junior, looks like everything you want in a forward; he’s not ball-dominant, cleans both the defensive and offensive glass, attacks closeouts, and knocks down corner threes. Plus, as a sit-out transfer, he has already developed some chemistry with his teammates. Hardy needs the ball in his hands, so he may be best suited as a sparkplug off the bench (no way that he starts over Richardson or Duarte). For a 6’2” guard, he’s pretty compact; thus, his size should hold up against the bigger bodies of the Pac-12. The chiseled Omoruyi offers the most versatility: he’s a dogged rebounder who can grab and go, he can bang in the post but can also space the floor, and he brings a little passing spice from the forward position. Protecting the rock and improving consistency in his three-point shot will prove to be prime factors in sustaining his playing time. In the frontcourt, Altman can play Williams or Omoruyi as small ball “4”s, or he can rely on sophomores Chandler Lawson and N’Faly Dante if he wants to play a traditional two big lineup. Offensive limitations hinder Lawson’s ceiling (although he did post the highest assist rate of any big man in the Pac-12 last season, per Bart Torvik), but he factored heavily into Oregon’s staunch interior defense. For Dante, everything that could go wrong did go wrong in year one--after re-classing, the NCAA botched his paperwork, and then doubled-down on their mistake by forcing him to sit out a semester. If it wasn’t hard enough for a 17-year-old to play catch-up, he suffered a lingering knee injury in late January, limiting him to just 12 games on the season. Still, he offers two-way upside if it all clicks. He could evolve into a Megalodon version of Jordan Bell as a shot-blocking menace on defense and a dunk-everything, offensive-rebounding titan on offense. With Richardson sliding into the lead guard role, Duarte slotting in as his copilot, and a stable of formidable wings and frontcourt options, the Ducks could once again hover around the top 10 of offensive efficiency (5th in KenPom’s adjOE in 2019-20). The largest strides, however, must be made on the defensive end. Despite flummoxing foes in March with his morphing defense, Altman’s scheme produces varying results over the greater course of the season. In particular, they defended the three-point line terribly last season. Like any zone defense, Oregon’s matchup zone leaves itself susceptible to three-point barrages--but I think it’s more than just a weakness in the system. The Ducks regularly looked lethargic and confused in their rotations and recoveries. Below are back-to-back plays versus Colorado: Per Haslametrics, they surrendered the nation's 15th highest amount of three-point attempts versus the average opponent. Their challengers converted a middle-of-the-pack 32.6% of those attempts, but if they don’t sharpen their discipline, some positive regression and/or bad luck could cause that number to inflate. Still, there are reasons to believe they can and will improve in this area. More depth on the wing plus the maturation of players in their second year in the program should alone mitigate some of these concerns. Additionally, Oregon will continue to trap ballhandlers before they cross halfcourt, which will yield plenty of breakaway steals (Duarte, in particular, shines at picking pockets and jumping passing lanes). Improving their defense to a top 40 unit seems possible, which will be needed if they want to win the sneakily deep Pac 12. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Will Richardson (Jr.), G - Chris Duarte (Sr), G/F - Eric Williams (RJr.), F - Eugene Omoruyi (RJr.), C - N’Faly Dante (So.) Projected bench: G - Amauri Hardy (Sr.), F - Chandler Lawson (So.), G - Jalen Terry (Fr.) Strengths: three-point shooting, ball movement, guard play Weaknesses: three-point defense, defensive rebounding Best player: Richardson Breakout player: Dante 19. Michigan State Deep Dive: Similar to Oregon, Michigan State too must supplant a program legend in the backcourt. A year ago, Cassius Winston persevered through the emotional turmoil of losing his brother to prime the Spartans for another deep postseason run. His demonstration of mental fortitude--to play at an All-American level while carrying a mountainous burden of grief--still amazes me to this day. He’s one of the rare collegiate athletes that no one, literally no one, can cheer against. And unfortunately for Sparty, he’s not the only cornerstone they have to replace. Xavier Tillman ignored Dick Vitale’s scoop and headed to the Association (side note: he should be been a lottery pick). Had he returned to East Lansing, Tillman would have been my preseason player of the year (not even gonna pretend to be sorry, Luka); and although Tom Izzo has established himself as a big man savant, finding someone who can replicate Tillman’s interior defense and playmaking will be no easy matter. Marquette transfer Joey Hauser will hold down one starting frontcourt spot, and he could blossom into the centerpiece on offense. As a freshman for the Golden Eagles, Hauser flashed a smooth three-point jumper (45 makes at a 42% clip) that's especially lethal in pick-and-pop action. His deceptive pump fake gets his defender off his feet, where he can then capitalize with an impressive handle for a big man. Hauser also scores capably on the block. I don’t think Izzo gets enough credit for his offensive expertise--his teams can both push in transition and run some gorgeous halfcourt sets. In those latter scenarios, the Spartans use a heavy dosage of pick and roll, along with some flares and pin-downs, to generate their buckets. In addition, they play with exquisite movement, manipulating defenses with off-ball cutters that take attention away from shooters. It’s no coincidence that Michigan State has finished in the top 15 of KenPom’s adjOE in four of the last five seasons; Hauser can help that trend continue. Juniors Marcus Bingham and Thomas Kithier, sophomore Julius Marble, and freshman Mady Sissoko will all compete for the job next to Hauser. The members of the non-frosh trio kind of blend together into a mesh of mediocrity--although maybe Bingham can burgeon in an expanded role. Defensively, his mobility allows him to hedge ball screens and recover quickly, and his 6’11” frame aids him in blocking shots. However, in a conference where behemoth big men set the norm, he must add weight to his slim physique. Sissoko offers intriguing upside as a brawny, springy top-40 freshman. Originally from Mali, Sissoko immigrated to Utah to play high school basketball through a connection with Doctors Without Borders. The freshman has only played organized basketball for four years, but his physical profile and athleticism suggest that he will develop into a rotation player this season. With exceptional vertical pop, he elevates off the floor so effortlessly when he skies for an offensive board. Combining his bounce with his mass equates to a tough assignment for any opposing big--his ridiculous strength propels him to finish over and through sizable defenders. Developing softer hands and more offensive moves will remain points of focus for Sissoko’s development. Don’t expect him to come in and average a double-double, but at the very least, he will bludgeon backup big men when he comes off the bench. On the perimeter, Sparty has a little more clarity. Both Gabe Brown and Aaron Henry will provide steadiness and experience to the starting lineup. This season, the junior Brown could blossom into a corner-three killer. After hitting 37% of his trey balls as a freshman, he regressed to 34% last season. But his pure form and his machine-like free throw shooting (36 of 38 from the line in 2019-20) indicate that number should trend back upward. Fellow junior Aaron Henry started to churn potential into production down the stretch of conference play. He crashes the glass with tenacity, especially compared to other players at his position, and he boasts a well-rounded offensive game. Although he doesn’t shine in self-creation, he still finds success when posting up smaller guards and knocking down catch-and-shoot threes. Additionally, his IQ and passing distinguish him from your average wing; he dished almost three assists per game last season. While he may never develop into the lottery-type talent that folks envisioned during his freshman year, he could average a 14, 6, and 4 kind of stat line this season. Now, the hard part...replacing that Winston guy. Izzo will give the first crack at it to sophomore Rocket Watts. Here are three key facts about Watts that make me kind of infatuated with him:
For all the fun things about Watts, I do have concerns regarding his ability to involve his teammates. In transition, he makes the right reads, and he can find big men for pocket passes when he gets into the lane. But he won’t dissect defenses out of pick-and-roll like Cassius (at least not right away). Thus, a limited amount of lead guard options may hamper the Spartans if Watts doesn’t pan out. Freshman AJ Hoggard, a thickly built top 80 recruit, and junior Foster Loyer, the Andrew Platek of the Big Ten, will initially compete for backup minutes. Finally, Izzo’s defense will keep this team afloat even if the offense sputters while players acclimate to their new jobs. Again, I doubt some combination of Hauser, Bingham, Marble, Kithier, and Sissoko can come close to matching Tillman’s level of rim protection--but the pieces on the perimeter will alleviate some of the pressure. Henry and Brown can both guard multiple positions, and if redshirt-senior Josh Langford regains some of his pre-injury fire, he will also lockdown go-to scorers. Plus Watts’ nonstop activity on the defensive end ties opposing guards’ stomachs in knots. So even in a pseudo-rebuilding year, the Spartans maintain a great chance to finish top four in the Big Ten. But can Rocket launch them into a deep run in March? (sorry, had to) TLDR: Projected starters: G - Rocket Watts (So.), G - Aaron Henry (Jr.), G/F - Gabe Brown (Jr.), F - Joey Hauser (RJr.), F - Marcus Bingham (Jr.) Projected bench: G - Josh Langford (RSr.), G - AJ Hoggard (Fr.), F - Malik Hall (So.), F - Mady Sissoko (Fr.), F - Julius Marble (So.), F - Thomas Kithier (Jr.) Strengths: frontcourt options/depth, solid perimeter defenders, Joey Hauser pick-and-pops Weaknesses: replacing Cassius Winston Best player: Hauser Breakout player: Watts 18. Florida State Deep Dive: Florida State walked so that the Denver Nuggets could fly. That’s right--the true pioneers of “Tall Ball” dwell in Tallahassee. Leonard Hamilton rarely calls upon an athlete shorter than 6’4”, and as custom, the ‘Noles will again trot out a terrifying troupe of towering titans. With height, athleticism, and depth throughout the roster, Florida State will win with a swarming style of defense. Like Pennywise the Clown in Stephen King’s It, they mix and match their assortment of players to shape-shift into their opponents’ biggest fears. Hamilton will apply pressure, either full-court or as soon as the opposing guard crosses halfcourt. Attempts at making even basic entry passes prove challenging, as the ‘Noles deny and jump passing lanes at an elite level (9th in defensive turnover rate in 2019-20 per Bart Torvik). If an offense can move past the first wave of defenders and get the ball into the lane, Florida State’s help defenders collapse, immediately preventing easy baskets. Okay, so what if the ballhandler kicks out to the corner? Well, the ‘Noles’ wings and forwards possess both the length and the speed to recover on close-outs. These traits helped Florida State post a top-15 defense in both of the last two seasons, per KenPom. However, this year, they must replace the lynchpin of this unit: point guard Trent Forrest. A couple of candidates will contend to fill his role as the hyper-pesky on-ball disruptor. Senior RayQuan Evans made the transition from the JuCo ranks to the ACC last season, and he swiftly adjusted to the major conference life, performing admirably off the bench. Evans fits the prototype of the Hamilton guard--tall, broad shoulders, long arms, quick feet, and an always-churning motor. He even showed promise to make some splash plays on defense: Five-star freshman Scottie Barnes will also work in as a point-of-attack defender. The multiuse forward harassed elite point guards like Sharife Cooper and Reece Beekman at the high school level. Below, notice how Barnes completely smothers Beekman, snuffing out his next move before smacking the ball out of his hand. When an offense gets set, Hamilton can rely upon a bevy of switchable wings to stymie opposing perimeter threats. Seniors MJ Walker and Anthony Polite will both play a crucial part in maintaining defensive excellence. Polite, in particular, executes off-ball defense with near flawlessness, notching deflections and steals galore. In iso situations, he willingly accepts the challenge of guarding both speedy guards and powerful wings. In junior RaiQuan Gray and redshirt-junior Malik Osborne, the Seminoles possess two bigs who can secure the paint but also won’t falter if they match up with a stretch big who draws them out to the three-point line. Oh yeah, Barnes is also awesome at swatting shots when rotating over from the weak side if Hamilton wants to slide him down to the “4.”
On offense, the head coach may ask Barnes to handle a higher usage than his one-and-done players of the past. Guys like Malik Beasley, Jonathan Isaac, and Pat Williams all played alongside bonafide shot creators. Evans certainly has the potential to blossom into a true lead guard, and Walker has shown a touch of self-creation, but neither are alpha dogs. Look for Hamilton to turn Barnes loose in transition, where he can either stampede down the court to get open for a dunk or run the break himself, delivering dimes to his teammates. In the halfcourt, he comfortably operates out of the post but also has the vision, IQ, and handle to run some point. Regarding the rest of the offense, Polite offers some Devin Vassell Lite appeal with his smooth lefty jumper. I don’t expect him to make an All-ACC team or anything, but his ability to space the floor will prove vital for this squad. Both Gray and Osborne offer unique skillsets in the frontcourt. The burly Gray shows a fearlessness on the dribble-drive--sometimes to his detriment. But his size and power make him a load to handle. He also has demonstrated slick passing throughout his career, finding shooters in the corner on his drives and slinging outlet passes on the fast break. Osborne can both bang down low and pop out to fifteen feet. Though his biggest asset is his furious offensive rebounding. Despite averaging less than 20 minutes per game, he notched the 17th most offensive boards in the ACC. Although Hamilton pivoted to this smaller lineup with Gray and Osborne, he still (of course) has a 7-foot Goliath at his disposal. Sophomore Balsa Koprivica will play a larger share of minutes in his second year. Likely the flagship player in the second unit, the Serbian Seminole will keep the post play steady when the starters need a rest. A final x-factor may exist in JuCo transfer Sardaar Calhoun. Projecting JuCo players always presents a challenge, but Calhoun definitely has ACC-caliber athleticism. For his former school, Missouri State-West Plains, he exhibited confidence in shooting pull-up jumpers. However, he contorts his body in some weird ways when he fires from beyond the arc (just watch his highlights and you’ll see what I mean). The amount of time it takes him to get his three-point shot off gives me pause in assuming his scoring prowess translates. Nonetheless, I have a hard time seeing the ‘Noles dropping out of the Top 25 at any point in the season. The stout defense solidifies their floor, and if Barnes’ play matches his pedigree, Florida State could once again celebrate an ACC Championship TLDR: Projected starters: G - RayQuan Evans (Sr.), G - Anthony Polite (Jr.), F - Scottie Barnes (Fr.), F - RaiQuan Gray (Jr.), F - Malik Osborne (Sr.) Projected bench: G - MJ Walker (Sr.), G - Saardar Calhoun (Jr.), F - Balsa Koprivica (So.), G/F - Nathanael Jack (Sr.), F - Wyatt Wilkes (Sr.) Strengths: length, defense (turnovers, specifically), the power duo of RayQuan and RaiQuan Weaknesses: shot creation, unproven go-to scorer Best player: Barnes Breakout player: Polite 17. UCLA Deep Dive: Talk about a weird year for the UCLA Bruins. When the season began, disaster ensued. UCLA suffered through an embarrassment in Maui, home losses to Hofstra and Cal State Fullerton, and constant ridicule of head coach Mick Cronin. But when spring burst forth, optimism bloomed. The team started gelling, do-everything guard Chris Smith emerged, and the Bruins strung together a seven-game winning streak to finish second in the Pac-12. But of course, COVID ruined everything, and a summer full of trials followed. First, UCLA lost a commitment from five-star point guard Daishen Nix (G League). Next, wildfires broke out in the state, not only creating another health crisis but also prolonging lockdowns that kept practices from happening. And still, amid a tilt-a-whirl of experiences, Cronin and his squad sit among the favorites for the Pac-12 title. They could even flirt with a top-10 ranking at some point this season. Surprisingly, they don't always win ugly like his Cincinnati squads. If you’re like me, you probably picture a mixture of rugby and WWE on a basketball court when you think about Bearcat basketball. During Cronin's thirteen years there, an imposing defense always belied a stagnant offense. But those days appear to be gone. Now, the head coach returns a talented, versatile, and modern roster for year two in Westwood. Most of the Bruins’ firepower can be found along the perimeter--the aforementioned Smith made a surprising return to school, and he gives UCLA a proven go-to scorer. After two uninspiring seasons, the 6’9” wing erupted during his junior year, earning both the Pac-12’s Most Improved Player award and First Team all-conference honors. His progress on the offensive end cannot be overstated--as both a freshman and a sophomore, he posted sub-90 offensive ratings in conference play (a 100 offensive rating is average) along with negative offensive box plus-minuses. Both of those statistics shot up last season as Smith improved his three-point shot, his handle, and his ability to get to the free throw line. The next step for Smith will be developing in shot creation and adding some counter moves to his dribble package. He can already use his length to shoot over defenders and finish through traffic, but scoring more off the bounce would elevate both his pro prospects and his team’s ceiling. UCLA’s winning streak coincided with Cronin’s decision to implement a small line-up. That should again be the case this year. Alongside Smith, the Bruins possess a stable of well-rounded wings, highlighted by juniors Jules Bernard and David Singleton, sophomores Jaime Jaquez and Jake Kyman, and newcomer Johnny Juzang. Both Bernard and Singleton saw their offensive efficiency tank in their sophomore seasons, but part of that results from switching to a new system. Bernard looks best moving without the ball, finding ways to get open for a look near the basket. Singleton, on the other hand, functions more as a three-point specialist; last season, he attempted 92 three-pointers to just 21 two-pointers. Although he operates most effectively off-ball, Cronin tasked him with backup point guard duties last year--a duty with which he struggled. Singleton again may have to play ten-ish minutes a game at the “1,” but he should fair better with a season of experience. With Jaquez, Kyman, and Juzang, Cronin has three guys who could break out as the Bruins’ second-leading scorer (assuming Smith repeats as the leader). Although he barely cracked the top-100 of his high school rankings, Jaquez quickly asserted himself as one of the best freshmen in the Pac-12. Though not the quickest, he often catches his defender off-balance with a shot fake before violently attacking the rim. And if he decides to pull from long-range, he can convert with a soft touch. He only made 31% of his threes last season, but that number out to jump up this year. Down the stretch of conference play, he also hit some crunch time buckets. Kyman exploded in a handful of games last season, knocking down contested long balls with ease--he made 7 threes at Washington, 4 at Oregon, and 5 versus Arizona State. Whether off a screen or off the catch, one dribble or zero, in transition or in the halfcourt, his strong base and his high release make every shot look like it’s going in. Juzang offers a similar upside. Buried under future pros Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickley, the Kentucky transfer only saw 12 minutes per game as a frosh. However, the early word out of UCLA indicates that he has been the best shooter in practices. From February through March, the Bruins shot 35% from three as a team. With the addition of Juzang and the progression of Jaquez and Kyman, I only see that percentage increasing. Some combination of those wings will space either Jalen Hill or Cody Riley down low. Speaking of...remember three years ago when LiAngelo Ball and two teammates had a run-in with Chinese law enforcement over shoplifting in a Gucci store? Well, those non-Ball brother Bruins were, in fact, Hill and Riley. However, a lot changes in three years, and both make winning contributions with their rebounding and interior defense. Finally, redshirt-sophomore point guard Tyger Campbell will function as the primary initiator. Every year, I find myself irrationally latching onto a limited player that I think can achieve stardom. Last season, I predicted that Nojel Eastern would earn All-Big Ten honors. Talk about an All-Big Yikes on my part. But this season, I’m hoping for better luck. Because I SAW A TYGER, AND I UNDERSTAND! Campbell’s vision is divine--he has that Cassius Winston-like gifting to see where his teammates will be three steps before they get there. His live-dribble passing blesses shooters in the corner, and his pick-and-roll wizardry allows the big men to eat. Though, in order for Campbell to ascend into the elite lead guard stratosphere, he must become a more consistent scorer. Far too often last season, he would turn in a 2-for-10 performance. That won’t cut it. But every so often, like a February home win against Utah, he flashed strong finishing at the rim and dynamic shooting off the bounce. If Tyger can become a 13-15 point scorer, the Bruins can make it to the final weekend of the Tournament. TLDR: Projected starters: G - Tyger Campbell (RSo.), G - Chris Smith (Sr.), G - David Singleton (Jr.), F - Jaime Jaquez (So.), F - Jalen Hill (RJr.) Projected bench: G - Jules Bernard (Jr.), G - Johnny Juzang (So.), F - Cody Riley (RJr.), G - Jake Kyman (So.), G - Jaylen Clark (Fr.) Strengths: Ball movement, selfless play, perimeter depth Weaknesses: Inconsistent offense, point guard depth Best Player: Smith Breakout Player: Campbell or Juzang 16. Wisconsin Deep Dive: I'm sure you've heard the sports cliche “it’s the name on the front of the jersey that matters most, not the name on the back." Is there a team that better epitomizes that saying than the Wisconsin Badgers? Wait...you mean to tell me that they do have their last names on their jerseys now? Since when? How did I miss this? I blame being out of the country for a year. But still, the premise rings true. In late January, most college basketball fans (me included) thought Kobe King’s controversial departure would leave Wisconsin for dead and cost Greg Gard his job. As their best wing, King seemed to be an indispensable piece on the team. But the Badgers turned dissension to determination, rallying to win 9 of their last 11 contests en route to a share of the Big Ten title. This year, Wisconsin will set out to prove that their spring surge was no aberration. And since they return 78.5% of last season’s minutes (per Bart Torvik), they have a huge opportunity to silence their critics. However, I’m a little more skeptical of the Badgers than most media outlets: for one, they lost Brevin Pritzl, perhaps their best three-point shooter, to graduation. For two, they don’t really bring in any significant new players. And for three, even after winning the nation’s deepest league, they still only finished 22nd on KenPom. Now, I don’t want to completely diminish the way they closed out the season--after all, they beat Michigan State and won at Michigan. But during their hot streak, no other opponent cracked the top 25, and the only other road wins came against an awful Nebraska team and a mediocre Indiana squad. It’s fair to question if they can raise their ceiling much higher than that 22nd KenPom rank. Though, one thing Gard can do to better his team is keep featuring Micah Potter. The former Buckeye completed his sit-out year in December and debuted for the Badgers as soon as he gained eligibility. Despite only starting three games, the big man balled out in conference play, averaging 11 points and 7 rebounds during February and March. With a 6’10” frame and a multifaceted skillset, Potter opens up the offense; he can make plays around the basket, and his perimeter strengths create matchup problems that few teams can counter. For example, watch the dribble-handoff he runs with D’Mitrik Trice that leads to an easy dunk: But Potter’s shooting provides the Badgers’ with their most needed asset. As a true pick-and-pop maestro, he commands so much gravity with his screens. If the defenders switch, he’ll shoot over the smaller guy. If the defender goes over the screen, he’ll lure an opposing big out of the lane. If the defender hedges, he’s rolling free for a dunk. His picks pose such an imposing threat that even if he fakes setting one, he casts his defender into oblivion: His days coming off the bench are likely over, as Gard will be determined to iron out his pairing with fellow senior Nate Reuvers. The defensive concerns of deploying two athletically-limited big men gave the head coach pause last season, but the potential offensive boost may be worth the risk. Reuvers thrives with his back to the basket, as he scores most of his points on post-ups. However, he has also made 74 three-pointers in his career at a 33.6% clip, so he can stretch the floor as well. Perhaps most important, he draws double teams in the post which gives more room for the Badgers’ wings and guards to work. Senior Aleem Ford rounds out the frontcourt, as he can play either the “3” or the “4,” should Gard send one of his skyscrapers to the bench. Ford moves well without the ball, exhibits strength at the rim, and knocks down catch-and-shoot threes. Wisconsin will need these three at their best, as they have experienced more inconsistency in their backcourt. In seniors D’Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison, the Badgers have two volatile guards who “wow” you in spurts and leave you frustrated in other moments. Trice has some wiggle in his game and can score off the bounce, but he has never shot better than 38.4% from the field. Although he can catch fire from beyond the arc, his tendency to shoot his team out of the game flares up too frequently. In the final minutes of the aforementioned Michigan State win, Trice attempted bad shot after bad shot. Davison’s reputation precedes him after getting caught taking cheap shots on multiple occasions. However, his play on the court maintains a little more stability than Trice’s. His compact frame and underrated strength enable him to score at the rim, and he can bury a three with a hand in his face. Also, he can score in iso surprisingly well, even though, like Trice, his shot selection is spotty. While I don’t expect Trice or Davison to improve exponentially, just cleaning up some of their inefficiency could make an enormous difference in close games. On the opposite end, the Badgers will, as usual, pride themselves on a taxing brand of defense. By controlling the pace with their tedious tempo (342nd in the country), Wisconsin limits opponents possessions. In the halfcourt, they swiftly take away quality looks, running their opponents off the three-point line and forcing them into mid-rangers. Per Haslametrics, the Badgers boasted the 14th best defense in the nation against mid-range jumpers and the 40th best defense against shots near the rim. Simply put, there is no easy way to score against them. If games in the 50s are your thing, Wisconsin’s got you covered. While their style of basketball provides very few frills and thrills (just ask Tyler Herro), the Badgers remain a harrowing test for any Big Ten team. They don’t bring in any heralded recruits or any flashy transfers, but their continuity and their experience could lift them above their peers--especially as some of the other heavyweights of the Big Ten must replace their own stars and stalwarts. TLDR: Projected starters: G - D’Mitrik Trice (RSr.), G - Brad Davison (Sr.), F - Aleem Ford (Sr.), F - Micah Potter (RSr.), F - Nate Reuvers (Sr.) Projected bench: F - Tyler Wahl (So.), G - Johnny Davis (Fr.), F - Trevor Anderson (RSr.), F - Ben Carlson (Fr.) Strengths: Seniority/experience, defense (solid all-around, i.e. vs. the three, the mid-range, and at at the rim), decent three-point shooting Weaknesses: depth (they got none of it), low upside players, shot selection of guards Best player: Potter Breakout player: Potter? If you don’t count last year a breakout. He could average 15+ points this year |
AuthorRiley Davis Archives
June 2021
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