In just two weeks, we've seen:
But what early-season narratives will stick? Observations from a two week sample can be like Special K--they give the illusion of substance, but they're actually loaded with artificial sugar...or in this case, loaded with overreactions and overhasty conclusions. However, it's still prime time to speculate. In a rather unpleasant ditty, Tim McGraw once sang "my analysis ain't as good as it's gonna get, but it's better than it used to be before the season started"...or something like that. So let's get into three things that we've learned. 1. The Pac-12 is BACK!!! After boasting an abundance of awful teams the last two seasons, the maligned conference has finally re-earned its "Power 6" billing. The Pac-12's must-watch-player drought started after pre-tatted Lonzo left for the NBA in 2017; but this year, the schools out west teem with talent. Out of all the emerging studs, Arizona's Nico Mannion tops the list. Through the first few weeks, he looks like the best passer in the class of 2019.
During moments like this, I realize how ridiculous these athletes are. A ball shouldn't be able to glide with that much zip and precision coming off of one hand. Better yet, Nico doesn't just read the floor well when facilitating--he has also showcased the ability to adjust on the dribble drive, slowing his momentum before sinking a floater. With Mannion pushing the pace, Arizona is currently attempting 60% of their shots in transition, up from 19%(!!!) a season ago, per hoop-math.com. His fellow freshmen Josh Green and Zeke Nnaji have thrived running the floor alongside him. In addition to Arizona, both Washington and Oregon should be mainstays in the Top 25. I hate watching zone defenses. I think most basketball fans do. They look so so so SO lame--no one appears remotely intimidating while raising their arms in a "V" and scootering to and fro. But zone-hatred aside, I must admit, Washington's scheme confounds their challengers. With freshman Isaiah Stewart and his bowling ball-sized deltoids protecting the rim, the Huskies' rangy wings aggressively stalk the passing lanes, generating steals and deflections. Aside from point guard Quade Green, no one in Washington's starting lineup is shorter than 6'6". This type of versatility enables Mike Hopkins to play 6'9" freshman Jaden McDaniels at the top of the zone, where he flummoxes other teams' ballhandlers. Lastly, junior guard Nahziah Carter has launched his breakout campaign; he leads the team in scoring (15.8) and is second in rebounding (6). So far, Oregon has overwhelmed their foes, accelerating ahead of the Pac-12 horde. Last week, after obliterating a decent Boise State team (119th on KenPom), they pulled away late from a fully-stocked Memphis team. The team's pieces already mesh together nicely--Anthony Mathis has swished 15 threes at an absurd 68% clip, Francis Okoro has locked down the interior on defense, Shakur Juiston has whipped some gorgeous passes out of the post, and most importantly, Payton Pritchard has picked up where he left off from last season. Currently averaging about 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists per contest, Pritchard is the early Pac-12 POTY favorite (with Nico lurking right behind him, like Brainy to Helga in Hey Arnold). On defense, Memphis switches nearly every screen, and Pritchard capitalized; he repeatedly forced the 6'9" freshman Precious Achiuwa (a former McDonald's All-American) to switch onto him, and he made the forward look flatfooted all evening.
Achiuwa (#55) struggles to stay in front of Pritchard
2. VCU is This Year's Wofford ...albeit with a very different style of play and in a conference with more notoriety than the SoCon. But hey, the title of this point sounds good, and I think they have the best chance of any mid-major to finish in KenPom's Top 20 (Wofford finished 18th last season, for context). Despite their Top 25 buzz, I slept on VCU this offseason, ranking them 33rd in my final preseason poll. This was partly because I didn't watch them much last year and partly because I didn't believe in senior Marcus Evans. Much of the optimism centered around a healthy Evans, poised to carry an offense that stagnated a season ago. But going into this year, the guard had only converted on 32.6% of his three-point attempts throughout his career. I thought there was no way he was that good. Well, not only has Evans upped his efficiency, he has also found help in the dawning of Marcus Santos-Silva as an offensive focal piece. The burly Santos-Silva wears down the guys guarding him, bludgeoning them with his size. Even by the end of the first half, LSU's front court looked gassed trying to contain him.
Santos-Silva (#14) beats his man for two offensive rebounds
For someone who weighs 250 pounds, that's a pretty impressive second jump, too. The junior big man also anchors the defense down low, while his teammates unleash their frenzied pressure upon the ballhandlers--it's the style of play once dubbed "HAVOC." With a fury of unpredictable traps, the Rams derailed LSU's offense before they even crossed half-court, forcing the Tigers in to 26 turnovers. Senior Skylar Mays, LSU's most proven player who made the All-SEC Second Team last season, looked particularly flustered, relinquishing the ball six times. But they don't just turn teams over; they also play with fantastic discipline--watch how freshman Nah'Shon Hyland reacts to close out on this three point attempt: Loaded with a roster full of yoked dude with active hands, VCU should again earn an at-large bid. So far, they're looking like they could push for a 5 or 6 seed. 3. I Was Wrong about Seton Hall I'm officially descending my "Seton Hall is overrated" hill. I ranked them just 30th in my preseason rankings and had zero plans to move them up, especially after senior Myles Powell suffered what was initially thought to be a serious ankle injury. The Hall finished 60th in KenPom's final rankings last year--and the main reasoning behind folks slotting them into the preseason top 15 was "they bring everybody back." Yeah, and everybody but Powell is aggressively average, or so I thought. Well, last week, the Pirates nearly capsized Michigan State (still the nation's best team, in my opinion) behind Powell's 37 points, and then they decimated Saint Louis on the road. Powell has rightfully garnered all the attention--but senior big man Romaro Gill has transformed Seton Hall's defense. Though he can't guard anybody in space, he blocked five shots and disrupted double-double machine Xavier Tillman in the Michigan State game. Tillman finished 1 for 9 from the field, unable to finish at the rim due to the 7'2" Gill standing in the way. If Seton Hall gets consistent offensive production from guards Quincy McKnight and Myles Cale, they could (somewhat easily) usurp the Big East throne from Villanova.
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AuthorRiley Davis Archives
June 2021
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