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Click here for part one, here for part two, here for part three, and here for part four. Well, we did it, folks. We've finally reached the last installment of my preseason rankings. I've watched so many basketball games from last year on YouTube that I'm not sure what it's going to be like to watch live college hoops tonight. So let's soak up this last bit of speculation...because in four weeks, this could all be obsolete. Teams 5-1: 5. North Carolina For seven years, UNC fans suffered through lazy takes on how elite players no longer wanted to play in Chapel Hill—articles supposing that the Carolina mystique had faded, that Roy Williams didn't want one-and-done prospects, and even more neutral pieces that just wondered why the coaching staff struggled so much on the recruiting trail. Well...in reality, nothing more than a dragged-out academic scandal proved to be the impasse in landing highly-touted talent (I have opinions on this that you probably won’t agree with unless you’re a Tar Heel fan). However, with that well-behind them, Roy Williams has now landed multiple five-star recruits in three straight classes (including 2020). Carolina’s success this season predicates primarily on one of those esteemed recruits in point guard Cole Anthony. Anthony ranked 4th in 247Sports’ recruiting composite for the class of 2019, and numerous mock drafts currently project him as a top 3 pick. Anthony entices scouts and fans alike with his breathtaking athleticism; clips of his highlight-reel dunks pervade social media.
As an avid viewer of Cole Anthony’s Instagram stories, I’ve fawned over an innumerable amount of these videos. Carolina has never had a lead guard with this type of explosiveness. But his NBA projections aren’t just based on his flash—he already knows how to harness his athleticism to enhance his game. The son of a ten-year NBA veteran (Greg Anthony), Cole has been around the sport's highest level his whole life. His basketball genes give way to his high IQ on the court. He excels making reads in pick-and-roll, and he’s a fearless shooter off the dribble. Word out of Chapel Hill (i.e. InsideCarolina podcasts) confirms that his teammates look to him as the leader, and that he embraces this challenge. Though his commitment back in April filled me with inexpressible joy, I must say, I did wonder how much better he could be than Coby White. With the keys to the offense in hand, White demolished the “Roy doesn’t want to play freshmen” argument, earned Second Team All-ACC honors, and became a top 10 NBA draft pick this past spring. If it wasn’t clear, I love Coby White. But Cole Zwicker of the Stepien described Anthony as “a Ferrari compared to White.” While that’s a bit hard for me to believe, it heightens my already lofty expectations. He’s my preseason ACC Player of the Year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him average 19-22 points per game. But who will be Anthony's running mate? That has been a common question pitted against UNC all offseason. And since Carolina lost 76.5% of their scoring from last season, it's a valid concern. However, I think the Heels have five different guys who could emerge--and it starts with the frontcourt. A season ago, junior Garrison Brooks vastly improved upon his freshman year; he showcased better strength around the basket and even a little shooting touch in the midrange. While he didn't post mind-blowing numbers (7.9 points and 5.6 rebounds per game), he proved himself as a reliable presence down low. Judging by the progression of upperclassmen bigs in Williams' system, Brooks may still have another tier to climb.
Even if Brooks just maintains his steady 8 points and 6 boards per game, the Heels could also find help from top 30 recruit Armando Bacot. The freshman out of Florida runs the floor with the intensity that Williams demands from his big men; with a high motor and long strides, he will frustrate opposing guards by beating them down the court for an easy transition flush. Brooks and Bacot should both thrive in Williams' "secondary break" offense, where one big runs to the rim while the other trails behind, staking position at either the three-point line or in the high post. The secondary break aims to generate high-percentage buckets, oftentimes by feeding the post players. Carolina shifts into this offense when their patented fast break, well, brakes. Having two versatile big men running these sets adds both potency and unpredictability. On the wing, three more players could burgeon into a second scoring option. Senior Brandon Robinson made enormous strides in his three-point shot last season, knocking down 46% of his attempts, mainly off the catch. Defensively, he can lock down smaller guards, which will automatically gain him more playing time (he does, however, flounder a bit against bigger wings). Grad-transfer Christian Keeling comes to Chapel Hill from Charleston Southern, where no one in the Big South Conference could guard him. After averaging 17.3 points as a freshman, 17.6 points as a sophomore, and 18.7 points as a junior, he'll try to match some of that production in the ACC. A solid three-point shooter, Williams will call upon Keeling to launch the long ball while coming off of screens. With the departure of Cam Johnson, the Heels desperately need someone to fill this role. The 6'4" guard can also get into the lane and make some plays as a secondary ballhandler. If he adjusts to the increased level of competition, he can help make Carolina the best team in the country. But my favorite breakout player for the Tar Heels is sophomore Leaky Black. If you remember, this time last year, Nassir Little was garnering preseason buzz for Carolina, as the second ranked in the class of 2018. But I vividly remember a friend of mine attending UNC's annual October exhibition game, and shooting me a text that read "Little looked okay. But Leaky Black is going to be incredible." I've been a Leaky Truther™ ever since. Standing at 6'8", Leaky played a little bit of everything last season (including a few minutes at the "5" in a November game against Elon). But he's essentially a lanky wing with the vision and patience of a point guard. If you watched him last season, even in his limited minutes, he always made a play that made you understand why his skillset entranced my friend in the first place. His automatic midrange shot complements his passing, and he was 2-for-2 from behind the arc in Carolina's exhibition against Winston Salem State a week ago. In addition to what he offers offensively, Leaky should also grow into the Heels' premier perimeter defender. Here's what Williams had to say about Black's progress on the other side of the ball: "When he is on the court, our team is completely different than it is when he is not out on the court. He is better defensively than anyone else. He gets his hands on more balls. He gets his hands on more offensive rebounds." Roy said it. I believe it. And that settles it. (If you want any more thoughts on Black's upside, the Stepien wrote a great piece on him.) A torrent of unknowns rush into Chapel Hill this year; but we've seen Roy's track record. It's funny reading those articles I linked at the beginning of this blurb, because even amid the oft-maligned recruiting challenges, Williams' last four years have been nothing short of astounding: three of the last four ACC regular season titles, two Final Fours, and a Natty. They haven't been lower than a 2-seed since 2015. I'm confident that they will be a top team by February or March. 4. Florida Tim Tebow wants you to know that he is NOT okay with players making money off of their own likeness. In all of his outrage and wild gesticulating, one must wonder: has anybody told Tim that Amateur Hour Hoops ranked his Florida Gators fourth in its preseason rankings? Maybe that would soothe him a little bit. Florida boasts arguably the best roster in the country--they're comprised of a star-studded freshman class, a few sophomores ready to explode, and the flagship player from this year's transfer wire. Big man Kerry Blackshear stabilized Virginia Tech's offense last year after their starting point guard Justin Robinson went out with injury in January. But after head coach Buzz Williams left Blacksburg for College Station, Blackshear entered the transfer portal. Florida received the final rose, and the 6'10" All-ACC Second Teamer elevates the Gators from a top 20ish team to a serious National Title threat. For the Hokies, the offense ran through Blackshear; he's a whirlwind in the post, duping his defender one way, then reversing the other direction. He can score off of either hand and with a variety of moves.
And as an underrated passer, Blackshear can also find cutters out of the high post.
Florida, like Virginia Tech, runs a 4-out 1-in offense, so Blackshear should have more than enough room to operate down low. But he also knocked down 21 threes last season, forcing defenders to respect his shot. I think he can improve upon his 14.9 point and 7.5 rebound averages from a season ago. Leading the Gators alongside Blackshear will be point guard Andrew Nembhard; the Canadian headlines Florida's vaunted group of sophomores. A modern lead guard protoype, Nembhard towers over most defenders with his 6'5" stature. I have to assume his height gives him an increased vantage point, because his court vision distinguishes him from ordinary floor generals. He executes skip passes to the corners, throws pinpoint lobs in both the half-court and in transition, and manipulates defenders with his eyes, drawing attention away from a teammate underneath the basket. After finishing second in the SEC in assist rate last season, Nembhard will hope to create even more open looks for the Gators this year. Nembhard's classmates Noah Locke and Keyontae Johnson will also play critical roles for Florida. Locke's main job is to shoot like he's manning the warthog turret in Halo. The 6'3" guard attempted almost three times more three-pointers than twos last season, making 81 of them. If the triggerman improves his efficiency (37.5% from the field, 37.9% from three), the Gators could run roughshod through lackadaisical defenses. Johnson, on the other hand, will serve as the nominal "4" man and should complement Blackshear's strengths. Despite standing at just 6'5", he ranked 5th in the SEC in defensive rebounding rate. The pogo-stick Johnson takes most of his shots around the rim, off of dunks or drives, but he can also hit from behind the arc (36% as a freshman). Lastly, head coach Mike White accumulated the nation's 8th best freshman class, per 247Sports. Scottie Lewis earned the highest ranking (7th) among Florida's incoming recruits, and his perimeter defense plus his rebounding garnered him such high notoriety. Tre Mann doesn't arrive in Gainesville with quite the reputation as Lewis (21st in 247Sports' recruiting composite), but he is a score-first point guard who can heat up from distance. Mann projects as one of the best spark-plugs off the pine in the country. Under White, defense has never been an issue--during his entire tenure, spanning from 2015-19, the Gators have placed 10th, 14th, 5th, 24th, and 16th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. However, they have never ranked higher than 25th offensively, due to an inordinate amount of sloppy shot-chucking. The defense should again return to that top 10 status--Nembhard, Lewis, and Johnson will be the scourge of opposing playmakers in the SEC--but if White can't get it to click with this much talent on offense, his seat may get a little warm. Not like sauna-temperature warm, more like car seat-heater warm. But warm, nonetheless. 3. Kentucky In a post I wrote in June, I noted the resemblance between this year's Duke and Kentucky teams. Both will rely heavily upon shooting-averse, defensive-minded point guards: for Duke, sophomore Tre Jones; for Kentucky, sophomore Ashton Hagans. Both will also reload their rosters with esteemed recruiting classes: for Duke, 3rd in the nation; for Kentucky, 2nd in the nation. And finally, both will deal with all the uncertainties that accompany those highly-ranked freshmen--how they will adjust to the pace of the college game? How they will respond to not living up to expectations? Etc. etc. So with all these commonalities, why am I higher on the Cats? For one, I think John Calipari did a better job of surrounding his point guard with talent than his Hall of Fame counterpart did. The Kentucky backcourt thirsts for a scoring punch, and freshman Tyrese Maxey out of Garland, TX, will supply it. Maxey bears some key similarities to former Wildcat/current Denver Nugget Jamal Murray. Calipari will unleash him to wreak havoc off the dribble, and he'll also utilize him as a movement shooter off of flares and pindowns. With Maxey handling the bulk of the bucket-getting, Hagans can focus more on his strengths: setting up his teammates, Usain Bolting past dudes on the fast break, and of course, dogging opposing guards every minute he's on the floor. In the column I linked in the first paragraph, I touched on the profiles of Kentucky's other freshmen. Since then, I've only watched the highlights from the Cats' exhibition games, but Kahlil Whitney and Keion Brooks have impressed me the most. Preseason contests make for a tricky read on a team, but Whitney looked crafty with the ball in his hands, and he also knocked down some threes. If he, Hagans, and Maxey can all grab-and-go, Kentucky will annihilate their foes in transition. Brooks lived up to his billing as a beastly "power wing" who eats up the offensive glass--an ever important factor if the Cats hopes to replicate their offensive rebounding numbers from a year ago. They grabbed 36.8% of their own misses, good for 8th in the country. In the frontcourt, Calipari returns junior Nick Richards and sophomore EJ Montgomery. I've watched a lot of Kentucky games the last two years, but I can't really tell you what Nick Richards does well--so I did some research, and I was surprised to see that he led his team in both offensive rebounding rate and block rate in 2018-19, per Bart Torvik. However, he will never produce many points out of the post, so that's where Montgomery can step up. A former top 10 recruit, Montgomery struggled adjusting to the physicality of the D1 game; often tossed around by more brawny bigs, he never really gained his footing. But entering just his second year of college ball, I think Montgomery can still unlock the potential that merited those five stars by his name. But perhaps the most intriguing frontcourt option comes to Lexington by way of Bucknell University. Grad-transfer Nate Sestina has evoked awe from his coaching staff this offseason, garnering headlines that gush over his confidence and leadership. I admit, when you survey Coach Cal's illustrious list of big men--Boogie Cousins, Anthony Davis, Julius Randle, Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns, Bam Adebayo, Reid Travis, and PJ Washington, to name a few--a former Patriot League player doesn't exactly fit the mold. Though I initially viewed Sestina with skepticism, his highlights from their scrimmage against Kentucky State made me a fan. I like a big man that can step out and hit threes. I love a big man that has the unashamed brashness to celebrate against a D2 team. A final thought on Kentucky versus Duke or any other one-and-done-reliant teams: for all the scrutiny aimed at Calipari for his in-game X's and O's, he is phenomenal at coaching defense. By springtime, the Cats always guard the ball with the utmost discipline, not falling for hesitations or head fakes. With a flurry of pressure and traps, Kentucky can flummox even the most competent offenses. Good defense and good guard play give way to success in March. Big Blue lacks in neither department. 2. Kansas The early fall yielded Kansas a notice of allegations, a bizarre Snoop Dogg controversy, and Bill Self's not-so-subtle flex on the NCAA. With all of the off-the-court storylines, one may easily forget just how good the actual basketball team is. After a hand injury kept him out for most of last season, senior big man Udoka "Big Dok" Azubuike returns to the court, ready to captain the Jayhawks. In Dok's last healthy season (2017-18), he placed in the 100th percentile of effective field goal percentage, which underlines his sheer dominance near the basket. Out of his 274 shot attempts in 2018, 213 came at the rim, and 132 were dunks. He's an automatic easy look. At full strength, nary a post player can match up with the 7 foot, 280 pound Azubuike--he's too skilled and too big. Defensively, he possesses some of the best shot-blocking ability in the country--so he makes your average 6'9" to 6'10" forward look like a child on both sides of the ball. Redshirt sophomore Silvio De Sousa runs next to Dok in the frontcourt, and Kansas fans anticipate an enormous year from him. De Sousa also missed all of 2019, due to questions surrounding his eligibility. Regarding his game, I'm not quite sure what to make of him just yet. While he flashed the attributes of a topflight rim-runner--he dunked literally every lob thrown his way--he played just 8 minutes per game and bumbled around on defense his freshman year. I think he can blossom into a dependable role player, but I see him averaging something like 8 points and 5 boards. The frontcourt will still buoy the Jayhawks at times; however, I'm much more bullish on their perimeter unit. Sophomore wing Ochai Agbaji seemingly materialized into a quality piece overnight. An elite off-ball cutter, Agabji dazzled Kansas fans every time he went back door to catch an alley-oop.
Though he shot the ball inconsistently as a freshman, he periodically erupted for larger scoring outbursts (24 points against Texas, 23 against Oklahoma State, and 20 against TCU). The next step of his development includes sustaining that type of play. Junior guard Marcus Garrett, generally deemed by coaches and media as the best perimeter defender in the Big 12, may not even start, due to the presence of Iowa transfer Isaiah Moss. Known as a three-point marksman, Moss once scored 19 points in 96 seconds for the Hawkeyes (albeit in a loss) (I watched that whole highlight video and thought he was going to hit a buzzer beater to win it) (also, apologies for how unbearable those Big Ten announcers are and for the laughably bad editing). Agbaji, Garret, and Moss will all contribute--but sophomore point guard Devon Dotson serves as the pistons that propel Kansas's engine. Considering his five-star pedigree, some may look at his stats and assume he disappointed last season. However, Kansas' tumultuous 2019 saw players leaving the program midseason and a gush of ill-timed injuries--although his offensive rating dipped some in conference play, I'd say he adjusted pretty well for a freshman. A quick-twitch first steps helps Dotson rocket past defenders en route to the rim. Some concerns abound regarding his jump shot, but I think he will put those to rest this season. The 6'2" Charlottean (shout out to Providence Day, my wife's alma mater) will build upon Lawrence's legacy of lead guards this season. 1. Michigan State I wish I could zig from the consensus—but the Spartans' makeup looks to be that of a clear-cut favorite. Michigan State’s roster amalgamates blue chippers with experienced veterans, and one finds it tough to identify many flaws. In addition, a 2019 Final Four rejuvenated Tom Izzo after a couple disappointing seasons. Regarding his players, Cassius Winston alone justifies Sparty’s number 1 ranking. The senior point guard returns to school after notching First Team All-American accolades a season ago. Under Izzo, Michigan State has typically eradicated their foes in transition. And as the nation’s best passer, Winston rewards his teammates for running the floor, delivering perfect ball placement on the fast break. Even if opponents force them to operate in the half-court, he still flourishes. In Izzo's motion offense, the pick-and-roll maestro carves up defenses with meticulousness akin to that of Walter White when he’s "working" in Jesse's RV. Winston facilitates the offense at an unmatched level--his assist rate ranked third nationally, and he dished out 7.5 assists per contest last year. Be he's not just a one-dimensional, pass-first point guard; he scores on three-pointers and a lethal floater, and he averaged 18.8 points a game in 2018-19. The dude is absurd. Junior Xavier Tillman runs as Cassius's copilot, setting his screens and catching his lobs. Despite only starting 14 games last season, Tillman increased his scoring output from 2.8 points per game as a freshman to 10 per game as a sophomore. His rebounding numbers followed suit, soaring from 2.6 to 7.3. Tillman shined in the tournament, in particular, bumping that scoring average up to almost 14 over Michigan State's Final Four run. As a fierce rim protector, Tillman placed in the 99th percentile in block percentage, per Bart Torvik, and his expertise in that realm helped Sparty rank 9th nationally in defensive efficiency on KenPom. Plus, Izzo, like the aforementioned Roy Williams, knows how to develop big men. If Michigan State lives up to their #1 ranking, I think Tillman has a shot at making an All-American team. Aside from Winston and Tillman, Izzo will call upon his sophomores to round out his rotation. At least one out Thomas Kithier, Marcus Bingham, and Gabe Brown should have a Tillman-like spike in production; and most sports outlets have tabbed wing Aaron Henry as a breakout darling. The hyper-athletic lefty enthralled Spartans' fans with his tantalizing 20-point, 6-rebound performance against LSU in the Sweet 16. Already a steady defender, Henry could evolve into one of the top wing-stoppers in the Big Ten. Lastly, I want to give some attention to freshman Rocket Watts. The 6'2" guard may be summoned into the starting lineup due to the chronic foot injury of senior Josh Langford. As a guard who's wired to score, Watts will increase the Spartans' three-point percentage and can spell Cassius whenever he needs a breather. Also his name is Rocket, which is fun. A Big Ten team hasn't won the national title since 2000, when the nets got cut by...Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans. With a loaded roster and the preseason favorite for National Player of the Year, could this be their destiny to end the drought?
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June 2021
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